BillsFanForever19

If being 23 is old as dirt, I don't want to know what that makes me 😆 He spent 5 years in College, so he's 1 year older than your average Senior coming out. I don't know. It makes him 1 year older and he'll be 28 when his Rookie deal is up instead of 26 or 27. But I don't see it having a massive barring on whether or not he can be a success in the NFL just because he's 23 instead of 21 or 22.

In a situation where we went DL in Round 1, I would hope that Beane would move up from 60 in Round 2 to make sure that he got at least one of the last true Outside guys of value. But in a scenario where we did go DL, then weren't able to move up in Round 2, and he was the last WR left of good value - i'd take him then. But that's about the only scenario. I just don't see Beane taking a guy that small (as Steve Smith put it, "he's 170 lbs leaving the Thanksgiving table") who played only 60% of his snaps Outside last season at WR2. Fast as hell and explosive. But Beane is a "check the boxes" guy, who values the prototypical, athletic, physical specimens with his early picks. And I don't see Worthy checking enough boxes.

We simply cannot afford to do that this season. The cap can be finessed. But in the situation we're in, both with where we are financially and roster wise, it can't be finessed THAT much. The stud veteran difference makers are going to be Franchised (Higgins already has been and Pittman most likely will be) and Mike Evans is going to be an all out bidding war amongst the teams with large amounts of space, costing probably over 100m with the Cap jump. Guys like Odell Beckham Jr. or Marquise Brown are much more likely, but they're probably going to be overpaid and out of our range too. We have 22 FA's that we need to re-sign or replace. FIVE starters and important rotational or depth pieces. We're 37.5m over the Cap. And the Draft is only going to yield 2 starters. So unfortunately, we can't afford to pay extravagantly for a guy like Evans and field a full roster. The best we can do is provide Diggs with help. He's not going anywhere. Beane said today he's not doing anything where he's paying large amounts of Dead Caps for anyone. His money is guaranteed so we're paying that regardless of whether he's here or not. He's going to be here. And when it comes to that help, veteran wise we're looking at guys like Curtis Samuel, Darnell Mooney, DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, Kendrick Bourne, and Noah Brown representing the top of what we can afford in FA. Even a couple of them will probably cost more than we're willing to pay. The best we can do with what's available to us is get one of those guys and then Draft a guy in Round 1, doubling down later and hoping we find a Benford to Elam type at WR later.

This is why I'm out on Xavier Worthy too, just in the opposite way. He's an inside/outside flex guy. If he were to be available later in the mid rounds, i'd be fine with it. But we need to get a true Outside guy for WR2 early and he doesn't fit that bill to me. And he'll be long gone before we'll look to double dip in a more liberal type of WR.

Another TE and a RB?

Yikes - what a difference a year and a few months make around here.

Whether people like it or not, Hines will be in Training Camp on a reduced number and given every opportunity to earn a roster spot as a Reserve Back and Return Man. Outside of that, I'm looking at the best vet minimum will get us at RB and then a 6th or 7th Round Back. If we can get a better RB than Johnson at the same price, I'm open to it. But if it's a penny more, I'm bringing back Johnson.

Everyone agrees that Harrison Jr., Nabers, and Odunze are the top 3 guys. Pretty much everyone agrees Thomas Jr. is the 4th. But after that, literally everyone has a different opinion of the next guy. One guy will say it's Franklin. The next guy won't even Franklin have in the Top 10 WR's off the board. One guy will say Xavier Legette and the next guy will say he's a Day 3 guy. Someone will say it's Adonai Mitchell and then I'll look at another list and not find his name on Page 1. It's an absolute logjam mess after the first 4. Which goes to show the depth of talent in this years class. I don't think we'll have a clearer picture of the rankings until after the Combine and Pro Day's and when people start hearing whispers from league circles. Right now, I'm just looking at the prototypes when it comes to an Outside WR (as Beane always looks for specimen athletes), eliminating players I don't think are a fit for what we're looking for, and letting my eyes judge what I see. As it gets closer, I'll pay more attention to what the prognosticators are prognosticating.

He's going to get extended or Franchised. In the SLIM scenario he doesn't, he's estimated on a 4 year - 90m dollar deal, 22.7m per annually by Spotrac. And with Higgins being Franchised and the rise in Salary Cap, I can easily see it being more than that. There's no way to structure that, even with a smaller hit in Year 1, to make it work in the situation we're in.

Pearsall is a True Slot. So are you taking Shakir or Kincaid off the field to put him on? 3rd Slot isn't what I'm looking for in a Round 4 Double Dip. At most it would be a Tweener type that does a little of both. Not a guy who works exclusively there.

