ngbills

If Bernard and Edmunds were both free agents this year who would get the bigger contract?

Nobody is 100% right and on one is 100% wrong. The most important move by Beane was drafting Josh Allen. With that said you could argue Allen is the most impactful player in the entire league and that should make a GM's job a lot easier. Yet the Bills while successful have arguably underachieved during the past 3 seasons. Heck we just narrowly made the playoffs. This may not be fair but remove Allen and what do the Bills look like? Would McD and Beane even still have jobs? Compare the Bills to some other teams that are successful without a QB and you could say those front offices have done a better job.

Well if we lose its due to one of these: 1) Offense stinks - We need a new OC and coaching staff on that side of the ball for starters. We need a few WR's. Take a close look at Morse and how much he has in the tank. Tank a close look at RT (Spencer Brown). 2) Defense Stinks - McD is coming back. But we need a DC and help in that coaching room. We have a lot of positions that may need replacements due to age and contract status. 3) Special Teams Kill Us - This should not be enough to lose but added with either of the above. New ST coach may already be a no-brainer- not sure the late season improvements are enough. 4) Horrible in game management across the board - I still think McD is safe but if its that embarrassing maybe this does him in.

I expect the Bills to win this week. I expect them to win again next week vs KC, CLE or HOU. I dont think any team is scary. BAL has mean the most consistent of the bunch but we have seen them crumble in the playoffs enough times. Is this years team better? KC has been a shell of itself but will they hit a switch and go into playoff mode? HOU has a rookie QB and I dont know if they beat CLE. CLE is playing with Flacco, who knows what will happen there but cant see them winning vs playoff defenses. MIA with all the injuries is a toss up based on what KC team shows up. PIT is lucky to be here but the story is ending this week or the next if the Bills give this one away. Bills can beat anyone or lose to anyone. I think this year is a crapshoot more than any other year. I guess to the question of who to play this week - I think PIT and HOU are the easiest outs. HOU would struggle in the BUF weather and I take a rookie QB in the playoffs. I also take PIT and Mason Rudolph. The only edge there is if is one of those snowy days it helps PIT more.

Look at this teams record this year in games it was a big favorite. This is the playoffs so my hope is its different. But based on this season, heck even last year vs MIA (Bills were favored by 13.5). So weather and Bills recent and not so recent play in games its a huge favorite are reasons to be nervous.

Weather is bad. Rudolph at QB. They are going to feed Harris and Warren and try to keep our O off the field. They were at 70% last week vs Balt.

I posted on this in another thread. The flip side is that the Bills were only 6-5 vs non-playoff teams. That makes this game kind of scary bc you could argue PIT with Mason Rudolph is one of those type of non-playoff teams we played down to their level.

Steelers gone run the ball 80%+ of the time. Pickens will likely score a long TD on a slant with the Bills playing up. Hopefully weather is not too bad and we wind up in a game like NE a few years ago. Regardless we need to score fast and early to force PIT to play catch up. Dont give them any false hope.

Sure does. And other than PHI they held each of those playoff opponents to 20 or fewer points. D is stepping up in big games. They gave up 21 or more in 7 of the 11 against non-playoff teams.

Record vs playoff teams: 5-1 Record vs non-playoff teams: 6-5 Weird year

We have regressed. That is coaching. We have regressed. That is coaching. We have regressed. That is coaching.

This is what we brought for a do or die game?

Two end zone Ints and an end the half at the one. Story of our year. Missed opportuntires.

Thank you titans. I can now enjoy this game. Three drinks in. Go billls.

Buffalo 1 million - Dolphins zero

Finish them Titans finish them

Tomlin coaching scared on O.

Balt does not want to be there at all.

He is actually in the middle to bottom in nearly all metrics. That is the difference. Not that he is not the best yet. He is being used in the most conservative way possible and has way less flash or impactful plays than other teams TE's. You said, truth is he is a promising rookie - I am on board with that. I am not on board with the he is already elite talk. There is a ton of pushing on how amazing of a season he had and I just feel there are many players that given the opportunity could replicate his numbers. Not his fault that the Bills made him a safety valve and he did what many would do with that role. If he was turning all those dump offs into 50 yards then we should be talking about how elite he is.

