Inigo Montoya

Coming into last season the Bills hadn't won the AFCE since 1995. That didn't stop them from winning it last year. The Steelers finished 12-4, the Browns and Ravens both finished 11-5. While the Brown did finish 3rd last year, that's a bit deceptive taken out of context. They were one game behind Pittsburgh and had the same record as the Ravens. They are right there in the AFCN and I think they will win the division this year. If my thread has caused you some emotional distress Jauronimo, my sincere apologies, sir.

Kpassagnon signed a two year contract with the Saints worth $4.5 million. Wilson went to the Jags on a one year contract worth $2 million Okafor played 26% of the snaps last year, not 40-50%, and spent big chunks of 2019 and 2020 on IR. Maybe Andy is looking for more durability. Breeland is still a free agent two months into free agency in a position of high demand. I think that says something about Breeland. Respectfully Hap, I don't think any of these players are key loses to the Chiefs and needed to be pointed out in the OP. If you feel that my omitting these four players from the KC side of the equation undermines my entire position, we will just have to agree to disagree on that one. 🍻

I expected nothing but pushback on my opinion that I knew would be very unpopular here. I've been contributing to this forum for years. I know exactly how any post that says anything critical of the Bills goes over on TBD. Take two minutes, hit my profile, and read my posts. I'm as big of a Bills' fan as anyone here, but I also try to be objective about things. There must be twenty posts on this thread that say as long as we have Allen the Bills are better. The position you state that the talent on the Browns roster in total is not enough to overcome the difference between Allen and Baker is a reasonable position to hold and is the crux of this entire thread. I don't agree with that position, but I understand how someone could hold that position. I explained in the OP why I believe what I believe. Now if people want to convince me I'm wrong with a reasoned argument, not simply "my quarterback can beat up your quarterback" or starting in with the crystal ball and lotto numbers BS, please have at it.

Who is saying "the Browns can NEVER be better than the Bills because they have Josh Allen?" Really? Have you read this thread???? Every third post here is saying it. It's a widely held opinion here and it's ridiculous.

Your arguments have convinced me. The Browns can never be better than the Bills because we have Josh Allen and they have Baker Mayfield. Nothing else matters. I'm not even sure why the other 52 guys are on the roster to be honest. Now please excuse me while I get back to my crystal ball and lotto numbers.

Nope. I'm saying that it's not just about the QB. I think we would all agree that Mahomes and Rodgers are better than Brady right now. I think most of us would agree that Allen is better than Brady. Having said that, Brady still won the Super Bowl last year because the team that wins the Super Bowl isn't always the team with the best QB. Saying that the Browns can never be better than the Bills because we have Josh Allen and they have Baker Mayfield is a ridiculous opinion that simply can not be supported. Football is a team sport. Is the QB the most important player on the team? Absolutely. Is having the best QB the only way to win in this league? Of course not.

The Packers have Rodgers and lost to a team with a strong running game, strong defense, and a game manager QB in the Championship game. The Chiefs have Mahomes and lost to a team with a strong running game , strong defense, and a game manager QB in the Super Bowl. I'm sorry, but it's not just about the QB.

We barely beat the Colts and the Ravens in the playoffs last year, but we still beat them. The Browns are more talented top to bottom than the Bengals are (Let's see how Burrow comes back after this injury). I'm a big Burrow fan and think he can be the real deal and way better than Mayfield but worry he is going to get Darnold-ed by Cincy. Passing on Sewell to draft a WR is a typical Jets/Cincy kind of move when the Bengals O-line is atrocious. How putting a solid O-line in front of Burrow wasn't priority #1 , #2, #3 this off season for Cincy is beyond me...

The Browns went 11-5 last year and made it to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Does that qualify as winning? The Bills have a better QB, Allen is elite and can win a game on his own when he has to. The Bills have a better WR corps, and better secondary. The Brown have a better O-line (the best in football last year), a better D-Line with Miles Garrett, an elite running game with Chubb and Hunt, and a better TE room. The Browns also have a new head coach who knows what he is doing and has revamped the offense to get the best out of Baker Mayfield who has become a capable game manger on a run first team. I don't think there is as much space between these two teams as you think there is. Cincinnati isn't close to being in the conversation yet. The Browns backups beat the Steelers late in the season and as long as the Steelers still have Roethlisberger who has hit the wall and is declining rapidly, the Browns will continue to pull away from Pittsburgh. The Brown lost both games to the Ravens and that is where the fight is going to be to win the division. I think the league is starting to catch up with Lamar Jackson though and the Ravens are going to have a tougher time going forward. I think it likely the Browns split with the Ravens and sweep Pittsburgh and Cincy and go 5-1 in their division next year.

