BillsFanForever19

There it is. As I was saying in the 'Pick Your Poison" thread - we don't have the moves left to pull off something major. So it was going to be a FA acquisition or a smaller Trade along these lines or nothing. Right now, with Coleman not expected to be shoved right into a starting role, Shakir as a Pure Slot, and Samuel as a mainly interior and out of the Backfield guy - we're looking at our starting options on the Outside being Hollins, Shorter, and Claypool. Say what you want about MVS, he's a better option than any of the above.

Slayton is intriguing. Speedy, young, and produced over 700 yards in back to back season with less than stellar QB play. If the options are starting Hollins, Shorter, and/or Claypool on the Outside to start the season or longer or acquiring a Michael Thomas or MVS in FA or a Tyler Lockett, Darius Slayton, or Jacobi Myers via Trade - I'll take the latter 6 days a week and twice on Sundays.

I meant to respond to your other post on my FA WR thread and forgot. So I'll just do it here. Your list is 95% made up of guys we either won't be able to afford, will require an amount of compensation in picks and money that I don't see Beane doing at this stage in the Offseason, and/or won't be being traded. For the millionth time, Moore isn't going anywhere. They gave up a fair amount to get him just a season ago and he's produced. Allen works predominantly out of the Slot. They'll have Moore and Odunze on the Outside with Allen in the slot, Allen working in on the Outside when either needs to sub out. They don't really have anything underneath those 3 guys. They knew what they were doing acquiring all 3 over the past two seasons. Hopkins is the most likely to be acquired from a financial standpoint. But like the Bears and Moore, I don't see them moving him for many of the same reasons. They acquired him just last year when Burks underachieved expectations. They hoped with Hopkins on the other side, he'd take a step forward. Instead, he took a step backwards. Realizing they're nowhere with Burks, they signed Ridley to remove him from the signing lineup. The addition of Boyd does nothing to alter Ridley and Hopkins on the Outside. He's a PURE Slot. They'll have Ridley and Hopkins on the Outside and Boyd Inside. I see no way they're going to move out Hopkins and put Burks back in the Starting Lineup, following last season. If they move anyone, it would be Burks. You're ignoring expenses we have that are unavoidable. Counting what we have left and the money that's coming from Tre - we'll have about 12. But half or more of that is going to go to paying for our Draft Picks, paying for the Practice Squad, and a little left for in season spending. You keep mentioning restructuring Josh for a second time in the same offseason. I don't see that happening. He's never restructured someone twice in the same offseason. I'm not sure why he chose to not restructure the full amount he could, but there was a reason for it. If he was going to squeeze more out of his deal for this offseason, he'd have done it then. As for other cap saving measures, we've done literally all we could do in terms of potential releases, extension, and restructures already. Save for just two possibilities. A restructure to Oliver and a restructure to Milano. Those moves won't be nearly enough to take on most of your list and pay for the unavoidable expenses we have. This is why I was looking at the FA market. I agree we could use someone bigger from your list. But I don't see us being able to pull it off and more importantly, I don't see Beane doing what it would take in giving up premium Draft Picks, restructuring deals he's already done this offseason, AND paying someone a massive long term deal at the numbers they're being done for this year. If we are to make a move, at all, I see it either being a Free Agent or someone more like this on a trade that would require far less to pull off: In regards to your last reply to me on the other thread, identifying that it's unlikely to practically impossible to acquire a major target doesn't mean I don't think we need it. Nor does saying it's that or nothing make it more likely to happen or that other options couldn't provide an upgrade from what we have on the Outside to start the season.

I don't see him making it. He'll have a "chance", just like anyone in Training Camp does. But he's a longshot. I think they view him like a Brandin Bryant before him. A guy they like enough that he always has a spot on the Practice Squad and is generally the first to get called up if there's an injury. But they feel fairly safe putting him there. If he gets pulled away to a 53 (as he did briefly with Atlanta last year), they're happy for him. But they know he'll always find his way back. We kept 6 last year, but that was just because of Von's injury and the guys we had under contract/Drafted that we felt we couldn't lose. Usually the numbers 4 or 5. I think we keep 5 this year. Groot, Von, and Epenesa are locks. Solomon being a 5th Round Pick (and a steal there) is pretty safe in my eyes. That leaves one spot for Smoot, Toohill, or Kingsley. Smoot signed a 2.5m contract with 1.75 guaranteed and is a much more productive player with much more experience. I think he gets the last spot. I even think Toohill has a better chance than Kingsley does. If they truly felt that Kingsley had earned a spot on the 53 after last season, they wouldn't have Drafted Solomon and signed Smoot post Draft, after signing Toohill earlier in Free Agency. They'd have passed on one or two of those.

