Inigo Montoya

It you get into Tonawanda I'd recommend a Sahlen's hot dog at Ted's (burgers are great too) and then some frozen custard at Andersons just down the street. It's a great inexpensive lunch. Both are on Sheridan Dr. Duffs for wings, Bocces for pizza. Wegmans is a grocery store chain in WNY and if you see one you should drop in. I know, I know, a grocery store? If you need to get any food or drinks for the room at night and you see a Wegmans, take a minute and drop in and check it out. Hope you have a great trip!

Just got six tickets for MNF in Nashville. I'll be taking a sabbatical from TBD as I recover from my kidney "donation" to help pay for the evening. 😳

Thanks for taking the time out of your day to post those cap numbers here for us to look at and kick around. This is a tough time of the year for football fans, not much going on to talk about. Appreciate the thread. 🍻

He was a good signing for the Colts. At this point in time, after the bulk of free agency and the Draft, Fisher was probably the best option out there for them. Now we just have to see if he has had enough time to recover from his injury and regain his form. He's a solid NFL tackle when he's healthy. I'm imagine getting to line up next to Quenton Nelson on every snap will help a bit too...

I think this is the biggest reason Jones is going to succeed in New England. Mac Jones is used to hard nosed coaching under Saban and nothing is going to change in New England. Jones isn't going to wilt or pull a Wentz and start to sulk when Belichick routinely puts a boot in his azz in practice in front of the team to make him better. And just like when Brady took the abuse from Bill for years, it gives Bill license to treat everyone else that way too. If the QB is going to take it without complaint, everyone else better just shut their mouth and fall in line too... It was one of the reasons Brady excelled in New England because he was that rare QB to become an elite level player and still be willing to accept that hard coaching. Look at Rodgers pouting right now just because his team didn't draft the people he wanted. Imagine a young Rodgers in New England getting nuked in every practice in front of the whole team. He wouldn't have excelled with Bill, he'd have been out of the league in 5 years. It's a fun parlor game to debate Tom vs Bill, but the truth of the matter is that they were perfect together, and better together than either would have been without the other. A coach who could craft a great QB with hard nosed coaching, and a QB with the ability to be great who could accept that style of coaching. I see that same quality in Mac Jones. I think he is going to be really good in New England.

Hey Rigotz, Just a few links / articles to check out on Onwenu who replaced Thuney when Thuney slided to center last year. Admittedly, I didn't hear a lot about him last year but this off season I have been looking at the Pats, Jets, and Phins a bit closer and Onwenu was a steal in the 6th round for the Pats last year. I think Onwenu's play was one reason they felt comfortable letting Thuney move on. I think you make a valid point, losing a lineman like Thuney can be a challenge for any team, but it looks like they already have someone on the roster to help mitigate that loss on a cheap 6th round rookie contract. That will help take some of the sting out of it. https://www.patspulpit.com/2021/1/8/22220216/patriots-michael-onwenu-pro-football-focus-2020-all-rookie-team https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/michael-onwenu/27357 https://www.si.com/nfl/patriots/news/onwenu-biggest-surprise-2020-draft-class https://chowderandchampions.com/2020/10/09/new-england-patriots-michael-onwenu-dominating-best-rookie/ https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/lists/projecting-the-patriots-starters-on-offense-for-2021/ 🍻

You do have a point there..... 😉

Definitely a fair point NoSaint. I think that looking at the top five from last season, Baltimore, New England, Tennessee, and Cleveland really were run first offenses and weren't just salting away games with the lead in hand. Admittedly I don't watch a lot of NFC football to know how the Saints offense looked week to week.

