FireChans

The NFL has changed. These are rules for the modern era. And as much as James Cook is nice, right now we are debating on TBD trading him vs overpaying him vs him holding out. Which is the point.

lol are you trolling me right now?

The overpay part kind of matters but honestly this regime would probably just use the savings to sign another 35 year old DL off the PED suspension list. They don’t do the winning moves enough. That’s what matters to me. I don’t get as worked up about what crappy move is technically crappier. I do not believe Palmer vs the field of crappy FAs is the difference between a title. if Brown pops and Palmer remains a 500 yard JAG getting cardio out there, I will be mad. I was talking about him as a potential target during the Commanders run. But I can admit that’s a big if. I was more upset they didn’t chase Darnell Mooney last year because he was CLEARLY held back in Chicago, unlike a Palmer who had plenty of reasons to be productive, and just wasn’t.

Cooks is cooked I think. Hollins is way overpaid. I’ll give you Brown but I think there’s risk there. If you said the Bills signed Mack and Cooks instead of Palmer, I would still think our WR’s suck.

Who? Listen I think Josh Palmer stinks. Consider me categorically underwhelmed. But he’s got a higher floor than Dynami Brown. I liked Brown coming out but he honestly had 4 good games. I could see that contract being a complete whiff. The problem that we all agree on is that it’s been obvious the way the WR market has been trending that FA is not where we are going to find what we need and yet we still find ourselves here year after year.

I already looked. a lot of them were reaches. James Williams in particular. I have come around to @GunnerBill’s philosophy that you should always be considering picking at least one CB every year because keeping a talent pipeline in that group is super important. But not necessarily in the first, My FireChans patented “Official draft strategy” is as follows. QB/EDGE/WR/OT/CB/pass rush in round 1 exclusively. Obviously if you have a QB, you don’t need one there. 1 WR in rounds 2-4 every year you can 1 CB in rounds 2-4 every year you can No pick higher than a 3rd on running backs ever. Everything else BPA

No. I am however failing to see the point. Reaching for any position of need in the first is legitimately bad strategy. It’s why the adage is, “don’t reach for needs” ha.

I fear Beane learned the wrong lesson from Diggs and post-Diggs. DK only got $60M GTD and has a 2025 cap hit of $11M. Curtis Samuel and Josh Palmer have a cap hit of $14M. Next year, Palmer has a cap hit of $11M. Gabe had upside that Palmer didn’t imo. As well as a QB they were desperate to justify his contract.

So wait, if they did count Kincaid and Diggs and we were top 5, would you be arguing it’s a good or bad strategy?

So contextually, if I said “this stat is meaningful because Josh Allen once again was relying on throwing to a Mack Hollins-tier player in the most important game of the year which we lost,” does that help?

Clearly it made some sense and wasn’t impossible because it happened. Listen, they were wrong. They wanted everything to be good with the Bills and that meant keeping Diggs over trading him and eating his money. It’s okay to be wrong. But it was never impossible and they got on their high horses about it being impossible because that’s what they wanted. arguing the bills shouldn’t trade Diggs - acceptable opinion with room for disagreement arguing it’s impossible for the Bills to move on from Diggs - just stone cold flat out wrong. Sorry C1 boys. Between that and the Dorsey puff pieces, they are closer to OBL than the Athletic. That’s okay too.

Unlike the Chargers where he was their best outside WR? Competing with the maybe the most disappointing rookie WR in 2023?

The FA WR market is a disaster. Decently productive players like Shakir aren’t being let out of the building. Teams like the Pats are desperate. Dyami Brown who had like 4 good games last year after being a nothing is getting 1 year $10M fully guaranteed

Historically, it’s not a good idea to say “we need a CB so we are going to draft one.”

Am I crazy or do I see a little Sammy Watkins in Luther Burden?

It’s the game dude. I don’t hate Cover1 for playing it, but I do hate that they are held up as some pillar of objective football analysis. they are a bunch of bills fans first with a modicum of football knowledge. That’s all. if you ever want a laugh, go watch their videos last year where they get so exasperated about how moving on from Diggs would make no sense and was impossible.

Sharp makes it very unclear But just from bar napkin math, the Vikings have drafted 2 WR’s in the first round alone but they are only middle of the pack. In addition, they have a fifth, fifth and sixth. now off the top of my head, from a draft pick valuation standpoint, that should probably be among the highest valued. For the Bengals, they have a second, a first, a fourth, a sixth and a third. The Giants have a first, a third, a third, and a first. I am suspicious that this list is truly kind of nonsense.

I love Ricky and I would not be surprised for him to be a Shakir type player and productive but I fear he is a slot only at the next level.

3/4 years not surpassing 660 yards makes it likely he’s gonna surpass 660 yards? Let me guess, this is the year it’s likely Rousseau gets 16 sacks because he’s had 6 and 8 before?

Easily attainable, except for the fact that they haven’t been easily attainable for Palmers whole career lol

So basically we are about as run heavy as the Chargers were last year, and we play in more poor weather games and we both have a star slot WR who will likely be the focal point, Palmer is gonna outproduce the combo of Cooper and Hollins next year? FWIW, that’d be 51 for 660 yards and 7 TD’s. I’m hammering the UNDER.

What’s more impressive or annoying, is that I think since 2020 the Bills are probably one of the highest in investing in running backs for draft capital. 3rd, 4th and 2nd is quite a bit for RBs. It’s a bit of a wire cross for Beane and co. Too much on RB’s, not enough on WR’s. Only one of those position groups is going through a historic contract boom where cheap talent is outrageously valuable.

Herbert had more pass attempts than Josh last year.

Put together, the difference between Eagles WRs/TEs and the Bills WRs/TEs in 2025 is $5M. For an extra $5M, they have AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Jahan Dotson, Smith, Wilson, Goedert, Muse, Calcaterra We have Samuel, Palmer, Shakir, Coleman, Hamler, Shenault, Knox, Kincaid and Davidson. Woof.

We are 32nd in draft capital on QBs since 2020, I guess that means QB's aren't important either.