Mikie2times

The Edmunds comment was a joke. I just tossed it in because it's funny to me that he always gets tossed into the "this is why we suck". The rest of it was not a joke. I have never posted anything positive or negative about Edmunds on these boards. Sure I want the splash plays like we all do, but I always thought his role on this team and how fans perceive him is just too misunderstood by the average fan for us to fairly evaluate.

On November 14, 2021 the Bills beat the Jets to go to 6-3 on the year The week prior Josh played one of his worst games of the season, throwing 2 INT's in a 3 point loss to the Jaguars. Hard to get a read on these Bills. One week they look like world beaters then the next week they seem to fall apart. Consistency is fleeting and they tend to struggle in close games having gone 0-3 in games decided by 7 points or less. What ever happened to Gabe Davis? Are we going to ever consider what an actual running game can do for us? When Singletary runs, he seems to do well. Daboll sucks, what an overrated POS. Well, at least we beat KC, that gives me some hope. Edmunds also sucks, I have to say that. On Novembers 13th, 2022 the Bills lost to the Vikings to go 6-3 on the year The week prior Josh played one of his worst games of the season, throwing 2 INT's in a 3 point loss to the Jets. Hard to get a read on these Bills. One week they look like world beaters then the next week they seem to fall apart. Consistency is fleeting and they tend to struggle in close games having gone 2-3 in games decided by 7 points or less. What ever happened to Gabe Davis? Are we going to ever consider what an actual running game can do for us? When Singletary runs, he seems to do well. McDermott sucks, what an overrated POS. Well, at least we beat KC, that gives me some hope. Edmunds also sucks, I have to say that. Our expectations were built around a healthy Bills team and linear growth in Allen. As of this moment, neither seem to have played out as expected. This year we have Von Miller, who really is looking like the steal of free agency. At this time last year, we had Hyde, Poyer, White, and Levi Wallace as our starting secondary (Tauron Johnson as well if we call it perma Nickle). All 4 of members of our starting secondary are gone including our two captains/ Top 100 NFL Safeties, one of which will return. I want to argue that we are better positioned to defend the run this year but we have been gashed three straight weeks. Question mark offensive players like Gabe, Knox, and McKenzie, collectively, have not stepped up. Perhaps it's by design as Steph is all over the field, but I would rather spread the ball. We are struggling to establish a traditional ground game and when we do we don't stick with it. It seems like our defense is always in bend but not break mode, maybe even more so at the most critical moments. So should we be better? Because it really seems like we have already watched this movie play out before and at this moment, arguably it's with less talent. It's a long season and a lot can still change. I feel comfortable saying this team has the ability to become much better than last years team. Our pass rush being one of the biggest reasons why. Health is going to probably play the biggest role in all of this which really stinks given how healthy we seem to have been over the years. Outside of all this, I'm leaving my expectations at the door. I never liked getting crowned early. We have a lot of work to do.

As far as I'm aware the Miracle in the Meadowlands is the only other time in NFL history a team was in position to run out the clock then preceded to fumble with the other team scoring a TD to take the lead. While I have several situations I don't care for the direction of our coaching, I don't think we should be attacking the logic on this play. 41 seconds were left, enough time for us to drive the field and tie the game. Which means enough time for Minnesota to have done the same had we taken the safety. Imagine how bad the coaching decision would have looked if we took the intentional safety, then Minnesota drove the field and kicked a game winner? One other time in NFL history this has occurred. It was the correct decision to run the sneak. Perhaps the coaching tip you hope would occur is just telling Josh not to rush. Clean handoff is priority #1, if it results in a Safety it's not the worst thing but any QB in the NFL should be expected to take a handoff and not lose yardage. It's unlikely any of us will witness something like this again.

I was thinking about this as well. On one hand, I wondered how Josh would age. Clearly his current form isn't sustainable over the very long term. I also think Josh is a very intelligent player and will eventually turn into an Elway like QB late in his career, still able to run, but savvy enough that rarely has to. But even outside Josh, Beane is a witch. This is a playoff team without Josh nearly all hand picked. He is the best GM in football. So even taking Josh out of it, Beane should have us relevant as long as he is here. He's only 46 and seems to be very well adjusted. Maybe it's the last name, but I always envision him in real life like Brad Pitt in Moneyball in that scene he trades for a closing pitcher with Jonah Hill.

