Inigo Montoya

I respectfully disagree TPS. If the success or failure of your entire tenure as a GM depends on Josh Allen becoming a franchise QB, I think you draft the All Pro TE. Imagine having Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz on this offense...

I know there is another post about Hock from three weeks ago discussing this. It is eleven pages long. I spent three hours working on my post between looking things up and actually writing it. I know, that’s a bit much for a post on a TBD message board, but that’s how it goes sometimes because I know posters are going to challenge my position and I want to lay out my thoughts clearly and back them up with stats and facts. I take no offense at you guys pointing out that there is another thread addressing this topic. Hell, Yolo brings more value to this board in one week than I have in the entire time I’ve been here. I think at some point though, a thread gets so long it stops being useful or manageable. At the end of the day, agree with my premise about drafting Hock or not, but I think I put together a rational post with new information in it. I didn’t want to put that effort into a post just to bury it at the end of an 11 page thread from three weeks ago. Now back to the topic again, look at the production of Gronk, Ertz, Kelce, and Kittle. They are the WR1 on their teams most years and are putting up league wide WR1 numbers. I would take that kind of production for the #9 pick any day, especially on our struggling offense. I think Hockenson has that potential. I think Hock, Fant, and Irv Smith are all gone in the 1st. If we don’t grab a TE at 9 we aren’t getting any of them unless you want to trade back into the first round and there is no way to know if you will even be able to do so. If you do trade back into the first round you will end up expending a lot of draft capital to grab the second or third best TE in the draft because Hock is going to be a top 12 pick and won’t be there. Daboll knows the value of having a big time TE in his offense and I think he will be pushing hard for Hockenson at 9. Will I be upset if we draft Oliver? Nope. The kid looks great. The problem is that Oliver doesn’t help Allen develop and Allen developing means everything for this franchise. It also means we roll into season two of Allen’s tenure with no WR1 on the team or go-to guy for Allen. I don’t mean to minimize the value of Brown, Beasley, and Kroft, but none of them are going to be the cornerstone of an offense like a Gronk, Ertz, Kittle, or Kelce are. I think Allen needs a cornerstone.

@NewEraBills I think Allen can make any throw. Hockenson & Beasley. Gronk & Edelman. There is a precedent for having a great TE and slot guy working over a defense together. I’m not saying the two pairs of players are equal, but the concept of how to use them is already established and Daboll knows it inside out. I think they did enough in FA to shore up the O-line that we don’t have to go OT at 9.