We gave Knox the same contract as Njoku the same offseason...then we drafted Kincaid in the first.

To the "compare only rookie stats" comments Here is my issue with that mindset. Much of the rookie stats are influenced by opportunity not ability. Look at a guy like Devin Singletary. He rushed for ~800 yards and 5+ yards per carry. Does that mean he was that good or just that he was good enough AND given the chance to play. Could those same carries have very similar results with a ton of other RB's? His stats have not changed much since then so I say opportunity. A more extreme Bills example is Robert Foster and his 500 yard season as a rookie - ability or opportunity? Was it because he is amazing or the ball has to be caught by somebody? What has he done since? Hence I vote for opportunity. That is how I see Kincaid at this point. His stats are primarily opportunity not amazing play. Looking solely at the basic stats can be misleading. He is a 1st round-pick talent so obviously can play. But I think his record-breaking stats are more that the Bills fed him the ball and as the advanced data suggests much of it was easy stuff and he did not add a ton of extra to that (depth of targets, yards after catch, 1st downs, touchdowns). IMO you dont draft a TE in round 1 to use him that way so hopefully we see more in the future. I will say it again, he needs to be catching passes down the field not dump-offs. There are better guys to have the ball on short passes like Cook who can make guys miss or even Knox who can run a guy over.

I have accepted that the playoffs are pointless if the Bills can't win this Sunday. So I expect a victory and playoff success, anything less is a failed season. They lose on Sunday I want a restructure of the coaching staff and some major roster changes.

This is likely going to ruffle some feathers around here. Every year there are guys stats that overstate their performance. I think that is year it is Kincaid. This is less about his ability and more how he was used most of the season. This past game we finally saw him going downfield where he should be. He is not Cole Beasley who will catch and pass and quickly turn up field for the extra yards squeezing through guys, he is not a monster TE that will catch a pass and run guys over for 5 yards. Yet he was primarily used in that capacity racking up easy catches but limited yards or impact. Below are some comps from the other starting TE's around the league. Yards per rec Kincaid 8.9 Kittle 15.7 tops amongst TE's Most starters are in the 10-11 range TD Kincaid 2 LaPorta is top at 9 Many others have 5-6. Kincaid at the low end with 2 1st Downs Kincaid 26 Kelce 51 tops amongst TE's Most with similar rec numbers are in the 30's and 40's. Kincaid is low end. Average Depth of Target Kincaid 5.8 yards Pitts is tops at 11.4 yards; Kittle is at 9.4 yards Most are in the 6-7 range, though some in the 5's with Kincaid at the low end. Yards after Catch Kincaid 4.3 yards Kittle and Njoku at 7.4 yards are tops Many are in the 4-6 range with Kincaid at the low end. Broken Tackles Kincaid 3 McBride is at 10 and Njoku and LaPorta are at 9 Many other from 2-7 range. Kincaid at low end. This is not a Kincaid sucks post. This is a they are confused in how to use him post and lets not celebrate his # of rec's stats. He is not a throw it to and watch him run over or around guys like he is being used. He is a tall lanky TE that should be going down the same and catching contested passes. Most NFL caliber players could replicate Kincaid catches or they would be out the league. He can and should do more and I want to see that from him...like we saw some of last week. I am happy he broke some reception records blah blah, but lest see them cut him loose.

I think there is always wishful thinking around here. The guy we have is always better than the one we don’t. The coach we have is better than the last etc. the second they are gone they are terrible or not worth it. I think it just makes people feel better than wondering. It can be scary to question things for some. So in this case it’s if Brady is not the guy what if it’s someone worse?

How many other teams highlights on O look to be good schemes (guys wide open, easy runs, etc) vs the Bills? My not watching every NFL game brain feels like I see many other teams scoring wide open TD's or huge plays with guys wide open vs. my Bills highlights being contested catches and Allen Superman plays.