Agreed. He's going to have options. And his agent is going to direct him to a team that is either going to straight up give him the job or to a team that has an inexpensive starter that doesn't have a secure grasp on the starting job for an even and open competition for a starting job. Not to a team like us that has a guy on an expensive, unlikely to be cut contract, and a firm position on the 53.

UB LB Joe Andreeseen has been signed to the roster after his Rookie Minicamp tryout. This leaves one open roster spot. Though bottom of the roster releases could be done if they decided to sign more than one player between now and Training Camp.

He's the starter at Slot. He'll share the role with Kincaid (occasionally working at TE with his hand on the ground) and Samuel (working there, out of the Backfield, in motion, and the occasional outside reps) - and probably often as one of two inside in 4 WR sets. But I see Shakir as the starter there.

Added the numbers of the UDFA's, if anyone cares about stuff like that. Cool to see Frank Gore Jr. take his dad's number from when he was here.

As it stands, it's a pretty clear 53. We will have some money come 6/1. Though around half of what we'll have between now and then will have to go to Draft Picks, the Practice Squad, and in season spending money - we will sign a couple players and I'd figure at least one of them will be a rostered guy. WR: I agree we will keep 6, maybe even 7 (as we've done that multiple times under McDermott). As it stands, I think the extra guy wouldn't be Hamler or Isabella. It would be Claypool. But I would expect another to be added that will change that. DE: Like WR, The 5th guy I don't expect to be either of the guys you listed. I see it being Dawuane Smoot. He was signed for more money than Toohill and is a better player than both of them. LB: I could see this being just 5. That's what we kept last year. Especially if they kept 7 WR's. CB: I could see a 4th Outside CB be added that would push Ingram off the roster. Especially with how frequent Benford is injured and Elam's development being shaky at best. Other than those things, I agree completely with your 53.

With all due respect to you and the guy on WGR - I agree to disagree. If Coleman takes to things like a fish in water in Training Camp and the Pre-Season with Josh, maybe McDermott changes his spots a little bit. But he's frustratingly conservative bringing along Rookies out of the gate. We didn't start utilizing Kincaid on a regular basis until the end of the year, even after he was showing signs early. And Beane himself also said Coleman's probably not stating the year. As for Shakir, again, I don't know who this guy is who said this - but from the sounds of it, it sounds like a national guy who was hypothesizing. I've yet to hear this from more connected local guys. And from a logical standpoint, it doesn't make much sense. You've got a guy who was looked at in league circles as a Slot only guy at the next level. He's shown growth year to year there and was playing at a very high level last season. Working the middle of the field, finding gaps in short yardage, and intermediately against Nickel CB's and LB's. We're now going to take him from where he was great and growing and then tell him to do something completely differently? And I don't know how they could think that. They didn't ask him to do it very often last season. Only when we were in a pinch late in the year with Davis down. And when we did, he didn't produce from that spot, as opposed to how he was producing in the Slot.

