BillsFanForever19

"There are NOT 170 safeties in the Draft"? What kind of goal post moving is that? That's not the point. The point is a player taken at the Bottom of the 5th Round at Pick 170 is 9.9 times out of 10 not a starting quality prospect. Let alone expected to be a Starter in their Rookie year. This would be like complaining that Javon Solomon wasn't made ready to start last season. Or that Justin Shorter should have been expected to save us at WR the year before. You want to complain about us not addressing Safety more than we did this season? Fine. But being upset that the 170th pick in the Draft, at best our 4th Safety on the Depth Chart, wasn't being prepared to start from the jump is ridiculous.

This is what I mean when I talk about McDermott's "Week to Week" designation being a long term injury. He listed Milano, Bernard, and Kincaid as "Day to Day" injuries after the Falcons game. Weeks later and none of them have gotten a Full Practice and they're all Questionable for Sunday. Day to Day could be multiple weeks and Week to Week could be as many 4 (as we saw with Oliver) or more.

Not if the soft coverage scheme compounded by poor execution of it means the ball is out of the QB's hand and completed to a WR before they can get home. Pass rush metrics for Bosa are very good this season. But it's not resulting in Sacks bc of the coverage situation.

Max Hairston will take weeks before he starts, if he does. Jordan Hancock is an unknown. What something looks like on paper means nothing. And honestly, this isn't really any different than what we've had on field all season. And we've seen what it's brought us. A lot of these players aren't carrying the caché that their name implies.

You also have to take into account where he's picking when he takes these guys. 30 this year, 33 last year (28 before the trade down), 25 in 2023 (27 before the trade up), 23 in 2022 (25 before the trade up), and 30 in 2021. We're *consistently* picking outside of the forecasted number of prospects with 1st Round Grades (regardless of Beane's yearly "we got the last guy on the board we had a 1st round grade on" bs rhetoric). Also, each time we traded out of our 1st, we've given teams Justin Jefferson and Patrick Mahomes. That also has to be taken into account when discussing our 1st's. Things continue as they are and we'll finally be in the position to land a Difference Maker or at least be able to actually trade up for one. Like I don't understand how everyone agrees we're in serious trouble all across the board - but also somehow believe we'll be picking in the same spot. And we want to LEAP at giving away the first time we're potentially in a position to get a true difference maker since 2019 - without so much as a pause to think of the reprecussions? Last year, Davante Adams went for a 2nd at the Deadline. Olave has an extra year on his contract that Adams didn't. Offer them a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year, plus one of Elijah Moore, Curtis Samuel (if they'd take him), or hell, even throw them Keon Coleman if they want. Hold on to that 1st, if you can. That's what happens when you hire a good Coach and spend the past 3 years Drafting an All-Pro CB, a Franchise QB, and a STUD OT in 3 straight Drafts. They made the most out of their high Draft picks when they had them.

It has the potential to be even higher than 19. 19 would imply a First Round out. With us looking the way we are, the Patriots looking the way they are (after great Drafting over the past few years and new good Coaching), and them now having a game and a half up on us - the Division looks like a stretch and I think us being a for sure Wild Card isn't accurate. Like I don't mean to sound like a Debbie Downer (which is kind of funny bc it's usually the other way around between you and I), but realistically, our wins come against teams with a combined record of 3 wins and 24 losses. And some of them were dogfights. We just came off a beat down from a .500 team, down 2/3 of their Top 3 WR's, that got shut out by the team we're playing this week 30-0 earlier in the season, and followed up their best down of us by looking completely outmatched by a 49ers team with a Backup QB. The flaws on this team are far too great for one Chris Olave to turn us from what we are to a contender. I do want him but I fear even making a move as big as that is too little, too late. And I greatly fear his injury history. He has had FOUR known concussions since 2022. Obtaining him for a 1st that could very well be a Top 16 pick, we lose him, and lose the pick would be a nightmare. And a very real possibility. I do agree with you that something needs to be done. And like you (and pretty much everyone) I do want Olave. And if Beane decided the gamble was worth it and sent a 1st, I'd be happy we got him and hope for the best. But I'd be much happier with a deal as high as a 2nd this year, a 2nd next year, and a player. Which is a very good offer that could and should get it done.

He must have slept with a relative of every GM and every Head Coach in the league then. You know what the difference between Justin Simmons and Jordan Poyer is? We watched Jordan Poyer's decline first hand in Buffalo and Miami wherein Simmons was in another division and another conference. So you and others think of him as the "great" Justin Simmons! It's the same thing. A once All Pro that has seen injuries and time catch up to them where their name carries *way* more caché than the performance on the field at this point. Last season, Justin Simmons ranked 117th amongst all Strong Safeties in the league. Jordan Poyer ranked 114th amongst Free Safeties. Safety is a weak spot amongst many teams in the league and many have dealt with injuries like us. Yet no one has called on him. He's not Justin Simmons anymore.

