Inigo Montoya

Great article on the spectacular TE play over the last few seasons in the NFL. If we can add Hockenson and get similar production that would be an epic upgrade for our offense. I think Hockenson has that potential. One of the TE mentioned is George Kittle, an Iowa TE in his second year as a pro. Hockenson is from the same program. Kittle had 88 catches this season for 1,377 yards. There were only 7 players in the entire league with more receiving yards than Kittle. Julio, Hopkins, Evans, Hill, JuJu, Thomas and Adams. Kelsey came in 10th in total yards with 1,336 yards receiving. Ertz comes in at #16 on the list with 1,163 receiving yards. Ertz had 116 receptions this year which is crazy. A great TE can lead an offense in today's NFL. TE is now a premium position in the NFL. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001025559/article/marcedes-lewis-no-question-travis-kelce-is-best-te

I agree that hit doesn't define Allen's career, but I do think it changed the trajectory. Having a chance to pause and look back at your mistakes can be an invaluable thing. It's an old saw but its true, you learn more from your mistakes than you do from your successes. The trick is being honest with yourself and actually examining your mistakes and owning them. I think that break mid-season gave Allen an opportunity to do that, and to his credit, he embraced it. It basically gave Allen a fresh start, a second shot to do things differently. A mulligan. You see this happen all the time in all types of fields, not just football, but we can use a football example. The greatest coach in NFL history got fired from his first head coaching job with... the Cleveland Browns. Wrap your mind around that irony.

You're right, Anderson was signed five days before the Houston game. Thanks.

Does Anderson get signed if Mercilus doesn't knock Allen out?

No way to know who is right on this, but I think I'm right. Maybe it was having a chance to watch how Anderson ran things and prepared for a game. Maybe it was having more time for film study. Maybe it was being able to take a step back and look at the big picture instead of being caught up in the minutiae of weekly game preparation. Bottom line is that Josh Allen week 12 is a different QB than Josh Allen week 6. The mental part of the game slowed down for him during those six weeks. I don't know if that happens this season otherwise.

Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and ChroniclePublished 3:28 p.m. ET Oct. 17, 2018 ORCHARD PARK – Sean McDermott made it pretty clear, without actually saying the words, that he felt the hit Josh Allen took on his right elbow from Houston linebacker Whitney Mercilus on Sunday was a cheap shot. “I’m not going to go into that,” McDermott said Wednesday, shortly after he announced that Derek Anderson would take over as the starting quarterback in Allen’s expected month long absence. “I’ve addressed that with the powers that be and I’m not going to go any further on that.” Watching the replay, it certainly looks like Mercilus lowered his helmet and aimed it right at Allen’s elbow, and in an age where protecting the quarterback seems to be more important than anything else, referee Craig Wrolstad did not throw a flag. Not that it would have mattered because the damage was already done. Allen took a direct shot, and after playing one more snap and realizing the pain was too great, he took a knee and called for the trainers, who then removed him from the game. I was furious watching Allen go down on what looked like a cheap shot and obvious Roughing penalty. Mercilus led with his helmet and hammered Allen's throwing arm. When Allen went out and didn't come back in I felt gut punched. When the initial reports said Allen might need season ending surgery on his throwing arm I was livid. As a lifelong Bills fan I though here was just another example of the black cloud that had seemed to settle in over our city and our football team. We just couldn't catch a break. Week 6 of the season and the season was already over. It's not that Allen was tearing it up, in fact he looked pretty shaky, but he flashed his ability enough like in the Minnesota game to make me optimistic that with some more playing experience there was a chance he could really be our franchise QB. Now that was gone and I was worried 2018 would simply be another wasted year for this team. Fortunately the news came back that Allen would not need surgery and would likely miss several weeks but he had a chance to return this season. Week 12 and Allen is back behind center, but this doesn't look like the Josh Allen we were watching before the injury. He was getting the ball out faster, taking less sacks. He was more poised and less apt to run at the first sign of trouble, hanging in the pocket more. He seemed to be reading the defense better. He was going to the right receivers more often (even if they dropped it), he was starting to look like a real franchise quarterback. It was really night and day, the way he played before the injury and how he played after. It looked like the game had finally slowed down for Allen. You hear that expression a lot but I have never seen a more stark example of it. Something clicked for Allen during those six weeks he was convalescing in the middle of the season that let him recalibrate his game. Maybe it was having the time to spend critically examining every snap he took and studying how the defenses were playing him. He didn't have to worry about preparing for this weeks opponent. Didn't have to worry about learning the game plan. He wasn't spending time working on the physical aspects of the game, he was forced to work on the mental aspect of his game and it seems to be exactly what he needed. Josh Allen after the injury was a different quarterback. Without that injury and that six week break in the middle of the season, I don't think Allen makes the jump he did this season. I think he would have continued to muddle through the rest of the season continuing to flash his raw ability but not evolving like he did. Every quarterback at this level can throw the ball. It is the ability to mentally process the game quickly, on the field, while bodies are flying around you, that separates the mediocre QBs from the true franchise QBs. It was that change in Allen's mental game after the injury that made all the difference. Without Mercilus's cheap shot on Allen in week 6, I think there is no way we see Allen's renaissance in the second half of the season. I don't think he heads into this off season with a head of steam and a lot of confidence. I think that six week mid-season sabbatical was the best thing that could have happened to Josh Allen. If Allen goes on to become a true franchise QB he might owe it all to Whitney Mercilus. Buffalo Bills 2018 season MVP... Whitney Mercilus.