Bill Belichick's coaching hallmark has always been game planning to identify an opponents' weakness and adjusting his offensive or defensive scheme week to week to exploit those weaknesses. As offenses have transitioned to pass first philosophies across the league, defenses have begun to adapt by looking for defenders geared more towards stopping the pass. LBs who have the mobility to cover in the flat seem to be overtaking the prototypical LBs of years past who were run stuffing thumpers. I think Bill is going against the grain and is returning to smash mouth football and trying to build an offense that will take advantage of defenses built to stop the pass. He doesn't have an elite QB on his roster and he knows he isn't going to win a shootout without Tom Brady under center. I think he knows that low scoring games are going to give his team as its currently constituted the best chance to win. He wants to run the ball, chew clock, win time of possession, get turnovers on defense, and win games like they did 20 years ago. He wants to win games 21-17. The loss of Brady forced him to embrace this run first philosophy. Last season the Patriots were second in the NFL in percentage of running plays at 51.28%. That strategy can be successful, four of the top five teams in running percentage made the playoffs last year. 1. Baltimore 55.04% 2. New England 51.28% 3. Tennessee 50.28% 4. Cleveland 47.48% 5. New Orleans 46.95% Bill always seems to have a great O-Line (one of the reasons Brady is still playing at age 64) and last year was no different. According to PFF the Pats had the 4th ranked O-Line last year and Bill has tried to bolster the O-line even more heading into this season. I linked below to a recent article about the Pats' 2021 O-line and the PFF O-line rankings from last year. They will have Wynn and Andrews back for 2021 and they traded for Trent Brown who is a monster during the off season. As it stands now, the starting O-line in New England is projected to be; LT: Isaiah Wynn LG: Michael Onwenu Center: David Andrews RG: Shaq Mason RT: Trent Brown https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/03/19/andrews-brown-onwenu-wynn-patriots-offensive-line-depth-karras-mason-nfl-free-agency-cam-newton-belichick/ https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2020-offensive-line-rankings The O-Line will also be augmented by frequent two TE sets that put more beef on the line and enable the running game. I expect the majority of their offensive snaps come out of two TE sets this season with their free agent signings of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. The Pats used their 4th round pick to add RB Rhamondre Stevenson that Mike Reiss at ESPN described as "A big, physical back whose style sparks thoughts of LeGarrette Blount, the 5-foot-11, 227-pound Stevenson is an intimidating runner." Stevenson will be joining James White their fantastic receiving back and Damien Harris who had an injury plagued but solid season, ending the season ranked 11th among RBs with an average of 69 yards a game. There is talk that Stevenson will allow the Pats to move on from Sony Michel who has had trouble staying healthy. They also have a young back in J.J. Taylor who was injured most of last season who will be back and add depth. On the whole, it's not a very scary stable of RBs. I think there is a widely held expectation that the Pats will add a veteran RB sometime this off season as teams cut RBs due to cap and roster concerns. I was surprised Kerryon Johnson didn't end up in New England. I'd be curious to know if they made a run at him. Cam is a obviously a solid running QB and adds a real element to their run game. Even if Cam gives way to Mac Jones at some point in the season, Jones is likely going to be given game plans like Bill gave the young Tom Brady, more of a game control passing strategy, making short high percentage passes just often enough to keep defenses honest and stop them from stacking the box. It sounds like that type of offense would play to Jones' strength, whose two main attributes are said to be his accuracy and his ability to read a defense at the line of scrimmage and find the weak spot and put the ball there. The two big questions are how successful can this run first strategy be across a 17 game season in today's NFL for New England? Can they win enough games this way to challenge for the AFCE title and make a deep playoff run? The other question as Bills' fans is, how will our defense stack up against this run first philosophy? Run defense has been a weakness at times for McDermott and Frazier's defenses. Bill knows the best way to beat QBs like Mahomes and Allen is to keep them sitting on the bench. It will be interesting to see how Belichick's run first gambit plays out this year.

When Ed Oliver is violating your new quarterback guy Ricky Schroder on another third and long, don't get too upset. Just remember that there's a part of Ricky that likes it.

