dave mcbride

The thing I'd worry about if I'm worried about culture is appearing to favor one of your guys who starts every game, gets paid a LOT of money, but makes absolutely no plays. He literally hasn't done anything this season in the playmaking dept., and he did virtually nothing last season either. As a baseline, the NFL players on the field are there because of their ability to make plays. Lotuleilei has 3 tackles, 3 assists, no TFLs, no pressures, and no sacks through 6 games, and he has started all of them. And it's not just the numbers -- he's basically a barely visible and slowly moving slab of flesh in the middle of the TV screen on virtually every play. He's not disruptive at all.

To be clear, I am not opposed to taking a flyer on Gordon. I just don't think that the Bills' organization is likely to do so.

Yeah, when he wins yet another SB MVP on a 15-1 team we'll still be talking about his decline. Watch the games and the players around him. He hasn't changed; the other players have. FWIW, he threw a ball at 61 mph this offseason, which is elite: https://www.masslive.com/patriots/2019/06/tom-bradys-arm-appears-to-be-in-peak-form-patriots-qb-posts-photo-of-radar-gun-at-61-mph.html. I'm not saying that he's not trying to score; I'm saying that he's not forcing things in close-call plays because he doesn't have too.

I think he throws a ton of them away. I honestly think he's playing cautiously because the defense is so dominant. When he needs to make plays, he does (particularly early in games).

That's just not true. His arm is the same as it was in 2017, when he was 40 and arguably the best QB in the league. I watch a lot of Pats' games. Their issue right now is not him; it's the lack of NFL-level TE (until this past Monday) and injuries/retirements in their core blocking group (o-line/TE/FB) that have made them into a 3.3 ypc team in the run game (they were 4.3 last season). Brady is averaging 7.3 ypa and a 66 percent completion rate.

I'll trust the GOAT's opinion on this. His arm looks fine anyway.

They traded a second rounder AFTER they determined they didn't want him! That's why they made the trade in the first place! Also, Brady has been complaining that the WRs don't know the routes. You think Harry, who was on the shelf for a while, is ready to know the full offense for the stretch run?

That is true, but if he clears waivers - which is the most likely outcome because teams do NOT want to be on the hook for his full contract if he flakes out - then my scenario is operative.

I think you're just wrong, and anyway, has he overcome them? What happened late last season? Why is a such WR-deficient team effectively cutting him now?

I disagree, but we shall see. I also suspect that Beane/McDermott want nothing to do with a player who has had so many personal problems and who failed his team last season during the stretch run. But there's another thing you have to ask yourself: why did a very smart organization with such issues on their pass offense dump him? Who was the last NE player who was effectively cut mid-season who exceeded expectations elsewhere?

? - i don't understand your post. Which 12 individuals are you referring to?

That's the thing. Gordon is going to have options. I can't imagine the Bills will be high on his list -- i mean, i have to think he's had his fill of Lake Erie-adjacent snowbelt cities.

Are you ready to put that on your tombstone? Because it's sheer madness for them to not trade him. They're going to be getting a pick at around the 97 slot and nothing else for him, and that team is going to lose a minimum of 12 games this year.

How about multiple year-long suspensions and a long excused absence during a stretch run? You've gotta do better than that.

The Bills said they weren't trading Shady. It'd be crazy for the Bengals to NOT trade him. I mean, that's bonkers. I mean, it's football 101 to know you can't trust what teams say about a players trade-ability. Anyway, a starting WR corps of Green, Brown, and Beasley would be a fricking great group - a player for every level. A fast, tall, elite athlete who can high point and catch the 50/50 throws. A burner with good hands, excellent quicks, and good route running. And a slot guy with great short area quickness who gets open.

No mystery! I've said it elsewhere - AJ Green is my guy. I love him and think he's probably healthy. Obviously, I don't know for sure, but he had an ankle issue, and those don't last 4 months.

read the thread about the Tim Graham interview. Beane says they are looking for a culture fit. They kept Zay because they spent a high second on him.

