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Everything posted by BillsFanForever19
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OJ Howard is the exception that everyone likes to try and make the rule. If you can only point to one guaranteed money vet FA signing that was released by Beane in the same year - out of all of his guaranteed money signings, that data doesn't make for a very good argument. Possible? Yes. Likely? No, extremely unlikely.
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Daequan Hardy was almost exclusively Drafted as a Kick Returner. And if you're arguing lack of production as a reason to not keep Hollins, I haven't the foggiest how you can say Hamler should be a bigger consideration. Hollins had 690 yards two seasons ago. Yes, last season, it was 251. But he was also playing on a PUTRID Falcons passing offense with a terrible QB and was hurt 4 games. You point to Hollins only going over 251 once. But Hamler? He hasn't had 251 yards total *combined* in the last 3 seasons. He didn't play a single snap last season, put up 165 yards in 2022, 74 yards in 2021, and 381 yards in 2020. Hell, if you combine ALL of Hamler's yardage since entering the league in 2020 - it's less than what Hollins did in 2022 alone. Mack Hollins was signed within the first couple days of Free Agency with a specific role in mind. He's often one of the first names Beane brings up when talking about the WR core. I think if you're hoping for Mack Hollins to be cut (for whatever reason), you're setting yourself up for disappointment.
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I don't see that. Hollins was brought in largely for his Special Teams experience/ability and for being an above average blocker from the WR position. MVS provides none of that. They'll both be here. It'll come down to Shorter or Claypool. Outside chance he keeps 7 and they both stick. Hamler has a Practice Squad ceiling. Like Isabella before him, no amount of good Pre-Season film with Trubisky/Buechele against 3rd stringers and players who will end up on the street is going to take the stink of his bust label off him, after being released by 3 teams in a year. It's without a doubt we'll be able to retain him on the Practice Squad, like it was after Isabella's strong Pre-Season. As opposed to Shorter or Claypool, where there's a higher chance we wouldn't be able to.
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That's why he's not in the lock list, even with his guaranteed money. It'll come down to how ready Tylan Grable looks. Even with how he looks in OTA's, Camp, and Pre-Season, the guarantees and his experience at OT will probably take precedent unless Grable looks great and is ahead of schedule. When it comes to OT3 or OT4, guys who don't look great are pretty standard league wide - even for us. See: David Quessenberry, Bobby Hart But either way, it doesn't have any barring on whether or not we kept Clapp. It would either be one OT or another.
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Looks like he'll be staying a Free Agent this season...
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The bottom line is neither David Edwards nor SVPG are going to be cut. We don't cut Draft Picks in their first year above Round 6. It's happened only once in the McBeane era (Vosean Joseph, after a redshirt year). SVPG was Drafted in Round 5. We don't cut players we sign to guaranteed money over 1-1.5m in the same offseason. It's happened only once in the McBeane era (OJ Howard). We signed Edwards to 2.95m guaranteed. David Edwards is a presumed starter at LG. At worst he'd be first OG off the bench. SVPG is the presumed backup at Center, with a small chance he could start. That's each players floor and ceiling, given their investment. Ultimately, it's a numbers game. The number we keep at OL is usually 9. Sometimes it's 10. It's generally 4 OT's and 5 Interior Lineman. Recently at Center, it's been a True Center (Morse) and a Backup that can be Center or Guard (Bates). Looking at the roster, I don't really see much of a path to keep Clapp: Dion Dawkins David Edwards Connor McGovern O'Cyrus Torrence Spencer Brown Ryan Van Demark SVPG That's 7 completely locked in. 4 IOL and 3 OT's. Leaving one OT and one IOL. Maybe an extra if we keep 10 this season. It comes down to: La'el Collins (Likely the 2nd Reserve OT at 1.5m guaranteed) Alec Anderson (Likely the 5th Interior OL and on the 53 all last season) Tylan Grable (Round 6 OT - likely to be the 10th OL if we keep 10, outside chance he beats out Collins as Reserve OT2) Will Clapp Richard Gouraige Travis Clayton (Round 7 OG) Keaton Bills Kevin Jarvis Gunner Britton Mike Edwards When it comes to our Centers, it's McGovern and SVPG, with each having flexibility to play Guard. Even if SVPG starts and McGovern goes back to Guard, it would be McGovern as the Backup Center. I can see a scenario where he isn't as good as SVPG, but I don't see a scenario where he simply can't play the position, even at a backup level. And instead of SVPG on the bench as one of the interior reserves, it would be Edwards. In Edwards is a guy who started 46 of 53 games before coming here, including every game for the Super Bowl Champion Rams, under Aaron Kromer. And like I said, we paid him about 3m guaranteed. If someone would come off the bench because of an injury at Center, it would be him at Guard with McGovern sliding over rather than putting in Clapp next to McGovern. They only guaranteed Clapp 287k and then Drafted SVPG after acquiring him. That really says all that needs to be said for what they think of him and the footing he has on this team. If there were a clear role for him he'd have been guaranteed more money and/or they wouldn't have Drafted SVPG. The clearest path for Clapp would be beating out Alec Anderson for the last interior spot. And I don't see that happening. They seem to really like him. And they aren't keeping 3 Centers and 6 IOL.
