CincyBillsFan

This is the kind of thing that factors into whether a coach & GM keep their job.

In 2019/2020 the Bills made a choice about how they would build their team with a superb franchise QB at the helm. They chose the path that would have worked in the 1990's through 2010: let your QB elevate a pedestrian group of offensive players and focus your resources on creating an elite, shutdown defense. And for a couple of season's it sort of worked with a 2020 trip to the AFC championship and if not for "13 seconds" a likley SB trip in 2021. Both of these were on the back of great play by Allen. Though concern had to be expressed that the defense was not rising to the occasion in the playoffs with only one dominant performance in 6 playoff games to that point. But now we can see that this choice, which has potentially squandered a generational talent at QB, has failed utterly. While the Bills were following one script the teams that have been going to and winning SB's have following another script. One that involved concentrating as much skill player talent and the best O line possible around their elite QB's: The Rams, the Chiefs (who set the template), the Bengals, the Eagles and Tampa Bay. Hell, even in our division we've apparently been eclipsed by Miami which has followed the correct script with a lesser QB. We can argue about Allen, or Davis, or the play calls or whatever but it's like arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic as it goes down and ignoring the role of the iceberg.

The Bills have no real vertical threat and no big bodied WR that can turn 50/50 balls into 90/10 balls like D Hop can. For some reason that remains more mysterious then the birth of the universe the Bills can not execute a screen pass. Which of their RB's over the last 5 seasons could take a game over? How many sacks would this O line have given up if Joe Burrow was back there in shot gun? Is it any wonder that Allen is down after watching the Bills stand still relative to their biggest AFC rivals in the conferences offensive arms race? At what point does relying on lower draft picks and other teams cast offs & back up players to build the Offense just get depressing? Sure they took Kincaid in the 1st round this year and it's about freaking time. And guess what that may be one of the few positives we take out of this season.

I agree with much of this. You know that in the off season Allen talks to his dad, brother and maybe some other close confidants about how things are going in Buffalo. I can't believe that the conversion doesn't steer into the territory that you call out: the Bills not committing enough resources to the offense. Particularly the O line. How can Allen not look at what the other top contending franchises are doing to equip their franchise QB's with the tools to have a highly effective offense and wonder why not in Buffalo? Consider division & AFC rivals Miami & Baltimore over the last 2 seasons. Both have made comprehensive efforts to deliver to their QB's the best possible complimentary coaching & offensive talent. Sure KC is struggling with inferior skill players like Buffalo but no one doubts that the Chiefs have a better O line and offensive coaching. And is there any doubt that during the off season the Chiefs will move heaven & earth to resupply Mahomes with top end play makers? Honestly, I can see why Allen looking at where the Bills have prioritized their resources since 2020 and not be a little depressed.

The Cowboys don't seem to be nearly as formidable on the road as they are at home.

Different things: * The defense comment was in response to your talking about the Bills being ranked 19th in total plays as supporting what the Manning's said. My point is that this season the D has probably had the biggest impact on why the Bills have a reduced number of total plays. * I took the snarky Manning comments to indicate an Allen problem that went beyond that one game. But even in the Denver game the Bills 2nd drive was 8 plays that ended on an INT that should have been a 1st down at the Bronco's 12 yard line. That drive alone would have been 9 or more plays had Davis just caught the ball. And for what its worth two of the three Bills drives involved 8 & 7 plays respectively.

Offensive plays per game is not the same thing as Allen's willingness to have the patience to go on long drives by taking what the defense is giving. Offensive plays per game is influenced by 3 & outs, TO's and especially the defenses ability to get the opponents offense off the field. In the Giants game the Bills had only 3 possessions the entire 2nd half scoring 2 TD's and a Knox drop from ending the game in the NY red zone taking a knee. Probably the factor most limiting the number of plays the Bills O is running per game is defensive shortcomings where since the Miami game the D has very few forced TO's and 3 & outs. To be clear I agree that McD understands the X's & O's of an offense what I think he doesn't understand are the subtle intangibles that go into how players function and either thrive or struggle within an offense.

