Beck Water

Interesting. As far as fan expectations, fans will always expect first rounders to contribute strongly, starting their first year. As far as fan expectations being realistic - Beane has a draft pattern of trying to overcompensate for drafting late in the first by choosing high ceiling/low floor kind of guys. Rousseau was an example of that - a player who had a lot of raw physical talent and had shown potential, but had actually had played very little college ball. 15 games, that's it. Rousseau looks like a decent contributor now, but it took him a while to get there. Elam IMO was an example of that - a physically talented fast guy, who needed to take a big step in his actual coverage skills to play at the NFL level. And of course, the ultimate example was Josh Allen. Anyway I see Keon as another of Beane's "high ceiling, low floor" rifle shots. He's big, he can box out like a basketball player ('cuz he was one) - can't coach size and physicality - and he needed a lot of work on his route running and release moves.

Well...it does roll that way sometimes (regression in 2nd season). Look at Kincaid.

This is well and clearly put. To repeat something I posted elsewhere in support: McDermott's defense is built to depend upon players who understand their role on each play and execute flawlessly rather than physically superior stars. It breaks down when we have a player who ad-libs outside his role. Example: Jordan Phillips in 2019. As a 3T on the Bills #2 ranked D, he had a career year with 9.5 sacks. But that same D was 18th in the league for rush Y/A and one reason for that was Phillips being a bit too quick to head for the QB, rather than maintaining gap integrity against the run. The dependence on everyone on defense knowing and doing their job is how the Bills manage years like 2023 where the Bills D was #4 for points given up without a single defender who received all-pro or pro bowl honors. In contrast, the Ravens #1 defense had 2 1st team all pro honors and 4 pro bowlers. The #2 Chiefs had 2 1st team all pro and a pro bowler. And the #3 49ers had a 1st team all pro and 4 pro bowlers. #5 Cowboys, a 1st team all pro and 3 pro-bowlers. #6 Steelers a 1st team all pro and 2 pro bowlers. One can argue about the significance of pro bowls or the voting process, but in the bottom line they both recognize what Emmanuel Acho (I think) called "freakazoids", players who have athletic abilities that let them make game changing plays most players at their position simply couldn't. The Bills D manages to be solid (most of the time) without freakazoids, because guys know and do their job. And when it's "next man up" with guys who don't know their roles and execute near flawlessly, we get badly gashed. Example: 2024 reg season Ravens game featuring Baylon Spector at MLB, Dorian Williams at OLB, and Cam Lewis at Nickle and then Rapp went out and Cole Bishop came in for him. 471 yds, 271 on the ground, no interceptions, 1 sack for 1 yd. Ugly all around.

Brah.....weird choice of example to criticize McDermott's mindset. AJ Klein was out there playing MLB - the "QB of the defense". That was Dorian Williams rookie year, when he couldn't figure out his own assignment starting at OLB with Bernard barking in his ear like a seal. Dorian Williams could no more have taken on the MLB role in that game than he could have flapped his arms and flown over the stadium. It would have been a total CF.

Exactly. Spencer Brown would be another rookie who played. To play under McDermott, especially on defense, the rookie has to play better than the alternative. And that isn't just "display more physical talent", that's know the playbook, know their assignment in the playbook, and be able to read and interpret their keys pre and post snap during the stress and sheer physical exertion of an actual game. What people don't seem to take into account when they say "McDermott won't play rookies" (or "Levy didn't play rookies" for that matter) is that since 2019, the Bills have had a top-10 defense (on points) every year but 2020 (when they were dealing with a shitton of of turnovers and the offense was so hot the D may have relaxed a bit) and 2024 (when they were 11th by 4 points with a meaningless Week 18 game). 4 of those 6 years, the D was top-5 on points. In the same period of time, the number of defenders recognized with pro-bowl or all-pro honors can be counted on one hand. Tre' White and Edmunds (2x). Poyer (2x). Milano. I think that's it. 2 years, it's been "no one". Wrap your mind around that - a #4 and a #10 offense with zero, zip, zilch, none, no defensive players recognized by people around the league as top-notch. That's because the primary thing for a defender in this defense, is to be assignment-sound and work together. What does that mean? We've had some posters here who've pulled back the curtain a bit - @HoofHearted, @Buffalo716, sometimes @Simon (who quietly played ball into middle age), I'm sure I'm missing some. It's not just the offensive formation and the plays the opposing offense tends to run. It's being attuned to dozens of little tells pre-snap. Spacing. Hand position. Head position. Foot position. And then after the snap, each defender's assignment changes depending on what routes are actually run and how they are run. And the defensive players communicate with each other post-snap using body language just as the receivers and QB communicate. I remember a play, against NE I think it was, when Hyde took a horrible angle and a play went for a big gain. One of the film guys broke down the play and pointed out that Dodson, filling in at LB, had mis-directed Hyde with body language that conveyed to Hyde "take the other gap, I've got this one", except from his body position and leverage, he didn't. So Hyde started for what should have been the open side and had to put on the brakes and chase the play. That's part of what's meant when McDermott says something like "I can't put someone out there the other players don't trust" - it's not just knowing the assignment pre snap then how it changes post snap depending on what the skill players do, it's communicating clearly and correctly with the other defenders through body language and positioning, while not giving away the defensive call with your own pre-snap "tells". See above. I think what McDermott means there is not some intangible film room/locker room rappore kind of trust but a tangible "is he assignment sound pre and post snap? Does he communicate during the play so the other defenders can react appropriately? Does he interpret the communication he's getting and react appropriately?" This is all taking place while these guys are putting out peak physical effort play after play, and it takes a while to become second nature. And for some players (*cough* Elam *cough*) maybe it never will. And I think what McDermott means when he says it starts to affect the way the other guys play is, they try to compensate. If he can't trust what the LB is communicating, the safety will hang back and wait to see which gap the runner takes, leading to a surer tackle, but a bigger gain. A 'freakazoid' safety could commit and recover and make the play. Our guys can't.