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Rasul Douglas - about his future with the bills?
BillsFanForever19 replied to The Wiz's topic in The Stadium Wall
Is he? We don't know what he wants or is looking for. He was on the short list for people we could logically extend to save cap space this offseason. But we opted to restructure his contract instead. Which said to me either a.) He wasn't interested in what we were offering without testing the market in a year or b.) We would rather see how this year goes and evaluate the position next season. Either way, him not showing up to OTA's is nothing to fret over. He did the same in Green Bay. It's voluntary. Some players just don't want to do it. He's under contract. He'll be here. We'll see how the year goes and what he wants at the end of it and go from there. No need to manufacture an issue that as far as we know, doesn't exist. -
I don't see that happening. SVPG becoming undeniable wouldn't lead to them keeping an extra OL that they normally wouldn't. In the event that SVPG did blow everyone's socks off, they'd move McGovern back to Guard and Edwards would take SVPG's presumed spot on the 53 as a reserve. If SVPG were to get hurt in that scenario, they'd shuffle the line by sliding McGovern to Center and put Edwards at Guard. I don't see a scenario where McGovern is so garbage at Center that they wouldn't even entrust him to be the Backup and that they'd prefer to have Clapp and McGovern on the Starting Line instead of McGovern and Edwards. Edwards is a Kromer favorite and a full time starter before last season. I don't see a scenario where he's going to fall on his face in Kromer's system. He was brought back at a pay raise because of Kromer's history with him and and belief in him. What makes McGovern a good Guard is what makes him a better fit as a Center. He's very good at holding the line and not letting people through. However, he's not good at pushing his man backwards. This is fine for a Center. But for a Guard, you want them to get push for runs to the Left side. Thus, the shift to Center - with Edwards to Guard who's better at pushing his man. I really don't see him being a decent Guard but an albatross at Center. Especially since that's the position he played in High School and College.
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I don't think the Chargers were completely blindsided by this. He was put on IR for a Heart Issue last season. This offseason, they signed Bradley Bozeman from Baltimore, who's started 77 of 96 games in his career. I take it you just assumed this and didn't look at who's still on the market for Centers. Unlike a lot of positions, the Center market still has some solid starting options available. Starting Centers like Connor Williams, Mason Cole, and (the other) Connor McGovern are still available as Free Agents. The Chargers have 26m in Cap Space still. They'll sign one of them if they don't think Bozeman's the guy. I don't think they'll have any interest in Clapp. We're not going to keep 3 Centers. McGovern is our Starting Center. He played the position in College and always felt he was more naturally fit there and has been itching to get back to it. If there were any doubt there, they'd have switched him back by now. SVPG is our Backup. He's as prepared as any Rookie possibly could be, being a 3 year starter at Georgia against the highest possible College competition. Neither are going to be cut. Clapp is a Camp Body, signed to no guarantees. He's only making this roster if one of them get hurt. If LA were to call, it's a no brainer. But I don't see them calling.
