Inigo Montoya

I am still a Hockenson at #9 guy. I think he is the best TE prospect to come out of college in the last 20 years. If he is there at #9, and it is looking increasingly likely that he will already be gone, I think the Bills should grab him and not look back. Elite run blocker. Elite pass blocker. Elite receiver. Process guy. True #1 weapon for Allen. Position of need. Kittle from same program, Pro-Bowl year 2 I don't know how you pass on him.

Inigo's BOLD predictions for 2019 1. A WR on the Buffalo Bills ends up with more receiving touchdowns than Antonio Brown. 2. Josh Allen throws more touchdown passes than Tom Brady. 3. Odell Beckham Jr. is suspended for off the field conduct.

Thanks for your kind words. I don't make those points to lower expectations for Allen this season. The last line of my OP is; "Couple all that with our team friendly schedule this season and I think Allen has a great shot at a break out season." (emphasis added) My point was that it is going to take time for the offense to click with so many new pieces. Both the players and the coaches will need some time to figure it all out. That is not something that is unique to the Bills either. It's common during the first quarter of the season to see defenses routinely out play offenses. It just takes longer for offenses to figure things out and click. With all the changes on the Bills offense that process may take a bit longer this year. That shouldn't preclude them from winning though. My point was the soft schedule in the first quarter of the season when the Bills offense is trying to find its identity may help mitigate those growing pains a little bit. I can't remember a schedule as Bills friendly as this year's is. I still think Allen takes a big step forward this season.

This is essentially a brand new offense this season. It will take some time for all these new players to get comfortable with each other, and just as importantly, it will take some time for Daboll to figure out what they are capable of, their strengths and weaknesses, and learn to game plan accordingly. I'm glad our schedule is easier out of the gate (at least on paper) and gets tougher at the the end of the season when hopefully the O-line has had time to gel and the offense is clicking.

I was wondering what the odds are of a second year QB continuing to develop versus experiencing the dreaded "sophomore slump". There are a few good articles about it that point to the fact that the Sophomore Slump is more fiction than fact since the mid 1980's. Here's a Bleacher Report story published in 2013. It takes a look at 2nd year quarterbacks. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1699076-ranking-the-best-sophomore-qb-seasons-in-nfl-history#slide0 "So much of the discussion about a second-year quarterback revolves around the mythical sophomore slump. Rather than talk about that player taking a step forward in the NFL, we expect them to decline after experiencing rookie success. Including Cam Newton and Andy Dalton last year, 17 of the last 22 quarterbacks in position to have a sophomore slump did not have one. That means 77.3 percent either stayed at the same level or improved." In 2016 Rolling Stone took a look at this and came to the same conclusion; https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-sports/why-the-quarterback-sophomore-slump-is-football-myth-109876/ “That is the NFL today. Rookies now have expectations, because they can meet them. There is no sophomore slump. This is the year you take it to the next level, because that is what you are supposed to do.” This article from NFLMocks in 2017 also debunks the myth of the sophomore slump https://nflmocks.com/2017/07/21/nfl-quarterback-sophomore-slump-fact-fiction/ "Unless there’s a change in physical health or the team around a player, there’s little chance a dramatic decline will occur between years one and two." I think there are several solid reasons to believe that Allen avoids the "Sophomore Slump" this year. Consider the fact that at least seven of the ten players stepping onto the field with Allen this year should be a clear upgrade over last year's supporting cast. I don't think you can point to another team that has upgraded the overall offense between years one and two for a QB as much as the Bills have for Allen this off season. We all saw how much that six week break midseason helped Allen improve his game. I think Allen will continue to improve with an entire off season of study and a full training camp as the starting QB playing with the first team offense. He will know the offense inside out and feel more comfortable under center. Couple all that with our team friendly schedule this season and I think Allen has a great shot at a break out season.

My son and I will be there so we won’t be bored. I don’t think we will be selecting at 9. The question is are we trading up or down? I just don’t see Beane sitting there waiting to see what falls to him. That just doesn’t seem to be his style, he is more proactive. I think he will either identify his guy(s) and move up to grab him, or if his guy(s) are already gone, trade back and stock pile picks, maybe 2020 picks, or use the extra picks from moving back to jump right back up into the 1st round for a second player.