Both of these would be kind of surprising to me, at this stage. In listening to Beane on OneBillsLive, it sounded to me that he was saying Jones wanted to see his market before re-signing. Though it is possible that his agent tested the waters over the past 24 hours at the Combine. As for Edwards, in the position we're in cap wise and with McGovern and Torrence definitely starting, and Ryan Bates and Alec Anderson behind them - Edwards is a bit of a luxury to me. And with the Guard position being what it is in the NFL, he might be able to find a Starting gig. Also surprising to me that we'd be taking on the cap hits for both of them before we've dug ourselves out of the hole we're in. But I guess we'll see. EDIT: You're still following and giving credence to ErieCountyBulls after all their "sources" got wrong last year? Good Lord man. I see they changed their name so that they can try and dupe people all over again into believing they're legit.

The philosophical difference between you and me is that your posts are based solely on what you'd like and what you would do (even if it's downright impossible). My posts are based more on what I think Beane would do, based on his words and track record of addressing needs via the Draft and Free Agency and how he manages the cap. In 2022, we were in a similar position at CB that we are at WR. And we were in a better position cap wise and roster wise than we are this year. He took Elam in Round 1 and for the double dip, he waited until Round 6 with Benford. On the flip side in your favor, he did take Greg Rousseau in Round 1 and then took Boogie Basham in Round 2 in 2021. But the difference between that season, what we did in 2022, and this season is that we had decent cap space and spent a lot of money that year filling all of our other holes to a point where we could afford to do that. I'm not a guy who thinks we should go DL in Round 1 like many others. But I also simply don't see a scenario where he spends 28 and 60 on one single position this season. Especially in a scenario where he's giving up picks in Rounds 3 or 4 to trade up to address that position already. See, I knew you were going to do this. Hear that and ignore everything else. I'll have to wait and see the full Presser for the whole context and quote. But much like McDermott, I'd imagine he's replying to a specific question about it from Sal and not just going off about it himself. I'm POSITIVE if he was asked what he's looking for in a WR and not just "are you looking for explosiveness" - you wouldn't hear him say "just explosiveness - that's it. I don't care about anything else". Beane ALWAYS takes guys who are athletic specimens and checks not just one box he's looking for, but as close to all of them as he can. He'll even take guys who are considered more developmental projects (like Edmunds, Elam, Rousseau) that have great size and/or measurements and he sees fitting what he looks for in the position before taking guys who have better college tape. You don't have to hear him say what he's looking for to replace Gabe Davis to know what he's looking for. Yes, he is looking for speed and explosiveness. But if they don't have the adequate measurements or don't have the adequate usage and application in College to fit the role - it doesn't matter. And Worthy, as fun as he looks (btw how much of the highlight reel that you're drooling over with him is Special Teams?) - does not check enough other boxes to fit WR2, possible future #1. He's a gadget type playmaker that doesn't have close to full time Outside usage. That's what we're looking for exclusively. Not a guy that we'd have to remove Shakir or Kincaid from the field close to half of the time. If Worthy had more usage on the outside and had better size, it wouldn't be a question. He'd be up there with Thomas Jr. There's a reason he's looked at as a mid to late 2nd Round guy. And those reasons disqualify him in my eyes as a potential WR2 for a Brandon Beane led office.

If we were to get another true Outside WR that we could trust, maybe he'd be more of a consideration for me. But that's the crux of the issue. I don't see Beane taking a WR in Round 1 or Round 2 that we have to get creative with. And I don't see us double dipping in Round 1 AND Round 2. Too many holes to fill on the roster and not enough money to do it with. And if we have to trade up for Thomas (which is likely) we're DEFINITELY not going back to back in Round 1 and Round 2. We're not waiting until Round 4 to address every other position but WR. Beane's looking for a sure fire, stick on the boundary pretty much exclusively and call it a day type. We're looking for a guy to replace Gabe Davis. Not a guy that we have to remove Kincaid or Shakir from the field to get him out there close to half of the time. If Worthy were available in late Round 3 or 4 and we were able to snag a guy like Thomas, Franklin, Legette, or Coleman to cover WR2 without trading up - sure. Pull the trigger. But that won't be an option. You can get a guy like Thomas, Franklin, or Legette that can give you speed and explosiveness without being a projection as a full time Island guy or giving up height and/or physical build. Hell, Franklin takes some flack for being too small for the Outside. And even he has 20+ pounds on Worthy, 2 inches in height, much more outside usage, and only gives up .05 on the 40.