I was initially hoping they would trade back but I think the value of the prospects around #9 is just too great. If they can grab Oliver or Hockenson or one of the elite EDGE rushers that drops for some reason, I think you have to pull the trigger there. One of the best things about the draft though is all the surprise moves and it seems that every year there are more trades and more moving around with teams jumping up and down the board. It should be a fun to watch. I really have a lot of faith in our current front office. I think they nailed free agency this year, I don't expect them to turn around and bungle the draft.

I wish! I'm going to be at the draft this year with my son. I've never been to an NFL draft before. We only live two hours from Nashville and we will be there for the first two days. If you see someone wearing a blue Kyle Williams jersey who looks just like Matthew McConaughey, except for being older, bald, heavier, and way less attractive, that will be me!!!

Sometimes you just need a chance...

Fair enough. Peace. ?

Yep, I'm a simpleton. You, YodaMan79, are an anonymous internet football message board genius. I get distracted by squirrels and shiny objects all the time. How dare I support the Bills selecting a TE, a player who is a consensus top 10 draft pick, on a team starved for offensive production? If Beane hadn't gone buck wild on the O-line in FA, I would say we should draft a O-lineman at 9. I don't think we need to do that anymore. If you read my posts you will see that I would also be fine with Oliver at 9, but I think this offense and Josh Allen needs help more than our defense does, and if Oliver and Hockenson have similar grades and they are both sitting there at 9, I think the tie goes to the offense and Allen. The fact that there were not many TEs drafted high previously means exactly nothing today as the game is changing. The TE position is undergoing a renaissance in the NFL and many teams are using them as the focal point of the offense, not a just supporting position. Look at Kittle, Gronk, Ertz, Kelce. Or maybe I'm just making their WR1 production up. The fact that at least two and probably three TEs are projected to go in the first round this year torpedoes your point completely don't ya think? Do you really want to play the "where someone got drafted game" like anyone can't throw out the names of a dozen players in a minute who were drafted too high or were a late round gem to try to make a point on either side of the argument? Using your logic I could hear you say, "Tom Brady was a sixth round draft pick and he's the GOAT so only a simpleton would draft a QB in the first round!" In the end YodaMan, you may be right. I've got no problem with anyone disagreeing with my position, because while I think I can back up my arguments well, I don't believe that I have some cosmic monopoly on the truth. If you want to disagree with me, fine, but drop the name calling BS. Act like a grown up not some #### sure teenager hurling insults on this message board. In short, quit being a jerk. I do not mean to pry, but you don't by any chance happen to have six fingers on your right hand?

Hey GimmeSome I don't think Fant or Irv Smith will make it out of the first round. I think Hockenson goes in the top 12. He might not even make it to 9 rendering this whole discussion moot. I saw mocks with him going to the Jags at 7 and the Lions at 8 earlier in the week. Admittedly, I don't know much about Stenberger. Is he pretty solid? The draft is always a crap shoot. First round busts, late round gems. Kyle Williams 5th rounder. Travis Kelce 3rd rounder. Who knows?