A quick run through the schedule and it looks like the only time we play a team coming off a rest is when we play the Redskins at home in Week 9. The Skins play the Thursday night game the week before. Other than that, we don't play a single team this season coming off their bye week. Gotta like that!

You just can teach the kind of athleticism that Edmunds has, and he still hasn't even grown into his body yet. It's easy to forget how young he is, the kid can't even buy a beer yet. We all get better with experience. I'm a lot better at my craft 23 years down the road compared to when I walked in for my first shift. McDermott/Beane seem to have a good eye for defensive talent and they though enough of Edmunds to trade back up into the 1st round to grab him. I think Edmunds is going to be special.

Just look at the Rams the last three years. Look at Gurley and Goff under Jeff Fisher. Now look at them under Sean McVay. Circumstances matter. A lot.

Agree with that 100%. I would have much rather had Ngata than Whitner. No argument from me on that. Our franchise's draft history has been more miss than hit for a long time. That's not a recipe for a successful team.

Hey Bill, I'd respectfully disagree with one of your points. You use the example of the Bills passing on Ngata and selecting Whitner instead. I would contend that Ngata might not have had the career he had if he started in Buffalo. And this is not just about Ngata specifically, but about any football player's success or failure in the league. There are so many variables that go into having a great career in this league, you just can't make a statement that Ngata would have been the same player in Buffalo. There is a lot of luck involved and a million variables that determine who has a Hall of Fame career and who doesn't. Who is on the roster at your position ahead of you? What scheme does the offense / defense run? Does it play to your strengths? Is your position coach fantastic or a dufus? Does the position coach like you? Is the team horrid with no supporting talent and you get double teamed and dominated every snap? Does a new coaching regime come in your second year and purge the roster of all the previous regimes's players? Do you get injured in training camp? Does your team draft another player at your position who outplays you or bring in a free agent? Do you get caught up in locker room politics or feel you're being treated unfairly by the coaches and become disillusioned and lose your desire to play? Etc, etc, etc... It's the same flawed thinking that leads people to say if we hadn't missed that field goal on the opening drive, we wouldn't have lost the game 21-20, as if the entire game wouldn't have been different from that point on after that successful field goal kick. There are way too many variables to make a simple apples to apples comparison about player's careers. It's more like an apples to toaster oven comparison. No one knows what would have happened if Ngata, just as an example, would have come to the Bills instead of the Ravens. To state that he would have had the same career is simply not supportable.

Grab Hockenson at #9 if he's still on the board. Hockenson has just as much potential to put up WR1 numbers as Metcalf does, but can also buttress the O-line, keep Allen upright, and facilitate the running game. Those are things that Metcalf can't do.

Agree with both of your posts. Some of the free agents will probably not make the final 53 and some of the players I included in the roster above won't make it either. The great thing, and the main point of my post, is that we are going to be cutting good players from the 53 man roster because we will have better players to replace them. If / when someone goes down with an injury this year it should not be a huge drop off in production because we will have quality depth behind them. I think this is going to end up being a very strong roster on opening day.

Yep, he should be on the list. I'll jump back in and add him to the roster. Now we are down to five openings left. Thanks.