Here's a look at how the roster is shaping out, by position as we head towards Training Camp. Travis Clayton being an International Pathway Player gets a roster exemption, allowing us to carry 91 instead of 90: QB: Josh Allen #17 Mitch Trubisky #11 Shane Buechele #6 RB: James Cook #4 Ray Davis #22 Ty Johnson #26 Darrynton Evans #37 Frank Gore Jr. #20 - Reggie Gilliam #41 WR: Keon Coleman #0 Curtis Samuel #1 Marquez Valdes-Scantling Khalil Shakir #10 Mack Hollins #13 Justin Shorter #18 Chase Claypool #14 K.J. Hamler #19 Andy Isabella #87 Tyrell Shavers #80 Bryan Thompson #89 Xavier Johnson Jr. #16 Lawrence Keys #82 TE: Dalton Kincaid #86 Dawson Knox #88 Quintin Morris #85 Zach Davidson #84 Tre Mc'Kitty #83 OL: Dion Dawkins #73 David Edwards #76 Connor McGovern #66 O'Cyrus Torrence #64 Spencer Brown #79 - La'el Collins #71 Sedrick Van Pran-Granger #62 Ryan Van Demark #74 Alec Anderson #70 Tylan Grable #68 Travis Clayton #67 (Roster Exemption) Will Clapp #77 Tommy Doyle #72 Richard Gouraige #75 Kevin Jarvis #63 Keaton Bills #60 Gunner Britton #61 Mike Edwards #65 DE: Von Miller #40 Greg Rousseau #50 AJ Epenesa #57 Dawuane Smoot #94 Javon Solomon #56 Casey Toohill #95 Kingsley Jonathan #59 Kameron Cline #96 David Ugwoebgu #55 Rondell Bothroyd #97 DT: Ed Oliver #91 Daquan Jones #92 DeWayne Carter #90 Austin Johnson #98 DeShawn Williams #99 Eli Ankou #51 Branson Deen #53 LB: Matt Milano #58 Terrel Bernard #43 Dorian Williams #42 Edefuan Ulofoshio #48 Baylon Spector #54 Deion Jones #45 Nicholas Morrow #52 Joe Andreeseen #41* (Camp # Owned by Gilliam) CB: Rasul Douglas #31 Christian Benford #47 Taron Johnson #7 Kaiir Elam #5 Daequan Hardy #25 Ja'Marcus Ingram #46 Kyron Brown #32 Keni-H Lovely #38 Te'Cory Couch #33 S: Cole Bishop #24 Mike Edwards #21 Taylor Rapp #9 Cam Lewis #33 Dee Delaney Damar Hamlin #3 Kendall Williamson #36 ST: Tyler Bass #2 Sam Martin #8 Reid Ferguson #69 Matt Haack #15 Jack Browning #30

People need to keep in mind that Tyler Boyd is a PURE Slot. He does nothing to alter the lineup on the Outside. Currently, they have Ridley and Hopkins on the Outside and Boyd in the Slot. I don't think the acquisition of Boyd makes it much more likelier that they'd trade Hopkins than before they acquired him. If they had Drafted someone alongside the Ridley and Boyd acquisitions, I could see it. But they didn't. If they move Hopkins, they'll be back to starting Burks - who they said was on a make or break season last year and didn't improve. Which is why I think they signed Ridley. As much as I'd love Hopkins, the only move I see them doing, if any, is moving on from Burks.

Of course they all excite you more than what's available. I'd love to have them too. But we don't have the kind of money available to us, or the cap saving measures left, to get one of them feasibly. First of all, as i've said and others have said to you, the Bears aren't trading one of their WR's. Especially not Keenan Allen. They just got him a month and a half ago. When has anyone traded for a player and then a month later traded him away? You're looking at them having traded for Moore just last season, traded for Allen this season, and then Drafted Odunze and thinking "they have too many WR's". But Allen works out of the Slot more than the Outside. So they'll have Moore and Odunze outside and Allen in the Slot on most packages - with Allen going Outside when one of them subs out. They knew what they were doing with the moves they've made over the past year. But back to my original point. Yes, we have 10.25 coming 6/1. But after the moves we made in Smoot, Claypool, Cephus, and Jones - subtracting the bottom 4 cap numbers from the Top 51 - we have 1.71m available to us currently. So we'll have just about 12m come 6/1. But we also have to pay for Draft Picks, be able to pay for the Practice Squad, and have a little left over for in season spending. That's going to cut into about half or more of that 12m. That means we'd have to come up with a *LOT* of money for one of those guys. And when it comes to cap saving measures - we've already pulled every release, restructure, and extension cord imaginable to get out from under where we were and do what we've done already, save for a couple. We could do an Oliver restructure and maybe a Milano restructure. But that's not going to be nearly enough to cover the costs we have to cover already and be able to take on the contract of one of those major players. And i'll believe that they'll restructure Josh twice in the same offseason again when I see it. The way trades work is that for them to be approved, we have to be able to take on their contract as is first. You can't restructure their contract or sign them to a new contract until you've traded for their original contract first. And when you look at the contracts of the guys you listed, those are *massive* numbers. Guys like Aiyuk, Higgins, Samuel, Adams - even another restructure of Josh with restructures to Oliver and Milano won't be nearly enough. So, yes, Beane does have the tendency to lie. But in this scenario, it's extremely unlikely to me that he's going to a.) Be able to come up with the kind of money in the first place b.) Would be willing to do the kind of things to contracts to do it, even if there is a path c.) Is going to sign someone to a long term contract at this season's cost for one of those players and d.) Would give up premium Draft Picks for the privilege of paying that contract. Again, i'd be here for it if he did somehow pull it off. But it doesn't seem feasible or characteristic of him to do so. This is why I'm looking at the FA market. It is infinitely more likely to me that he signs one of them or does nothing at all than it is he'll do what it takes to land one of those heavy hitters at this point in the Offseason, with everything we've done to finesse the cap as much as we have already. So many people like yourself have this mindset of "big trade or nothing". And if that's the case, I'd put it at 95% nothing to 5% big trade. And personally, I'd rather do a move for a manageable veteran left than do nothing at all and roll with Hollins and Shorter or Hollins and Claypool starting the season on the Outside.

