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It appears Leonard Johnson does count against us as a FA signed in the compensatory pick formula since he has 4 years of accrued service in the NFL: http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/ Does anyone know what happens if a player is cut & doesn't make the opening day roster. For example if Johnson was cut prior to week 1, I would hope he wouldn't count as a FA addition since he never made the roster, but I don't know how it works which is why I ask.

In Vegas the over/under on the Bills will be 7 or 7.5. If it's 7 the vig will be heavier if you want to bet the over If it' 7.5 the vig will be slightly heavier on the under There schedule looks tough on paper this season w/ the NFC South and the AFC West, so I think the initial line will come in at 7.

Kd cannon has too much game to go in the 6th, imo. Hed be a steal, that late. I think hes going to be a contributor in thr NFL

I think the Bills will have a terrific prospect that "falls" to #10. Marshon Lattimore Jamal Adams Rueben Foster Malik Hooker Corey Davis I wouldn't be upset with any of them. I don't buy the interest in O.J. Howard. I think that was likely put out by the Bills as an early rumor. I have a sneaky feeling the Bills love Corey Davis and their need for a legit WR is probably the biggest hole on the roster. Imagine a season where Sammy Watkins gets knicked up and has to miss a month. Our WR group with him is pretty bad, without him it'd be historically bad. I really like the odds of Corey Davis being the guy at #10, because I think he'll still be on the board. There are so many good, fast, athletic CB's and S's in this draft I kind of think it makes more sense to get Corey Davis w/ the #1 and solidify our WR group and then come back with our 2nd pick and get a guy in the secondary that can come in a compete for major playing time. BTW I love the CB/FS out of Washington, Kevin King. He had one of the most impressive combines I've seen. Tall, fast, quick, long arms........he'd be a great chess piece in a pass happy league. Funny too, because this guy was in absolutely no mock drafts at all & now I see him starting to pop up in some 1st round mocks, still hoping there's a chance he's there at #42.

Can you imagine the horror of getting a free 3rd and 4th round pick? What kind of dumb team would want that right?

I never say no to a QB. Tyrod is an average, bridge type QB. And until we find a really good signal caller the fortunes of the Bills will not change. So if they think there's a QB that can be that guy I would never complain. I didn't like E.J. as a prospect, but I never complained about the pick because I'll never complain about taking chances on QB's, it's so damn important. For what it's worth, I think DeShaun Watson has a chance to be the "guy", but it'd take the commitment of the entire organization to build an offense around his skill set, and interestingly I think that offense looks similar to the one you have to build for Tyrod to be at his best. That's why I don't think the door is closed on Watson at #10. He's a risk (question his accuracy, which is so important), but QB is the one position I'm okay with taking a risk on with 1st round picks. With that said if they don't like any of the QB's, I think WR is by far the biggest need. I love Corey Davis and would be thrilled with him at #10. John Ross's medical (he's knicked up a lot) has me concerned & I wouldn't take him at #10 for that reason. Although his skill set is nice. I know it's against the grain, but I'm not a fan of Mike Williams. He's too slow. His best trait is being big & those WR's have a higher rate of disappointing in the NFL.

Just figured I'd correct the record too. Jerome Felton will not count as a UFA lost for us if he signs elsewhere. Long story short, players that are released than brought back on 1 year deals (like what happened to Felton last year at the start of the season) do not count as lost UFA in the compensatory pick formula. I've read and double re-read all the comp. pick rules on overthecap.com, and that's why I know that. For those that don't believe me or for those who'd like a better understanding of all the complexities of the comp. pick formula, knock yourself out: http://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/ It's a detailed read, but very informative w/ exactly how it works & their are plenty of FO's around the league that put the emphasis on both understanding and executing the acquisition of compensatory draft picks.

Are you certain about this? This was the first ? I had when he signed. Because he only has 3 seasons accrued I believe your right. I think you need to have a 4 seasons to technically be considered a UFA.

Great points. It appears most on this forum think comp. picks are just some lucky after thought, but your point about the Patriots actually creating additional comp. picks through trading for expiring contracts is a great one. Just look at what they did with Martellus Bennett. Traded a 4th rounder for Bennett and a 6th rounder. Get a solid year of production out of him, let another team sign him for good $$$ and then get a 4th round compensatory draft pick the following year for losing him. Brilliant! It literally cost them nothing. And they have just done the very same thing with Dwayne Allen. And guess what? They will get good production out of him in '17 & then let some other team overpay for likely his best statistical year as a result of playing with Brady, and then get a 4th round comp pick for losing him.

