GASabresIUFan

Raw speed isn't everything even in the NFL Here are 4 Bills, recent past and present, with their combine time and their career yards/catch 1. 4.54 - 16.7 2. 4.43 - 15.8 3. 4.46 - 12.3 4. 4.31 - 10.7 Any guesses? 1. Gabe Davis 2. Shakir 3. Diggs 4. Samuel Clearly there is more to it than just raw speed or Samuel would have the most yards per catch. QB play, position, usage within the offense etc... plays into the numbers. Samuel has been stuck as a slot receiver on mostly mediocre to bad teams. Maybe he finally gets a shot as a boundary receiver. Davis made the most of his catches, but sadly he only caught 55% of his targets over the last 4 years. Shakir's ability to make big plays from the slot is very encouraging going forward.

I agree which is why I said Johnson makes the team even if Davis wins the RB2 job. Like Cook and Davis, Johnson runs hard and can catch the ball out of the backfield. Unlike last season, we'll have 3 backs that the coaches can insert without changing the game plan.

Before the draft Beane said he didn’t have 28 players with a first rd grade and then traded down because of it. Others have said that this draft class only has about 150 players with a draft-able grade. I know from the NHL, most teams don’t have 224 players on their draft day lists. My guess is Beane only had 160-180 on his draft board with another 100 on his priority UDFA list. I do wonder what goes into the making the list. I imagine the following steps 1. The scouts create a list of 350-400 eligible players and then grade each player from 1-400 based on the combine, film, college coaches info and live viewings. 2. Edit the list based on medical or character issues. 3. Beane and the higher ups edit the list again after the combine, interviews and the senior bowl. I think Beane here upgrades kids on intelligence and leadership. This draft was full of more veteran players who were leaders on their college teams and who excelled at the senior bowl. 4. Beane meets with the coaches to discuss team needs and to get coaches feedback on how someone might or might not fit their system. My guess is team needs often serve as a tiebreaker between similarly grades players. This was clearly a needs based draft for the Bills, but I don’t see any real “reaches” because of it. Some have mentioned Carter was a reach, but Kiper had him 93rd. 5. Beane then tiers the players by grade to help him decided when to move up and back. I am surprised by how close Beane’s board was to Kiper’s Top 150 Pick 33 Coleman; MK 33 Pick 60 Bishop; MK 61 Pick 95 Carter; MK 93 Pick 128 Davis; MK 133 Pick 141 Van Pran; MK 120

Great video. Interesting how much team need played in this draft. Also good insight into how Beane drafts players; intelligence, leadership and character plays a big role. Coleman and Bishop are class A athletes but clearly hard workers. David, Carter and Van Pran, their leadership and intelligence were huge reasons Beane wanted them. After that he was clearly looking for guys that had something special. In hockey, it would be their shot or their skating that was NHL caliber. Here they were looking something each guy brought athletically like Hardy punt return skill or Solomon’s ability to set up OL to get to the QB or the British kid’s freak athletic ability. Best thing about the video it was it gave you something to root for with each kid. Coleman is a character, but he clearly does his film work to make himself better. Kincaid clearly told Beane how hard Bishop was to play against. Carter looks like he could be President. The two players I really love in this draft are Ray Davis and Van Pran. I loathe UK, but Davis impressed me every time I watched him play. He is a play to whistle type of RB and he and Cook are going to have a ball together. They will make each other work harder and be better. Van Pran is special. I don’t know of it will translate to the pros, but he is the best Center I’ve seen at UGA in the last 30 years. My guess is Cook had some nice things to say.

Me thinks Worthy won't be enough to solve their WR issues.

Cook will definitely see more targets this year as an extension of the running game. When Brady was in Carolina, Mike Davis had 70 targets and RB group had 100. My first thought on Claypool is that he has no chance of being the WR3. However, when drafted he had very good speed. (4.42 40 and 1.52 10). For a man 6'4 240 that is really trucking. Assuming he has his head on straight and will gladly assumes any role given to him, I can see him and Coleman sharing the 3/4 roles much like Emmanuel and Davis did in 2021. That year Diggs had 164 targets, Beasley 112, Sanders 72, Knox 71, Davis 63 and Singletary 50. This season I can see a more even distribution between Shakir, Kincaid and Samuel of 100-120 targets each, with Cook, Claypool and Coleman receiving 60 + targets each. It's really up to Claypool for that scenario to come to pass. Tomlin let him go because of his inconsistency. He has struggled to get on the field the last two years, but at 25 years old and a minimum contract, he is a risk worth taking.