Essentially, this is where i'm at right now. Yes, i'm aware that Beane speaks out of both sides of his mouth and lies. But when it comes to him saying there "won't be a big trade" - there's more than that. After the deals for Smoot (surprisingly, a 2.5m deal), Claypool, and Jones were announced today - subtracting the bottom 3 numbers of the Top 51 and where we were at going into today - we currently sit 1.71m under the cap. Yes, we have Tre's 10.25 coming 6/1. Putting us at essentially 12. But if you remove the cost of Draft Picks, the Practice Squad, and a couple million for in season spending - it's some money - but it's not much. When it comes to restructures and extensions, we've pretty much pulled all the cords we could pull already. You could do a restructure on Oliver and maybe Milano. But that's not going to be close to enough to come up with what it would take for a Higgins or Aiyuk. People like to say "well, we restructure or rip up the deal, do a new one, and make that 1st year number lower". The problem is that's not how it works. You can't restructure or sign a traded player to a new deal until after you've traded for them. And for the trade to be approved, you have to have the space to take on their deal *as is* first. I just don't see how they can afford to take on any of the bigger names right now. That's why i've been looking at the Free Agent pool. It's not a particularly exciting group. But there's a couple that would be an upgrade over what we've got right now starting on the Outside Week 1. And to me, it's looking like one of them or nothing - unless someone gets released unexpectedly or there's someone on a contract that's managable that can be had via Trade that we don't know about.

No. Samuel wasn't pushed to the Slot outside of necessity. That's his best fit and where he's found success over his career. That's why he's there and that's why you play him there. Their outside guys were Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Curtis Samuel was already in house when they Drafted Dotson to start on the Outside because Samuel is not someone you play even half the time there. Think of him as a high end gadget player, that works predominantly inside. Ultimately, Samuel (GREATLY) replaces Harty as an all over the field weapon. Hollins replaces Sherfield. Coleman replaces one of Diggs or Davis. Shakir stays where he is. We'd be solid if we still had Diggs and were just needing to replace Davis on the Outside, as we were most of the offseason. Coleman covers that. But we went into this Draft with no longer needing to replace just Davis, but Diggs and Davis instead. We did not (and quite frankly could not) do that. We have an Outside hole, simple as that. Made even worse by Coleman not being expected to start the year. And guys like Justin Shorter, Chase Claypool, and Quintez Cephus can not be relied on upon to fill that hole, in my opinion. You can keep 1 of them, maybe 2 of them if we keep 7 this year (as we have in multiple seasons under McDermott). But they're bottom of the roster, depth guys.

Correct, thank you. I confused the 5th Round trade down we did with Green Bay this year with the deal for Chicago's pick next year. I've since updated the post.

Samuel isn't being written off as a failed deal or won't be used. He's going to get plenty of usage. But if you look at not only where he's found success in this league and what his role has been and the things Beane has said about him since signing him, he's not someone who's going to be used even 50%, let alone more than that on the Outside. Again, on multiple occasions when asked about Samuel and his role, Beane has called him simply "a weapon". Going on to say that when he was "in Carolina, Samuel was in the RB room just as much as the WR Room". Don't get me wrong, he'll get some usage on the Outside. But he isn't someone we're going to Start there or use predominantly there. He's going to be all over the field. Inside, in motion, out of the backfield, and occasionally Outside - depending on packages. He was used on the Inside on 75% of snaps last season. That's where he's found success. You don't just flip that number and play a guy away from where he's become successful. I firmly disagree with Shakir getting plenty of work at both spots. He is a pure Slot. That's his game. He is not an Outside WR. Just because he produced well last season from the Slot doesn't mean we can just put him on the Outside against taller, longer armed, more physical (and generally more talented) CB's and tell him to beat their press and go more vertically. That's not his game. It would be malpractice to take a young player who is developing and succeeding in one position and then say "cool, now do something else". You keep him where he's successful and you continue his development. Like I said, we were able to steal him in the 5th because he was viewed as someone who could only work Inside and when we put him out there for a handful of plays in the Playoffs in a pinch, he wasn't making plays. He's Cole Beasley. Cole had incredible seasons for us out of the Slot. That didn't make us go, "you're a Perimeter WR now".