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When it comes to who's likely to stay, Beane's track record over the past 7 years prior overrules anyone's personal opinion of the players, IMO. Only once in all of the MANY signings he's made to my memory has he released a veteran FA from another team he's signed to guaranteed money in the same offseason (O.J. Howard). So if you're signed to guaranteed money, he did so with a role in mind and are very unlikely to be cut IMO. Let's look at those signed to guarantees over a million: Curtis Samuel - 15m guaranteed MVS - 2.25m guaranteed Mack Hollins - 1.1m guaranteed Hollins at 1.1m isn't as safe as the other two from a guaranteed money standpoint. But being that he was signed within the first couple days of FA, it's clear he's someone Beane targeted early for a specific role on the team. So to me, that makes him pretty safe, even if the guarantees aren't much. Another big tell with him is Draft investments. Like Howard being the one exception in all of the FA's signed when it comes to guaranteed money being cut, there's only ever been one Draft Pick he's ever released without being given a spot on the 53 from Rounds 1-5 (Vosean Joseph). With that in mind, you can point to Keon Coleman (obviously) and Justin Shorter being safe. So from a purely characteristic standpoint, based on history, Beane's 6 (as I believe 6 will be the number this year) would be: Keon Coleman Curtis Samuel Khalil Shakir MVS Mack Hollins Justin Shorter However, this scenario based on history would see Chase Claypool being cut. And if the reviews from OTA's are to be believed and he keeps on that path, I don't know how he'd not earn a spot on the 53. Which would mean Beane would have to make 1 uncharacteristic move to make him fit. Either he releases someone he gave guaranteed money to or he releases a prior to Round 6 Draft pick without ever being given a chance to develop on the roster. And given the investments made, it's pretty clear to me there's two options for that: Cut Mack Hollins or Cut Justin Shorter If I had to guess what's more likely between the two, it'd come down to the player they feel they'd more likely be able to get back on the Practice Squad. It's for this reason that KJ Hamler isn't even a consideration for me. If he's cut from a 3rd team and 3rd Strike in under a year, after being declared a bust by his Drafting team after a 2nd Round investment - no amount of Pre-Season game tape with Trubisky or Buechele is going to make him desirable to be signed to another teams 53, like Isabella before him. We know we'd easily get him back on the Practice Squad, which makes him an easy cut. On one hand, Hollins would be very desirable to teams looking for Special Teams help. As is often the case with teams snagging others for their 53, it's generally bottom of the roster guys for Teams help. With Hollins, you have an experienced vet who could jump right in cold and do that. On the other, Draft Picks from other teams who have traits like Shorter's Size and Speed combination that haven't been developed is also attractive to teams when it comes to poaching. But when push comes to shove, I believe they'll feel it's more likely they'll get Shorter back. So gut feeling, I believe the 53 man WR core will be: Keon Coleman Curtis Samuel Khalil Shakir MVS Chase Claypool Mack Hollins There is a scenario based on past history that we keep 7. It's something we've done 2 years under Beane in the past. And with the investments made, it would make sense that it would be a consideration. However, that was generally a scenario where the extra player (Kumerow) was kept exclusively for Special Teams and wasn't even really viewed as a WR (like Taiwan Jones was a 4th "RB"). I believe we'll have enough ST's at WR and other positions where that won't be necessary. And combined with having Kincaid, who is a WR with the TE label (which is why we only kept 5 last season), I don't see it as very likely that we'll carry not 1, but 2 more WR's than last season.
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I love the concept of telling players they need to shut up when they simply answer questions from a request from the media.