I respectfully disagree TPS. If the success or failure of your entire tenure as a GM depends on Josh Allen becoming a franchise QB, I think you draft the All Pro TE. Imagine having Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz on this offense...

I know there is another post about Hock from three weeks ago discussing this. It is eleven pages long. I spent three hours working on my post between looking things up and actually writing it. I know, that’s a bit much for a post on a TBD message board, but that’s how it goes sometimes because I know posters are going to challenge my position and I want to lay out my thoughts clearly and back them up with stats and facts. I take no offense at you guys pointing out that there is another thread addressing this topic. Hell, Yolo brings more value to this board in one week than I have in the entire time I’ve been here. I think at some point though, a thread gets so long it stops being useful or manageable. At the end of the day, agree with my premise about drafting Hock or not, but I think I put together a rational post with new information in it. I didn’t want to put that effort into a post just to bury it at the end of an 11 page thread from three weeks ago. Now back to the topic again, look at the production of Gronk, Ertz, Kelce, and Kittle. They are the WR1 on their teams most years and are putting up league wide WR1 numbers. I would take that kind of production for the #9 pick any day, especially on our struggling offense. I think Hockenson has that potential. I think Hock, Fant, and Irv Smith are all gone in the 1st. If we don’t grab a TE at 9 we aren’t getting any of them unless you want to trade back into the first round and there is no way to know if you will even be able to do so. If you do trade back into the first round you will end up expending a lot of draft capital to grab the second or third best TE in the draft because Hock is going to be a top 12 pick and won’t be there. Daboll knows the value of having a big time TE in his offense and I think he will be pushing hard for Hockenson at 9. Will I be upset if we draft Oliver? Nope. The kid looks great. The problem is that Oliver doesn’t help Allen develop and Allen developing means everything for this franchise. It also means we roll into season two of Allen’s tenure with no WR1 on the team or go-to guy for Allen. I don’t mean to minimize the value of Brown, Beasley, and Kroft, but none of them are going to be the cornerstone of an offense like a Gronk, Ertz, Kittle, or Kelce are. I think Allen needs a cornerstone.

@NewEraBills I think Allen can make any throw. Hockenson & Beasley. Gronk & Edelman. There is a precedent for having a great TE and slot guy working over a defense together. I’m not saying the two pairs of players are equal, but the concept of how to use them is already established and Daboll knows it inside out. I think they did enough in FA to shore up the O-line that we don’t have to go OT at 9.

