FireChans

So, last year I made a little topic due to our penchant for slow starts. Common knowledge among the NFL is that the first 12-15 plays from scrimmage is "scripted," partly based on what the team thinks the opposing team is going to do on defense and partly based on what was worked on throughout the week. I remember the Bills had a great run of having a solid script. I think we had a streak scoring on the opening possession going at one point. So I decided to do the analysis from the "Josh Allen is elite" era. The script is probably the biggest thing the OC does from a gameplan perspective and is much easier to measure than "adjustments." I'd like to re-open the court case and add Joe Brady to the mix. Daboll: 2020: 7/16 games had a TD or FG on opening drive 2021: 11/17 games had a TD or FG on opening drive Dorsey: 2022: 3 straight to open the year, and 4 of our first 6 but ultimately 6/16 on the year. 2023: 4/10 - Dorsey fired Brady 2023: 2/7 - Brady took over after Broncos 2024: 3/7 - so far So really when you look at the numbers: Daboll opening drive score% - 54.5% Dorsey - 38% Brady - 35.7% So my eyes are not deceiving me. There's obvious gameplan and talent related factors, but there has been a clear decline in scripted scoring drives since the Daboll era. Lots of room for Brady to improve here. It's early as an OC for him, and I think he has done okay figuring out the opposing defenses so far, but your first 12-15 plays NEED to be money. IMO, they are also a good indicator of offensive coaching. Here's the Chiefs numbers the last 2 years, for reference (and we have litigated their offensive struggles) 2023: 7/16 (backups played week 18) 2024: 3/6 Reid: 45% So what say you?

Its always been like this, imo. The crap teams will play each other and scavenge some wins a lot of these 2 win teams will be 5-6 win teams by the end.

I don't really mind optimism. It was just to demonstrate that its kinda expected for AFCE teams/fans to think their time is now when the dominant team appears on the surface to take a step back in the offseason. We did it for years. I'm sure the Chargers fans thought this was their year to make a run when the Chiefs lost Brown and Rice and Sneed. Spoilers..... it wasn't lol It's a message board. Everything we talk about is trivial. Take a breath.

Good thing I didn’t predict either of those things and in fact thought they were wrong, which I have said already lol

I didn't miss it. We lost to the Dolphins week 3 a few years back and still won the division. H2H matters but it's not all that matters. You are honestly acting like we wouldn't be screeching that the pundits weren't right if Josh missed 6 games and we went 2-4 lol. Naive take.

I'm not sure it was ever that good. Had a special part in Bills fans hearts because Brandt and Schrager were jumping on the Bills as a plucky up and comer right around 2019.

Yes. The Dolphins weren't pumped up as contenders for the division even if their QB got hurt. (this is eball's quote). If the Bills lost Josh Allen for a considerable amount of time, we would have been right in the thick of it for the division and the pundits would have looked "correct" but not really. Same thing with the oddsmakers. Now, I think they went too far and I said that this offseason. We have the best QB by a lot and the best coach by a lot in the division. We had a front row seat to how that goes in the AFCE when it comes to cruising to division titles. We've been there before, when it looked like the Pats' star was fading and they were gettable. So yeah, does it surprise me the Jets and Dolphins fans felt like @eball in 2012? Nope. Does it surprise me that they were equally wrong? No.

I think the division races looks completely different if the Bills lose their QB for 4 games and the Dolphins don’t.

The Dolphins lost their starting QB,

Better than another season of Zach Wilson lol

They went for it. Its going to cripple them for awhile. but they went for it. They could have tried to save their jobs and build an 8 win team that could sneak it to the playoffs. But they swung for the fences. Honestly, good for them. It didn’t work and is clearly failing spectacularly. But if you’re a Jets fan, you actually had some hope.

They were doomed regardless. Had no choice but to double down.

Not paying Barkley was a good call lol.

A bunch of new OL, and a top 6 pick at WR?

I don’t agree and I wouldn’t make that argument either. I don’t think Dabs lets them bring that group to camp

“The man with the reputation of an early riser can sleep til noon.” Works both ways unfortunately,

Um, I’m gonna say yes because I think Daboll was likely a driving force in getting more offensive talent around Josh. He won’t sit quietly when the rest of the Bills brass decides how many backup DL guys they should acquire. IMO, of course.

Agreed. Josh is playing the best ball of his career on a week to week basis With respect to the offensive talent on the bills, he is clearly the MVP and the best QB in the league right now.

If Pat was any other QB, he would be getting killed. but unfortunately, he isn’t, he’s a 2 time MVP and 3 time SB winner. So he gets more grace than anyone.

“We have great backs, we are going to run the ball and play tough defense” = our QB is garbage Same as it’s always been lol

Will be gone this week. Don’t think will be a Bill.

>200 yards by the WR group. >300 yards passing 3 passing TD’s 34 straight points yeah, I think Amari made a little difference today.

He joined the team like 4 days ago lol

Bernard has a little DaNorris Searcy in him. Doesn’t matter what happens, freak plays, great defensive plays, bad offensive plays, just a knack for being on the receiving end of turnovers.

Now you’re getting it lol