He's actually gone in the opposite direction as he took over the defense and has extensively meddled in the offense. This probably comes form his take away of the "13 seconds" fiasco in KC. If must think that if only he ran everything the Bills would have won that game.

The problem with McD, as I believe he is behind this with support from Bean (after all Bean needs Allen to stay healthy & productive for 10 - 12 more years for CAP reasons) is that because he doesn't understand offenses & QB's in the way that Reid or McDaniel does he assumed he could change Allen without losing a step. The goal should have been to tweak Allen's style of play not change it. This is what DaBoll was doing and Dorsey was not. But in defense of Dorsey he was likely simply following McD's orders here. If Brady isn't free to run this offense in the way he sees fit then he to will fail.

The problem I have with comments like this from Manning is it doesn't reflect reality and is simply snarky. Since I remember a lot of long Bills drives I wondered what the hell Manning was talking about. So I went back and just looked for any Bills drive that ended in points (FG or TD) that was 9 plays or longer. I choose 9 as that is a pretty long drive IMO. Here's what I found: * Long Bills drives have been evenly spread out over the season and Allen has had at least one in every game. * The total number of long drives is = 23. * The longest was for 17 plays. * The long drives have been: 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 13, 15, 15, 17 So is Manning being fair or does Allen know he can have long drives?

But the threat of legit big play WR's must help the Ravens running game.

This kind of explains some of your Allen posts.

The officiating tonight has been brutal. They're are calling some ticky tack stuff at critical moments in the game.

They made a big time effort to boost the weapons at Jackson's disposal. The Bills could learn a thing or two from them.

Also Mixon catches a ball at his knees making it look easy. As I recall Diggs dropped one against Denver that was in the same place. Just saying.

I disagree. Those were not high level FA signings: * Morse is probably the closest thing to an aggressive FA O line signing but he was not an elite center when they signed him and he had major concussion issues whch thankfully he has avoided since being with the Bills. But yea, this was an attempt back in 2019 to shore up what may have been the worst O line in the NFL. * McGovern was a clever under the radar signing but again he was no where near being an elite Guard. He was a back up and continued the Bean/McD tradition of signing guys on a hope & prayer. Last season Safold was a similar signing and was rated as the worst starting guard in the NFL. I agree that this season the Bills finally tried to correct their 5 year strategic mistake of prioritizing the D over the O and actually focus high end draft picks on the offense. And while both Kincaid & Torrence look like they'll be top end players for years to come their impact this year is muted as they work through their rookie seasons. But look at the Bills #1 picks over McD/Bean's time as coach. From 2017 to 2022 the Bills had 7 #1 picks in 6 drafts. They used 5 of those picks on defensive players and 2 (Allen & the trade for Diggs) on the offense. Sure this last draft they seem to be changing direction but it's hard not to think that with respect to the 2023 season it was a little to late. And I disagree about a steady increase in talent for the offense. Last year's O line with the addition of Safold was one of the worst in the NFL. Sure it's better this year but that's hardly a steady improvement. It's more hit or miss. I like the fire in Spenser Brown but a 3rd round development project from Northern Iowa at RT? Again a hope and prayer on the O line. I also think that the Bills WR's were better in 2020 & 2021 then they are today. Brown & Beasley and to some extent Sanders complimented Diggs better then the current crop do. Ditto for RB where it's hard to argue that Cook, Harris & Murry are really an upgrade to Moss & Motor. And yes I think Cook is on the rise and could blossom into a great RB as long as McD doesn't snuff out the guys passion with his unprofessional benching of the man for a mistake. I'll get off my soap box for now. I love your reviews and as always they stimulate excellent followup discussions.

And among the top teams that are viable SB contenders and have elite, franchise QB's in place the Bills have had and continue to have the worst Offensive Line of the lot of them. Allen's play over the years has hid just how bad our O line has been.