I’m not rioting over this one but I do think teams have a bit of roadmap against us. Josh tends to press more when you keep him off the field. The defense will allow offenses to be methodical, which in turn can lead to keeping the offense off the field. Within this you also need to execute at a very high level. That said, am I bit concerned that KC gets smart and runs 30 times at us or other more traditional passing teams? Who on earth dare trying to beat us by air or matching our score?

So one thing I think I am qualified to some extent to speak about the national side. In the early 90's, if you didn't have an AFC team in your market, NBC saturated you with Buffalo games. So that was one big way the league gave us exposure. Thurman Thomas winning the MVP in 1991 along with the excitement of the no huddle. The league liked to showcase us at that time. I see that aspect as similar to this year. A tangible shift happened after the AFC Championship. We not only became the universal favorite, but it's almost as if the NFL said, ok, we like Josh Allen as being the face of our league. We like Buffalo being the image of the league. I don't recall the early 90's being that way. We had great exposure, but I don't remember this many people, including the league itself, wanting us to do well. Perhaps they did back then, if so, it was overshadowed by so many not wanting us to do well in our 3rd and 4th Super Bowls. Appreciate the replies. Some really awesome perspective for those not in the area.

Curious how the vibe toward this team is locally compared the the 1990 and 1991 teams. I'm picking those years because they were the pinnacle years during the 90's run. Which isn't very debatable being the best run we had outside the AFL teams. I'm 40 years old, not from the area, so I barely understood what the national exposure was really like until the drought hit and the coverage stopped. So as far as the Buffalo and surrounding area in WNY, is the impact of this Bills team more noticeable, less noticeable? More widely covered by media, less? (I understand media is different) More national exposure, less national exposure? Do we have more love from the national media? Any other comparisons would be welcome. In sum, I know this is a special time, I have 30 years in to tell me that much, but for those that really can see the full view of this, I really wanted your opinion of that vs the things you saw in our previous peak seasons.

No, I totally get what you're saying and again, I largely agree. Love the topic, but ya, it's as if Allen and Mahomes are the only two that seem to have cracked the code. You mention some reasons which I agree with. I think it's also the mobility combined with elite arm talent. No other QB's have that combination. I will not put Lamar in that category, he can't come close to making the throws those two make. You can't rush in a uncontained way, so the pass rush is slow. You can't blitz them. They will take the check down when you play soft. Even when you finally get a win, they're likely to break contain and create on a busted play. You can stop them but for how long? The league rules forced teams to build in a way to compete against the passing game. Teams don't have an identity, they all blend together, and that isn't good for the league. Each team is trying to get an elite pass rush, CB, great WR's, and of course franchise QB. It's all the same formula. In previous eras you had teams heavily focused on building an elite defense and running game and they had that identity (Pittsburgh). You has teams that were pass centric, like Miami and the Colts. Bills and the no huddle. SF and the west coast offense. Defensive juggernauts like Baltimore. To me the diversity really forced teams to create balance or build to beat divisional teams and hope your model would hold up against others, but Like you said, we have the Allen/Mahomes. Only more aggressive DB play can stop that train and we aren't going to see that. So is this what the NFL wanted? Two QB's dueling for a decade in a two man show similar to Larry and Magic? It's a great plot line for awhile, but this could last a very long time (not shedding a tear at that notion, but again, not good for the league in my opinion).

Really great post. The rise of spread offenses. Pass, Pass, Pass. Some lineman rarely are in a three point stance. Others play exclusively out of shotgun. Emphasis on speed and position players on offense. Quick routes. Spread them out. Get a multi dimensional QB, better hit rate, easier on the offensive line. Meanwhile defensive players just keep getting bigger, faster, stronger. Much larger paydays. Personally, I'm good with it. I hated how the NFL slanted the game towards throwing with officiating in the late 90's. The game should have a degree of balance. It lent itself to more identity around the league and teams winning with different formulas, which in turn didn't allow teams to fixate on the same roster mode. At times, defenses should be dominant. Watching a great running game or defense is appealing. If I wanted arena ball I would watch it. Perhaps this is how the balance gets restored.

