Richard Noggin

Highmark Stadium F&B concessions have been absolute shite for many years. It is definitely not a treat to enter the stadium hungry and/or thirsty. So much of Bills tailgate culture is designed, in part, to copiously enjoy GOOD food and beverages before passing through the gates and into that captive culinary environment. Nevertheless, I'm there each week, buying something-or-other.

Awesome thread - thank you for sharing! THIS is how math can really deepen the discussion surrounding professional sports: non-predictive analysis of quantifiable data. Don't try to look forward with it; it's an amazing post-hoc tool. Sharp makes the NFL schedule a fascinating and even upsetting topic with his analytical deep dive.

Solid work here. The ONLY place I even flinch at all is TE, where I wonder if Morris has flashed untapped potential as a pass catcher, a skill the Bills might be emphasizing more in their TEs lately. Wonder if there is 1 fewer DL and/or OL spot which could lead to keeping Morris and/or we could see Austin stick in the secondary? He seems like a McDermott CB: long and smart. Do they usually keep 10 DL and 9 OL? I want to recall it being more like 9 DL and 8 OL tbh, but I have to check if that's at all accurate...

Think I agree with every point here. Weird. The nuanced caveat is Allen's 2023 pass protection: 1) if he can set up in the pocket we've seen him be patient and surgical (more in 2021 than 2022?) and move the chains methodically; or, instead 2) if he gets pressured early/often (let's say, for the sake of argument, off the RIGHT SIDE) we see a stubbornly aggressive approach that often ignores simpler solutions in favor of forcing it downfield. So having said that, I'd put the o-line as the X-factor.

Where's the internet fun in sharing reasonable takes like this?! What do you mean I don't KNOW the future of two young prospects who I lump together because they were drafted in the same round and have similar weights (uNdErSiZeD!!!) that I don't realize are closer to the norm now than whatever 245+ pound Pro Bowl LB I'm thinking of from years ago?! Nerds.

As for the OC criticism, couple ways to dice it: consensus among analysts/commentators seems to be that in the 2nd half of the season there WERE often shorter/quicker/underneath routes available to Allen on many of his unsuccessful deeper throws; the essential question then becomes unanswerable for us fans: was it play design (predictable coaching) or QB tendency (player processing regression) that dictated all those (mostly unsuccessful) deep shots against aggressive man-pressure looks (oftentimes on 3rd and short/medium)? If Knox and Hynes and Cook and whoever else were actually open for chain-moving gains, was it Josh or Dorsey who were so easily manipulated into instead tossing up lower percentage throws to single-covered WRs down the field?

Aren't the numbers cited, on a per game average, bottom-of-the-league QB production in 2023? Like 2023 NY Jets QB caliber? 7 TDs and 5 INTs in 6 games at a 58% comp pct and 79 rating...those are BAD NFL QB numbers. Sure you can contextualize and try to rationalize the challenges he faced. But don't try to pass off those dogs#!t numbers as something they're not.

The production you cite IS, in fact, terrible. The Browns need their qb to be MUCH better moving forward. Hope they don't see the desired results.

Just look at what you'll complain about. Your love language is smug fatalism, and you, sir, are a hopeless romantic.

Three reasons I DON'T see the Bills moving Gates: 1) the 4-year contract offer the Bills matched just last season shows that he is valued by the current coaches and personnel dept and 2) that value includes a dead cap number in 2023 that exceeds his cap hit enough to most likely outweigh whatever return he might fetch in a trade and 3) Bates can line up at ALL FIVE spots along the line. The Bills LOVE that kind of position flex. Bates is IDEAL o-line depth. (He might even be the heir apparent to Morse in their eyes. I hope instead they see him as high-end depth backing up the entire line.)

Was REALLY hoping this would be posted in that infamous whale of an Ertz thread. Came here uncharacteristically full of hope. "There's a price to be paid for dreaming." -Denis Johnson "Jesus's Son"

See, now you're effed. Good luck living up to this early performance moving forward. It's like any new relationship/job/social circle: pace yourself early on; don't be afraid to sandbag some Ws. Otherwise the expectations get ALL out of whack.

Notes From Underground. The Brothers Karamazov. Lfg.

Which has me wondering if he's willing to get paid like a subpackage, pass-rush specialist?

I'll ignore the sexuality stuff because it's not explicitly germane to this sports family dynamics line of thinking...that possibly the NOT athletically gifted or interested son didn't get the same kind of tangible support/validation from his professional athlete father that the uniquely gifted younger brother got. That's some low-hanging fruit for an internet full of armchair psychologists. So many easy assumptions, and gradually mounting circumstantial evidence to support them.

Is it true that Ngakoue's one of the worst rated run defenders at his position? Could have something to do with his free agency market to date. He might be a specialist who wants to get paid like a starter?

Size queens.

100% same. Does that mean my poor surviving family is on the hook? Is that what life insurance is for? I also have a terminal humanities degree, which is a funny way to say it is chasing me to the grave! Go Bills lol

And yet it does suggest you have developed the aptitude to comprehend, contextualize, and even synthesize complex and diverse texts (not to mention a tolerance for debt!)

Partially chalk that up to a VERY different, bygone era. Some fairly open, often petty hostilities led in part to the departures of Polian and Butler. Toxic, meddling ownership and high level executives were not unusual (and definitely not unusual here in Buffalo; it's what directly led to the drought. All the bonafide GMs were chased off). Less toxic, more collaboratively "aligned" corporate culture is a newer development.

Interesting comments on the WR group, for sure. They've got a diversity of traits that they lacked recently. Also interesting how TE usage might allow for several different personnel/alignment packages. They need to have the pre-programmed ability to counter defensive gameplans. Forget halftime adjustments. Show me 1st and 2nd quarter adjustments. Have the answers ready.

Obviously you've never been pressed like a panini by one of those older, heavier, hotel lobby SOBs.

Appreciate a thoughtful and well-contextualized post like this. Would really fit to provide clear-cut NFL uniform rules for the 2023 season, if someone has the energy to find and post (sadly I do not). @corta765 mentions the recent change to the shell rule, which if I understand correctly would allow for an appearance by the red helmets that I loved for so long.

The bolded doesn't add up. You're saying that sliding in passing rankings from 3.33 to 7.33, while also improving in rushing ypc from 4.2 to 5.2 over the same span somehow represents "high level" regression? Still solidly top-10 passing offense (during a period of passing proliferation leaguewide) and much improved (at least according to the metrics provided) rushing offense...I'm okay with that. Sure, starting with the second half of the Green Bay game, things didn't seem to come easy offensively. Didn't really feel like a 13-win season most of the time. I even came REALLY close to not renewing my season tickets (also because I work the other 6 days of the week). But they've earned another year to recalibrate and get back after it, at least from me. I try not to let my own arrogance and hubris interfere with enjoying the games. Sure I think I can see simple solutions, but then again I also know there are nuances and complexities and variables that are beyond my scope. Gotta be self aware enough to admit it. And try to have some actual FUN.

I think the irony in this sentence is fun. No offense, of course. But to be so judgmental whilst also being human/flawed is hilarious. Mitch Morse didn't suffer a single head injury in 2022, right? His long-term cognitive prognosis is therefore probably just fine even IF/WHEN he suffers another concussion. I'll bet he and his family and medical team have an agreed upon protocol for future concussions. I'll bet they've done a lot of research and developed a specific gameplan.