I wanted to put together all the reasons why I think McBeane will grab T.J. if he is there at #9 when the Bills are on the clock. 1.) It has been stated many times on this board that the success or failure of the entire McBeane Era will come down to just one thing, does Josh Allen become a true franchise QB. Helping Allen continue to develop is the single most important factor in this franchise turning the corner. I think McBeane wants to give Josh Allen a go-to-guy that he can lean on and bail him out when needed. They believe in that so much that they were willing to chase Antonio Brown in FA and bring him into this locker room, with all of Brown's attendant drama, and shell out some serous cash to get him into a Bill's uniform. They understand it's critically important for Josh Allen to get some weapons on the offense. 2.) T.J. Hockenson is widely considered the best TE in the draft. He won the John Mackey Award as the nations top collegiate TE. He is the best blocking TE in the draft, has great route running skills, soft hands, and the size to go up and grab those 50/50 balls. He is a complete TE, he can catch and block. He is a three down TE. He is a process guy. Combine: "Hockenson is currently seen as the better overall prospect (over Fant), due to superior blocking abilities. Still, his athletic ability left nothing to be desired. At 6-foot-4 3/4 and 251 pounds, Hockenson’s 4.70-second time in the 40-yard dash is very good. The same goes for his 37.5-inch vertical and 10-foot-3 broad jump. However, his agility numbers are the equal of many of the better wide receivers in this year’s draft class, with a 7.02-second time in the 3-cone drill and a short shuttle time of 4.18." 3.) Some say you should not select a TE at #9, it is not a premium position. I disagree. The NFL game is evolving on offense and many teams have built their offense around a great TE. Gronk and the Pats for years, Ertz in Philly, Kelce in K.C., Olson in Carolina, and recently Kittle in San Fran. They are offenses that scheme to create mismatches with their TE, too big for a corner to cover well, too fast for a LB to keep up with. You don't need a true WR1 if you have a great TE. We don't have a WR1 and we are not likely going to draft a WR who is going to be a WR1 this year. 4.) The kid can block. For years Shady feasted running behind the left side of our line, Glenn-Incognito-Woods. Now imagine running behind the left side of the line with Hockenson-Nsekhe-Spain-Morse (I think Nsekhe beats out Dawkins). I think Shady will be back in business. Better yet, the defense won't know if Hockenson is there to block on a running play, or going out into the flat or up the seam as a receiver. In this alignment, which should be our base offensive set, it will be hard for a defense to guess run vs pass. In Hockenson we are drafting a great TE and a solid O-lineman in one pick. I think there is some extra value there. 5.) Of course, for this to work you need to have an offensive coordinator who understands how to utilize the TE creatively. Enter Brian Daboll, formerly of the Rob Gronkowski Patriots. Not only was he there to see it, he was actually the TE coach for the Pats from 2014-2016. Gronk had 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs in 15 games in 2014, 72 catches for 1,176 yards and 11 TDs in 15 games in 2015, and was injured in 2016 but still posted 25 catches for 540 yards and 3 TDs in only 8 games, two of which he was knocked out of early, and two others he was limited in. I'd say Daboll understands both how to scheme for a TE, and understands the value of the TE position. 6.) Daboll is not the only one who recognizes the value of a great TE. These are quotes from Sean McDermott at the owners meeting two weeks ago about what Greg Olson meant to the development of Cam Newton and to the offense overall. "I liked it when we were on offense and it was third and about five because I knew we were going to get a 1st down because we had Greg Olson." Talking about watching Olson in Carolina and Chad Lewis in Philly play, "I feel like I learned at an early age about how important that tight end position is to a quarterback, and particularly a young quarterback, it becomes a security blanket." Who else watched the impact Olson had on Cam Newton as his security blanket in Carolina? Some guy named Brandon Beane. 7.) Signing Tyler Kroft does not preclude them drafting Hockenson at #9. Once again at the owner's meeting McDermott stressed the importance of player leadership, of having a veteran leader in every position room who would hold the young guys accountable and show them the ropes. I think McDermott learned this lesson the hard way seeing the impact a lack of veteran leadership in the QB room had on Allen's development. I think this will be Kroft's main role, to mentor Hockenson, and hopefully Kroft will also bounce back to his 2017 form where he had 42 receptions and 7 TDs, but that would be icing on the cake. McDermott said it plainly "Ideally, you have a leader in every room (position room), and a competition in every room because competition brings out the best in all of us." 8.) Right now we only have three TEs on the roster, Kroft, Croom, and Jake Fisher from Cincy who is a converted O-Lineman. We rolled into the season last year with four, Clay, Croom, Logan Thomas, and Khari Lee on the roster opening day. We definitely have space for another TE or two on the roster to take into camp. We had six TEs in camp last year with O'Leary and Towbridge there as well. We will be drafting a TE in this draft. Do we go DT or EDGE in the draft at #9 and hope we can trade back up into the 1st round to grab Fant or Irv Smith? We can try, but there is no guarantee we will be able to do that, and neither of those guys are getting out of the 1st round. If we don't grab Hockenson at #9, we may not get an elite TE prospect in this draft at all. 9.) And lastly, to circle back around to the first point, there will be some great defensive players available when we draft at #9 that would immediately upgrade the defense and address a need at DT or EDGE. At the end of the day, the Bills will rise or fall as a franchise over the next three years based on what Josh Allen becomes. If you have a weapon like T.J Hockenson sitting there who can be the go-to weapon that Allen needs, possibly the next Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Olson, or even a Gronk, develop into Allen's "security blanket", be a beast in the run game, and a be high character Process kind of guy to boot, I don't know how you pass him up especially considering the lack of any WR1 on this team for Josh Allen. Will there be a learning curve for a rookie TE? Of course, but I think McBeane sees the 2019 season as a stepping stone for 2020 (I still think we will be much improved and make the playoffs in 2019). 2019 will be the season that Hockenson learns the pro game, gels with the O-line, and develops a rapport with Allen. I believe the plan is for this team to be good enough to contend for a Super Bowl in 2020 if Allen continues to develop. I think Allen having a weapon like T.J. Hockenson around him is more impactful to this team taking that next step than adding another great defensive player this year.

