BillsFanForever19

I have no problem trading a 2nd next year with 28 to get Thomas. But I'm personally not interested in trading our 1st next year for a 2nd this year. If I'm moving 28, a 1st, and a 2nd next year - it's only in a move up for one of the Top 3 Elite Prospects WR's. In spending 28 and a 2nd next year already for Thomas, the most I'd be willing to give up is the other 2nd and maintaining our 1st in 2025. I'd probably even take 60 and our 2nd next year over giving up our 1st for another 2nd straight up.

Between 28 and 60 - the following WR's were selected: 30.) Baltimore: Troy Franklin - Oregon 33.) Carolina: Xavier Worthy - Texas 35.) Arizona: Xavier Legette - South Carolina 36.) Washington: Ladd McConkey - Georgia 43.) Atlanta: Keon Coleman - Florida State 46.) Indianapolis: Ricky Pearsall - Florida 48.) Jacksonville: Roman Wilson - Michigan 53.) Philadelphia: Malachi Corley - Western Kentucky 54.) Cleveland: Jermaine Burton - Alabama 58.) Green Bay: Ja'Lynn Polk - Washington This exercise has proven the idea that you can still get a good one at 60 is a dangerous game to play. Legette isn't sniffing 60. I don't care what the simulators are telling you.

Nah, I think he's a little overrated in my opinion. I don't think there's much difference between him or DJ Chark in quality of WR. And if we wanted another vet this season, we could still have Chark for less money and no Draft compensation.

I just feel if his ceiling is the Practice Squad this season (and I think it would be), the highest you should go for that is a late 6th. Yeah, I get that. Only thing I can figure is you aren't going to spend a Day 2 or Early Day 3 pick on a QB when you have a Franchise Guy entrenched, especially with the amount of needs we had. And the flip side is they don't feel comfortable relying on a Late Day 3 Rookie to be ready to take the team over in Year 1 if Josh were to get hurt. Most solid Backups are signed to be Bridge guys or fringe starters (like Gardner Minshew in LV and Jacoby Brissett in WAS), part of a competition to possibly start (like Jameis Winston or Tyler Huntley in CLE), go to someone with a questionable QB (like Tyrod Taylor in NYG), or an oft-injured QB (like Jimmy Garoppolo in LAR). With us having a Top 5 QB who stays on the field, we're not a destination for the top end Backup options. They must have felt Trubisky was the best we could do and it probably was. We're always going to be in that Trubisky, Keenum, K. Allen tier of Backups. With that said, it might not be a terrible idea to take a guy late, try and stash him, and hope he develops into something you can trust next year or the following one.

I don't see Nabers lasting until 7. The first 3 Picks will be QB's. Then the next 3 Picks are all WR needy teams with Harrison and Nabers being the highest rated players on the board. Even if one of them trades their pick to Minnesota, the other two will take Harrison and Nabers, or move their pick to someone who will. The 6th spot is the lowest you can go to land one of them, in my opinion. As for the cost to do that, I see it as at least being: 1st, 4th, and 5th in 2024 1st, 2nd, and 4th in 2025 The cost in the Julio Trade from 27 to 6 was a 1st, 2nd, and 4th in 2011 and a 1st and a 4th in 2012. So to go from 28 to 6 - you'll need to match that and sweeten it a bit. I think the Giants will be more interested in '25 picks to get their QB they'll have missed out on this year. So we can get away with our 1st, 2nd, and 4th part of the deal not being this year but next year instead. With that move and the projected comp picks - we could do that and still have fairly standard Drafts, minus the 1st next year. We'd take Harrison/Nabers and still have a 2nd, 4th, two 5th's, two 6th's and a 7th this year. And next year we'd still have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and two 6th's. Would Beane do that? I don't know. But that's how I see it playing out if we wanted Nabers.

I initially read the report wrong. I thought it was 10.8 ounces. Which would be a felony offense. 10.8 grams, though still illegal in Texas, is a misdemanor.