I wanted to put together all the reasons why I think McBeane will grab T.J. if he is there at #9 when the Bills are on the clock. 1.) It has been stated many times on this board that the success or failure of the entire McBeane Era will come down to just one thing, does Josh Allen become a true franchise QB. Helping Allen continue to develop is the single most important factor in this franchise turning the corner. I think McBeane wants to give Josh Allen a go-to-guy that he can lean on and bail him out when needed. They believe in that so much that they were willing to chase Antonio Brown in FA and bring him into this locker room, with all of Brown's attendant drama, and shell out some serous cash to get him into a Bill's uniform. They understand it's critically important for Josh Allen to get some weapons on the offense. 2.) T.J. Hockenson is widely considered the best TE in the draft. He won the John Mackey Award as the nations top collegiate TE. He is the best blocking TE in the draft, has great route running skills, soft hands, and the size to go up and grab those 50/50 balls. He is a complete TE, he can catch and block. He is a three down TE. He is a process guy. Combine: "Hockenson is currently seen as the better overall prospect (over Fant), due to superior blocking abilities. Still, his athletic ability left nothing to be desired. At 6-foot-4 3/4 and 251 pounds, Hockenson’s 4.70-second time in the 40-yard dash is very good. The same goes for his 37.5-inch vertical and 10-foot-3 broad jump. However, his agility numbers are the equal of many of the better wide receivers in this year’s draft class, with a 7.02-second time in the 3-cone drill and a short shuttle time of 4.18." 3.) Some say you should not select a TE at #9, it is not a premium position. I disagree. The NFL game is evolving on offense and many teams have built their offense around a great TE. Gronk and the Pats for years, Ertz in Philly, Kelce in K.C., Olson in Carolina, and recently Kittle in San Fran. They are offenses that scheme to create mismatches with their TE, too big for a corner to cover well, too fast for a LB to keep up with. You don't need a true WR1 if you have a great TE. We don't have a WR1 and we are not likely going to draft a WR who is going to be a WR1 this year. 4.) The kid can block. For years Shady feasted running behind the left side of our line, Glenn-Incognito-Woods. Now imagine running behind the left side of the line with Hockenson-Nsekhe-Spain-Morse (I think Nsekhe beats out Dawkins). I think Shady will be back in business. Better yet, the defense won't know if Hockenson is there to block on a running play, or going out into the flat or up the seam as a receiver. In this alignment, which should be our base offensive set, it will be hard for a defense to guess run vs pass. In Hockenson we are drafting a great TE and a solid O-lineman in one pick. I think there is some extra value there. 5.) Of course, for this to work you need to have an offensive coordinator who understands how to utilize the TE creatively. Enter Brian Daboll, formerly of the Rob Gronkowski Patriots. Not only was he there to see it, he was actually the TE coach for the Pats from 2014-2016. Gronk had 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs in 15 games in 2014, 72 catches for 1,176 yards and 11 TDs in 15 games in 2015, and was injured in 2016 but still posted 25 catches for 540 yards and 3 TDs in only 8 games, two of which he was knocked out of early, and two others he was limited in. I'd say Daboll understands both how to scheme for a TE, and understands the value of the TE position. 6.) Daboll is not the only one who recognizes the value of a great TE. These are quotes from Sean McDermott at the owners meeting two weeks ago about what Greg Olson meant to the development of Cam Newton and to the offense overall. "I liked it when we were on offense and it was third and about five because I knew we were going to get a 1st down because we had Greg Olson." Talking about watching Olson in Carolina and Chad Lewis in Philly play, "I feel like I learned at an early age about how important that tight end position is to a quarterback, and particularly a young quarterback, it becomes a security blanket." Who else watched the impact Olson had on Cam Newton as his security blanket in Carolina? Some guy named Brandon Beane. 7.) Signing Tyler Kroft does not preclude them drafting Hockenson at #9. Once again at the owner's meeting McDermott stressed the importance of player leadership, of having a veteran leader in every position room who would hold the young guys accountable and show them the ropes. I think McDermott learned this lesson the hard way seeing the impact a lack of veteran leadership in the QB room had on Allen's development. I think this will be Kroft's main role, to mentor Hockenson, and hopefully Kroft will also bounce back to his 2017 form where he had 42 receptions and 7 TDs, but that would be icing on the cake. McDermott said it plainly "Ideally, you have a leader in every room (position room), and a competition in every room because competition brings out the best in all of us." 8.) Right now we only have three TEs on the roster, Kroft, Croom, and Jake Fisher from Cincy who is a converted O-Lineman. We rolled into the season last year with four, Clay, Croom, Logan Thomas, and Khari Lee on the roster opening day. We definitely have space for another TE or two on the roster to take into camp. We had six TEs in camp last year with O'Leary and Towbridge there as well. We will be drafting a TE in this draft. Do we go DT or EDGE in the draft at #9 and hope we can trade back up into the 1st round to grab Fant or Irv Smith? We can try, but there is no guarantee we will be able to do that, and neither of those guys are getting out of the 1st round. If we don't grab Hockenson at #9, we may not get an elite TE prospect in this draft at all. 9.) And lastly, to circle back around to the first point, there will be some great defensive players available when we draft at #9 that would immediately upgrade the defense and address a need at DT or EDGE. At the end of the day, the Bills will rise or fall as a franchise over the next three years based on what Josh Allen becomes. If you have a weapon like T.J Hockenson sitting there who can be the go-to weapon that Allen needs, possibly the next Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Olson, or even a Gronk, develop into Allen's "security blanket", be a beast in the run game, and a be high character Process kind of guy to boot, I don't know how you pass him up especially considering the lack of any WR1 on this team for Josh Allen. Will there be a learning curve for a rookie TE? Of course, but I think McBeane sees the 2019 season as a stepping stone for 2020 (I still think we will be much improved and make the playoffs in 2019). 2019 will be the season that Hockenson learns the pro game, gels with the O-line, and develops a rapport with Allen. I believe the plan is for this team to be good enough to contend for a Super Bowl in 2020 if Allen continues to develop. I think Allen having a weapon like T.J. Hockenson around him is more impactful to this team taking that next step than adding another great defensive player this year.