I took the liberty of putting on my GM hat and went through the current roster and removed most of the back up players. The list below has 48 players on it. That leaves us room for five more players without having to cut a player listed below to stay at 53. It looks like a solid roster that should only get better after the draft. Hopefully we will be able to add at least two immediate starters in the draft. There are not too many players below who are an easy cut. It's not a bad problem to have. We are no longer looking to fill gaping holes in the roster, we are looking to strengthen already solid positions. I think we need one more TE, we went into the season last year with four on the roster. We could use some help at DE and LB. DT also has some room to grow. Do we draft a RB? It will be interesting to see which moves McBeane makes over the next two weeks. Offense / Special Teams; Free agents in bold 26 Total Josh Allen John Brown Matt Barkley Cole Beasley Derek Anderson Andre Roberts Zay Jones LeSean McCoy Robert Foster Frank Gore Duke Williams Senorise Perry Tyler Kroft Stephen Hauschka Jake Fisher Corey Bojorquez Jason Croom Reid Fergason Dion Dawkins Wyatt Teller Mitch Morse Spencer Long Ty Nsekhe Jon Feliciano LaAdrian Waddle Quinton Spain Defense; Free agents in Bold 22 Total Tre'Davious White Matt Milano Taron Johnson Tremaine Edmunds Levi Wallace Lorenzo Alexander Kevin Johnson Julian Stanford E.J. Gaines Trent Murphy Jordan Poyer Harrison Phillips Siran Neal Star Latulelei Micah hyde Jerry Hughes Rafael Bush Shaq Lawson Eli Harold Eddie Yarborough Mo Alexander Jordan Phillips

Great post Shaw. I couldn't agree more. It seems like the entire Bills organization is undergoing a renaissance. This franchise has been wandering in the desert for twenty years. I think it is finally our turn again. Wouldn't it be something for both the Bills and the Browns to make the playoffs this year? A little bit of redemption for two fans bases who have stayed loyal, weathered the dark days, paid their dues, and stoically endured all of the snide jokes and humiliation. This city and it's fans deserve a Super Bowl. I think we are entering our window of opportunity to contend for one.

I did, Thanks! He's kinda a big deal too... I'll jump back into the post and edit it.