Von miller contract - You can't anticipate an ACL Tear. Before the injury, you saw why he deserved that contract. Dawson Knox contract - Bad move, no way around that. Stefon diggs contract - It ended up being a bad move. But at the time, like Miller, he deserved the contract he got. It was before things really went south and he probably felt that in paying him, he'd stay happy. Defense line draft picks that never pan out - First off, Ed Oliver did pan out. Greg Rousseau, a starter since he was Drafted, as the 30th pick in the Draft is not a bust. You act as if a player isn't a Pro Bowler it was a waste of a pick. You don't usually Draft All Pro's at 30. AJ Epenesa was a late bloomer, but has come on as a decent player who's now on his 2nd contract. Much like Rousseau, for being selected at Pick 54, he's at least gotten fair value for where he was picked. Especially now. Basham was a bust - but every GM in the league has picks that don't pan out. Because he felt he needed an absolute stud, he signed Miller. Defense tackle signings that are not good enough - Daquan Jones is solid and that's why he's been brought back on a second contract. Would you rather he spent big money on a big time DT like we did with Miller? Especially at rotational since Oliver and Jones are the starters? No reliable pass rusher - This is a repeat complaint, where the explanation falls under your Miller and DL Picks posts. Wyatt Teller give away - This was a mistake and he'd be the first to admit it. Nine times out of 10, if you trade a 5th Round developmental pick that looked average in a handful of games starting - they aren't going to become a Pro Bowl player. I don't remember anyone freaking out when the trade happened. Like a number of these decisions, hindsight is 20/20. Edmunds - What about him? He took a Linebacker mid Round 1 who started for 5 straight years for us, went to multiple Pro Bowls, and then signed the biggest MLB contract in history elsewhere. I know he was a whipping boy around here, but his contract speaks to how he was viewed around the league. I don't think there was a GM around the league who considered him a bust at Pick 16. All in all have all of his moves been perfect? No. But any GM in the league who's made the amount of picks and moves that he's made over an 8 year span is going to have some moves they'd like to take back and some picks that don't pan out. But he's manuevered every cap scenario we've had and has fielded a continual Playoff team and Divisional Champion. For every pick that didn't pan out, he's found guys who have - and often late in the Draft as Diamonds in the Rough. Think back to the teams we fielded before he got here. Some of the decisions that were made. Before he came here, we couldn't even get mid level FA's to agree to come here. Brandon Beane hasn't been perfect. But he's still the best GM we've had in a long, LONG time and is amongst the most respected people at his position in the league.

Eh - if he's around in the 6th, sure. The issue is Mitch is signed as our backup with 2.71m in guarantees and a 1.5m Dead Cap hit if cut. It's not a whole lot, but I don't think they signed him to cut him. I'd expect he's pretty entrenched as our Backup for at least this season. And with that, I don't know that we'd keep a 3rd QB on the 53. It's usually two on the 53, one on the Practice Squad. If you're using a 5th on him and cutting him to put him on the PS - there's a chance someone's just going to snag him and you've wasted a 5th Round Pick. But if he's available in the Late 6th or 7th? Sure. Go nuts. Guys around then clear waivers all the time.

Yeah, it's not much of a concern to me anymore as even though he was released last season and not this season - he's still not counted on the Comp formula. At up to 6.25, I had some concerns that the base may have been over 3 and thus cancel out one of our picks we're projected to get from Gabe Davis or Leonard Floyd.

OBJ wouldn't shock me, at this point. Tyler Boyd is a Slot guy and at this point, we have absolutely nothing on the roster BUT Slot guys. Same goes for Hunter Renfrow. Outside of those guys that aren't fits, OBJ and DJ Chark represent the best available in the market at this point. Not exactly sure of the correlation of how you would view this as a "likely tell" we are targeting one of the LSU WR's tho. Because OBJ went to LSU? That'd be a bit of a leap.