All valid points and well reasoned positions. I appreciate you disagreeing with my post without being disagreeable, something that is sorely lacking here at times. I plead guilty to not looking at Sportrac before posting “@$100 million”. I would guess we will be around $80-85 million in cap space after we sign our rookies and release players at cut downs, and if the salary cap goes up again next year. I think Beane and McDermott and the Pegulas are all on the same page, they have a plan, and they seem to be working that plan. Let’s just unpack this free agency. Like most here, I have been banging the “fix the O-line drum” all off-season. I was hoping Beane would be able to upgrade two O-line positions in FA before heading into the draft, and it looks like Beane has upgraded four. He added two veteran wide receivers who can catch the ball and show the young guys in the WR room how to be a pro. They even poached the best receiver in the CFL and I’m excited to see what he can do. I’m also big on Andre Roberts, a less heralded signing, but I wouldn’t be surprised to look back at a game this season where his return ability meant the difference between a win and a loss for this team. A modest amount of cap space very wisely spent. I’m not a pie in the sky Bill’s fan. I’ve been a Bill’s fan far too long for that. I agree with you 100% that the proof of how well Beane is really doing will play out over the next couple of seasons in the wins and losses column. At the end of the day though, when I try and look at where this franchise is objectively, I think this team is on the road to being relevant again for the first time in a long time.

I can see your point Bray but I think the TE position is evolving in the league right now. If we got a Kelsey or Ertz or Gronk at #9 I think we would all be happy. You can build an entire offense around a great TE today, you don’t need a WR1. I started a thread about Beane being a top 5 GM and a lot of people have the opinion that question rests on how good Allen becomes. I agree with them, that’s why I think they go Hockenson at #9. Allen still needs a go to weapon and Hockenson can be that guy. In an interview at the recent NFL owner’s meeting McDermott spoke about how important Greg Olsen was to the development of Cam Newton, he called him a “security blanket” for Cam. I think Hockenson gets the nod if he’s still on the board.

Cleaned up salary cap disaster in one year Wheeled and dealed to get into position to draft a franchise QB Not afraid to roll the dice on an upside player, and more importantly, not afraid to admit a mistake and cut their ass if it doesn’t work Addressed O-line and WR, largest team weaknesses in FA, on team friendly deals without breaking the bank Still has a top 10 draft pick in his pocket and nine other picks Should have @$100 million in space next year to extend our own talent instead of watching it walk Has the stones to go after AB, and the brains to walk away Gets up in front of the entire NFL and national sports media and tells them all to suck his d*** for bad mouthing Buffalo We’ll all see how it plays out on the field this season, but I think Beane has this franchise in the best shape it’s been in twenty years

Tom is in a unique situation. His wife is the main bread winner in their family. For as much as Tom has made in his career, Gisele has made much more modeling. It's easy to accept less when your paycheck is basically spare change in the household. When Tom retires Gisele will keep bringing in an 8 figure salary for years to come. She was tied for the 5th highest paid runway model last year at a cool $10 million in earnings. Gisele doesn't mind if Tom decides to take a discount on his nice little NFL hobby. Career Earnings; Gisele $386 million Tom $197.2 million

