Great discussion. Here's why I don't think they'll drop off a cliff despite eroding talent: 1.) They do not turn the ball over 2.) They do not commit penalties I looked at this briefly, (more knowledgeable posters can check), but every year, the Cheats finish top tier in both those categories. These are team characteristics that reflects coaching and organizational stability. Despite decades of turnover, this has been constant for N.E. under the hoodie and I don’t expect to change in the upcoming year. I think a team with average talent who does these two things consistently wins at least 6 games a year – games against dumpster fires are a lock. Add a top-10 defense, and you’re in enough games to pull out 2 to 4 more (depending on how the ball bounces). Subsequently, I see the Cheats being an 8 – 10 win team this year. The real question is whether the Bills can eliminate the unforced errors (drops, fumbles, penalties, and bone-headed plays) that cost them the division and the WC game last year. The Bills have a great coach and are stock full of ascending young talent. If they can (and I think they will), the division should be a lock. Great thread.