A few things at play here: 1.) Jefferson would cost way more than just 28. 2.) Jefferson is a 19.74m cap hit this season. We had about 4.25m in space before the Collins deal today. There's no way we could fit him in before 6/1, even on a new contract. 3.) I don't believe for a second Justin Jefferson is available for trade. He's the best WR in Football. A big part of them not paying for Cousins was knowing that they're going to have to and want to pay Jefferson. Jefferson seems excited by the Rookie QB's this season and looks forward to playing with one. And I'm sure they'd want whoever they Draft to throw to Jefferson. When it comes to veterans in a Trade, it'd be Tee Higgins. Maybe Brandon Aiyuk if the negotiations with San Fran are going absolutely nowhere. And I don't see either of those things as a possibility until after 6/1. Justin Jefferson talk just seems like fan fiction.

Who are they going to take at QB with 6? Caleb Williams is going 1. Some combination of Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, or J.J. McCarthy is going 2 and 3. They'd either have to move up to 4 or 5 for the last of the 4. They'd have to beat out Minnesota, who has 2 1st's this year to do it. And if they can do that, then a.) they won't be at 6 to trade with and b.) Arizona or LA, who would also be expected to Draft one of the first two guys will. And if they are of the mind that Penix and Nix are big time reaches at 6 (and they are) and are looking to move down to 28 with one of them in mind, there's not a guarantee the guy they'd want their would be available that low.

Not petty at all, that's correct and thank you for that. I forgot all about it. I'll update the post.

According to the go to Comp Guy from OverTheCap - that's the pick we lose for Samuel. Of course, nothing's final until it's final. But Nick is usually dead on when it comes to these things.

It's up to 6.25m. If the base is at 3.5 or more, it would count. EDIT: Thankfully, @nickkorte on Twitter ("The Comp Guy") confirmed Collins does NOT count.

I don't think a cut from last season would carry over to the next season. If we were to sign him last year when he was cut, then it wouldn't have counted. As of the start of the League Year, he's a Free and clear Free Agent that would count against the Comp formula - or at least I'd think so. I'd certainly hope it wouldn't count, as to pay that much and give up on a pick for Collins would be staggering to me. EDIT: "The Comp Guy" on Twitter (who's the go to guy for all Comp related queries for the Cover 1 guys) confirmed Collins does NOT count:

I didn't say it was a finalized list. Anything can change. I would be disappointed if we paid what we did and potentially gave up a 5th Rounder next year for Collins.

Of course things can change. I mentioned Comps for Dane and Tyrel that were cancelled out. This is a list of where we're currently at. And it may have *already* changed depending on the exact terms of Collins' deal.

Whoa! Up to 6.25m?! I literally just made a thread of our Projected Draft Capital. Not only would this be an overpay, it could cost us a Comp Pick next season. Wow. I hope most of the "up to" is incentives and it isn't really close to that much. I mean, that's more than we paid Edwards - who was the presumed starter at Guard. Are we planning on Starting Collins at Guard now? I was for this move at depth. But that price tag is puzzling.

Here's an updated list after yesterday's trade of our Current Draft Capital in 2024 and our Projected Capital in 2025 - including Modern Trade Chart (more accurate than the outdated Jimmy Johnson model) Point Values for this season (https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp), as well as Projected Comp Picks in 2025: 2024: Round 1 - 28 (209) Round 2 - 60 (88) Round 4 - 128 (18) Round 4 (Comp for Tremaine Edmunds) - 133 (17) Round 5 (from Chicago for Ryan Bates) - 144 (13) Round 5 (from Green Bay for 2023 Pick) - 160 (10) Round 5 - 163 (10) Round 6 - 200 (5) Round 6 (from Dallas for 2023 Pick) - 204 (4) Round 7 - 248 (1) 2025: Round 1 Round 2 (from Houston via Minnesota for Diggs) Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 4 (Projected Comp for Gabe Davis) Round 5 (Projected Comp for Leonard Floyd) Round 6 Round 6 (from NYG for Boogie Basham) We had an extra 6th this year and another 5th next year that was used in the Diggs trade. We were projected to get a 6th Round comp pick for Dane Jackson that was cancelled out by the Curtis Samuel signing. We were also projected to get a 7th Round Comp Pick for Tyrel Dodson that more than likely was cancelled by the Austin Johnson signing. We also moved our 7th next year for a 6th in the same Draft from the Giants for Boogie Basham (thanks to @gonzo1105 for the correction). The lack of a 3rd Rounder this year hurts. But looking over the next two years, we have a lot of extra capital that can be used in Trades, not only for this season, but next season as well. An extra 4th, two extra 5th's, and an extra 6th this year. An extra 2nd, 4th, and 6th next season.