Included in this has to be a change in what the Bills prioritize in the draft & FA going forward. The offense must be built to take advantage of the special skills that Allen brings to the table. The Bills have refused to commit high end draft choices and FA signings to the O line and we're seeing the result. The Bills have also failed to invest properly in high end skill position players. Look at the Eagles with Hurts, Miami with Tua, KC with Mahomes, Cincy with Burrow, Dallas with Dak, the Lions with Giff and the Jags with Lawrence. And soon you will be seeing it in Houston with Stroud. Hell, SF built a spectacular offense without the QB in place and then traded away a kings ransom to land their version of Allen. Yea it didn't work out for them but it wasn't for lack of their prioritizing their offense.

You forgot to add minimum investment in the offensive line which is even a bigger problem. Since McD has been coach (2017) the Bills have not spent a #1 pick on an O lineman nor have they signed a big time FA.

More on why context is important. I posted this on another thread where a guy was holding out Burrow as an example of everything Allen isn't with respect to TO's: "Let's be clear here: Burrow has a total of 14 TD's and 6 INT's and 1 LOST FUMBLE. I don't care about "fumbles" only lost fumbles. Allen has 26 total TD's and 11 INT's and 3 lost fumbles. So Burrow's TD/TO ration is a very good 2 and Allen's is an almost as good 1.85. Anyway you slice the data the "Allen is a TO machine" narrative is way overblown. BTW, Burrow's 2 BAD INT's in the 4th quarter against the Texans lost the Bengal's that game. Allen's TO against Denver ere nowhere near as damaging or as bad."

Think about the great pass Allen threw against the Jags that Diggs had BOTH hands on at the 5 yard line and the ball was wrestled away by the DB for an INT. Diggs is a great WR but he's average on those kinds of balls. And the Bills have been without a WR that can routinely make those kinds of catches since Allen has been here.

building on the "bad luck" point check out this odd stat:

Let's be clear here: Burrow has a total of 14 TD's and 6 INT's and 1 LOST FUMBLE. I don't care about "fumbles" only lost fumbles. Allen has 26 total TD's and 11 INT's and 3 lost fumbles. So Burrow's TD/TO ration is a very good 2 and Allen's is an almost as good 1.85. Anyway you slice the data the "Allen is a TO machine" narrative is way overblown. BTW, Burrow's 2 BAD INT's in the 4th quarter against the Texans lost the Bengal's that game. Allen's TO against Denver ere nowhere near as damaging or as bad. But hey I'm an Allen apologist so hat do I know.

My first response to this was to give you the vomit emoji. But then I thought about it for a few minutes and this is not such a bad idea. Importantly Bienemy is an offensively minded coach and that alone would be an upgrade over McD. Second, he's gotten more out of Sam Howell then most coaches would get. Imagine what he could do with Allen. Do I think the Bills could do better then Bienemy? Absolutely. But I would bring him in for a serious interview. The job he's done with Howell makes this guy an intriguing possibility.

Well if this was the intent then we have a better chance of Miami collapsing and sneaking into the playoffs as a division champ. Not because I don't think Allen can get out of this rough patch and be the QB we know he can be. But I'm pessimistic because I don't believe Allen struggling is the most important part of why our offense is struggling. The Bills O has deep systemic issues arising from 5 years of neglect and their over reliance on Allen being great. You can't just turn that around by yanking Allen's "head out of his ass." Until this franchise commits to the offense and that includes coaching then the best we can hope for is when Allen is playing great over an extended period of time the Bills can win the Division and even win a playoff game or two. But that's it. That's the Bills ceiling as this franchise is structured. And I come to this conclusion just considering how the Bills have screwed up their priorities in favoring the D over the O while having an elite franchise QB. This doesn't even take into account that McD has not been able to create an elite D and his tactical mistakes in games is becoming legend.