To settle the debate for the posters who are either too ignorant or stubborn to understand the value of what we are giving up by signing some of these low end starters and backup UFA's let me ask you this? How many teams do you think would offer us a 2018 3rd or 4th round pick in a trade for any of the following players: Jordan Poyer, Vlad DuCasse, Patrick DiMarco, or Stephen Hauschka? Because if we lose out on either one of those comp. picks that's what Doug Whaley will have done, which would be a total failure to properly assess value. Imagine if Doug Whaley traded Vlad DuCasse tomorrow to the Vikings for a 2018 4th round pick. This entire board including myself would applaud him for pulling off a heist. You mean we get a free 4th next year & can still sign some bum who's probably better than Vlad Ducasse after June 1? Amazing. Yet if I point out the exact opposite, which as of today could very well happen, and we essentially give up a 4th round pick for signing Vlad DuCasse I'm criticized for criticizing the Bills. Makes no sense. Would you rather have Corey Graham and a 2018 3rd round pick or Jordan Poyer? Would you rather have a backup G that was cut or signed after June 1 & a 3rd round pick or Vlad Ducasse? Would you rather have Jerome Felton & a 2018 3rd round pick or Patrick Dimarco? These will all be legitimate ?'s if the Bills FO blows their opportunity to secure both the 3rd and 4th round compensatory picks.

You wanna make a personal side bet with me that the Bills don't get a 3rd and 4th round compensatory pick in '18 because they signed too many UFA's? I've seen this type of ineptitude for far too long. And if and when we don't make the playoffs in '17 I'd like you to reassess your blind love of the Bills, prior to the '18 NFL draft, & ask yourself if signing guys like Vlad Ducasse, Jordan Poyer, a kicker & a FB was worth forgoing a 3rd & 4th round pick.

You are absolutely right. That was the point of my original post. It's not by accident that the Patriots will have 2 or 3 comp. picks + realy improve their roster while the Bills are in jeopardy of receiving none while losing a good handful of quality players. This stuff takes some common sense, some planning and then executing that plan, it's apparent to me the Bills do not understand compensatory picks. No. I would sign a backup OG that was either cut or post June 1 or better yet draft one, rather than have Vlad Ducasse cost me a 3rd rounder. Would you be okay if the signing of Vlad Ducasse costs us a 3rd round pick in next years draft? I'd be pretty pissed about that, as I think any Bills fan should be. Let's just hope he doesn't make the team because I believe he might not count against us as an addition if he doesn't make the team. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong on that. That's a a fair point. My main point was to warn that the Bills are playing with fire though by risking losing 2 solid draft picks next year to sign a lot of depth type players. Like all Bills fan, I hope a few more of our UFA's sign elsewhere and we get the 3rd and 4th rd. picks, but that fate is now in other teams hands not ours, and that's risky.

The Bills need to lose 3 more UFA's without signing another one & Jerome Felton doesn't qualify in this formula.....so they need to lose 3, not counting Jerome Felton & not sign another one in order to get the 3rd and 4th comp. picks for losing Gilmore and Woods, respectively. So, yes, things can change, as you pointed out, but the point is the Bills now have to now hold their breath that 3 or 4 of their UFA's get signed elsewhere. Your point is actually false. If the Pats lost Brady as a UFA and signed 1 UFA they would get nothing, even if the player they signed was a backup. You need to have a net loss to pick up comp. picks, so you're wrong on that one. Who cares about draft picks? Yea who the hell cares about having additional ammo to get good players cheap? Who cares about having an additional 3rd and 4th round pick to package with a 1st round pick to go get a QB that can actually lead this team to the playoffs? Yea who the hell cares. It's fun watching a team that consistently wins 6-8 games and has no long term vision. Look, I understand the homer fans and the fans that will defend the Bills no matter what, but the extent to which some of the fanbase just give the Bills a pass each and every year is pretty comical to me.

