GASabresIUFan

What is the cap hit if he is traded? What is a 33 year old possibly declining WR with a huge contract even worth?

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bills-stefon-diggs-gives-another-indication-he-wants-out-of-buffalo-with-cryptic-post/ Dear Stef, We made you one of the highest paid players in the NFL. We gave you an opportunity to play with one of the best QB's in the NFL who is on his way to a HOF career. Grow up jerk and play football. Stop whining already. Geez!

Updated to reflect the 5.1 cap savings from Dawkins.

Does the QB matter, but nearly as much as a player’s role in the offense. Last season, Shakir, as out 4th WR/TE option equalled Samuel’s production on 50% of the targets. Do you really think that Samuel will get 90+ targets in Buffalo like he did in Wash with Shakir, Kincaid and Diggs already in the offense? If you do I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. Everyone keeps saying with Josh as his QB his number will explode. They won’t because his targets are likely to fall dramatically because he’s now at best the 4th best option instead of a top 2 or 3 option. So could his YAC/R improve? Maybe. Will his yards/r improve? Maybe, but probably not significantly. Even when playing with Brady as OC before his yards/r was 11.1 vs his career of 10.7. So how many targets can Samuel expect in our offense? As the 4th TE/WR option and during Josh’s tenure over the last 5 seasons, the 4th option averaged 54 catches a season. The 3rd option averaged 66. So let’s give Samuel the benefit of the doubt. In our offense, matching his career best in catch % (79) and yard/r (12.7), and getting 3rd option targets, we can hope for about 660 yards. What is more likely is he’ll have about 54 targets, convert at near his career rate of 65.4% and gain near his career yards/r of 10.7 for a total of 378 yards. Is that really worth $8 mill? The best case scenario for Samuel in this offense is that they move Shakir to the boundary, make Samuel the starting slot receiver and reduce Digg’s targets 30-40 from the 160 he’s averaged over the last 4 years. Samuel would still be the 4th option but have a better chance of giving the Bills 600 yards. However, Kincaid and Shakir will see more targets as well, especially when Brady begins to use Kincaid in a Kelce kind of role. I know people are excited about a big $ WR signing, but instead of whining at me for disagreeing with the group think that Samuel is the second coming, take some friggin time, research the stats, be honest about his potential role in the offense, and then do the math as I have.

Samuel stats have been similar to last year regardless if it was Cam Newton or Teddy Bridgewater or whomever played in Wash.

Shakir vs Samuel in 2023 Shakir 39/45, 611 yds, 2 TDs, 15.7 yds/r, Catch % 86.7, 17 catches of 20+, 282 yds YAC, 7.2 yds yac/r, 0 drops (The 7.2 tds yac/r was 3rd in the NFL for receivers with 20 or more receptions.) Samuel 62/91, 613 yds, 4 TDs, 9.9 yds/r, Catch % 68.1, 11 catches of 20+, 260 yds YAC, 4.2 yds yac/r, 2 drops

KC gets a speedster to stretch the field. Shocking!

I’m very happy in general with McD and Beane. I wrote that the calls here to fire McD foolish (to put it nicely). I also wrote that I was very happy with the work Beane did this offseason except the 2 WR signings. So your characterization of this thread is completely wrong. Not a surprise really.

The last two years 75% of his snaps were in the slot. He is no longer any type of threat from the outside. Sorry but that is the fact. I know you and others are desperate for this to be a great signing that makes this offense more dangerous. I get it, but his stats from the last two years say that isn’t what we are getting. We are getting a slot receiver who isn’t as good as what we already have. Will he get snaps when Shakir and Diggs are on the field? Sure, but he’ll be the 4th, 5th or 6th option on those downs. To me that’s a waste of cap resources.

No he’s not. Shakir is the slot receiver and is already a better player than Samuel. We don’t have the necessary boundary WR to replace Davis and that is the just one of the problems with signing Samuel.

My anger is about spending limited cap $ on a redundant asset. Had he spent $8 mill on a boundary receiver who could stretch the field, I might be disappointed we weren’t going young, but I’d be glad we filled an obvious roster hole. Samuel is also not as good as the people here think he is.

Who stretches the field? The slow old tall guy or the new underneath guy who isn’t as good as the slot guy we already have or the No.1 guy who could stretch the field last year?