I could have added some more responses from above as well, but if your only argument is that Josh Allen is better than Baker Mayfield as the reason the Bills are better than the Browns, I think that is flawed reasoning. It's not just about the QB. Is Mahomes better than Brady? I guess the Chiefs must have won the Super Bowl last year then. The QB is the most important piece of the puzzle, but not the whole puzzle. Football is still a team sport. How many Super Bowls does reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers have? Five...Six? I'm as big a homer as anyone on this board and I knew this wouldn't be a popular opinion here. I stand by it though. People are sleeping on the Browns just like people were sleeping on the Bills based on how bad they were for years and years. The Browns have difference makers at every position. Baker Mayfied isn't as good a QB as Allen, not even close, but Baker doesn't have to be for the Browns to win. If Mayfield continues to play ball control offense with that running game and an improved defense, they Browns are legit.

The Chiefs entered the off season after getting man handled in the Super Bowl because their O-line had fallen apart. They blew up their O-line and decided to rebuild. On paper at least, they look to have improved the line. They signed Joe Thuney to a 5 year $80 million contract and he will slide into the left guard position. They then signed Kyle Long to a one year deal to step into the right guard position. They resigned Mike Remmers to play right tackle and then traded with the Ravens for Orlando Brown to step in as their left tackle. They signed Austin Blythe from the Rams to play center, and then drafted the 2nd ranked center, Creed Humphrey, to push Blythe and develop into their future center. The only free agent they lost of any consequence was Sammy Watkins which should not slow them down much. I think on the whole the O-line is upgraded and they kept the rest of the band together. I don't see any reasonable argument to say the Chiefs shouldn't remain the #1 seed in the AFC heading into the 2021 season. The Browns will leap frog us this season and be the primary threat to the Chiefs. If you look at the playoffs last year, the Browns came within a fumbled football out of the endzone from beating the Chiefs. The Bills by comparison didn't even make a game of it against the Chiefs. The Browns' roster seems to match up better against the Chiefs, and that was before the Browns very impressive off season. The defense was the weak side of the ball last season and the Browns attacked this off season with that in mind. They snagged John Johnson the best free agent safety on the market to address a huge weakness and also added CB Troy Hill who will be an instant upgrade. They brought in Clowney to stack opposite Miles Garrett on the D-line. They then drafted CB Greg Newsome and LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah who should both start this season. The Browns bring back their offense intact and Mayfield will have the benefit of playing in the same offense for the first time in his career. OBJ will also be back this season. The Bills did a great job of resigning their key free agents this year and also upgraded the backup QB position. They brought in Sanders to replace Brown which could be an up grade and added Hollister to the TE room. We all hope that having Star back will have a ripple effect on the D-line and result in better play across the entire line and allow our LB play to improve as well. The entire team will benefit from another year of coaching and scheme stability and hopefully some of our young players like Oliver and Edmunds will take a step forward this year. Overview A lot is made of the Bills retaining their own talent, and I agree that Beane did a great job of maintaining a roster that made it to the AFC Championship game, but the uncomfortable truth is that the Chiefs maintained their roster too AND improved their O-Line. The Browns also avoided any key free agency loses AND improved their defensive secondary and brought in Clowney on the D-line. The Browns and Chiefs will also benefit from another year of coaching and scheme stability just like the Bills. The off season isn't over yet, but the free agency period is winding down and the Draft is over. Baring injuries, any changes to the rosters of the Chiefs, Browns, and Bills before opening weekend will likely just be on the margins before opening weekend. When Andy Reid looks out across the AFC, I think he is probably more worried about what is going on in Cleveland than what is going on in Buffalo. I think the Browns have improved enough this off season to move past us and become the primary threat to the Chiefs this year. At this point I'd rank the AFC; 1. Chiefs 2. Browns 3. Bills

Not my type.

Humphrey or Tremble right here......

