dave mcbride

I really like his upside. The talent is real.

Once again, with real picks. Same as before, but trading, say, the 23rd pick for a couple of seconds or a second and two thirds (or something like that). I'm not hung up on having a first next year if Green can help us win a freaking playoff game. Of course, this probably won't happen. If I'm GB, I'm besting whatever the Bills have to offer. They're that close.

Doh! Yes, of course. Too many years of drafting between 9 and 12 has done that to me!

For those who don't like Schatz, you'll love this quote! http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2019/week-7-dvoa-ratings Combine all three phases of the game, and the Bills hold steady at No. 21 in the DVOA ratings. That's not where we normally find a 5-1 team. How bad is it? The Bills are officially the worst 5-1 team in DVOA history. I addressed Buffalo's playoff odds a couple weeks ago in the DVOA commentary, but let's talk about how they've managed to go 5-1 despite such a poor DVOA rating. First, the schedule. Only New England has played an easier schedule so far, and only New England plays an easier schedule over the course of the entire season. (Based on current ratings, the Patriots and Bills are projected to play two of the five easiest schedules we've ever tracked.) Second, for some reason opposing kickers seem totally unable to kick against the Bills this year. Bills opponents are 2-of-8 on field goals, with only one of those blocked by the Bills. They've also missed two extra points. Two of their wins, over the Jets and Titans, can be directly tied to missed kicks by the other team. I thought I would go back and look at the previous worst 5-1 teams by DVOA. They're interesting because two of them eventually made it to the Super Bowl. WORST 5-1 TEAMS BY DVOA, 1986-2019 Year Team DVOA Rk Final W-L Final DVOA Final Rk Playoffs 2019 BUF -5.4% 21 -- -- -- -- 1991 DET -2.2% 16 12-4 -1.2% 17 Won division, lost AFC CG 1998 ATL -1.9% 18 14-2 18.8% 7 Won division, lost SB 2015 ATL -1.6% 14 8-8 -16.3% 26 No 2003 CAR 0.1% 18 11-5 0.6% 16 Won division, lost SB 1987 SD 0.2% 16 5-7 (8-7) -19.7% 25 No 1996 IND 0.5% 18 9-7 -12.2% 22 Wild card, lost WC 2014 ARI 0.6% 15 11-5 -6.4% 22 Wild card, lost WC 1987 MIN 4.4% 13 8-4 (8-7) 1.3% 12 Wild card, lost NFC CG 2004 MIN 4.9% 11 8-8 -8.1% 20 Wild card, lost DIV 2011 DET 4.9% 15 10-6 10.1% 11 Wild card, lost WC 1988 NO 5.2% 12 10-6 4.1% 12 No The most interesting team here is the 1998 Atlanta Falcons. That Falcons start was in some ways similar to this Bills start. The first six 1998 Falcons opponents had an average DVOA of -17.4% after Week 7, the easiest schedule in the league that year. There was nobody as bad as this year's Dolphins, but that included the No. 26 Saints, the No. 29 Eagles, and two games against the No. 27 Panthers. The only good team the Falcons played early was San Francisco, which ranked No. 5 after seven weeks. That was also Atlanta's only loss. Those 1998 Falcons aso had a kooky game with the Panthers in Week 5 in which they were outgained on average, 6.1 yards to 4.8 yards, and yet they won 51-23. Both teams threw two interceptions but Carolina also fumbled five times, and lost four of them. Atlanta only fumbled once, and recovered their own fumble. Through six games, the Falcons were gaining 5.4 yards per play and giving up 5.6 yards per play. Then they got slaughtered by the Jets, 28-3 in Week 8. After that, they turned things on. From Week 9 until the end of the season, the Falcons gained 6.2 yards per play and gave up only 4.6 yards per play. Atlanta's total DVOA from Week 9 onwards was 37.9%. So while the Falcons' 5-1 start was similar to the 2019 Bills' 5-1 start, it's unlikely the Bills will suddenly become one of the league's best teams and go 9-1 over their final ten games. Taking advantage of an easy schedule is a general trend here. For example, the 1991 Lions ranked 24th out of 28 teams in schedule strength after six games which is kind of crazy since they started the season with a 45-0 loss to the best team in DVOA history, the 1991 Washington Redskins. But their other early opponents ranked 17, 22, 23, 25, and 28 as of Week 6. The 2015 Falcons were 24th in schedule after Week 6. They also were similar to Buffalo in that opponents had terrible luck on field goals. 2015 Falcons opponents were 6-of-11 on field goals through Week 6, with all those misses coming indoors. The 2003 Panthers were a little different. Unlike these other teams, Carolina didn't take advantage of an easy schedule. At least, they didn't in the early part of the year. Carolina ranked tenth in schedule strength after six games, but dead last in future schedule strength, which helps explain why they kept winning all year despite having a DVOA that hovered near 0.0%. Carolina's 5-1 start included four wins by less than a touchdown including two in overtime. By the end of the season, they ended up finishing 9-3 in one-score games. The 1998 Falcons are obviously a huge outlier, but most of these teams didn't get much better over the course of the season. Yet many of them made the playoffs thanks to their 5-1 starts. And the Bills might too.