Probably. Wasn’t Hodgins just released?

Lol. He’s a slot receiver. He had 7 carries last year. 7! I’d love this signing if we didn’t have a better player already in slot. Had Beane signed someone like Samuel when Beasley left I’d be happy as anyone else here, but Shakir has developed into a very good player, who was one our best offensive players down the stretch last season. To me this is just over priced depth with money that would be better spent elsewhere.

Edelman wasn’t on the team Amendola’s last year on NE in 2017. Sorry Charlie check your facts. Also Gronk had 592 yards on 39 catches in 2013. Again look up your stats.

He’s not even that. He is a 75% slot guy who plays outside some, but more often in the backfield.

The last year they played together Edelman had 1100 yards and Amendola 240. The best year they had together was Edelman 1050 yards to Amendola 650, but they had no decent boundary receivers.

By the way, Samuel spent 75% of his time the last two years in the slot. Last I looked that was where Shakir excels.

So? And he makes 8 times what Shakir does and Shakir is already a better player. The development of Shakir and Kincaid proved to me that we no longer needed to waste FA on WRs from other organizations. Instead we need to draft our own cost controlled talent. I know people here love the shinny new toy. However at best Samuel is our 4th best receiving option (and maybe 5th behind Cook). When the early draft pick outplays him and Samuel becomes our 6th or 7th best option, how will y’all feel about his $8 mill price tag when he’s seeing 3 balls a game?

I’d love to be wrong, but I doubt I will be. Go compare Samuel’s stats to Shakir’s. Shakir is taller, has similar speed and is significantly more clutch. Shakir averages 50% more yards per catch than Samuel. What does Samuel being that we don’t already have? Nothing.

Davis - Yards/Reception for his career 16.7. Yards/game 42.7. Success % 51.5 Samuel - Yards/reception for his career 10.7. Yards/game 37.2. Success % 48 Not sure how he is an upgrade on anything. He doesn’t stretch the field as well as Davis, he does gain more yards despite more catches, and he doesn’t help 1st downs at a greater rate than Davis. Do you know the other thing he doesn’t do as well as Davis? He doesn’t stay as healthy.

I didn’t want any WR FAs. The stats show that they usually underperform their contracts and we already have Kincaid, Diggs and Shakir. We have the underneath stuff covered. Samuel is a 650 yards receiver who doesn’t win catch battles. A Rookie receiver drafted 20-40 over the last 5 years has averaged about 700 yards as a rookie. We need someone who can stretch the field, not another mediocre underneath presence. Now play this out. What will the people on this board say if we draft someone like Mitchell or Worthy at 28 and they drive Samuel to the bench? What will they say when Samuel drops some key 3rd down catches, which he does with regularity? They’ll say why did Beane waste money of this guy. I was really happy with how this offseason was going, but these two terrible WR signings make me really wonder what Beane is doing for the offense.

So what was the compliant about Diggs, Shakir and Kincaid after the season? Why it was that they were all underneath players and that we needed some who could stretched the field. What does Beane give us? Why another underneath player (Samuel) and a tall older slow WR (Hollins), neither of which stretch the field. These signings make no sense at all when given the back drop of what the Bills were allegedly trying to do this off-season, aka get younger, cheaper and hopefully more talented.

We got the wrong Samuel. Y'all will be hating this signing by mid-season. He was supposed to be able to stretch the field when he came our of college, but all he is a mediocre version of Diggs who can run a jet sweep occasionally. This is a waste of 15 million. I was all onboard with Beane finally make this team younger and cheaper, but instead he wastes money on two exceedingly mediocre WRs.

When I look at the roster I see 40 slots pretty much locked in already for next season. Of those 40 I see 5 guys who could potentially get cut (Martin, Shorter, Anderson, Van Denmark and Spector), with Martin being the most vulnerable. The only starting job still up for grabs are the replacements for Davis and Poyer at WR & S respectively. I think Beane's biggest remain move before the draft will be getting a replacement for Poyer (I'm assuming the Rapp is Hyde's replacement). Sadly, the FA safety market is getting pretty thin. How much for Quandre Diggs on a 1 yr deal? Could Beane still be looking to add a significant piece the defensive front?