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10 NFL Holdouts for voluntary OTAs
BillsFanForever19 replied to BarleyNY's topic in The Stadium Wall
I mean, if your logic towards our room is applied, Jennings and Pearsall shouldn't mean anything. We paid Samuel 24m with 15 guaranteed. And you don't view him as a difference making starter. So Jennings at a much less amount of 15m with 10 guaranteed should be viewed even less, right?. And he's also a Slot WR, so that has no barring on the Outside. Like Samuel to Jennings, Pearsall is equal to Keon Coleman, taken at Pick 31 to Coleman's 33. So if Coleman is a concern and shouldn't be counted on - wouldn't it be the same for Pearsall in SF? And unlike Coleman, a True X, Pearsall is viewed as an Inside/Outside Tweener - more naturally fit as a Slot. Logan Thomas? How does signing a Backup TE for Kittle apply to anything? And you're looking at the CMAC deal all wrong. This extension isn't a bad thing for a possible Aiyuk deal in SF - it's actually a good thing. It makes getting a deal done with Aiyuk *more* likely, not less likely like you're implying. Currently, the 49ers have over 30m in Cap Space for this season. Ultimately, the consensus out of the Bay area is that Aiyuk will get done sometime this Summer and they're going to get out from Deebo's deal next offseason. And if the plan is to get out from Deebo next season, why would they move Aiyuk this offseason as well? This is an NFC Championship team looking to go back to the Super Bowl. They have the means to keep their Superstar core together and the CMAC deal makes it easier to do so. If the historic WR market makes it so they feel they can't in good conscience pay Aiyuk's asking price because it's so insane, when they have the means to, are looking to repeat, and Samuel isn't in their long term plans - you think *we're* going to pay that price tag and give up prime Draft compensation for the privilege to do so? -
They technically could do more with Josh's contract - but I don't see that happening. He's never restructured a contract multiple times in the same Offseason. I don't know the reasoning as to why he didn't do the full amount when he did, but there must have been a reason. And whatever it was, I think he would have just done it then if he was going to take more. We've pulled the cords on literally every release, restructure, or potential extension possible that could save us cap space already this offseason - save for just two. You could do a restructure of Matt Milano that could save us 2.4m and a restructure of Ed Oliver that could save us 3.9m. But much like restructuring Josh, the fact that we chose not to do those when we were doing literally EVERYTHING possible to create space says to me there's probably a reason he chose not to do those. So those three are options. But I'd be surprised if he did them. And ultimately, he's addressed every single spot on the roster that needed a replacement - save for one. Douglas replaced White. Hardy replaced Neal. But we never replaced Dane Jackson. And with how often Benford gets injured and Elam still being a question mark, I don't see them relying on UDFA and PS players to replace Dane Jackson. So that's the one spot I could see a move and we can probably use what little is left from Tre's money after the Rookie contracts, Practice Squad, and In Season Spending Pool is accounted for to address that.
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The Draft Picks will only cost about 2-3m. But they also need a few million to pay for the Practice Squad and a few million for in season spending.
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It's only a "shocking" downgrade if you're looking at Madden Ratings or how exciting the star power looks on a piece of paper. If you evaluate what this Offense looked like from the 2nd Half of last season through the playoffs, our Offense ran through Cook, Kincaid, and Shakir. What did the other two players on your list, Diggs and Davis, bring? Answer: Little to nothing. In fact, had Diggs not made a couple of key drops - we may have beaten the Chiefs and then who knows? It's clear as day "you're not on board with this year's moves". And that's a fine opinion to have. But "this year's moves" have been done and most of them aren't going anywhere. Chase Claypool, Justin Shorter, and KJ Hamler might all be cut (though i'd expect one of the first two to stick). But Beane isn't cutting Coleman, Samuel, MVS, or Hollins. And we only had 4 WR's exit the building needing to be replaced. And when you look at the production from Diggs/Davis last year that they'll be replacing, it would be very hard for Coleman and Samuel to bring less than what Diggs and Davis gave us in the 2nd Half and beyond last season when we were rolling. As for the "rebuild" - the answer is in Beane's own word. He's never said "I'll never rebuild with Josh". What he's said was that as long as he has Josh Allen, they're never fully in a true rebuild. But with *23* players exiting the building, a new DC (who may or may not be calling plays), essentially a new OC (as he never installed *his* playbook last season), other new coaches, 4/5 or 5/6 of a new WR core, a new(/old) starter at Defensive End, a new interior Offensive Line, 3/5 of a new DT rotation, an entirely new Safety core, a mainly new Special Teams core, and many other depth/rotation replacements - this simply IS, in his own words, a "transition year". Which is him admitting that this is as close to a rebuild as it can get, while still maintaining a Franchise QB. So is he "really going to do a rebuild in the middle of Josh's prime?". By definition, it already *is* a rebuild. We didn't really have a choice with the cap situation we were in. You can't replace the amount of players and coaches we replaced and NOT be rebuilding. Like it or not, and many of us don't, it just is what it is. Regardless of whether or not you're willing to accept reality.