I did! 😉 And one that had the Browns in 4th, right behind us. And one that had the Browns in 5th, two spots behind us. And four out of the seven rankings didn't have the Browns in the top five at all. I though it was a pretty comprehensive and fair sampling of the major sport sites. 🍻

One of those rankings has the Browns ahead, and many of those who don't have the Bills and Browns within just a spot or two of each other in the rankings, which I think is perfectly reasonable. TBD blew up like I said the Jets were better than the Bills. The Browns finished last season as the 5th or 6th best team, we finished as the 3rd or 4th best team. The possibility that the Browns may have caught up to the Bills is a perfectly reasonable opinion that reasonable people could reasonably differ on. We'll all see in a few months. I hope I'm wrong. 🍻

It was me..... 😁

Thought I'd collect a sample of the preseason power rankings and post them here together to look at. I added the links so you could read the reasoning behind their rankings. Bills are a near consensus 3rd seed with only one outlet putting them in 4th. As a long suffering Bills' fan, it's crazy to look at these preseason power rankings and not automatically scroll down to the middle of the article to find where the Bills are ranked somewhere in the 16-26 range. The Bills are now an elite team. It's been a long time coming. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/columnist/nate-davis/2021/05/05/nfl-power-rankings-draft-packers-aaron-rodgers-jaguars-buccaneers/4952639001/ 1. Bucs 2. Chiefs 3. Browns 4. Bills 5. Ravens https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/05/05/nfl-power-rankings-2021-draft-49ers-saints-chiefs-cowboys 1. Chiefs 2. Bucs 3. Bills 4. Rams 5. Ravens https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-power-rankings-browns-on-the-rise-after-2021-nfl-draft-bucs-and-chiefs-remain-on-top/ 1. Bucs 2. Chiefs 3. Bills 4. Packers 5. Browns https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-power-rankings-bears-49ers-on-the-rise-after-2021-draft 1. Bucs 2. Chiefs 3. Bills 4. Packers 5. Ravens https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/post-2021-nfl-draft-power-rankings-standings-all-32-teams 1. Bucs 2.Chiefs 3. Bills 4. Ravens 5. Rams https://www.thelines.com/betting/nfl/power-rankings/ 1. Bucs 2. Chiefs 3. Bills 4. Rams 5. Ravens https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nfl/news/nfl-power-rankings-2021-browns-49ers-seahawks-raiders/4c9q7echav7x19jqosghumup0 1. Bucs 2. Chiefs 3. Bills 4. Browns 5. 49ers

I think Stefanski has Baker doing exactly what Baker should be doing, limiting turnovers, making high percentage throws when needed, and turning around and giving the ball to Chubb and Hunt to run. With Stefanski calling the shots the Browns have become a running team with elite RBs behind a great O-Line. Baker doesn't have to win games with his arm, he just needs to play smart football and throw enough passes to his talented WR and TE corps to keep defenses from stacking the box to stuff the run. The formula worked well last year to the tune of 11 wins and a playoff win. In Buffalo the offense begins and ends with Josh Allen. He is expected to go out and sling the rock and win games on his arm and with his legs. Last year he showed that he was up to the challenge with Diggs and his WRs having career years. We won 13 games last season using that formula. If you look at who the Browns' defense has coming back from injury into the lineup this year, the defensive free agents the Browns brought in, an the draft picks the Browns made, I think the Browns defense will be better on all three levels this season. The Browns on paper look to have one of the most talented defenses in the league heading into this season. Time will tell how that talent shows itself on the field. I think the Browns are going to be dangerous this year with an elite running game, a QB who is capable of running a ball control offense at a high level, and now what will likely be a very strong defense. I think the sum of those parts for Cleveland pushes them ahead of the Bills this season despite the Bills having Josh Allen who has become an elite QB. That was the premise of the OP. Based on the responses to the OP it looks like this board thinks I'm wrong by a 2/1 margin on that. I hope I'm wrong. I want to see the Bills win a Lombardi at least once in my life and this year could be their best chance to do it. We'll see how things play out in a few months.

I think Rousseau and Boogie will both get some play from the start too. Epenesa didn't get on the field initially last season but I think a big part of that was the lack of a preseason for him to learn his role. This year's camp and preseason may not be completely back to normal, but they should be much better than last years. I'm excited to see what Boogie and Oliver can do lined up on either side of Star this season. If we can get push up the middle that should make the entire defense better.