Same was true of 'Nard Dog himself his rookie year. The 1 game he started (that close loss to the Jets) did NOT make me optimistic when McDermott announced an MLB competition between Bernard, Spector, and Dodson (Williams was never in it, and Klein fell out rapidly if he was in at all) But he came out his second year and Did That Thing. And Williams was OK last season - not Milano but OK We'll see on Bishop but there's a pretty strong history of defenders being Lost in Space in McDermott's system their 1st season and doing much better their 2nd. Lord knows we need him to.

Never say never, but that would probably be a bad sign. When Douglas was injured last season, Ingram came in to finish the game. But after that, it was Elam. Ingram was ahead of Elam to be game day active because of Ingram's building ST chops, not because the Bills thought he was a better CB Ingram has started one game at CB - the Week 18 game vs NE when we were resting players

I don't know a thing about what AB did or didn't do. But at least around here, police have to have evidence before the prosecutor will pay attention. And then the prosecutor, oft to the frustration of the police, wants a case they feel they can win. So I'm not sure where the "police and prosecutors initially throw everything at the wall and see what sticks" notion comes from. Generally speaking.

OK...but were you slamming your body full force into other large athletic men for hours every week and also having them slam into you and land on you and likely try to wrench you around and aggravate it? 'Cuz I don't think that helps. And also, there are back injuries and back injuries and none of us know which this was. I could be nuts, but I didn't think his play was that far off the first half of the season, except when he had Baylon Spector and Dorian Williams at LB It's pretty common for older guys that the dings and dents of the season add up and by midseason they're pretty weighed down (my opinion what happened to Diggs his last two seasons in B'lo). Then add something serious enough to keep a player out of a couple games and ...toast.

I think that's an example of "correlation not causation". Gisele filed for divorce when Brady said he'd retire, only to come back for one more season.

It's right there in the injury report. He injured his back against the Rams in December. Missed two games, played the week after, limited snaps week 18 when we were resting folks. I dunno about you, but when I've injured my back, 4 weeks out is when it starts to improve from screaming at me constantly no matter what I do, to allowing me to sit politely in certain positions and stand politely, and only screaming at me when I go from one to the other. By 6 weeks out I can walk OK if I'm smooth and careful and the screaming my back does has improved to a sharp yelp or 3. Football players are a different breed, but I don't think you need a magnifying glass to connect the dots there.

Going back and reading what I wrote, I see how it lends itself to your interpretation. I thought I'd been clearer that I thought he was washed by the end of last season. (I also thought that the Bills defense as a whole had a Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day, as shown by the 416 yds of offense the Bills gave up. That weren't all on Douglas.....). Anyway, we agree, Douglas was not playing well by the end of last season. But what were the options? Would you rather have seen Elam in the Ravens playoff game? My point was he went out there hurt back and all, took some angles that let him make tackles and did that clean field that won the game, so I, at least, put a bit of respect on him for that.

I think injuries and age caught up to him. Seems like he didn't have game status but showed up on injury report for his knee during the season, then he injured his back and missed 2 1/2 games near the end of the season. That said, he had 6 tackles and clinched the Ravens playoff win with an onside kick recovery, so there is some ingratitude here. But yeah, Douglas may have looked washed, but so did Tre White and Jackson. White and Douglas were both better players in their day, but...