One thing to consider with renovating New Era field up to a level more consistent with today's NFL stadiums is, as anyone who has moved into a fixer upper can attest, once you start tearing down stuff to replace or fix, you are going to find more "issues" that need to be addressed. A lot of times fixing those issues is just about as expensive as the planned renovation. It took me three days to replace a toilet in my house because the standard size of the flange on a toilet in 1952 was no longer the standard size of toilet flanges today. Now multiply that times a thousand for the "Ralph". It will be a nightmare. Another thing to consider is that the Bills have no where else to play football if they go down this renovation road. That means that any renovation will have to be completed between football seasons. Not much renovating done outside in WNY in January and February due to the weather. That leaves a roughly 5 month window to get things taken apart and put back together in time for the next season to start. That's not a very big window to do hundreds of millions of dollars worth of renovations. So it will need to be done incrementally and doing something incrementally increases the cost of the renovations. It's cheaper doing construction to bring in the whole gang one time and get er done than to set up and tear down, and set up and tear down... I firmly believe it is going to end up being a new construction somewhere down town. As I noted in a recent post, there is simply too much money to be made by everyone... politicians, developers, union bosses, etc.. by building a new stadium down town. There will be pressure from all of those entities to tie any public monies to a new stadium, with a roof, downtown. None of this will get done without public money, and ultimately I think they will only get that money with a new downtown stadium.

From Rotoworld today; SNY's Ralph Vacchiano said the Giants aren't "kidding" about bringing Eli Manning back in 2020. The Giants are well aware that Manning is nearing the finish line, but it doesn't sound like they're smitten with any of the quarterbacks in next month's draft and may decide to ride it out with Eli a bit longer. Per Vacchiano, the G-Men saw a lot of "positive signs" from Manning down the stretch in 2018 and "won't hesitate" to extend his contract for another year. Even if New York won't admit it, the former Super Bowl MVP is undoubtedly on the decline and the Giants probably should have drafted his successor when they had the chance a year ago. With Odell Beckham gone and Saquon Barkley emerging as the clear focal point of New York's offense, the 38-year-old will likely serve in a game-manager capacity going forward. AND Ralph Vacchiano of SNY was told by a team source that the Giants will likely select a pass-rusher with the sixth overall pick. The source told Vacchiano, "As much as we need a young quarterback, I honestly don't know how we can pass on one of the pass rushers at six." Most would agree Eli Manning is on his last leg and while Vacchiano confirms that Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins is a "real option" for the G-Men, GM Dave Gettleman seems to be zeroing in on defense with the sixth pick. The trio of Nick Bosa, Josh Allen and Quinnen Williams probably won't be available at No. 6, but Rashan Gary, Ed Oliver and Montez Sweat should be if New York indeed chooses to address its pass-rushing need. Even with Manning on borrowed time, it doesn't appear drafting his successor is at the top of Gettleman's to-do list. This begs two obvious questions; A) Is this a Gettleman pre-draft smokescreen? B) Did Gettleman get dropped on his head as a baby?

Jerome Bettis is another back who is in the Hall but never gets mentioned in the pantheon of greats like Sanders, Emmitt, Gayle, Walter, Dickenson, Brown but his numbers are right there with all of them and that guy was just a fun back to watch play. For a man that big and powerful he was incredibly nimble. I always liked watching the Bus.

It's all a crap shoot. We all make our best guess based on the information at hand. I wanted Allen for no other reason than I thought he looked like a franchise QB, straight out of central casting. I also liked the small town farm boy narrative. (How's that for rigid scientific reasoning) You probably watched forty hours of film on the guy and spoke to his second grade teacher. If you end up being wrong about Allen (which would be a good thing as you've stated) who cares? There are so many variables involved with a player's development all you can do is make an educated guess and see what happens. In any event, I'm looking forward to your posts on this year's draft and your after game write ups during the season. I always read your posts Gunner, you're one of the best posters on the board. You bring a steady, reasoned analysis and I appreciate it.