If I asked you if signing guys like Vladimir Ducasse, Jordan Poyer & a Fulback was worth forgoing a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick in next years draft would any smart GM say yes? Serious question, because that's what the Bills have done. You need to have a net loss of UFA's to lock in comp. picks the Bills have failed to do this. As of now, they have gained one more UFA than they've lost and they don't have many of their own UFA's left to be signed elsewhere. For a team that's no where near ready to compete for championships, to be blowing free draft picks to sign what amounts to depth players is asinine. http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/ There are many ways to work the comp. pick system, something teams ike the Ravens, Patriots and Packers seem to do every yr., yet the Bills are still totally lost. You can use trades, pickup guys that are cut, sign guys post June 1. The NFL has put in place a system that compensates and rewards teams for losing good FA's. This year that happens to be Gilmore (3rd rounder) and Wood (4th rounder), but instead of taking advantage of this system the Bills were in a big rush to sign K's, FB's and backup OL that have essentially cost them those 2 solid draft picks. Now that comp. picks can be traded, they are even more valuable, IMO, which makes this error on the Bills part even more infuriating. Another important and often forgotten part of this is that you can fill in holes on your roster with these comp. picks for very low rookie salaries. So say you use the 3rd and 4th round comp. picks on a FB & an OL instead of Vlad Ducasse and Patrick Dimarco. So, instead of paying veteran FA's $2-$3M per year you pay guys close to the vet min. of 600-700k. That's a significant savings that can be reallocated to other areas of need on the roster. For those that want to make the argument that the rookie pleyers may suck compared to the vets that were brought in via FA......fair point: But, my counter tot hat would be to just keep guys like Felton and Corey Graham then & still pick up the free 3rd and 4th round comp. picks. This is one small aspect to roster building and player management, but it's an important one. And it's one that many of the consistently good teams have figured out how to maneuver......and one the Bills still continually EFF UP.

This kid had what I consider the most impressive combine: https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/kevin-king You assume a tall corner like this will either be not fast or have poor change of direction, but the opposite is true with King. He had one of the best 3 cone drills (I think only Christian McCaffrey did better) and he had the best 20 yard shuttle of any player at any position. He also had a fast 40. I say this all, to basically say this kid can move vertically and horizontally & at 6'3" with long arms and big hands (and good ball skills) I think he's going to be special in the NFL. I'd like his highlight reel to do some talking: Teammates, Sidney Jones and Budda Baker get more attention than King, but, IMO, I like his fit better on this team. McDermott values versatility aand intangibles and in this new D, which runs a lot of zone D I think King can play CB and/or S. I also think he will be available when we pick in the 2nd round. I love the idea of picking up Corey Davis in round 1 and coming back with King in the 2nd round. My favorite scenario would be a trade down to around #20, where we can pick up an additional 2nd round pick. With those 3 picks: 1- DeShaun Watson (keep trying to find that guy), 2- Zay Jones, WR (check out his combine #'s), 2- Kevin King What do you guys think of King, tho? I'm surprised he isn't getting more hype, I really don't see him lasting past the top 60 picks.

Plus if he were to under perform in his job at GM it'd be tough for him to come back to his TV gig as the draft guru. He would lose the respect of viewers if he failed as a GM. Unless the Redskins were offering a ton more money, I think Mayock would be better off financially staying put. He can do what he's doing for another 15-20 years. He's really good at it and the NFL Network knows that. In the end, this could be great leverage for Mayock to get a "healthier" contract out of the NFL Network, which I'm sure his agent is already working on!

Great comparison to Moulds, that's the same comparison I've used to. Davis is an inch taller and probably 10 lbs. lighter than Moulds was coming out of Miss. St., but their games are similar. At the height of his career, Moulds was a YAC beast and had a knack for coming down with those tough 50/50 balls in the redzone and endzone. He was also sneaky fast down the sideline on those deep bombs. I see the same exact thing in Corey Davis. Davis has the same move Moulds did, where they catch the 10 yard comeback, juke their inside shoulder upfield to fake like they are turning inside only to explode toward the outside for another 15-20 yards. He also, much like Moulds, has the ability to catch the slant or the post and use the combination of his physicality, speed and agility to turn upfield and take it to the house. Mike Williams actually concerns me a lot as a prospect. He wins by being big, and having good hands. Similar to say, Alshon Jeffery. He's not quick, he's not fast, he's not agile and he's not a YAC guy. Those type of WR's have a much higher bust rate, IMO. Check out Corey Davis's move I described above at the 0:55 - 1:11 mark & 1:28 - 1:53 (fake shoulder dip inside, spin outside on the comeback route). Also 3:47-4:00 (catching the post and turning it up for YAC) Check out Eric Moulds move at the 2:57-3:10 mark (catching the slant and exploding up field)

Lol, I like the sound of that. And Corey Davis would, indeed, smoke Gilmore. I love Corey Davis, was posting about him months ago on this board. Hope he's a Bill in a couple of months.