The Bills currently have eight defensive ends on the roster; Hughes, Addison, Mike Love, Brian Cox Jr., AJ Epenesa, Darryl Johnson, Efe Obada, and now Greg Rousseau. We parted way with Trent Murphy and Quinton Jefferson. I think we can break these eight down into three groups; Hughes and Addison -- Veteran Production Love and Cox Jr -- Cheap Depth Epenesa, Obada, Johnson, Rousseau -- Lottery Tickets The interesting group here is the Lottery tickets. Efe Obada really intrigues me. He had some great production with limited reps last season and it looks like the arrow is pointing up on him. He only played 39% of the snaps for the Panthers and had 5.5 sacks, 4 TFL, and 15 QB hits. Even more than Epenesa, I'm excited to see what he can do this season. Darryl Johnson is more of the quick twitch / speed edge rusher and he has flashed at times. He sometimes gets up the field too quickly and loses edge containment and that is an issue that he needs to work on. He is the fastest DE on the roster for the Bills. He is also entering "Year Three" and hopefully if things are going to click for him, it will start to happen this year. He only got 21% of the snaps last season in the Bills' DE rotation. With Murphy and Jefferson gone he might get a little bit more run this season. AJ Epenesa was in on 27% of the snaps and had 1 sack and 3 QB hits. He really started to come on as the season progressed and he began to supplant Trent Murphy in the lineup. Hopefully a full NFL off season and his hard earned game experience will allow him to take another step this year. He should join Hughes as the primary edge rushers for the Bills this season. Hughes played on 59% of the snaps last year and I'd expect Epenesa to be a lot closer to that percentage this year. Let's hope the production will follow. Greg Rousseau is the last and probably biggest Lottery Ticket in the group. I'm not going to make any predictions here. He's a player with potential who McDermott, Frazier, and Eric Washington think they can develop. I don't think anyone believes that will happen to a large degree during his rookie campaign. Any production from him this year would definitely be a bonus. I don't expect the Bills will let Hughes walk after this year if he continues to play at his current level. Even just a one year contract to Hughes gives the other DE's an additional year to find their game and step into Hughes' shoes. If any of these four Lottery Tickets can find the next level, the Bills will have an imposing pass rush with Oliver up the middle, Hughes on one end, and the winning Lottery Ticket on the other. McDermott and Frazier are fantastic defensive coaches and I have confidence that they will be able to get the most out of these young DEs.

We honestly don’t know what we have at guard in Ford. He played mostly tackle his rookie year and finally moved to guard year two, which seems like his natural position, and got hurt. I’m not ready to say he’s a weak link on the line yet. There’s no guarantee anyone we draft will be better as a rookie. Rookie RBs can have monster seasons. Less likely for a lineman to do that.

The only position where a rookie can be expected to make a significant contribution their rookie campaign, and the only position that we could upgrade immediately with a rookie is the RB position. If we are trying to win now, we grab Harris or Etienne. If Beane was being truthful about taking a long term, not short term outlook on the draft, we won't use our 1st on a RB.

Thanks for all your work on this stuff, I'm not a college football fan so I appreciate all the info. Are you going to stay up tonight to watch live, or just catch up in the morning?

Beane's 2018 draft was all about dealing for a QB. In 2019 there were just three or four players (Oliver, TJ Hockenson, Josh Allen, Devin Bush) who were real options for the Bills at #9. In 2020 we didn't even have a 1st round pick. This draft is going to be a wild ride with so many possibilities. This is going to be Beane's toughest draft so far. It's an unusual position to be in for the Bills' front office and fans. We're drafting at #30 this year and there are typically less than 30 players with a "1st round grade" on them in any given NFL draft. Practically speaking, this means that Brandon Beane is sitting in a position where he may end up using a 1st round draft pick on a player who has a 2nd round grade on their draft board. There is a lot of talk about drafting a RB, even trading up to do so. The question is, do the Bills have a 1st round grade on either Etienne or Harris? If so, that could influence Beane into making a move up to grab one of them if standing pat will result in drafting a player with a 2nd round grade at #30. Conversely, if everyone with a 1st round grade is already gone by the time the Bills are on the clock, the best course of action might be to try and trade back if doing so would still get you a player with a 2nd round grade and more draft capital. I've linked to some rankings that don't just rank players #1 - #200, but identifies those players with a "1st round grade". They range from one set of rankings giving only twelve players a 1st round grade in this years draft to another analyst who assigned twenty-eight 1st round grades. Some of the rankings below have Etienne and Harris with a 1st round grade, while others don't give one or either of them a 1st round grade. ******************** "I've given out 25 first-round grades for the 2021 NFL Draft; so if you're picking 29th overall and all of these players are gone, my endorsement would be to try to trade back into the early portions of the next round and try again so you can find "appropriate value." https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/first-round-grades-2021-nfl-draft-kyle-crabbs The author of these rankings has only 12 players with clear "First Round Grades - Tier 1", and has players ranked 13-27 placed in a second category called "Fringe First- Early Second - Tier Two" https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/4/26/22402560/zach-hicks-final-2021-nfl-draft-top-200-big-board "Yes, there are fewer than 32 first-round grades. That’s typical, especially within the league. Just because there are 32 first-round picks every year doesn’t mean there are 32 prospects worthy of first-round selection." (Spoiler...there are 23 players with 1st round grades) https://draftwire.usatoday.com/lists/2021-nfl-draft-rankings-big-board-top-300-prospects/ "My final 2021 NFL Draft board presently breaks down as follows: 26 players with solid first-round grades..." https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-draft-prospects-2021-updated-big-board-player-rankings/