That's not really my point and it may be my fault for not expressing my thoughts clearly enough. The Bills are not disproportionately affected money wise, every team is down the same amount of cap dollars, my point is the the timing of this salary cap hit is much worse for the Bills than it is for most other teams in the league. I believe that we are a piece or two on defense away from making a legitimate Super Bowl run. That missing $25 million in Beane's pocket to spend on those free agent pieces may be the difference between winning a Lombardi this year or coming in 2nd or 3rd again. By comparison, the Jets are not unduly affected by having $25 million less this year. They are in a rebuild and they can add a free agent this year or next year and it's not going to really effect them much in the big picture. Getting a key free agent next year won't help the Bills pushing for a championship this year. It's a timing issue. 🍻

I don't gamble.

Are 31 other GMs legitimately one or two pieces away from a Super Bowl campaign this year?

My point is that if Beane had another $25 million in cap space in his pocket he wouldn't have to mortgage the future, he could have gone out into the free agent market and landed some defensive difference makers with the money in hand. We were going to be in a cap situation to do just that before COVID knocked $25 million off the cap.

There's a regular poster on TBD who won $4K two years ago betting the over when Vegas said the Over/Under for Bills' wins that year was 6. The Bills won 10. 🍻

The leader in the Most Ridiculous Thread category? I will wear it as a Badge of Honor! You do realize my "ridiculous" opinion is that I think the Browns have edged the Bills, and the Browns are now #2 in the AFC and the Bills are #3. That the Browns have added enough to their defensive roster this off season to mitigate the talent difference between Allen and Mayfield. Sure, I did state why I felt that way in a measured manner and didn't just throw that opinion out there without any explanation, but still, to say that the Cleveland Browns could have gotten better than the Bills on TBD....? The gall! The nerve! The audacity! The horror! What the hell did I eat for breakfast yesterday??? People can launch all the vomiting emojis they want. I stand by my OP. 🙂

Every team in the NFL has been effected by the reduced salary cap brought on by the pandemic, but the timing of the cap cuts have clearly effected some teams more than others, and I think it's fair to say that the Bills were definitely one of the teams most effected. The salary cap this year was projected to be $210 million before COVID. It ended up at $185 million, a massive $25 million cap hit. The Bills are now in their Super Bowl window and have a roster that is talented and deep, with their QB still on his rookie contract, but that I think is missing just a piece or two on defense to put them over the top. Losing $25 million is cap space this year didn't allow Beane to go out and aggressively go after players like Shaquill Barrett, Adoree' Jackson, William Jackson, Leonard Williams, or Carl Lawson. Any of these players could have been difference makers on the defensive side of the ball and elevated that unit. It's frustrating to finally be one of those teams that is "just a piece or two away" and to have the ability to go out and add those pieces yanked out from underneath them by a twist of fate beyond anyone's expectations or control. I imagine it's even more frustrating for Beane who has worked hard to craft solid, cap friendly contracts that would put the Bills in a great position this year to go out and add those key pieces in free agency. Imagine re-signing our own free agents this season like we did, but also bringing in Carl Lawson or Shaquil Barrett opposite Jerry Hughes and Adoree' Jackson across from Tre White? If COVID had not hit that could have been possible. As it was, Beane did a great job just keeping the free agent talent that we had. Beane has said that he is always thinking about long term success / stability, but I have to believe that he would have evaluated the situation the Bills are in right now and been aggressive in free agency. Signing a difference maker or two on defense this year wouldn't have put the Bills in cap hell over the long term either with the cap expected to increase greatly over the next 5 years. Beane could have afforded to bring those players in without busting the cap going forward. It's so Billsy that we are stuck In a situation beyond anyone's control that didn't allow Beane to go out and add that missing piece or two that could help finally bring a Lombardi home to Buffalo this year. Can the Bills still win it all? Absolutely, and I think they have a great shot to do so with the roster as it stands, but it sure would have be nice to have an elite EDGE or CB2, or both, added to this defense to help make that push.

Just looked back at my OP and it has every face emoji except for the orange angry face guy. That has to be some kind of record for a single post. I knew people wouldn't like my opinion but I had no idea it was going to blow up the message board. Inconceivable! Cheers TBD 🍻

I am now withdrawing from the field of battle. I appreciate the reasoned responses from many. I stand by my OP. Wouldn't the world be boring if we all thought the same way? 🍻