BillsFanForever19

Von miller contract - You can't anticipate an ACL Tear. Before the injury, you saw why he deserved that contract. Dawson Knox contract - Bad move, no way around that. Stefon diggs contract - It ended up being a bad move. But at the time, like Miller, he deserved the contract he got. It was before things really went south and he probably felt that in paying him, he'd stay happy. Defense line draft picks that never pan out - First off, Ed Oliver did pan out. Greg Rousseau, a starter since he was Drafted, as the 30th pick in the Draft is not a bust. You act as if a player isn't a Pro Bowler it was a waste of a pick. You don't usually Draft All Pro's at 30. AJ Epenesa was a late bloomer, but has come on as a decent player who's now on his 2nd contract. Much like Rousseau, for being selected at Pick 54, he's at least gotten fair value for where he was picked. Especially now. Basham was a bust - but every GM in the league has picks that don't pan out. Because he felt he needed an absolute stud, he signed Miller. Defense tackle signings that are not good enough - Daquan Jones is solid and that's why he's been brought back on a second contract. Would you rather he spent big money on a big time DT like we did with Miller? Especially at rotational since Oliver and Jones are the starters? No reliable pass rusher - This is a repeat complaint, where the explanation falls under your Miller and DL Picks posts. Wyatt Teller give away - This was a mistake and he'd be the first to admit it. Nine times out of 10, if you trade a 5th Round developmental pick that looked average in a handful of games starting - they aren't going to become a Pro Bowl player. I don't remember anyone freaking out when the trade happened. Like a number of these decisions, hindsight is 20/20. Edmunds - What about him? He took a Linebacker mid Round 1 who started for 5 straight years for us, went to multiple Pro Bowls, and then signed the biggest MLB contract in history elsewhere. I know he was a whipping boy around here, but his contract speaks to how he was viewed around the league. I don't think there was a GM around the league who considered him a bust at Pick 16. All in all have all of his moves been perfect? No. But any GM in the league who's made the amount of picks and moves that he's made over an 8 year span is going to have some moves they'd like to take back and some picks that don't pan out. But he's manuevered every cap scenario we've had and has fielded a continual Playoff team and Divisional Champion. For every pick that didn't pan out, he's found guys who have - and often late in the Draft as Diamonds in the Rough. Think back to the teams we fielded before he got here. Some of the decisions that were made. Before he came here, we couldn't even get mid level FA's to agree to come here. Brandon Beane hasn't been perfect. But he's still the best GM we've had in a long, LONG time and is amongst the most respected people at his position in the league.

Eh - if he's around in the 6th, sure. The issue is Mitch is signed as our backup with 2.71m in guarantees and a 1.5m Dead Cap hit if cut. It's not a whole lot, but I don't think they signed him to cut him. I'd expect he's pretty entrenched as our Backup for at least this season. And with that, I don't know that we'd keep a 3rd QB on the 53. It's usually two on the 53, one on the Practice Squad. If you're using a 5th on him and cutting him to put him on the PS - there's a chance someone's just going to snag him and you've wasted a 5th Round Pick. But if he's available in the Late 6th or 7th? Sure. Go nuts. Guys around then clear waivers all the time.

Yeah, it's not much of a concern to me anymore as even though he was released last season and not this season - he's still not counted on the Comp formula. At up to 6.25, I had some concerns that the base may have been over 3 and thus cancel out one of our picks we're projected to get from Gabe Davis or Leonard Floyd.

OBJ wouldn't shock me, at this point. Tyler Boyd is a Slot guy and at this point, we have absolutely nothing on the roster BUT Slot guys. Same goes for Hunter Renfrow. Outside of those guys that aren't fits, OBJ and DJ Chark represent the best available in the market at this point. Not exactly sure of the correlation of how you would view this as a "likely tell" we are targeting one of the LSU WR's tho. Because OBJ went to LSU? That'd be a bit of a leap.

A few things at play here: 1.) Jefferson would cost way more than just 28. 2.) Jefferson is a 19.74m cap hit this season. We had about 4.25m in space before the Collins deal today. There's no way we could fit him in before 6/1, even on a new contract. 3.) I don't believe for a second Justin Jefferson is available for trade. He's the best WR in Football. A big part of them not paying for Cousins was knowing that they're going to have to and want to pay Jefferson. Jefferson seems excited by the Rookie QB's this season and looks forward to playing with one. And I'm sure they'd want whoever they Draft to throw to Jefferson. When it comes to veterans in a Trade, it'd be Tee Higgins. Maybe Brandon Aiyuk if the negotiations with San Fran are going absolutely nowhere. And I don't see either of those things as a possibility until after 6/1. Justin Jefferson talk just seems like fan fiction.