Another solid off season move by Beane that is without the bells and whistles the national media will notice or comment upon, but is the kind of move that makes a franchise successful over time.

Draft Night Confessions by Inigo Montoya 1. I liked Josh Allen, but just because he looked like a QB from central casting, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason. 2. I was happy we didn't draft the other Josh because I though he seemed like a jerk and would be hard to cheer for, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason. 3. I had no earthly idea that Josh Allen was a running QB. 4. I had no idea who Tremaine Edmunds was when we drafted him. 5. There is a reason I'm not an NFL general manager.

I'm surprised to hear anything about the Bills' plans or movements. Beane runs a pretty tight ship on information. Must be the other side of the equation whispering in ears.

The Patriots draft Mac Jones, QB, Alabama. Sports commentators commence a ball washing of epic, even Biblical proportions, of Bill Belichick who has "outsmarted the entire NFL again!" Patriots now favored to win the AFCE by the talking heads on ESPN.

Unfortunately I'm not. I live in Kentucky and try to go to at least one Bills game a year with my family if they are playing somewhere close. We've been lucky that the Bills have been in Nashville three seasons in a row counting this upcoming season. Nashville is such a great city and the people in Nashville are friendly and its a great away game destination. If I'm going to pony up for a Vegas trip I'd rather go there for a game. I think it will be another 7 years until the Bills play there again though...

Hey Scuba guy, Tell your friend that, yes in fact, it is the same Indianapolis O-line that was bad for years but turned it around in 2018. The Colts finally began to invest in the O-Line in 2018 after Luck got pounded for years and lost all of 2017 to a lingering shoulder injury. In fact, when Luck came back and played in 2018, the Colts O-line gave up an NFL fewest sacks that season (18). The Colts finished 10-6, made it to the Divisional round of the playoffs, and Luck threw for over 4,500 yards with 39 tds and only 15 INTs. Luck and the O-line had a great year in 2018, hence the surprise when he retired at the end of the season. To quote PFF from 2018; "We knew they’d be better, but I don’t think even the biggest Colts homer could have foreseen this coming. Drafting the highest-graded rookie guard though and the second-highest-graded rookie tackle will do that. Everyone and their mother predicted Quenton Nelson would be a stud, and he was as a second-team PFF All-Pro, but Braden Smith going from college guard to pro tackle was a wildcard. Fortunately, that card came up aces as Smith was PFF’s 25th-highest graded tackle on the season." 🍻

All fair points BillsVet. I agree that Beane identified the O-line as a big problem on this team and devoted a fair amount of resources to it, but I think it was a smart move to do so. Look at Darnold and look at Allen. I'm not going to state that O-line play is the main reason they went in opposite directions over the first three years of their careers, but I think O-line play certainly played a significant part. I think Beane would prefer to build this team through the draft, but in this instance, he really had no choice but to build the line in free agency. He didn't have multiple drafts to stock the O-line with talent and depth, and he didn't have the luxury of time while Josh Allen was trying to develop his game to wait on multiple drafts. I think we will see some draft capital spent next week on a center who will hopefully step into Morse's shoes after this season. If Ford, Boettger, Bates, and Lamp continue to develop we will see your vision of a young affordable O-line in front of Allen. Dawkins and Williams are locked in on reasonable tackle contracts. The interior of the line should get better and hopefully less expensive going forward. Beane simply didn't have any choice but to build the roster the way he did and the results was a 13 win season and a trip to the AFC Championship game. I'm hard pressed to find fault with Beane's strategy. 🍻