I could see the Bills grabbing Hockenson at 9. In the recent owner's meetings they interviewed McDermott and he talked about what a huge part of the offense Greg Olsen was in Carolina and how much he helped being a security blanket for Cam Newton. He said Olsen was automatic on those 3rd and 5 situations and kept the chains moving. Said they didn't have a true WR1 but it didn't matter because Olsen filled that gap. I think Beane and McDermott understand the future success of their tenure with Buffalo all depends on Allen developing into a true franchise QB. I think that gives Hock the edge at #9. Allen will have improved skill players around him after this free agency period, but he still does not have a true WR1 or some other go-to guy on the offense to help him continue to develop. Imagine a Kelce, Gronk, Ertz, or Kittle on our roster? If McBeane sees Hockenson in that same vein, I think Hockenson is eating wings with blue cheese on April 26th.

I once started a donnybrook by wondering if the Jets were rope-a-doping everyone and were actually going to draft Barkley and not a QB last year. You would have thought I wrapped the baby Jesus in Old Glory and set them both on fire. Such is life on the mean streets of Two Bills Drive. An extended, wacky, mildly opinionated, dysfunctional family of Bill's Mafioso with just a sprinkling of trolls to keep life interesting. : )

1800's is a slight exaggeration. ; )

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When I was in the service back in the 1800's we had two Sgt. Johnson's in our company. One was black and one was white and over time everyone started calling them Salt and Pepper. Not sure if that would fly in today's society...

All these posts show the pickle that the Pegulas are in. No matter what they decide to do, they will upset about a third of the people who go to the games. I think there are three things though that are clear. 1 ; The stadium will be built downtown, and unfortunately, it has nothing to do with common sense or the game day experience. There is simply more opportunities for public officials and union bosses and developers to get rich if the stadium is built down town. Politicians accepting "campaign contributions" to sign off on the project, union bosses getting their kickbacks, bureaucrats getting an envelope of cash to waive that zoning requirement or environmental impact statement. The businessmen who already own property down town will be working behind the scenes with the politicians they already own to make sure the stadium gets built there to increase the value of their assets. They will all be angling for a piece of the pie and more people will get a piece of the pie if the stadium is built downtown than if it is built out in the boonies of Erie County in Orchard Park. There is going to be a billion dollars spent in Buffalo when this thing kicks off. The biggest project in the history of Western New York. It is a once in a life time opportunity for all these crooks and they are going to make sure they get as much of it as they can. The stadium is going downtown. Book it. 2; This thing will have a roof. Please refer to the point above. There is more money to be made on the stadium if it is a year round venue. The state and city and county are not going to chip in hundreds of millions of dollars for a stadium that gets used a dozen times a year. There isn't enough profit in it for them and everyone else with their hands in the till. The Pegulas will be forced to put a roof on the stadium to get the public funds. 3; The teams HQ and practice facilities will stay in Orchard Park. The Pegulas are quietly building some of the best facilities in the entire league in Orchard Park. No sense in tearing it all down after throwing tens of millions of dollars into it. More than that, it makes no sense to use expensive downtown real estate on weight rooms and training rooms, and cafeterias, and office space when they already have it on the cheap in Orchard Park.

Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Duke Williams is going to be the breakout WR for the Bills this year. The guy can high point the ball like Megatron and seems to win every 50/50 that comes his way. He is going to catch some touchdowns this year. Don't sleep on the Duke, he is going to be a Red Zone monster.

I'm all for player safety, I don't want to see anyone get injured. They have made an effort to remove the head and helmet from tackling and that's great, but if you now penalize the forearm and shoulder initiating contact, how the hell are you supposed to block someone??? "Gather 'round fellas, I want to introduce you to our new blocking coach, Master Po."

