CincyBillsFan

You must not remember 2019 all that well. Allen's stats that year: 59% pass completion; 3599 total yards; 29 total TD's; 16 total TO's; 6.7 yards per pass; Q-rating of 85 Based on Allen's first 9 games his projected 2025 numbers are: 70% pass completion; 4626 total yards; 41 total TD's; 13 total TO's; 8.1 yards per pass; Q-rating of 106

As an aside did Kubiak comment on the wisdom of the Bills running a pass play on 4th & 1 after they had shown Miami that they were going to pass on 4th & 1 on the previous play?

That wasn't my point. It was a cumulative effect. I have no idea what is going through Allen's head but I do suspect he probably expected a bigger move from Bean at the trade deadline and I know he's friends with Darnold and he had to notice the Seahawks making that move.

But if you look closer at last season Allen had two things going on that he doesn't this year: 1) Cooper and Hollins made a lot of plays. Cooper was elite with those tough back shoulder sideline catches and Hollins was fantastic off script. The Bills also pushed the ball downfield and played much more aggressively on O in a lot of last seasons games. Off the top of my head KC, LA Rams, Detroit, Arizona, Jacksonville & Seattle come to mind. The Bills running backs, particularly Johnson, were much more active DOWN FIELD in the passing game. And before his injury Coleman was making a lot of big time catches. This season only the KC game and the 4th quarter against the Ravens has seen that attacking O we saw a lot last season. 2) The D is noticeably weaker and not getting the TO's. This is forcing the Bills O to double down on the running game and is leaving it with little room to shake off a slow start. In how many games have the Bills fallen quickly behind by a TD?

No one is saying "Allen is infallible" but the lack of play making WR's, and at times a porous D that requires an offensive design to protect it, bears a much greater responsibility for the Bills offensive problems then Allen's play. The problem is that Allen must be infallible for this version of the Bills to win games and as we all know Allen is not infallible.

This 100% and it doesn't bode well for the Bills. I suspect the lack of any move to upgrade Allen's weapons at the trade deadline hit him hard. Allen is good friends with Darnold and it must have stung to see Seattle go out and bring in another WR while the Bills sat pat. And the play of the D has to be frustrating Allen in 2 ways: They can't hold on to a lead or win a 16 - 13 game and Allen is being told to play in a way that doesn't fit his overall skill set to protect the D. Look at Burrow who also has a bad D. The Bengals don't put a governor on him and design an offense that protects their D they go in the opposite direction and turn every game into a shootout. Sure it hasn't worked out all the well but I bet Burrow is having a blast out there and he probably thinks that if the Bengal's got a great RB to go along with their awesome WR's they would become the greatest show on turf and start winning those shootouts.

I don't disagree but both things can be true. We are seeing an offense that when it's firing on all cylinders is a defensive coaches wet dream. McD's prints are all over the transition that started last season. And there has been a deliberate decision to not add the personnel required to run a more fluid and potent passing game. It's possible that the kinks will get worked out over the next couple of games and the Bills will go on a run. The potential of this offensive approach is apparent and it seems to be modeled after the Eagles. The issue is that the Eagles have a defense that can win a 10 - 7 game on the road, Buffalo does not. And the Eagles have 2 very good WR's that can make a team pay a price for loading up the box. Both Eagle WR's are significantly better then the best Bills WR.

Alt 22 screenshots and film review pundits are not exactly the best way to try to figure out the problems with the passing attack this season. And at the risk of being called an Allen apologist he is not the problem here either. In fact Allen is having a very good year statistically and projects out to having 4700 total yards, 42 TD's and only 13 TO's for this season. The issue is the herky jerky, uneven nature of the offense. Like you say there is a lack of synchronicity. if you're right the most likely culprit is the offensive design & play calling. After all we saw the Bills try a play action pass on 4th & 1 only to have it spoiled by a Miami TO at the snap. Clearly McDaniel saw something in the Bills personnel that tipped him off. Yet on the very next play Brady again called for a pass. Think about that and tell me it doesn't reveal some serious issues in the play calling tactics. And you answer the question in your last paragraph. With a bottom tier WR group there is no way you're going to have a great passing attack.

IMO the only logical explanation is that Brady is operating within the restrictions demanded of the offense by McD. I'm a big college football fan and that LSU passing attack was aggressive and stretched the field.

And Bean thought it was funny. Again I agree that Allen has input but that input comes AFTER Bean/McD and the scouts have narrowed down the guys they think will be available in the pick window the Bills have decided on using. At that point sure, Allen may watch some film and offer his opinion but I continue to find it very implausible that his input changed who Bean/Scouts wanted to draft. Just my opinion.

Yet Allen is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.

The numbers are a lot better then "not bad". And given the WR talent on the field I think Allen is playing to the standard he has established over the last 5 seasons (2020 - 2024). I would agree that this is not his best season nor is he playing at an MVP level but his projected numbers for 2025 easily put him in the top 10 or even top 5 QB's out there. And while I consider Allen a top 3 NFL QB, in practical terms that means some tines he's the #1 QB in a season and other times he's #5. It's the expected natural variation in performance over time.