I was about to say that the Chargers are still in it given a weak AFC and the fact that they're better than their record, but in their next 9 games, they face GB, Chicago, Minnesota, and KC twice. They get a late third (around pick 100) if they let him walk. If they trade him, they'll get more than that.

Just thinking out loud here: the Bills have a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 2 5ths, and 3 6ths next year (9 picks in all). Let's assume for a second that the Bills pick between 9-12 (WC team). I'd consider trading a 2nd, a 5th, and a 6th for him with the expectation that you can move that ~10 overall pick for a late first and a late second. There are always teams that want to move up. That's a plausible outcome, and still leaves the Bills with 7 picks and one in every round except 7.

My hunch is that he's basically fine right now and not playing because the Bengals really are trying to get a haul for him. His contract ends at the end of this season, and he is NOT going to re-sign with Cincy. It's basically move him now for a really good pick or two or hang on to him and get a late third for him in the next draft. I can't think they're that dumb to not move him.

If I were GB, I'd trade a 2nd and 3rd for Green (and possibly a first only). They are really good this season, and in my opinion one elite receiver away from being unstoppable on offense. With Rodgers, it's all about winning a SB NOW. You don't think about next year.

A low third. They can do better than that, though, provided he's healthy. He's an elite player still.

It's a dereliction of duty for the Bengals to not move him, but they're a bad organization, so who knows?

Absolutely. He's a really talented player.

I thought Allen played well in the second half. Don't get me wrong. But on that play, there isn't a Dolphins defender within 5 yards of McKenzie between the 15 and 5 yard lines, and it only becomes tight after he passes the 2 yard line. It was a bad play by Allen. It happens. Hopefully next time when presented with the same situation, he'll get rid of it on time.

6 catches on 7 targets for 80 yards and a TD with Tannehill throwing to him this past Sunday. I doubt he gets moved; TN has a solid shot at winning that division (as does every other team in the AFC central).

The Bills have played the Eagles once since 2012 (in 2015)! The Eagles won that game.

Disagree - he should have thrown that way sooner. Mckenzie is looking for the ball at the 18 yard line and Allen simply doesn't pull the trigger. That's an easy TD throw he didn't make. Also, you're not an excuse maker! What gives? He starts looking for the ball at around the 18 yard line. What you say isn't true.

Julio just signed a big contract, and they traded Sanu. The Falcons still have a lot of talent, and they could easily bounce back to 10-11 wins next season. I don't think they're trading him.

The Jags are definitely still in it. I don't think anyone in that division is winning more than 10 games, and I also think that a terrible AFC means that it's very possible a 9-win team gets a WC slot.

Yeah, I know that, but does anyone have any info on what's really going right now? I assume he's hurt and simply not able to perform at 100 percent, and if his speed game isn't there, he's not much use. But I don't really know.

Does anyone have a good idea about what's really going on with Foster? He was so good (relative to what anyone could have expected) last season, and given Allen's deep throwing this season, I can only conclude that he was sporting some sort of homing beacon for Allen's deep balls last year.

Gesicki is part of their future, not their past. He's one of the guys they've gotta build around.

It would be awesome. Unfortunately, the Bills do have some tough games coming up, so I’m not all that hopeful this will happen. But who knows?

That would be me. I am not a homer.

It wasn’t a fg in the sense of a kick with any degree of difficulty; it was a glorified extra point attempt. And I bet you that just about all of the tiny handful of missed xps in the last few years of the old system came on shanks and botched snaps, not blocks.

With "maybe," I thought you were implicitly questioning my claim that he wasn't saying they were bad or mediocre. He clearly likes the Bills defense (just as his system hated it under Rex). I wasn't commenting on your skepticism about DVOA.

Come on. His system had the Bills D as the second best in the league last year, and currently has them rated as #3. That system factors in level of competition. the problem with this logic is that the Pats' schedule is even easier.