Who are they going to take at QB with 6? Caleb Williams is going 1. Some combination of Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, or J.J. McCarthy is going 2 and 3. They'd either have to move up to 4 or 5 for the last of the 4. They'd have to beat out Minnesota, who has 2 1st's this year to do it. And if they can do that, then a.) they won't be at 6 to trade with and b.) Arizona or LA, who would also be expected to Draft one of the first two guys will. And if they are of the mind that Penix and Nix are big time reaches at 6 (and they are) and are looking to move down to 28 with one of them in mind, there's not a guarantee the guy they'd want their would be available that low.

Not petty at all, that's correct and thank you for that. I forgot all about it. I'll update the post.

According to the go to Comp Guy from OverTheCap - that's the pick we lose for Samuel. Of course, nothing's final until it's final. But Nick is usually dead on when it comes to these things.

It's up to 6.25m. If the base is at 3.5 or more, it would count. EDIT: Thankfully, @nickkorte on Twitter ("The Comp Guy") confirmed Collins does NOT count.

I don't think a cut from last season would carry over to the next season. If we were to sign him last year when he was cut, then it wouldn't have counted. As of the start of the League Year, he's a Free and clear Free Agent that would count against the Comp formula - or at least I'd think so. I'd certainly hope it wouldn't count, as to pay that much and give up on a pick for Collins would be staggering to me. EDIT: "The Comp Guy" on Twitter (who's the go to guy for all Comp related queries for the Cover 1 guys) confirmed Collins does NOT count:

I didn't say it was a finalized list. Anything can change. I would be disappointed if we paid what we did and potentially gave up a 5th Rounder next year for Collins.

Of course things can change. I mentioned Comps for Dane and Tyrel that were cancelled out. This is a list of where we're currently at. And it may have *already* changed depending on the exact terms of Collins' deal.

Whoa! Up to 6.25m?! I literally just made a thread of our Projected Draft Capital. Not only would this be an overpay, it could cost us a Comp Pick next season. Wow. I hope most of the "up to" is incentives and it isn't really close to that much. I mean, that's more than we paid Edwards - who was the presumed starter at Guard. Are we planning on Starting Collins at Guard now? I was for this move at depth. But that price tag is puzzling.

Here's an updated list after yesterday's trade of our Current Draft Capital in 2024 and our Projected Capital in 2025 - including Modern Trade Chart (more accurate than the outdated Jimmy Johnson model) Point Values for this season (https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp), as well as Projected Comp Picks in 2025: 2024: Round 1 - 28 (209) Round 2 - 60 (88) Round 4 - 128 (18) Round 4 (Comp for Tremaine Edmunds) - 133 (17) Round 5 (from Chicago for Ryan Bates) - 144 (13) Round 5 (from Green Bay for 2023 Pick) - 160 (10) Round 5 - 163 (10) Round 6 - 200 (5) Round 6 (from Dallas for 2023 Pick) - 204 (4) Round 7 - 248 (1) 2025: Round 1 Round 2 (from Houston via Minnesota for Diggs) Round 2 Round 4 Round 4 (from Chicago) Round 4 (Projected Comp for Gabe Davis) Round 5 (Projected Comp for Leonard Floyd) Round 6 (from Cleveland in Cooper trade) Round 6 Round 6 (from NYG for Boogie Basham) We had an extra 6th this year and another 5th next year that was used in the Diggs trade. We were projected to get a 6th Round comp pick for Dane Jackson that was cancelled out by the Curtis Samuel signing. We were also projected to get a 7th Round Comp Pick for Tyrel Dodson that more than likely was cancelled by the Austin Johnson signing. We also moved our 7th next year for a 6th in the same Draft from the Giants for Boogie Basham (thanks to @gonzo1105 for the correction). The lack of a 3rd Rounder this year hurts. But looking over the next two years, we have a lot of extra capital that can be used in Trades, not only for this season, but next season as well. An extra 4th, two extra 5th's, and an extra 6th this year. An extra 2nd, 4th, and 6th next season.

If they are to trade one of our 2nd's next year, I would hope it would be for someone like Brian Thomas Jr. Though I wouldn't be opposed to a big trade up for the Top 3 - I just think the cost would be far too great for someone like Beane to do for a position other than QB. Thomas to me represents the likely Top Trade up option. One of the top 4 WR's are the only ones I'd be willing to give up prime '25 Draft Capital for. I don't know that I'm personally interested in giving up 60 plus a '25 2nd for a 2nd WR like McConkey or Franklin. Especially the pick we got for Diggs. And I don't know that our 2nd plus a '25 2nd is even enough to get to where he's going to be selected. I'd rather keep both 2nd Rounders next year and select someone like Wilson, Polk, Pearsall, McMillan, Burton, or Baker at 60 as the Double Dip. That's just me though.