And we would have a tread like "Bench Josh Allen"!

It isn't IMO. Coleman has regressed, and Palmer/Moore have not matched the impact of Hollins/cooper. Shakir has remained the same and Kincaid has improved. Another part of last seasons passing game that has been mysteriously absent this season are passes to Cook & Johnson. Johnson was particularly dangerous catching the ball down field last season. This season the only shot to him was the TD pass he dropped against the Ravens.

Don't underestimate the value of another D lineman for the rotation or an undersized LB who is a tacking machine from the ACC or Big 12.

I've wondered that to and my guess is that they still have to spy Allen and sitting on that screen might leave the middle open for him to take off.

As others have said I have to reluctantly agree. Maybe (hopefully) Palmer and or Davis can at least inject some fear of the downfield strike on play action. But yea, this is what they worked on all pre-season so they might as well double down. Of course we would be looking at a lot of games like last nights Eagles/Packers barn burner. Assuming that the Bills defense can play as well as those two teams D's do. That's a big and probably unrealistic assumption. Well maybe the weather will cooperate and render passing the football at Highmark and in NE impossible?

Good point and food for thought. I you're right about this being what McD has always wanted in an offense, and I think you are, then if the O doesn't improve McD will be tossing Allen under the bus and then things will get real interesting, and not in a good way.

Fair enough. But on the Bills they would have been number ones and at minimum would have exerted a Cooper effect but with the benefit of an entire off season to acclimate to Brady & Allen. It's hard not to believe that any one of these3 guys would have significantly improved the Bills WR situation. I like the Palmer signing and think it should have still happened even if they made other moves to land the WR's I mentioned.

I agree and I am less confident that we will go on a run then I was in 2021 & 2023 when the Bills were worse off but then went on impressive streaks to roar into the playoffs. The other more subtle issue I see is that last season was a transformational year for the offense. While much of the Brady bulldozer, run heavy, short passing game had been implemented there still were glimpses of that semi reckless, peddle to the medal, Allen wearing a cape offense that had proved so potent over the last 5 seasons. You saw it in the KC, LA Rams & Detroit games. This season we have only seen it in the 4th quarter o the Baltimore game. Not only does it look like Brady/McD don't want to shift it into overdrive unless all other options are exhausted they don't have the offensive roster to do it.

Off the top of my head Devante Adams comes to mind as does George Pickens. While on some teams either guy might not be a true #1 on the Bills they absolutely would have been. And if you couldn't pull that off Bean could have gone after a CB in FA and moved up in the draft to grab a #1 WR. Egbuka, who Tampa took at #19 would have fit the bill. Sure these moves all would have been crap shoots. But with Allen at the peak of his career it seems that WR is exactly where you roll the dice.

Every human being, no matter how elite in their field, will exhibit a range in their performance over time. if Bean/McD/Brady thought Allen would play at an MVP level for two consecutive seasons they were crazy. As for Allen's play this year and looking at his stats, I would suggest he is playing at an elite but not at an MVP level: Passing: 70.3% completion rate; 2139 yards; 15 TD's & 5 INT's and a QB rating of 105.7 Rushing: 311 yards; 7 TD's & 2 lost fumbles Total Offensive Output: 2450 yards; 22 TD's & 7 TO's. He's on pace here for a season with 4626 total yards; 41 TD's & 13 TO's. So yes, obtaining a true WR1 in the off season should have been a high priority for Bean. Allen's performance to date supports the idea that adding a WR1 over the summer would have resulted in the Bills being in a much better place then they are now.

Agree. I could never root against the Bills and every victory gives me hope that this will be the year. It will be no different Sunday and then again on Thursday. I would love to say "hey I was wrong about McD and Bean". I am still holding out hope the Bills are on their way to a Super Bowl this season. The easiest path forward over the next 5 years is for the Bills to get their act together and go on a run that results in going to a Super Bowl this season. Change is fine in theory, but.....................

That makes sense to me and is consistent with what the sources say and how Bean & Allen appear to operate. As an aside, I still believe that Coleman could breakout at any time and be a very good NFL WR. I have seen enough to know that the potential is there. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this happens. And if Coleman does break through and become a dominating WR will those posters that say Allen pushed Bean to draft him come on 2BD and praise Allen's brilliant scouting skills?

You're right I wasn't there and I don't know what was said & done. All I can go on is common sense and what the circumstantial evidence suggests. And some of that evidence are the "sources" everyone keeps pointing to in which none provide details that support the idea that Allen PUSHED BEAN TO DRAFT Coleman. Everything that I've seen in those sources and in Allen's general behavior around drafting Coleman was that he was excited at the potential Coleman's style of play brought to the table and he was looking forward to playing with them. That is a far cry from being intimately involved in the Bills declension to draft Coleman. But hey believe what you want. I'll believe that Allen welcomed Coleman in and was excited that this athletic, big bodied WR might become an important piece of the passing game. Why some claim that Allen was heavily involved in selecting Coleman, implying that Allen nixed alternative draft scenarios like taking McConkey or aggressive moving up in the draft to grab one of the stud WR's is beyond me. I have yet to see one credible piece of evidence to support this.