ColoradoBills

The only signing they have done is a franchise tag. They have lost a bunch of players and are still over the cap.

Bills draft pick take $1.5M off the Top 51 Cap.

Not our heads, the agents heads. Guys are happy to sign these contracts!

They were 13-3. You don't know near as much as you profess to. I'll debate you whether or not they "got better" when camp is over.

He has more to do! I can't wait.

It seems to me that it's such a unique situation that Beane is not going to let it pass without doing nothing. I don't expect any BIG signing. They will go to the teams that can afford to pay those player top dollar. I do have hope that a couple of impactful players will get signed especially now that Buffalo is a "destination". Not many better places to take a 1 or 2 year contract till this blows over. I'm quoting myself to clarify. I do not think I got this down compared to GMs and Agents. I'm sure they got list broke down by position and with much more details than I do along with other teams suspected needs etc.

OK, I'm snowed in at my house in the Colorado Rockies and I don't have anything better to do. I'm retired and I just got signed up for my first Covid shot Tuesday! A trip back to Buffalo is being Planned! I wanted to take a top overview (35,000 ft for you people that were stuck in those meetings like I was) of this years crazy FA. First off I truly enjoy looking through all things Spotrac and I found something interesting I want to share. I'm using their info and for anyone wanting to "tear into me" over this don't bother. I did what I did for myself. If you don't agree that's fine! If you got some thought out input I will edit my OP. Using todays available Cap for Free Agency (money available to the teams) and taking off a very reasonable amount of leeway. What I mean there is teams are NOT going to spend every penny available in FA I came up with a $ amount. Currently that is around $572M. That figure comes form $780M right now available minus $208M ($6.5M team average) in wiggle room. That would be money left over after FA for draft and some working space. So there is around $572M chasing FAs. Let's take off $100M ($3M or so from each team) for signing a few no name team depth type players. The Bills need to sign a type of guy like Bojo, Boettger, etc) All teams still typically need to. Now we are down to $472M. Now comes the crazy part. I added up the 85 or so players (minus a few that won't get signed for various reason ie OT Fisher) from the Spotrac FA list that have a "Market Value" attached to them. I'm using this as starting point as well as a lot of others do on this site.). That number is a whopping $817M. Now if you say that through signing deals these players take only a 2/3 (.67) 1st year hit of their average "Market Value" that still comes to $548M. Remember this is just the 85 players of the currently 769 Free Agents on the list. So the $472M in team money available for FA and just looking at the 85 "Market Value" players leaves a deficit of -$76M. What is further interesting is that all the recently released players (John Brown as an example) are not even figured in the "Market Value" on Spotrac! I reason this to be that things are moving way to quick right now and they are not going to do the calculation for these guys. As of right now there are 769 FAs on the Spotrac list and I was just talking about the top 85. That leaves another 684 FAs per Spotrac! I have NEVER seen a FA list this long in all my years of following Spotrac. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/transactions/released/ My conclusion is what a lot of us have been thinking. There are way way too many Free Agents chasing way too few dollars! I just had to prove it to myself! I think there will be a frenzy to sign the marquee players and FAs targeted by teams with money but it wont last long until a good portion of the available FA $'s are eaten up and then the FUN will begin. All these numbers are fluid and a lot of things are happening but the basics still apply. I know Beane and his boys know this and I expect him to make us happy in the next week or so! FWIW and for anyone interested it took me only an hour or so to rough these numbers. I'm sure smart GMs and Player Agents have done the same. I expect a Free Agency period like none we have ever seen before and the Wizard is not going to let it pass. Think about the guys who have to sign cheap and where will they want to go. Buffalo will be on a lot of those lists. Then again I could be totally wrong but something tells me a Super Bowl run is coming THIS YEAR!

I was just going to say that about a "ring chaser" (great term and it's great to say about the Bills!) or maybe two. Three seems a little too much for the cap.

I'll "show my work" about the Bills Draft Pick cost concerning the Top 51 Cap is as follows: Every pick that is signed "displaces" a current player already being counted against the cap. Currently those players are making at least $780,000. Round 1, Pick #30--------$2,021,038 minus $780,000 equals $1,241,038 Round 2, Pick #61--------$1,000,327 minus $780,000 equals $220,327 Round 3, Pick #93--------$865,515 minus $780,000 equals $85,515 Round 5, Pick #161--------$734,059 will not count Round 5, Pick #174--------$724,218 will not count Round 6, Pick #211--------$696,650 will not count Projected Draft Pool: $6,041,807 Top 51 resulting cap hit: $1,546,880.

Nowadays teams are only required to be in compliance with the top 51 Cap Rules. Sites like Spotrac and OTC show the total cost of picks but it's not an NFL thing.

What it will ultimately come down to in Top 51 Cap hit is less than $2M.

1964 Championship Season!

I just posted in another thread that as of now Spotrac shows the pay cuts for Addison and Butler without any increase in guarantees. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/

We'll have to wait to see I guess. Spotrac has Butler still as a FA next year and no change to Addison's guaranteed money for 2021 and 2022. Thanks for your info!

Spotrac just updated the pay cut for Addison and Butler and their Dead Money stayed the same. At least that's as of now. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/

It's probably a bit of "wishful thinking" on my part but it was obvious that last years reduced camp was spent almost completely on Josh and the passing game. I'm sure this year the running game will get a fair amount of attention.

Technically upcoming FAs are still under contract until the first day of the new league year. So it's considered an extension. That's why they can't sign with another team until that day while cut players become FAs immediately and can sign with other teams. Ultimately it really doesn't matter.

If you are using Spotrac and want to see players who have signed use the Free Agent info. Free Agents listed here are all the players available by any means (waived, cut or upcoming FAs). https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

$2M each for Butler and Addison. I see it this way, they took the pay cut to "hopefully" make the team. It seems that neither were given any additional guarantee that they ultimately make the team this year. If a D-Lineman in FA is a better fit I think Beane will do what he has to!

Spotrac has the Williams contract in. Cap at $4.9M without the Butler/Addison pay cuts. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/

Best post of the day War!

Not yet. But what I'm seeing when everything is done that we have heard so far I expect the cap to be at $8M-$9M. That's enough to work with for the next few days. Lot's of wiggle room left with some restructures (if needed) and maybe a small cut/retirement/trade or two. Things looking real good so far. I'm prepared for more news!

I said "himself" and the team.

I don't.

Exactly! I have to hand it to Mahomes he did the best for himself and the team with this move.