All valid points and well reasoned positions. I appreciate you disagreeing with my post without being disagreeable, something that is sorely lacking here at times. I plead guilty to not looking at Sportrac before posting “@$100 million”. I would guess we will be around $80-85 million in cap space after we sign our rookies and release players at cut downs, and if the salary cap goes up again next year. I think Beane and McDermott and the Pegulas are all on the same page, they have a plan, and they seem to be working that plan. Let’s just unpack this free agency. Like most here, I have been banging the “fix the O-line drum” all off-season. I was hoping Beane would be able to upgrade two O-line positions in FA before heading into the draft, and it looks like Beane has upgraded four. He added two veteran wide receivers who can catch the ball and show the young guys in the WR room how to be a pro. They even poached the best receiver in the CFL and I’m excited to see what he can do. I’m also big on Andre Roberts, a less heralded signing, but I wouldn’t be surprised to look back at a game this season where his return ability meant the difference between a win and a loss for this team. A modest amount of cap space very wisely spent. I’m not a pie in the sky Bill’s fan. I’ve been a Bill’s fan far too long for that. I agree with you 100% that the proof of how well Beane is really doing will play out over the next couple of seasons in the wins and losses column. At the end of the day though, when I try and look at where this franchise is objectively, I think this team is on the road to being relevant again for the first time in a long time.

I can see your point Bray but I think the TE position is evolving in the league right now. If we got a Kelsey or Ertz or Gronk at #9 I think we would all be happy. You can build an entire offense around a great TE today, you don’t need a WR1. I started a thread about Beane being a top 5 GM and a lot of people have the opinion that question rests on how good Allen becomes. I agree with them, that’s why I think they go Hockenson at #9. Allen still needs a go to weapon and Hockenson can be that guy. In an interview at the recent NFL owner’s meeting McDermott spoke about how important Greg Olsen was to the development of Cam Newton, he called him a “security blanket” for Cam. I think Hockenson gets the nod if he’s still on the board.

Cleaned up salary cap disaster in one year Wheeled and dealed to get into position to draft a franchise QB Not afraid to roll the dice on an upside player, and more importantly, not afraid to admit a mistake and cut their ass if it doesn’t work Addressed O-line and WR, largest team weaknesses in FA, on team friendly deals without breaking the bank Still has a top 10 draft pick in his pocket and nine other picks Should have @$100 million in space next year to extend our own talent instead of watching it walk Has the stones to go after AB, and the brains to walk away Gets up in front of the entire NFL and national sports media and tells them all to suck his d*** for bad mouthing Buffalo We’ll all see how it plays out on the field this season, but I think Beane has this franchise in the best shape it’s been in twenty years

Tom is in a unique situation. His wife is the main bread winner in their family. For as much as Tom has made in his career, Gisele has made much more modeling. It's easy to accept less when your paycheck is basically spare change in the household. When Tom retires Gisele will keep bringing in an 8 figure salary for years to come. She was tied for the 5th highest paid runway model last year at a cool $10 million in earnings. Gisele doesn't mind if Tom decides to take a discount on his nice little NFL hobby. Career Earnings; Gisele $386 million Tom $197.2 million