Only 60% Outside last season. He's not a TRUE Slot like Corley, but he's not a true Outside guy either - which is what we're in the market for. He's someone who you need to put all over the place between Slot, Outside, and Return. Not a guy that you stick on the Outside and call it a day, which is what we're looking for - with a hole there and Slot covered by Shakir and Kincaid (one would have to come off the field for Worthy there) and Return covered by Harty and/or Hines (at least one will be here) Combine that with the fact that, as Steve Smith put it, "he's 170 lbs after eating Thanksgiving dinner" and has adequate, but not great height - he just doesn't check nearly enough of the "boxes" for Davis' replacement. And Beane is a boxes guy. Yes, he wants explosiveness. But as I was saying, don't take that as him saying it's the ONLY thing that matters. We can get speed and explosiveness in guys who are taller and/or more physically built and more importantly than that - true Outside WR's and not a swiss army knife, Jack of all trades - master of none type.

If we go DL Round 1, which would be a surprise to me, I don't think we'll sit pat at 60. We'd trade up for a guy who's left on the board after Round 1. Outside of the first 3 guys who DEF won't be available to us, I have it as Thomas Jr., Legette (I'm higher on him than most), Franklin, Coleman, and Mitchell in that order. I expect 2-3 of those 5 guys to come off the board by the end of Round 1, Thomas Jr. definitely. It gets a little muddy after that. Hopefully some guys that I don't think fit us like McConkey, Worthy, and Corley also go before some of the other guys on the list. So, yeah, if we did go DL Round 1, which again I don't see happening (we can get quality DL help much easier in FA than we can get at WR) - we'd be playing the "who's left?" game and trading up from 60 to grab them.

I don't even see him as an option for 60. We're not taking another Slot that high with Shakir and Kincaid in the fold and a hole on the Outside.

He's a TRUE Slot. He ran pretty much exclusively there. As beaming as Steve Smith was about him, even he said you're not going to turn him from what he's been in College into an Outside guy. We are exclusively looking for an Outside WR to replace Gabe Davis this season and a guy who can develop into our #1 in the Future. We have Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid in the Slot. As I said, taking a Slot guy would remove one of them from the field and still leave us needing to replace Gabe on the Outside. Corley is not an option for us. If he were someone that was available on Day 3, maybe we'd take him if we double dip. But he won't be and we aren't looking at Slots on Day 1 or even Day 2.

Exclusively a Slot WR. We have a couple of them already. We'd be putting Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid on the sidelines to use him and we'd still need to replace Gabe Davis on the Outside. 5'11", 187 lbs. Quicker than truly fast. His most successful vertical routes coming from fades from the Slot position. Out on him also.

I don't doubt they are. But that doesn't mean he's exclusively looking for that and absolutely nothing else matters. Under 6'1", under 190 lbs, and more than 25-30% slot usage is still an eliminator IMO. Yes, we're looking for speed and explosiveness. But we're also looking exclusively for an Outside WR2 with our top pick. Beane is always looking for athletes. But he also looks for a buffet of traits.

Same. In watching what he did in 2021, in his only real season with significant reps Offensively, and with a much lesser QB - I expected him to be a "Diamond in the Rough" for us with Josh. Instead it was only rough.

To be fair, he didn't go out of his way and "specifically reference" it himself. He was specifically *asked* about it. And he replied to it with a kind of a bland, matter of fact manner about Offensive philosophy. Here's the whole question and answer: I got the feeling from your post that he was tipping his hand on what he was specifically looking for and that's not really what I took out of it watching the Presser.

I mean, this is essentially it. The value of the RB position is such that you're probably going to get a much better RB in the late Rounds than you are any of the other positions. The odds of hitting on one of those are probably better than the 45th CB or WR left on the board. And ultimately, we need probably 2 guys. Even a couple million dollars saved on not bringing in another vet RB can be the difference between one type of FA or another at some of the more important positions that we have holes to fill on. If we can do better than Ty Johnson for the price he costs on the one guy I see us bringing in, that's fine by me. But my mindset is 1 Vet Min FA and 1 Late Round Pick.

Welcome to the world of WarriorSpikes51 😆

Well that's really nice of Miami to let us pick a guy we'll use to beat their brains in for the next 5 years at least 😆 I wouldn't hate it. But if we're giving up a 3rd, then we really need to be even more judicious with our spending and make sure we're covering an extra, important hole in FA. I believe with the general devaluing of the position in Drafts, you could find a potential Starter at Safety in Round 3. Or a potential future Starter or at least 3rd DT (which gets a LOT of reps with how often they rotate). And I expected Round 3 to cover one of those. And I'm not sure that would be enough for 21. Even in the more modern Rich Hill model (which is less expensive than the old Jimmy Johnson model and more in line with modern trades) - 28, 99, and 192 isn't even enough for 22: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp Personally, I'm hoping if he's Beane's guy, that he's still there at 24. We can move 28, 129, and 162 for 24 - giving up our 4th and our second 5th and retaining our 3rd.