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What to do with the post June $10 M that will be available
BillsFanForever19 replied to Magox's topic in The Stadium Wall
Also have to pay for the Practice Squad for the year. -
Knox is our standard hand in the dirt, on the line Tight End. Kincaid is only technically a Tight End. Like Kelce, he's really a Big Slot WR. He doesn't often put his hand down. WAY more often than not, Knox is on the field with Kincaid split out wide next to him. If there's a Tight End on the line, it's going to be Knox unless he needs a breather.
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I give my opinion and stance on almost everything on this board. Yes, I publicly stated we wouldn't trade Diggs or cut Hines and I took those L's and admitted to those L's. I still do. I was wrong on those. But to act as if those are the only opinions and stances I've taken this year and I've been wrong about everything is highly inaccurate. I've taken more hard-line stances on things that were met with similar opposition as those mistakes and were correct way more than incorrect. And as for this, I'm not saying it's 100% impossible or 100% won't happen. I'm saying it's incredibly unlikely for a number of different reasons and that the idea that's "this has been the plan all along" does not compute with what he's done and what he'd have to do, to do it. And honestly, I'd love to be wrong about this one too.
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Around and around we go... You are constantly connecting dots that do not connect. In a board full of pie in the sky posters, you are literally the only poster who thinks this is not only likely, but is practically guaranteeing it's going to happen. And if anyone disagrees with the likelihood of it happening, it means to you that the "love for Beane is deep" and we all love how he built the room and don't question whether or not it's going to work. That just doesn't compute to me. You can look at the state of the roster and what he's done so far and simultaneously wish that a.) he had gotten someone bigger and also b.) think it's very unlikely at this point that he will. Those thoughts are not mutually exclusive. And honestly, that's probably the vast majority of posters. He drafted Keon Coleman with the first pick in the 2nd Round. He gave Curtis Samuel a long term 24m contract with 15m guaranteed. He went out and signed Mack Hollins on Day 1 or Day 2 of FA to guaranteed money and a specific role. He signed MVS to guaranteed money and a specific role. He added Chase Claypool and KJ Hamler. He spent a 5th Round investment on Justin Shorter just last year and redshirted him in preparation for this season. That's SEVEN new WR's, with no less than 4 of them are guaranteed to be here. He's not cutting Coleman, Samuel, MVS, or Hollins. And we only had 4 spots to replace. If doing a big time trade now was "the plan" - there would have been multiple moves he made that he wouldn't have made. It's as simple as that. If he added an 8th new rosterable WR, he'd have to cut half of them and that's not going to happen.
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He was completely cleared. That's the bottom line. The cops investigated and didn't charge him. She didn't file a Civil Suit. And he's had no other issues. The WWE, UFC, and the NFL all wanted to sign him. They're all Billion dollar companies with PR teams where sexual assault is a no go. In the case of WWE and the UFC, they're publicly traded. They surely have PI's that got all of the information, much more than what's available to us. And they all felt he was safe to sign and in the WWE and NFL's case, did sign him. The UFC would as well, if he chose them.
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He's a developmental camp prospect. It's not like we had the option to sign someone who's never played Football before or we sign a Pro Bowler, and they went with Steveson over the Pro Bowler. It's like complaining about signing Undrafted Free Agents.
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Kendal Vickers isn't on the team anymore.
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Chris Hogan played a year of College Football at Monmouth though.
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Jordan Mailata just signed a 3 year, 66m contract extension with the Philadelphia Eagles. He had zero NFL experience and entered the league from Rugby. He's now a top paid, top performing Left Tackle in the NFL. Is that common? No. But you never know what you're going to get when you bet on athleticism. The Eagles and Eagles fans are sure glad they took a chance on an athletic guy with no experience. I can't imagine getting upset over signing a Camp Body. It has absolutely no bearing on anything. You act as though we would have acquired a Pro Bowl player at another position if we hadn't brought him in. It doesn't preclude any other signing. We just traded out a guy who had no shot at making the roster for someone who most likely wont. It's no risk, no guarantees, all reward.
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Really wild how he won the Gold medal. Got a 2 point grab to secure the win literally at the last second. https://youtu.be/fSXPmihrX3c?si=QpedPCJzdR1NfiFT