As a a person who plays predominantly underdogs, it has been a great year. Only a couple teams can cover a TD with any consistency and oddsmakers still have not adjusted.

2 drives, 3 TD's.....don't overthink it

Will it start the Buffalo loop of purgatory? One could only hope. That is the recipe.

Zappe cares about pizza and touchdowns and I don't see any damn pizza

Lets be careful. If nothing else, Karma police are gonna defend Einsteins post. Zappe is about to go off like Rob Johnson in week 17.

He had two check downs and needed a miracle catch on a blown coverage with nobody within 10 yards of his WR. He might be better than Jones, but like Jones, the zip on the ball is average, he accuracy is meh. He seems smart. He could grow, but to me he is a Jones 2.0 which means a very tight ceiling, if you really like him, maybe a Jones 2.1.

He basically said maybe today's loss is what they needed. Maybe it's what they need. Nobody will give us a chance next week Sunday Night against Buffalo. It's a chance to be exposed. Again referencing maybe this is what they need. Really, I think they're broken. If a two game losing streak wasn't enough to motivate you I question if this situation will lead to a different result.

Thank you OP. This isn't a new model or anything, the concept is how most power ranking systems work. That doesn't mean I don't applaud you for doing it. I think it's a really neat project and I look forward to seeing your work. As for the guy that hoped this could hit at a 60% clip ATS? No model has ever come close. Not remotely.

So you’re saying either team should be happy with how they used a top 10 draft pick? Less than half the seasons between the two they were healthy. Now it’s time to re-up on the contract which both will want primo dollars for a contract based on being healthy. Derek Henry will soon join the club. What team wants to be in this position? An elite running back can absolutely impact the game but they’re very few and far between and the risks associated are just not worth the investment for a work horse back. Not when you can platoon multiple styles with nearly no contractual risk.

I've spent a lot of time in SD this year, as a midwestern native and I fell in love with the place. It's not the California stereotype I was expecting. Loved the vibe, seemed like they could back a sports team. I'm curious what it was like there when the Chargers played. They seem to love the Padres. I'm originally from Detroit area and two things I just can't get over when it comes to running a bad franchise. You had a generational talent in Barry. Then you had a generational talent in Calvin Johnson, with Stafford throwing to him no less and they couldn't do more? That is the depths of depressing. At least during our drought you could say we didn't have the right players. Imagine a team with Stafford and Calvin Johnson and you still can't build enough talent to win? Decent fan base as well. That said, we are a definitive number one. We have fans across the country born from the early 90's who never got off the wagon. Very few fan bases are as loyal and deserving as Buffalo. It will almost be weird when we finally win one. Oddly, I think as a result of all this we have a lot of the fair weather love the last few years but I will take it. It's great seeing us being somewhat of a media darling after 20+ years of being an afterthought.

He was still very good in college. I mean that throw he made in his bowl game on the post route. It was one even now, perhaps he’s the only player on earth can make. Wyoming as a program has a poorly developed passing game. They’re certainly run first. Josh still didn’t grow into his form as a runner until later on.

I certainly think something exists with this, but like many have said, not just one thing. He's only leaving the pocket when he has to, he's throwing more short passes, and dealing with more of a contained rush to offset his scrambling. That is my guess. I don't see lineman flying past him rushing recklessly as much as I used to and he really hasn't had many of his trademark sprint to the last inch of turf and throw a rope down the sideline plays. He's been predominantly in the pocket. Then when you look at his core throwing motion, it shrinks him considerably vs an over the top thrower, but do we care? I certainly don't.

No happy ending after this one..... Bill, how is the weather out there?

Stats guy. His job is to feed the broadcasters relevant tidbits. I did this for a local broadcast team for a year.

Von has a switch. It's almost like he holds his most explosive or confusing moves for key situations in games.