Mitch Morse, C, Kansas City Ty Nsekhe, OT, Washington Cole Beasley, WR, Dallas Jon Feliciano, OG, Oakland Kevin Johnson, CB, Houston Frank Gore, RB, Miami Senorise Perry, RB, Miami Andre Roberts, WR/Return, N.Y. Jets Spencer Long, OG/C, N.Y. Jets Tyler Kroft, TE, Cincy Jake Fisher, TE, Cincy Eli Harold, DE, Detroit John Brown, WR, Baltimore E.J. Gaines, CB, Cleveland Mo Alexander, S, Seattle LaAdrian Waddle, OT, New England Quinton Spain, OG, Tennessee Duke Williams, WR, The Great White North (Is he technically a free agent signing?) Christian Wade, Rugby/ RB? England (I'm not even counting him in the numbers, but he would be #19 if I did) 18 Free agents. That is nuts. That is a third of the entire 53 man roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ansah in the next week or so if he passes his medical added to the list, and there are rumors out there about Frank Clark in Seattle too. Ansah would be a big signing, Clark would be seismic. Ten Observations; Offense 14 players (including 2 special teamers, Roberts WR and Perry RB) Defense 4 players 1.) It's easy to see where the emphasis was this off season in free agency. I was hoping Beane would be able to upgrade two O-line positions in free agency before the draft and it looks like he has upgraded four. The O-line was clearly the biggest weakness on this team last year. I think it means we are not going to have to use a high draft pick on an O-lineman this year. I was hoping for an OT in the 1st, but not anymore. The presence of Morse will be huge. I think he has all the intangibles of Eric Wood, and is probably a better Center. The lack of an effective center last year was crippling to the entire unit. We made Morse the highest paid Center in the league and I think it was worth every penny. It was a weakness that absolutely had to be addressed, if we paid a premium to get him here, so be it. I think Nsekhe is our starting LT this year. Can't wait to see all the camp battles on that O-line. 2.) I think of all the players on the list, the one who might have gone a bit below the radar in terms of his importance, is Andre Roberts from the Jets. Our return game last season was abysmal. I would be willing to bet that there will be at least one game this season where his returns will mean the difference between a win and a loss for this team. How much is an extra win worth in this league? The difference between 9-7 and 10-6? It's huge. Great signing by Beane that gets no love from the media pundits but I think it will be a difference maker. 3.) Adding Beasley and Brown will hopefully bring some much needed veteran leadership into the receiver's room. They should elevate the play of the other receivers already on the team. Duke Williams is a big red zone target (Basically a Kelvin Benjamin who gives a sh*t and can catch the ball) and I hope he will end up being a real diamond in the rough. The Duke might end up being Beane's best sneaky, looking under every rock, acquisition this off season. 4.) I brought this point up in a thread I started a few weeks ago, with 18 new free agent players we are not going to be able to bring in 10 draft picks who have any sort of chance to make this roster, even if we cut all of the dead wood from last year's roster. There are only 53 players to be carried into the regular season. Like many here, I can see Beane bundling picks to move up in the draft repeatedly. I can also see him trying to turn 2019 draft picks into 2020 picks. 5.) This is related to the #4 above, I think this year's draft is going to be crazy. I can see us climbing up and down that draft board like a spider monkey jacked up on Mountain Dew. I think Beane will be wheeling and dealing like a riverboat gambler. Don't think it is safe to go to the bathroom at any point during the draft just because the Bills aren't on the clock or you are going to miss something. God only knows where we are going to end up selecting players this year. This draft is going to be fun! 6.) Great coaching is going to be critical this season. I think it is reasonable to assume that after free agency, draft picks, and the one or two training camp surprises, we might be going into the season this year with 50% of the roster being comprised of first year Bills. McDermott and the coaches are going to have a big job continuing the tough but disciplined, team first culture they have been cultivating over the last couple of seasons. McDermott mentioned this point at the Owner's Meetings. Bringing in more capable players is only part of the process, getting them to buy into the teams philosophy and gel as a cohesive unit is another thing all together. This is going to be McDermott's toughest coaching job yet. I hope he is up to it. 7.) There are free agents from 14 different teams on this list. They are going to report for off season workouts this coming Monday. They are all going to walk into our brand new, state or the art, best in the league work out facilities and you can bet your ass they will be snap chatting photos of the facilities back to all of their buddies on their old teams and talking smack about how nice it is here in Buffalo. It's not just the training facilities either. The meeting rooms, the cafeterias, everything about the One Bills Drive facility that impacts the player's lives on a daily basis has been updated and is state of the art. There are going to be a lot of people in this league looking at Buffalo differently after next week. Money very well spent by the Pegulas. Each of these players will become an ambassador for the Bills around the league. 8.) Watching Antonio Brown throw JuJu under the bus for no reason this week makes me glad that AB did not end up on this team. I was excited when the rumors broke and I thought it would be incredible to get him to Buffalo. No one can dispute the man's ability, the guy is a baller, but he sure looks like a team cancer. I think we dodged a bullet on that one. 9.) Beane signed these players to team friendly contracts and didn't mortgage the team's future to do it. We should have the cap space next year to extend the players signed to short contracts who play hard this season. We should be able to build a real core of players on this team and not watch our talented players walk out the door to other teams. 10.) Lastly, this free agency surpassed any expectations that I had going into it. It is too early to see how these additions will pan out for the Bills, but I don't think you can objectively look at these signings and not be optimistic that Beane has upgraded the quality of our starters and added real depth to our roster. I am excited to see what Allen does this season with a real supporting cast. They got our franchise QB last year and this year they are building a team around him.

She looks like a dark haired Cersei Lannister in that photo. Winter is Coming!!!

If he wasn't the only player on the field with game he might not have to play Hero Ball so much. When the MLB is in the backfield one second after the ball is snapped, your receivers can't get a release and are dancing with the CB at the line of scrimmage or unable to get any separation down field, and the whole play is blown up before it even has a chance to develop, that is a recipe for Hero Ball. This year with a solid O-line and some real skill position players on the field to help him, hopefully it won't all be on Allen to make things happen, i.e. Hero Ball. Let's be real here, Josh Allen was the entire offense last year. As a rookie. If Allen didn't do it, it didn't happen.

I know we live in an instant gratification society, but do you think it's possible to give Edmunds at least a year to figure things out? What were you doing when you were his age? For God's sake the kid can't even buy a beer yet.

I disagree. Completely. Someone who brings WR1 offensive production and is an elite blocker bolstering the O-line and helping in the running game sounds like a value pick to me. He is a consensus top 10 pick in this draft. Is there some reason that you believe the consensus is wrong about him? This may all be moot anyways because there is a strong chance his is already gone by pick 9.