If they are to trade one of our 2nd's next year, I would hope it would be for someone like Brian Thomas Jr. Though I wouldn't be opposed to a big trade up for the Top 3 - I just think the cost would be far too great for someone like Beane to do for a position other than QB. Thomas to me represents the likely Top Trade up option. One of the top 4 WR's are the only ones I'd be willing to give up prime '25 Draft Capital for. I don't know that I'm personally interested in giving up 60 plus a '25 2nd for a 2nd WR like McConkey or Franklin. Especially the pick we got for Diggs. And I don't know that our 2nd plus a '25 2nd is even enough to get to where he's going to be selected. I'd rather keep both 2nd Rounders next year and select someone like Wilson, Polk, Pearsall, McMillan, Burton, or Baker at 60 as the Double Dip. That's just me though.

Which to me is the crux of the issue of McConkey to me. He's someone who's going to go somewhere between where we're picking and 40. He's not my first or second choice for who we'll have a shot at in Round 1 and he's not someone who will be available for our 2nd pick - without giving up prime '25 assets to go from 60 to the area he'll be taken in.

This Mock is highlighting my concern about waiting until 60 or trying to trade up from 60 for WR. I do believe, as this exercise has shown, that 9-10 WR's are going to go by Pick 40. I would be disappointed if the 1st WR we took was outside of my Top 9 guys or so, which are the 9 WR's selected by 39 in this Mock. I'd also be disappointed to give up the Diggs pick or other '25 2nd for anything outside of my Top 4 or 5 guys. We have to take a guy at 28 (thankfully we did in this mock), trade up from 28, or do a very small trade down from 28 (no later than 35) at the absolute most - in my opinion.

Yes, he was named in a murder investigation. The thought was that he wouldn't be named a suspect, but it was stil a fluid situation and no one knew for 100% certainty that nothing could possibly come from it. I think that had way more to do with no one Drafting him than the request itself. Even in Round 7, you don't want to be the team that has to stand up at a podium and explain to the public why they Drafted someone charged with Murder, knowing his name was involved in the case. He's depth. A swing Tackle with versatility to also be a Backup Guard. Lots of people are posting he's toast. And yes, he's at a point in his career where you don't want to start him 17 games every down. But when it comes to a Backup Lineman, you can do a lot worse. Backup OT is a lot like Backup QB. There isn't even a solid 64 Starters in the League. You're always looking at the Ryan Quessenberry, Germain Ifedi, Bobby Hart's of the world. Taking a guy who played at a high level starter and using him in spot duty or in part of a season if someone were to get hurt for a little while, hopefully allows him to be fresh and play better when you need him. But he's definitely not a Daryl Williams type guy that you view as a potential starter. When you pose something as a joke that you'd actually be happy about. You've talked about it in the past and even talked about trading away Matt Milano yesterday in your obsession to acquire pieces to trade into the Top 10 of the Draft.

Seems fairly obvious that QB's will make up 4 of the first 5 picks. Minnesota with their ammo of 2 Round 1 Picks this year above ours and their need at QB is going to trade into 4 or 5 for the last of the 4 Top QB's with a high 1st Round Grade. Pick 6 tends to have either MHJ or Nabers available in most mocks. I definitely like Odunze. But if we were to trade to 6 with the board going as most expect it to, Odunze would not be my pick there.