Right, it hits a little differently if you say "for 2025, Cook will be compensated as the 15th highest paid RB in the league" or something like that A person can look and say "OK, 16th highest rush yards in the league, 20th for attempts - that means he's very efficient in Y/A (8th in the league) He's underpaid, sure, that happens on a rookie contract. Josh Jacobs kind of deal, maybe, bit higher because contracts inflate? Anyway. OMG the drama I saw in headlines when I went looking for some of this info. "James Cook begins to get frustrated with Josh Allen, and this is starting to become a problem for the Buffalo Bills" (the article didn't say a thing to support that - total clickbait I fed, me bad); " "ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Cook is "unhappy" with his situation and "disconnected" himself from the team and the city of Buffalo ahead of the 2025 season. In fact, Cook has even put his home on the market." etc etc etc etc I can totally believe this. I do hope he and the Bills work something out fair to both sides. "Bridge" contract with some injury guarantees and escalators or something.

Bit cheeky of him, don't you think?

"Thompson played at the University of Washington from 2012 to 2014, where he played safety, slot corner, linebacker, and running back." Torn Achilles in late September of 2024. Missed the rest of the season and was cut in February.

Always read the fine print. In the case of Spotrac, always read the "Contract Notes" in fine print at the bottom of the page. They're essential for understanding what's going on. On Cook's page, the fine print says "2025 Proven Performance Escalator Available (3rd Tier)." I'm sure Spotrac explains what that means somewhere, but a quick Google indicates that a 2025 Proven Performace Escalator is equivalent to a 2nd round tender, which is ~$5M That's why the 4 year deal is accurately reported to be the 4 year, $5,832,057 2nd round rookoie deal he signed with the Bills, where his original salary would have been ~$1.5M (total cap hit $1.8M). AND it's also accurately reported that his earnings will now be just under $10M - because the performance escalator jumped his 2025 salary up by about $5.3M Hope this helps.

Until 2021, the NFL season was 16 games so for his first 3 seasons he missed 4 games. After his rookie year (an adjustment for many players) he missed 1 game in 2 seasons. I'm not sure what "counted on to stay healthy" means to you, but I don't think teams would look askance at that. It's the most recent 4 seasons that are problematic - when a guy misses more games than he starts 3 out of 4 years, no, you can't count on him to stay healthy.

Oh BURN On paper, Alexander has only played one (almost) full season in the last 4 - 2022. 4 games in 2021, 7 games in 2023 and 2024. But in practice, it's worse than that. For example, he played 7 games last season, but of the 7 he played he platooned in one of them working his way back in, then only played 14% of the snaps in another before getting hurt again. Missed the 2nd half of the season and the playoff game.

I think you're right that Cook hasn't been at $11M. I don't think we had much chance to sign him in the $12M-$14M range this offseason though. It's rumor, but said rumor was that Cook wanted $15M per season. Let's look at Benford and Bernard's contracts, which got done pretty easily. Benford signed 4 yr, $69M which sounds like an ave of $17.25 per year. Looking at the guaranteed $37.636 money, it's really more like a 3 year, $12.54M (then we'll see) contract. Bernard signed for less - 4 year, $42.143 or ave of $10.54 per year. Looking at the guaranteed $23.85, it's really more like a 3 year, $8M (then we'll see) contract. I could be wrong, but I think the Bills see Cook as at least as important as Benford. So I think if they could have signed Cook for $12-$13M, they would have.

Yes, it's Mitch Morse but again, photo from last summer at Dawson Knox wedding. It's Q (Quintin Morris), Tre McKitty, Josh, Mitch Morse, I'm not sure who the guy next to Mitch is, Dalton Kincaid peeking over their shoulders, Zack Davidson on the far right.

Draped over one of those white parasols. Very disappointing if it doesn't happen. Yeah, their security and social media lockdown was really impressive. But Dion is there in one photo that did come out. Dion, Spencer Brown, Dawson Knox, Kincaid, Shakir, Gabe Davis confirmed there. Just to be clear, pretty confident this photo is from Dawson Knox wedding last summer. https://www.msn.com/en-sg/sport/nfl/josh-allen-looks-worse-for-wear-as-he-parties-with-teammates-at-bills-tight-end-dawson-knox-s-wedding/ar-BB1ptTZb Reverse image google search confirms.

It's only just begun. We've had FA, the draft, OTAs, and soon Minicamp. Then comes the dreaded Gap, the long weeks off between OTAs and training camp There's a meme going around "I never thought I'd see the day Bills fans get excited about Brady

The Bills took the names of a lot of their staff off their website a couple years ago. You used to be able to find the names of the trainers, assistant trainers, team psychologist, chaplains, S&C staff, and then all the FO people not just scouts but maintenance etc. They took all that off.

Oh dear. Where's @Simon? Between that and the white parasol....Josh might have to deal out some Hard Knocks at training camp, amirite?