My son and I will be at the draft this year representing the Bills Mafia. We are only two hours from Nashville. We absolutely love Nashville. My wife and I spend a lot of weekends there. It’s a great town even when there isn’t an NFL draft. Can’t wait for the 25th!

Good stuff. The reason I continue to bang the drum for TEs is that some people on this board keep making the argument that drafting a TE at 9, even a top flight prospect like Hockenson, is simply not a wise use of that draft capital. They don’t value the position. I think that is a fundamentally flawed position. On nearly every mock draft I see, Hockenson is the first non-QB offensive skill player off the board. He is creeping up the board as time goes by. The mock you linked to has him gone at 8 to the Lions. I’m seeing more mocks with him going at 7 to the Jags. Your larger point that the NFL has become a passing league and that TEs have been feasting just like the WRs have because he ball is simply being thrown more is absolutely correct. What I think is new in football over just the past few years is that offensive coordinators are feeling comfortable building their entire offense around the TE position now. That is a big change in philosophy. You don’t need a WR1 on your teem if you have a TE like Ertz who can put up 116 catches for 1136 yards and 8 TDs in a season. In drafting Hockenson you are basically drafting a WR1 who’s also a fantastic blocker who will help keep your QB upright and help open up the running game. That to me seems to be an incredible amount of value for one draft pick. When the Bills entered this off season the two biggest weaknesses were the O-line and the WR corps. While Beane addressd them aggressively in FA, I don’t think anyone would contend we’re as strong in either of those units as we can be. Drafting Hockenson helps strengthen both of those units. I think if Hock is on the board at 9 he is the highest value player, the BPA, even over Oliver. That is even before you factor in that Allen still doesn’t have a real go-to guy on the offense to help him out. When you throw that consideration in, I think Hock at 9 becomes a no brainer.

I'm not projecting anything onto Hockenson. He is the best TE in a great TE class. He is a consensus top 10 draft pick for a reason and not just because Inigo Montoya says he is. (Though Inigo's opinion should carry substantially more weight than it does ? ) You say I'm seeing something about Hockenson that isn't there. I'd like to know what you believe that is. I think my reasoning for drafting him is clearly stated above. I don't think I'm reaching for anything. I think they are valid reasons. If you don't agree with one of those points I'd be happy to talk about it, maybe you would convince me I'm wrong. I have no problem changing my mind when someone convinces me I'm off base. Honestly, I don't know why a GM would draft any player with the #9 overall pick in the draft if he did not see that player becoming an All Pro player. No one drafts a player at 9 hoping they will be a solid player, they expect them to be an elite player. That's why they get drafted in the top ten. I think Hockenson can become an All Pro TE. Why do you think he couldn't? Have you seen a flaw in his game that has been overlooked? Sure we could win a Super Bowl with a historically good defense and a average QB, but that is certainly not the norm anymore. I think we are more likely to win the Super Bowl if we have a true franchise QB and a decent defense. To that end, as this team is built right now, we need to shore up the offense. That means putting an O-line in front of Allen and getting him some weapons. There is a reason that Hockenson is seen as a top ten prospect, it is because it is believed he has the tools to become an elite TE in this league. We all watched what Gronk did for years. lets look at the other three top TE in the league last season. George Kittle San Fran; 88 rec, 1,377 yards, 5 TD Zach Ertz Philly; 116 rec, 1163 yards, 8 TD Travis Kelce Chiefs; 103 rec, 1336 yards, 10 TD I think that kind of production will help Josh Allen's development and this offense become legit. Hockenson is the best blocking TE in the draft too. We are basically getting another O-lineman who can protect Allen and open up the running game at the point of attack, further helping Allen. I think T.J. Hockenson is the player in this draft most likely to help Josh Allen's game. Maybe the Bills draft Oliver at 9. I would be ok with that. If they trade up and take one of the EDGE guys I'd be ok with that too. If they draft an offensive player, I want it to be Hockenson for all the reasons I've stated. I think he has more value than DK Metcalf or any other TE/RB/WR in this year's draft.