One thing to consider with renovating New Era field up to a level more consistent with today's NFL stadiums is, as anyone who has moved into a fixer upper can attest, once you start tearing down stuff to replace or fix, you are going to find more "issues" that need to be addressed. A lot of times fixing those issues is just about as expensive as the planned renovation. It took me three days to replace a toilet in my house because the standard size of the flange on a toilet in 1952 was no longer the standard size of toilet flanges today. Now multiply that times a thousand for the "Ralph". It will be a nightmare. Another thing to consider is that the Bills have no where else to play football if they go down this renovation road. That means that any renovation will have to be completed between football seasons. Not much renovating done outside in WNY in January and February due to the weather. That leaves a roughly 5 month window to get things taken apart and put back together in time for the next season to start. That's not a very big window to do hundreds of millions of dollars worth of renovations. So it will need to be done incrementally and doing something incrementally increases the cost of the renovations. It's cheaper doing construction to bring in the whole gang one time and get er done than to set up and tear down, and set up and tear down... I firmly believe it is going to end up being a new construction somewhere down town. As I noted in a recent post, there is simply too much money to be made by everyone... politicians, developers, union bosses, etc.. by building a new stadium down town. There will be pressure from all of those entities to tie any public monies to a new stadium, with a roof, downtown. None of this will get done without public money, and ultimately I think they will only get that money with a new downtown stadium.

From Rotoworld today; SNY's Ralph Vacchiano said the Giants aren't "kidding" about bringing Eli Manning back in 2020. The Giants are well aware that Manning is nearing the finish line, but it doesn't sound like they're smitten with any of the quarterbacks in next month's draft and may decide to ride it out with Eli a bit longer. Per Vacchiano, the G-Men saw a lot of "positive signs" from Manning down the stretch in 2018 and "won't hesitate" to extend his contract for another year. Even if New York won't admit it, the former Super Bowl MVP is undoubtedly on the decline and the Giants probably should have drafted his successor when they had the chance a year ago. With Odell Beckham gone and Saquon Barkley emerging as the clear focal point of New York's offense, the 38-year-old will likely serve in a game-manager capacity going forward. AND Ralph Vacchiano of SNY was told by a team source that the Giants will likely select a pass-rusher with the sixth overall pick. The source told Vacchiano, "As much as we need a young quarterback, I honestly don't know how we can pass on one of the pass rushers at six." Most would agree Eli Manning is on his last leg and while Vacchiano confirms that Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins is a "real option" for the G-Men, GM Dave Gettleman seems to be zeroing in on defense with the sixth pick. The trio of Nick Bosa, Josh Allen and Quinnen Williams probably won't be available at No. 6, but Rashan Gary, Ed Oliver and Montez Sweat should be if New York indeed chooses to address its pass-rushing need. Even with Manning on borrowed time, it doesn't appear drafting his successor is at the top of Gettleman's to-do list. This begs two obvious questions; A) Is this a Gettleman pre-draft smokescreen? B) Did Gettleman get dropped on his head as a baby?

Jerome Bettis is another back who is in the Hall but never gets mentioned in the pantheon of greats like Sanders, Emmitt, Gayle, Walter, Dickenson, Brown but his numbers are right there with all of them and that guy was just a fun back to watch play. For a man that big and powerful he was incredibly nimble. I always liked watching the Bus.

It's all a crap shoot. We all make our best guess based on the information at hand. I wanted Allen for no other reason than I thought he looked like a franchise QB, straight out of central casting. I also liked the small town farm boy narrative. (How's that for rigid scientific reasoning) You probably watched forty hours of film on the guy and spoke to his second grade teacher. If you end up being wrong about Allen (which would be a good thing as you've stated) who cares? There are so many variables involved with a player's development all you can do is make an educated guess and see what happens. In any event, I'm looking forward to your posts on this year's draft and your after game write ups during the season. I always read your posts Gunner, you're one of the best posters on the board. You bring a steady, reasoned analysis and I appreciate it.

I could see the Bills grabbing Hockenson at 9. In the recent owner's meetings they interviewed McDermott and he talked about what a huge part of the offense Greg Olsen was in Carolina and how much he helped being a security blanket for Cam Newton. He said Olsen was automatic on those 3rd and 5 situations and kept the chains moving. Said they didn't have a true WR1 but it didn't matter because Olsen filled that gap. I think Beane and McDermott understand the future success of their tenure with Buffalo all depends on Allen developing into a true franchise QB. I think that gives Hock the edge at #9. Allen will have improved skill players around him after this free agency period, but he still does not have a true WR1 or some other go-to guy on the offense to help him continue to develop. Imagine a Kelce, Gronk, Ertz, or Kittle on our roster? If McBeane sees Hockenson in that same vein, I think Hockenson is eating wings with blue cheese on April 26th.