I want to trade before the trade deadline. Not after. Getting someone sooner is better anyway - there's a time dimension to consider that brings in the law of diminishing returns. Getting that player up to speed in our complicated offense takes time, and there's 10 games to play. The Bills need to win most of those.

He may be the nicest guy in the world, but just last season he failed to fulfill his obligations because of personal problems and wasn't there for the SB run when the offense needed him. I have nothing against him; I just think that the Bills as an organization tend to steer clear of these folks. Building a particular type of "culture" necessarily means putting a fence around it to keep certain types out. He was a nobody -- a CFL flier picked up in the summer for whom they had no expectations. Not remotely comparable to competing against other NFL teams in the midst of a playoff run. As for AB, I think that if anything, they're going to be more gun-shy about problem players after that circus. Note that they jettisoned the one guy with some personal issues (Zay). Of course, he's not any good either.

You need to consider the opportunity cost though. I'd rather that they focus on trading a pick or picks for a more sure thing than Gordon. He's not gonna want to come to Buffalo anyway, I suspect. If Buffalo -- a team that's allergic to head cases -- is interested, that basically means that others will be too.

I can't imagine the Bills being in on him. The chance that he ends up being a headache/problem is 50 percent at least.

Gase is just awful. Such a bad leader of men. I will be surprised if he lasts past this season. There are already rumors that he's not a Darnold guy (and actually, he apparently loved Allen coming out), and at the end of the day, Darnold is more important to that team's future than Gase.

The Bengals will get a late 3rd round pick if they simply let him walk -- because he's a FA!! There is no contract to take on because you're only paying for half a season with no bonus--that's it. Sanders has actually had a shockingly good career.

Good post. What I think that the system really doesn't really account for is coaching acumen in close games (and there are always a lot of close games -- just ask Belichick). A really good team can dominate most games and still go 8-8. I don't think that who wins close games in the aggregate comes down to a series of coin flips (in the probabilistic sense). For instance, the 2017 Bills were a bad team talent wise and still went 9-7 because they were situationally good in a lot of close games while getting blown in games in which they were overmatched. I even think that their record last year was a product of coaching because in reality they could have easily been a 3-13 team given the abysmal talent on offense. In contrast, Dan Quinn (for instance) has overseen some excellent teams in terms of talent and never gotten beyond 11-5 (plus he lost to an overmatched Bills team in 2017 by blowing a playcall near the goal line late -- the Bills only had 10 men on the field and he decided to pass it on a fairly easy run play). Atlanta has lost a bunch of close games in the past couple of seasons, and I think any reasonable observer would say that they probably have had more talent than the Bills. That has to be on coaching. Indeed, losing to NE in a game they had in the bag in the SB says it all. Passing from the 20 yard line instead of running and settling for a FG that would have won the game (and with a kicker who was perfect up to that point) was a TERRIBLE decision. Another example: SD handing it off last week to Melvin Gordon on the final play after he fumbled and recovered it the previous play (nullifying a TD). He then fumbles it AGAIN and possibly loses it (TN got the call, but it was murky), but even if he hadn't fumbled it, he hadn't gotten in, and since they were out of timeouts,the game would have ended despite there being about 20-25 seconds on the clock when the play started. You have got to try a couple of passes there and only run for it when that fails. It'll give you three shots instead of one, which increases your odds of actually punching it in. And moreover, handing it off to a guy who was shaky on the previous play probably wasn't wise. SD was the better team in that game, and they lost. With regard to the Bills this season, I do think he's sort of right about the flukiness of the kicking, but then again the Jets' coaching staff made an organizational decision to let a solid kicker go before the season began and settle for a bad one. The TN game was genuinely fluky, though, because Santos had been a decent kicker.

This story is about as Jets-y as it can get. https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/10/23/sam-darnold-jets-patriots-ghost-game-butt-fumble