Cap hit isn't getting kicked down the road. Tyrod took a massive pay cut. He was due $27.5M in year 1 and $40.5M over 2 yrs under the old deal He is now due $14.5M in year 1 and $30M over 2 years. He basically took a $13M paycut this year. This was a massive win for the Bills, and seems to indicate there wasn't much of a market for Tyrod outside of Buffalo.......you don't take that type of paycut unless there's no where else to turn. I always thought reports of other teams ready to make a run at Tyrod were being overblown. I never hated Tyrod, but I did hate his old deal. It had way too much cash for a middling QB. His new deal is much more in line with his value, so I'm okay with it. Still don't like the player, but I do like the value of the contract now.

Piecing together Vic Carucci's info and Jeremy White's info on the specifics of the Tyrod restructure, I'm pretty sure I know what it looks like: What we know: $7M signing bonus $10M cap hit in '17 $15.5M guaranteed 5 year deal year to year deal after '18 w/ no guarantees can earn up to $30M in '17 & '18 $8M in dead money if cut after '17 What I surmise: '17 - $7M signing bonus amortized over 5 yrs, $8.5M base salary. Cap hit of $9.9M ($8.5 base + $1.4M amortized SB) '18 - $14-$14.5M base. Cap hit of $15.9M ($14.5M base + $1.4M amortized SB) '19 - funny money, nothing guaranteed '20 - funny money, no guarantees '21 - funny money, no guarantees So, if I'm right, and I think I am or very close, the Bills did a great job. Dropped the '17 cap hit by $6M Kept the '18 cap hit the same Saved $12M in cash in year 1 Nothing is guaranteed after this year Huge win for the Bills, and actually makes Tyrod's contract a very palatable and perhaps trade-able asset into the future.

Signs point to that. We already have John Miller, Eric Wood & Incognito. Ryan Groy is the backup swing interior OL. So why sign Vlad Ducasse, you wouldn't even be able to dress him on Sunday's if the 4 guys I mentioned before him are on the roster. So barring an unforseen release of one of those players, it looks like Ducasse is destined for RT or backup swing tackle. Don't think he's a good player, s I'm interested to see where the #'s come in on this contract. 3 years indicates they like him and has me thinking he might be our starting RT.

Good news: Mike Tolbert doesn't count as an addition in the compensatory pick formula, as he was cut by the Panthers last month. For those that don't know players that are cut do not count as additions in the comp. pick formula. So far both Vlad Ducasse & the FB we signed from ATL do count as additions: The Bills better be very careful and not sign more FA than we lose because doing so would cost us a 3rd round comp pick in next years draft (for losing Gilmore). No way I want to risk losing a top 100 draft pick next year because I signed a bum like Vlad Ducasse this year.

How can I assess it if I don't know what we're paying him? I want to know if that roster bonus disappeared. Want to know his year 1 and year 2 cash payouts, and what the dead money looks like if we get rid of him after 2 years before I can properly judge bringing him back.

We need to see what happened to that $15.5M roster bonus. If he still get's that or a large portion of it, this sucks. If not, I'm okay with it.

I appreciate the effort, but thank god he's not our GM that's a lot worse than even Doug Whaley would ever imagine. I don't think a team in the history of FA has ever signed 10 FA's during the signing period, that's insane......and it would also cost us getting a 3rd round comp. pick for losing Gilmore, since we would've signed more FA than we lost. That's what really makes this plan bad. The restructures of Glenn and Dareus would only push huge cap hits further down the road, and for a team that's much closer to tearing it down then they are winning a SB that is another bad idea. Picking up Tyrod's contract and being forced to pay a very avg. QB $40.5M (what was Whaley thinking!!!!) for 2 years of service is assinine.