Which to me is the crux of the issue of McConkey to me. He's someone who's going to go somewhere between where we're picking and 40. He's not my first or second choice for who we'll have a shot at in Round 1 and he's not someone who will be available for our 2nd pick - without giving up prime '25 assets to go from 60 to the area he'll be taken in.

This Mock is highlighting my concern about waiting until 60 or trying to trade up from 60 for WR. I do believe, as this exercise has shown, that 9-10 WR's are going to go by Pick 40. I would be disappointed if the 1st WR we took was outside of my Top 9 guys or so, which are the 9 WR's selected by 39 in this Mock. I'd also be disappointed to give up the Diggs pick or other '25 2nd for anything outside of my Top 4 or 5 guys. We have to take a guy at 28 (thankfully we did in this mock), trade up from 28, or do a very small trade down from 28 (no later than 35) at the absolute most - in my opinion.

Yes, he was named in a murder investigation. The thought was that he wouldn't be named a suspect, but it was stil a fluid situation and no one knew for 100% certainty that nothing could possibly come from it. I think that had way more to do with no one Drafting him than the request itself. Even in Round 7, you don't want to be the team that has to stand up at a podium and explain to the public why they Drafted someone charged with Murder, knowing his name was involved in the case. He's depth. A swing Tackle with versatility to also be a Backup Guard. Lots of people are posting he's toast. And yes, he's at a point in his career where you don't want to start him 17 games every down. But when it comes to a Backup Lineman, you can do a lot worse. Backup OT is a lot like Backup QB. There isn't even a solid 64 Starters in the League. You're always looking at the Ryan Quessenberry, Germain Ifedi, Bobby Hart's of the world. Taking a guy who played at a high level starter and using him in spot duty or in part of a season if someone were to get hurt for a little while, hopefully allows him to be fresh and play better when you need him. But he's definitely not a Daryl Williams type guy that you view as a potential starter. When you pose something as a joke that you'd actually be happy about. You've talked about it in the past and even talked about trading away Matt Milano yesterday in your obsession to acquire pieces to trade into the Top 10 of the Draft.

Seems fairly obvious that QB's will make up 4 of the first 5 picks. Minnesota with their ammo of 2 Round 1 Picks this year above ours and their need at QB is going to trade into 4 or 5 for the last of the 4 Top QB's with a high 1st Round Grade. Pick 6 tends to have either MHJ or Nabers available in most mocks. I definitely like Odunze. But if we were to trade to 6 with the board going as most expect it to, Odunze would not be my pick there.

I'm not saying it definitely means we're in trouble. Everything could still work out and we end up even better. Hell, even winning it all. But there's going to be a lot of new faces and faces in new places. It's going to be a very different starting 11 on both sides. To say that the lack of continuity is absolutely nothing to worry about and everything's going to be fine - that's no guarantee either. We're going into next season with just 1 WR with any sort of rapport with Josh. A reworked OL. A new backend to the Defense. Hoping for the best regardless.

A full rebuild? No. But there's a wild amount of moving parts and new faces to expect everything to gel and have continuity right off the bat and not miss a beat.

It would have to be done after 6/1 and require some restructuring. We've got maybe 4.5m right now and half of that will probably go to Draft Picks. Right now it isn't feasible without going over by a fair amount.

Yeah, I mean, if they hurled personal insults at someone - they've definitely got it coming even more. I've been taking my medicine and liking it today and I never got personal with anyone.

I really hope I'm wrong (and good news there, i've been doing a lot of that lately!) - I just don't see Arizona or the Giants passing on generational talents at a position of need for them. Now more than ever, Thomas is in play. Especially with the added ammo from the Diggs trade. Maybe an outside chance that Odunze falls a couple picks and we're able to get to like 9 or 10 or something. But when it comes to Harrison and Nabers, I just don't see them giving up not only them - but even guys like BTJ and possibly Mitchell as well, moving all the way to 28. I think for this to happen, it would need to be like a Josh trade was. We'd need to move up to like the 10-15 range before the Draft and then move up again from there.

My question after everything we've done this offseason and now in moving Diggs.... Why did we keep McDermott? Let me preface it by saying I wasn't out for his blood after this season. If he stayed or went, I wasn't going to lose any sleep. But many felt this was a make or break season for him. Then they did about as big of a soft rebuild of the team as you can do while still having a Franchise QB in place. Even with a potentially better roster on paper, there's now *SO MANY* moving parts this season that it almost feels like a built in excuse or expected that we don't take the next step. I feel like if we were going to do this much overhaul to the roster - this year would have been a good time to make the change at Head Coach too.