I think it's a wise strategy to not spend a lot of resources on a premier free agent RB like LeVeon Bell or using a high draft pick this season. It has been shown again and again that the learning curve moving from the college game to the NFL is easiest at the RB position. Kamara, Barkley, Kareem Hunt are recent examples. Build the rest of the offense that needs time to gel this season. O-lines need time to gel. The QB-WR-TE relationship needs time to develop. I believe that this year is going to be a fun year to be a Bills fan and I expect we'll make the playoffs, but I still don't think we are ready to make a Super Bowl run this year. I think after this season we will have a more experienced QB, a solid and cohesive O-line to protect him, and WRs and TEs that have learned how to catch Allen's bullets. Heading into the 2020 season the only thing we may be missing to have a truly explosive offense is a dynamic, world class running back. I think that 2020 is the year that we grab the best RB in the draft class. A RB who can catch the ball, pass protect, and hammer the rock. Drop him behind that great O-line, getting the ball from a QB who is a threat to run too, and who has a passing attack that is game enough to keep the defense honest and stop them from stacking the box, and you will see an offense every bit as explosive as Kelly, Thurman, and Andre Reed. Drafting that RB stud next season will be the last piece of the offensive puzzle.

You may be right mannc but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a 2nd rounder. In 2017 the Chicago Bears gave up their 3rd and 4th round picks and their 2018 3rd rounder to move up one spot with San Francisco to draft Trubiski. If a team thinks their franchise QB is sitting there at 9, I would expect Beane to ask a hefty price to drop back. It will depend on how badly a team wants to move up and how shrewdly Beane negotiates. I have faith in Beane. He got the first pick of the 3rd round for Tyrod who he was going to release anyways. He got a 5th rounder for McCarron. I think Beane is a pretty savvy horse trader. In any event, it is going to be a fun draft to be a Bills fan. I expect Beane to be moving up and down the board throughout the entire draft as opportunities arise. The best part for me is that my son and I are going to be there for the draft next month. We are only two hours from Nashville. Should be a great time.

I could see someone trading with us to get ahead of Denver. I could also see Denver trading up one spot with us to prevent someone else from jumping ahead of them and stealing their guy. If / when Denver calls while we're on the clock, Beane needs to act like there are multiple teams on the line wanting to trade up into the #9 spot forcing Elway's hand. Flacco is clearly a place holder in Denver and Flacco's contract allows Elway to cut him at any point with no significant cap implications. Best case scenario for us is that Denver moves up one spot with us to ensure they get their guy giving us their 2nd or 3rd round pick in return and we still get the guy we wanted all along at #10.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2019/insider/story/_/id/26322249/pro-day-takeaways-why-drew-lock-getting-top-10-nfl-draft-buzz "With Arizona interested in taking Murray at No. 1, a handful of teams will be interested in trading for Josh Rosen. Then it becomes Haskins versus Lock, and there are teams in the first round that prefer Lock over Haskins right now. The Missouri QB has met with or has plans to meet with all of the QB-needy franchises, and he has plans to have a second meeting and workout with the Dolphins. With his smaller 9-inch hands, ideally he ends up in a dome or a warmer-weather situation, but I haven't seen any issues with weather on tape. Lock marries confidence with the ability to relate with his teammates, and teams will like that. Murray has the natural instincts, and Haskins has incredible football intelligence, but teams will feel comfortable with who Lock is and his full résumé. Don't be surprised if you start hearing more top-10 buzz for Lock." Sounds like Lock tore it up at his pro day. A lot of scouts now thinking he is going to go in the top 10. Music to my ears.

Admittedly, I don't know much about Spain or any of the other O-linemen we have signed this off season. What I do know though is that if I was one of the Bills O-linemen, recently signed or held over from last year, I would get up right now and head to the gym and start hitting the weights hard. It looks like the only position locked down on the O-line is Morse at center. It is going to be a good old fashioned donnybrook for the other four line spots. Brand new O-Line coach, more O-linemen than can possibly make the roster, and your NFL future on the line? Every single one of them is going to have to bring it to make this roster and get on the field. Gotta love Beane creating this kind of competition.