My god. This guy is looking to ruin his career QUICK.

Coleman won't start the year, as McDermott is notoriously slow bringing Rookies along and Beane has already said he'll "have a hard time starting at the beginning of the year". Samuel is not an Outside WR. He has flexibility to play there occasionally in certain packages and matchups. But he's 75% from the Inside or coming out of the Backfield. When asked about Samuel, he's referred to him as simply as a "weapon" and not strictly in one spot. He'll be used all over the field. Shakir is a pure slot. Regardless of how good of a Slot you are, that doesn't mean you move to the Outside. It's a completely different game and style of play. One that Shakir is not made for physically or stylistically, which is why he fell to the 5th Round for us, and also didn't produce there when given minimal reps in the Playoffs when we were hurting on the Outside. Right now, we're looking at Mack Hollins and Justin Shorter (or Chase Claypool) taking the majority of starting reps on the Outside. With the occasional Coleman snaps while he gets his sea legs under him and the occasional (but not regular) Outside snaps from Samuel - with Shakir exclusively on the Inside, Kincaid working mainly on the inside and occasionally off the line as a TE, and Samuel working all over the field, but the majority inside. But when it comes to guys you can exclusively or predominantly work the perimeter, we don't have much to start the year. By the end of the year (hopefully sooner, rather than later) Coleman will lock down one of the spots. But even then you're still looking at Mack Hollins as predominantly a starter on the other. And in 4 WR sets, especially to start the year? Hooo boy! The inside 2 spots will look great, but the Outside? Yick.

To me, it's Eric Moulds and Mario Williams and it's not even close. Kyle Williams would be great. But Oliver is very solid and we don't have the hole or question mark at 3T that we do at WR and DE.

Is this really the feeling around here? That we make a trade or do nothing at all? If he can't get a deal done or doesn't want to pay the price it would cost - you'd prefer Hollins and Shorter or Hollins and Claypool on the Outside to start the year over guys like Thomas, MVS, or Robinson that are at least marginally better players and have more starting experience? Yikes. I was simply referring to the time I spent putting my thoughts down when it comes to a number of things with the room. A lot of it doesn't appear to be common knowledge around here as many still say things like "we'll be starting Samuel and Shakir on the Outside", "we should sign Tyler Boyd or Hunter Renfrow", the common refrain of "why didn't we double down?", or people thinking the signings of Claypool and Cephus definitively spell the end of additions to the room.

The Titans just Drafted Will Levis last year with Pick 33 and he showed some promise in his Rookie year. They also Drafted Malik Willis with a 3rd the year before. I would have been surprised if they had Drafted a QB. The Giants reportedly did try to get up to 3 for Drake Maye and couldn't pull it off. They obviously weren't enamored with J.J. McCarthy. And Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix were over drafted in my opinion. I think they made the smart move taking a WR with Elite skills in Nabers this year, not forcing a QB that they didn't like, and waiting until next year. The Seahawks weren't in a position to take any sort of difference maker there, picking at 16 and the top 6 QB's going in the Top 10. After the Top 10, there wasn't another QB taken until Round 5. Between Geno Smith and signing Sam Howell - they're fine for this season.

No, he's an Outside WR. Like Diggs, he has the flexibility to slide inside from time to time. But he took 78% of his snaps from the Outside last season.

The results of this poll thus far is really interesting. 62 for signing one of the best available Free Agents 62 for not bringing in anyone else Meanwhile only 19 people think we will sign someone else vs. 105 who thinks we won't.

Their game is working against similar sized players in the Nickel, working the middle of the field lining up against them and Linebackers. Playing against taller, longer armed, jam at the line lockdown corners going more vertically is an ENTIRELY different game. Samuel has better speed and is a more physical player. So he's better suited than Shakir to do it and it's why he has a higher number from the Outside than Shakir. But even he has been determined to be a better player and more naturally fit being played inside, in motion, and coming out of the Backfield rather than playing more than 30% Outside. You don't take guys who are naturally fitted and have great success elsewhere and then play them exclusively or close to exclusively at spots that they don't find the same success or are complete unknowns there. Shakir fell to the 5th Round because he was viewed exclusively as a Slot at the next level. As I said, in the Playoffs when we were hurting on the Outside, we tried Shakir there a little bit and he didn't produce. If it isn't broke, don't fix it. They're going to keep him where he was showing success rather than play him out of position.