Anyone they got off another team's Practice Squad wouldn't be trusted to come in and immediately start either. They'd need time getting up to speed with the Defense, just as Hairston will. If someone were to step in between now and then for White until Hairston were ready, it would be Ja'Marcus Ingram or Dane Jackson off our own Practice Squad before someone from another team's Squad.

That's wonderful! So certainly since 2024, we have to still be #1, right? Or at least still in the Top 5? Because that would be some really concerning metrics that would lend credence to OP's point that the scheme has been figured out if we were #1 since 2018, but since 2024 weren't even in the Top 10...

You assume it's going to be a Late First Round Pick. From what we've seen over the past couple weeks that's FAR from a guarantee. If this keeps up, next year's 1st will be much closer to a mid 1st than a late 1st. Our "bend but don't break defense" is now simply a broken Defense. And it's not just a talent issue. The code has been cracked on McDermott's "exotic" scheme, after showing the same looks in the league for a decade plus. Do I want Olave? Yes. But we're not in a Rams situation where we're a contender and we just need a piece like him to take us over the top. I don't think Olave alone puts us back to Championship contender. We need a piece like him to simply get back to having a chance to compete and not having difficulties or straight up losing to poor teams. And if you look at his history, he has concussion issues and misses a fair amount of time. So yeah, I'm concerned about giving up a 1st, losing him and going back to what we saw the past couple weeks, and then not even having our reward for a lackluster season on top of it. If Beane decided to pull the trigger on the 1st for him, I wouldn't be upset. But there's a lot of variables involved. I also have a hard time giving away a 1st for a guy unless we've got him longer than a year and a half. Also, to the point that "who cares about a 1st?", surely pointing to what we've gotten from the picks we've made there over the past few years - you also have to take into account the last time we did that (the Diggs trade), we gave up the pick used to pick Justin Jefferson. The time before that we gave up the pick that became Patrick Mahomes.

That's my biggest concern - Beane not allowing people to say the simple morning radio host was right and he the prolific GM of the team was wrong. Especially in the arrogant way he went about that exchange. If we were to make a move, I could easily see the national media replaying that outburst back and calling him out for it. I worry he doesn't have the ability to swallow his pride and eat that kind of humble pie. Everyone wants Olave in a Bills uniform. Me included. If it were a 1 year rental, it would be easier. But with a full year and a half under contract - it won't be a small price. We'd probably have to include Samuel to help clear space as well, who has negative trade value. Which would make the compensation even more. The price for that would be fairly steep. Would Beane make that kind of move for a guy he only has for a year and a half with no guarantee beyond that? On the flip side, would he feel comfortable locking him up long term before seeing how he fits in the Offense and given his injury history? And given his history and the way the team looks, there's a scenario where you lose him and potentially the highest 1st we've had in a while. Lots of variables that make it tricky, even without taking into account the humility he'd have to show. If we can get it done for something like a 2nd in 2026 and a 3rd (maybe a 2nd if we have to) in 2027 with Samuel, i'd pull the trigger. But idk about a 1st and that might be a deal breaker. Fingers crossed though.

Watson is coming off an ACL tear and has had his Practice Window opened, but has yet to be activated. In a vacuum, I like Watson as a player. But asking him to learn a new playbook and develop chemistry with a new QB mid-season, while trying to get his feet back under him after a torn ACL is a HUGE ask. And we have no idea what he looks like coming off of the Torn ACL.

A couple days ago you posted this and I was a little taken aback that you made an acquisition post that was somewhat based in realism (although I'm out on 33 y/o Lockett). Obtaining Olave and elevating Davis to replace Moore and Shavers spots on the 53 seems to me the best slightly possible scenario we could hope for. And with one tweet from a legit reporter that we may be in the market and discussion about Olave/Shaheed by another - the realism is gone. We have a chance to get one of them and we should be thrilled if we're able to pull one off. But both? No way. They aren't trading both of them. The tweet talks about how they're unlikely to be able to keep both, so one *may* be traded to help ensure the other. They won't trade both. Even if they did, we wouldn't sign up for multiple WR's that need to learn the playbook and develop chemistry with Josh mid-season. Fingers crossed we can make a deal with New Orleans. But it won't be that one.

I knew Palmer and Jones would be out when McDermott hit 'em with the "Week to Week" designation before the Bye. Frustrated that Kincaid, Bernard, Milano, and Samuel still haven't gotten a Full Practice - in almost two weeks after he designated them all "Day to Day". The feeling he gave after the Falcons game and before the Bye was that we should have everyone back, save for Palmer and Jones. In McDermott's world, "Day to Day" means Weeks and "Week to Week" means Months.