dave mcbride

You're fixating on draft position, which isn't relevant. Stevie Johnson was way better than a seventh rounder, and Fred Jackson was a bona fide good player. Fitz was and is better than what we have.

Watson this year is at least average. He's not even having a bad season. He's on pace for over 4,300+ yards, 23 TDs, 470 yards rushing, and 8.0 ypa.

No, the Bills' talent under Gailey was actually far, far superior to what we have now. I think many people simply don't realize the historic badness of the Bills' offensive talent right now. It's unprecedented.

They don't have the personnel to run any scheme well because the talent across the board is so terrible (and even more so if McCoy is traded, which i think is more likely than not).

He has no players. Seriously. Oftentimes, the Bills have had bad coordinators and it's not difficult to see. This time it's really impossible to judge. He is working with the worst receiving corps in the league by a mile, a terrible line, Derek Freaking Anderson, and an unimpressive cast of RBs given McCoy's injuries. SF has way better talent. I can't believe I'm saying this, but CJ Beathard is a superstar compared to the mooks we have playing qb now. Um ... that doesn't work in the NFL. The Bills don't even have the personnel to run it well anyway.

If he had won the ownership bidding, it's extremely unlikely he would have run for president.

He's actually 11-12 excluding the playoffs.

I thought it was freaking obvious that he suffered a nasty concussion on that play and was incredulous that the announcers were focusing on his ankle given the nastiness of the head hit. Terrible thread idea.

False. He made a huge deep throw against TB late that effectively helped them win the game. The throw to a stumbling Zay Jones (who failed at his route too) against Carolina was a perfect read and throw too. Too bad the receiver messed it up. It would have been a game winner.

Plus there's the gallows humor element, which can't be dismissed. For instance, the Bills are currently on pace to field the worst offense in DVOA history (going back to 1986). That would be something.

Is it just me, or does Thomas have a clause in his contract that requires to drop at least one pass every game??

Agreed.

I know where you stand on this, Bill, but it is the case that the best Bills draftee of this century was part of that 2006 class. I don't really care when he was drafted either; what matters is that he was.

Speaking of DVOA: 'In particular, Arizona plummeted on offense, from -31.3% to -39.9%. That puts the Cardinals into rare territory as one of the ten worst offenses we've ever tracked through seven games. But the Cardinals still can't even come close to the impotence of the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo's offensive DVOA stayed relatively constant after the Indianapolis blowout, going from -53.4% to -53.2%. But most of the worst offenses we've ever tracked weren't staying constant around Week 7 -- they were starting to come back from their horrendous starts, slowly improving their ratings. Which means that the 2018 Buffalo Bills are now the worst offense in DVOA history, at least through seven games.' https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2018/week-7-dvoa-ratings

As of now, Football Outsiders' metrics place it as the worst offense EVER according to their DVOA metric, which admittedly only applies back to 1986: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2018/week-7-dvoa-ratings . 'In particular, Arizona plummeted on offense, from -31.3% to -39.9%. That puts the Cardinals into rare territory as one of the ten worst offenses we've ever tracked through seven games. But the Cardinals still can't even come close to the impotence of the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo's offensive DVOA stayed relatively constant after the Indianapolis blowout, going from -53.4% to -53.2%. But most of the worst offenses we've ever tracked weren't staying constant around Week 7 -- they were starting to come back from their horrendous starts, slowly improving their ratings. Which means that the 2018 Buffalo Bills are now the worst offense in DVOA history, at least through seven games.' Everything on this offense is terrible (see my post above). With regard to the o-line, I'll simply say that in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. That's the o-line relative to the other units.

I was unaware of this. OMG. This will live on in infamy!!!

The other thing to factor in - the toxic culture that Gruden is breeding that lets this sort of thing fester. I have a hunch that's part of what's going on.

Crynig is not a sign of a lack of mental toughness. Sheesh.

Gruden was a great coach in Oakland who turned that franchise around. That happened before he went to TB. The comparison isn't apt.

I think you're confusing me with hardcore defenders of the regime. I have made plenty of criticisms of their decisions, but I also think that next year is the year they always had lined up as the one where they took a major step forward. In any event, it'll all come down to Allen and the complementary pieces they assemble for him. I'm not worried about the D; it's always going to be at least decent with McDermott running the show. It is way too early to pass judgment on Allen, of course. It's worth noting that Wyoming won 8 games with him in the two seasons he started there; they won 2 the year before he started and are on the road to 2 wins this year too.

This offseason is huge, no doubt. There may have been five-year plans in the USSR, but there are no five-year plans in the NFL. Next season is year 3 of what should be a 3-year plan (4 years max). They have to nail it. To give them the benefit of the doubt a little, they have set themselves up pretty well in terms of draft capital and FA. I don't like the fact that they only have one pick each in the first three rounds, but they will probably be able to move back a little in the first (there are always qb-desperate teams) and pick up another second/third. The Colts' moves last year represent a good model, and their draft picks that they got from the Jets trade are good players. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/2018_draft.htm

Daboll is not the problem with this offense. Bill Walsh himself would struggle to generate 10 points with this talent.

I can't disagree with this at all. I guess my only rejoinder is that aside from Zay Jones, the guys they acquired were always intended to be time servers until they went in big on the offense. Bear in mind that Matthews and Benjamin were either at the end of or near the end of their contracts. I doubt they would have traded for Benjamin if not for the improbable fact that they found themselves a playoff contender halfway through last season.

I think a couple of things happened. 1) They got the QB they wanted, who is probably the closest comparable to Cam Newton in the league in terms of skill set. 2) McDermott misjudged on Zay Jones. They thought he was a potential difference maker and he isn't (so far). A lot of teams liked him coming out too; the Bills weren't alone. It happens. 3) Wood and Incognito retiring were unexpected moves that had negative knock-on effects. As @BADOLBILZ has said numerous times, the FA market for o-linemen last season was dreadful. The Bills' line is terrible, but there are a lot of shaky o-lines out there and the available talent pool is really, really thin. 4) FA signings/trade acquisitions like McCarron, Matthews, and Benjamin didn't work out. That's on them. I'm sure they're aware of that. Both Matthews and Benjamin had been productive elsewhere, but they both flailed here. Regardless, the plan was always going to be a tear-down/rebuild of the offense. Moreover the plan was also always to upgrade the personnel on D (which they did, to their credit) and get the big-time high-ceiling QB (and please, let's not pass any judgment on him yet) before filling out the offense. My larger point is that these guys are clearly not stupid. They made some miscalculations on talent, but I'm quite sure they see Pittsburgh's offense from 2017 (with a 6'5" QB who can sling it) as a model, not Pittsburgh's offense from 1976, when they had two 1,000-yard rushers. That premise is just wrong.

McDermott coached in the NFC South for years, and it's a division loaded with good offenses and coaches like Payton. He also coached under Andy Reid, who he regards as his mentor. You should also assume that McDermott is highly aware that the Panthers finished in the top 10 in offensive DVOA in 2013 and 2015 (playoff/super bowls seasons), and in the 20s in the years they missed the playoffs (2014 and 2016). Indeed, Carolina finished 1st in points in 2015. He knows that it's the way to win, but at present he can't do it because of the personnel. I fully expect that the Bills will go all in on acquiring offensive talent next off-season. That is the only way to run a higher-octane offense, and he's smart enough to know that. In other words, I fundamentally disagree with the premise of the post.