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Everything posted by Chaos
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With Edmunds gone aNd Hines hurt, all hope is lost.
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Since 1987, Offense Wins Super Bowls about 2/3's of the time.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
You don’t like numbers? Reading is a good thing . In the opening paragraph i said the metric is not perfect but it is easy to apply and to understand. Be careful you don’t hurt yourself falling off your high horse. Over the course of 57 Super Bowl seasons there is some expectation these “ridiculous “ things average out. feel free to provide another metric for deciding if a team is more dependent on offense than defense. -
Since 1987, Offense Wins Super Bowls about 2/3's of the time.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
I also looked at the medians which is 4 for the offense and 4.5 for the defense (since 1987). Another interesting stat, is the Median for best of offense/defense ranking (for example a 7th rank offense, 3rd ranked defense would have a "best" of three. Since the 1987 cutoff point median best is 2.0. This suggests it is important to be at the top on one side of the ball or other. Since the expansion to 32 teams (and more playoff teams) the "best" median has dropped to 3.0) What actually really jumps off the page statistically, is how much more random things became at the beginning of the 21st century. Expanded playoffs dramatically changed things. Which is easy to understand. For the first Super Bowl for the 1966 season, there was only one play off game in each conference. In that scenario it is almost inevitable that a team which is at the top or near the top of the regular season offense and/or defense will participate in the single playoff game. With 14 teams making the playoffs, the oppportuntity for highly underperforming regular season teams to win is literally infinitely greater than in the early Super Bowl era. While it is more likely the a high powered offense team will win the Super Bowl, it is certainly possible for a team to win with defense. I suspect the reality is that Championship teams are no longer really "won" by any particular style and that the Offense Vs. Defense wins championship argument not particularly revealing at this point. Playoff sample sizes are small. But I suspect championshps are won now by teams getting to the playoffs healthy and prepared, and with coaching staffs who are great at game day coaching. -
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WfzinZlUIPrSBp_SzdwM8zGmpKivZ1vJzA6sP0Z2gjs/edit?usp=sharing Most teams, even the Super Bowl Champion, are better on one side of the ball or ther the other. I went through each super bowl winner to decide if that winner was more offensive oriented or defensive oriented or a rare exactly equal balanced team. The metric I user to decide if a team was better on offense or better on defense, is the teams points scored rank, and the teams points against rank. For example, using that Metric, the Chiefs, in 2022 had the number one offense and the number 17th ranked defense. So for purposes of this analysis, the 2022 Chiefs primarily won from offense. While the metric is not perfect, it is objective and easy enough to understand. Using this Metric from the first Super Bowl through the 1987 Giants team (21 super bowls) eight of the winners were offensive teams, and twelve were defensive teams, with one team the 1972 dolphins being equally dominant on offense and defense (ranking #1 on both sides of the ball) As a side note, the 1996 packers were th only other Super Bowl winner to be #1 points scored and #1 points allowed. Since the 1987 season, things have changed. 21 winners since them were higher ranked on the offense side of the ball, and 11 winners were higher ranked on defense, with 4 balanced teams. The link above lists the winners and their ranks.
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Hurts is not in a process system. Instead Hurts is the beneficiary of a great coach, a great oline, and an excellent offensive skill set. I don't remember another young QB ever being put into such a position. Process teams get a generational talent at QB, then focus on building a defense. Trust process.
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For those still upset we didn’t trade up for Jordan Addison…
Chaos replied to DJB's topic in The Stadium Wall
total speculation. -
You don't seem to understand what struggled to beat means.
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A lot of people are convinced that Saleh and McDaniel are better HC's than McDermott. This is based in large part on how much the Bill have struggled to beat those teams with obviously inferior rosters.
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When you have a process you don't need brains. Trust the process.
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Giants and Barkley do not reach an agreement on a new contract
Chaos replied to Gregg's topic in The Stadium Wall
Star RBs entering their third season would have tremendously greater demand than star RB's entering their sixth season. -
Giants and Barkley do not reach an agreement on a new contract
Chaos replied to Gregg's topic in The Stadium Wall
The number of posts in this thread that are so far off from the truth is high, even for a TBD thread. Some general concepts: The owners are not against running backs Veteran players that originally appoved of the rookie contract structure in the CBA are pro-themselves, and not pro-rookies who don't get a vote The franchise tag concept approved by the players in the CBA by design results in different values for different positions Running backs have shorter NFL careers than say, quarterbacks The players signed off on a deal that screws running backs with A uniform rookie contract length that extends almost to the end of the expected career of RBs A franchise fee structure that reflects the fact that RBs who are free agents after the rookie contract are less valuable because of the remaining expected career life. The PLAYERS can solve this problem in the next CBA by negotating for shorter rookie contract lives for RBs to reflect thier shorter expected career life. Imagein Derrick Henry being a free agent after his second season. Imagine what teams who had elite QBS on a five year rookie contract might have paid for Derrick Henry. This structure would hugely benefit the star NFL RBs, compared to the current structure. -
There is a simple solution. The NFL has different franchise tags by position. So it is well established there are different financial implications for different position groups. The rookie contract lengths should also adjust by position group. RBs should have a rookie contract life of two seasons. This will further devalue their draft position but will make them free agents in their prime.
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Josh Allen is the Greatest Glitch in Madden History
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
Its not really about the head coach. -
Josh Allen is the Greatest Glitch in Madden History
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
Madden gets Josh Allen and the Bills better than 97.1% of the posters on Two Bills Drive. Fact check: Completely True. -
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The original purpose of the thread is to flag the reality that there is not a lot more total point production to be squeezed out of the offense. We also score more points per possesion than 30 other teams. So a strategy of slowing down the game, hurts us more than our opponents. My general thesis is that the offense is fine, and the problems the Bills have getting over the division game hurdle lies elsewhere. It is not clear to me how this parsing of "we need x percent of this or that" or need to "get the ball out of Allen's hands more" is intended to help anything.