Here are PFF's 2023 grades (Yes, I know it's not the end all and be all, but at least it's an indication of where a player is at) Hyde 64.4 Poyer 73 Edwards 56.5 Rapp 56.4 Simmons 67.9 Jackson 58.6 Both Edwards and Rapp came in as starters to replace injured players on their teams last season and did fairly well. However, If I were Beane, the safety group is our worst position group and really could use another good player. I love the idea of using the June 1 savings on someone like Simmons. Having Simmons, with Rapp, Edwards and Bishop would create a huge competition for a starting job between the 4 and may the best players win. If Rapp and Edwards win the jobs, great! I'd feel much better knowing they earned their PT instead of having starting jobs handed to them.

I thought that was Grammar Hamlin. If Damar isn't going to make the team, the Bills should hire him in the organization as a community out-reach director.

Absolutely. On my man cave wall I have autographed photos of Marino, Montana, and Steve Largent to go with Joe Ferguson, Jack Kemp, Andre Reed and other Bills. The GOAT is the Goat. Having players you respect doesn’t diminish your affection for the Bills.

Actually that’s not what Beane did with Harty and Sherfield. Beane gave Sherfield a one year guaranteed contract at 1.77 and Harty a 2 yr 9 mill deal with 5 guaranteed. Both were given little to no competition to make the roster and both failed miserably. They were ill used by the OCs and performed lousy when called upon. Did you know Harty was the 13th highest paid Bill last year? This year the only FA WR guaranteed a roster spot is Samuel who has been a productive NFL player. Claypool, Hamler, Isabella, Cephus and even Hollins are guaranteed nothing. Hollins deal is for 2.6, but his dead cap is a manageable 1.1. As to Metcalf, Buffalo isn’t acquiring him. His base salary is 13 mill. Even with Tre’s money, Buffalo can’t afford him. I also doubt Beane would have an interest. Beane has stated time and again that this is a transition year. This year is about retooling while getting our financial house in order. Add Metclaf for 31 mill over the next two years just doesn’t fit with Beane’s stated plan. PS: I like Metcalf and think he’d do well with Josh. We simply can’t afford him.

I thought LB would be Beane most stable position depth chart this off-season. the 4 returnees all played well last season and IMHO looked to need not much help. Instead Beane added Morrow, then drafted Ulofoshio and then added even more depth in Deion Jones. Now we have 7 LBs who one can make an argument could (should?) make the team. If memory serves we only carried 5 last season. Why so many? I think there are 2 possible explanations besides simple camp depth. First, is Milano not recovering as well as they hoped. If this is the case, the signings of Morrow and Jones make sense. Second, is McD contemplating using more of a traditional 4-3 this season? If this is the case, carrying 6 LBs next season again makes sense. If Jones has a good camp, Spector won't last too long on the PS.

The NFL stands for Not For Long. 1. Van Pran - 10 year plus career+ 2. Bishop - 10 year career. Good safeties can easily play into their 30s 3. Coleman - receivers seem to burn out in their early 30s. 7-8 years After those 3, it’s hard a gauge 4. Carter - it will depend if he can develop into a starter. As a rotational player maybe 5-6 years, although Harrison Phillips is playing good ball since he left. 5. Davis - He plays out his rookie deal and then maybe plays a year or two elsewhere. Too much tread already off the tire. 6. Solomon and Ulofoshio. Odds are they don’t even play out their rookie deals. Ulofoshio is older and Solomon small for his position. 7. Hardy. Feels like the Andy Isabella of CBs. Lots of years on practice squads. 8. The two OTs. They won’t play a down in the NFL.

I’ve been arguing with the folks here who want us to add a name WR. They wanted Beane to acquire Aiyuk or Metcalf or OBJ or “insert the name of your favorite FA here.” I argued that given our budget constraints that Beane wasn’t going that route. He was finally going to develop and rely on our own receivers. He has to a certain extent. The starters are going to feature 3 internal guys in Coleman, Kincaid and Shakir all with two years or less of experience. Beane is Beane and he has signed 5 veteran receivers. One former Brady protege Curtis Samuel who brings vet experience, position flexibility and speed. He also brought in special teams ace Hollins who adds a big receiver to the WR group. The other 3 are still young former top prospects who for various reasons haven’t reached their potential. They are 1. Chase Claypool, 25. The former 2nd rd pick has 2 800+ yard seasons, but hasn’t found a good fit (bad attitude on his part?) the last two years. 2. Quintez Cephus, 26. Former 5th pick who had a solid rookie year but then injuries and a gambling suspension derailed a promising start. 3. KJ Hamler, 24. Speedy receiver and former 2nd rd pick whose career has been beset with major injuries but hopefully is now healthy. Beane is clearly throwing spaghetti at the wall and hoping one of these guys or rookie 5th rd pick (2023) Shorter sticks. I’d have preferred that Beane go GB style and draft more receivers, but for a team on a budget Beane’s is a reasonable approach. He’ll look like a genius if one of them really emerges and makes a contribution.

You can’t really include Rice for KC because he is going to jail. However, you need to add Worthy. I think you should add GB to your list and Houston.

That’s why Hollins was signed.