Zerovoltz

If you are going to take box score stats and project those out to how a guy will do in the pros......errr......uh......nevermind.

Hurry up and get here regular season!

....Exactly....They didn't want to pay 17 M to a guy to sit on the bench who was going to lose his job to Pat Mahomes. The guy on the bench would be the 2017 "Passer Rating Leader" and a pro bowler. .....That is why we are excited...we beleive we have someone good enough to beat out the NFL passer rating leader, etc. It was exciting drafting him...but everyone is excited when they draft a new QB...if he sucked Smith wouldn't have been traded. Not quite the same as being exicted after 2 pre season games (and yes, the fans in KC were every bit as giddy after 2 Mahomes preseason games as Bills fans are for Allen)

.....I count myself as one of those critics....and I will gladly back down if Allen continues to shine when he's playing in a real football game.....you all have every right and every reason to be encouraged....He has looked like a good QB prospect should look so far. I'm just not buying that a guy with his on field history has suddenly been cured of all his ailments after some workouts iwth Jordan Palmer, a training camp, and 2 preseason games....The same coach who had Carson Wentz, should have been able to identify these and fix them...and didn't or couldn't...but now he's suddenly fixed?.....IF that IS the case...then myself and a TON of others will have been completely wrong..PLUS, it would be a major major defeat of the analytics crowd who all say Allen should be a monumental bust.

This would be a great example of IRONY except that instead of fans all speculating etc....the Chiefs front office and staff drafted the guy....then having seen him for a whole year in their system, practices, preseason and 3 quarters of a no implication regular season game.....they made the statement that they have a known quantity when they traded away Alex Smith who still had a year at 17 million left on his contract. The enthusiasm for Mahomes at this point is based on something other than preseason games. The staff told everyone very loudly that know they have something when they moved on from Smith voluntarily.

Pick any big time QB then from the first round that was supposed to be somebody. Cade McNown...Jim Druckenmiller.....Joey Harrington....pick one or all....I'll go find preseason game summarys for all of them if you want....you are missing my point. Allen is playing vanilla defenses, who aren't discguising coverages etc..they aren't gameplanning for him...like every game 1 and 2 of preseason ever. Allen has looked pretty good so far....and he should. I still don't think he'll make it (I am just a nobody on a message board with an opinion) ....I'd temper my expectations until I'd seen him against some NFL defesnes who are gameplanning, playing all their starters etc. That's it...I am not saying Allen is Leaf or Russel or Jeff George or Jim Kelly, Aaron Rodgers etc.... You are probalby right.....I shouldn't be raining on the parade at this time.....seriously...I'd be super STOKED if I were a Bills fan having had no real QB since Kelly and this guy looks good so far.....again....I am not rooting for Allen to fail....I want him to succeed....I'd like the Bills to be a good NFL contender again.

This is a good assesment....Mahomes looked pretty good. One throw was AWFUL. and it was picked. The other near pick, was iffy....the WR (Watkins) should have kept moving....but you could call it either way I guess.....Mahomes had thrown a TD pass the prior play that was called back for a very tacky RT lined up off the line of scrimmage call...but that happens. Mahomes will have some moments that make you bang your head on a wall. We expect that for every one of those, he'll make some plays that make the difference in a game most of the time.....and maybe an occasiona Patomic Bomb.

I think he meant me.

I'm not comparing him to those guys, or any other guys....just saying that preseason games are not very good indicators of regular season play for QB.

If I were a Bills fan, I would also be encouraged by what he has shown so far....because it was what is supposed to be good....the scouting report so far has been right...he looks great in practice...and he's looked pretty good in preseason. He is supposed to shine in these situations.

All I am saying is the scouting report says Allen has physical gifts, and that he struggles under pressure and doesn't make good reads. So far the situations he has been in, favor him being able to showcase his known good qualities...his arm, body, etc....and have not been situations that would do much to test his percieved weaknesses...making reads...working under pressure.

I'm certainly not trying to say Allen = Leaf. My point is that the optimism is based on PRESEASON games. Lot's of awful NFL players have looked good in preseason games when really you are just running a scrimmage on TV......and lots of really good players, have looked bad, shaky, etc.

Here’s another account of his first night: Leaf’s first pre-season start was much better than the man selected one spot before him in the 1998 draft: But that was just one game. Manning and Leaf met head-to-head in the regular season dress rehearsal known as week three of the preseason:

No.

All well and good...but here read this. Here’s another account of his first night: Leaf’s first pre-season start was much better than the man selected one spot before him in the 1998 draft: But that was just one game. Manning and Leaf met head-to-head in the regular season dress rehearsal known as week three of the preseason:

Been fun watching the Josh Allen experience you have going on. I've been on record from the beginning saying the kid wouldn't succeed. I haven't changed my mind about that. Of all the QB situations where there is a high rookie pick, Buffalo is the one where the kid you drafted was pretty much the best QB on the roster the second his name was called at the draft. Besides being on record about Allen, I am also quoted throughout this place saying McCarron and Peterson are known commodities of below average nobodies. I still hope Allen succeeds. I can't help but think that every fan base is too critical or too optimistic about pre season football. I think this applies to Allen as well. No one is game planning against him. He is known to have a hard time with making reads. He is known to struggle under pressure. The kid has a great arm...everyone knew it from the beginning. He can really sling that ball...and there will be some times when that arm overcomes a bad read etc... I will remain skeptical of Allen until I have seen him perform against a D that is actually playing their scheme with their starters, gameplanning and all that. Ryan Leaf had some incredible pre seasons....articles were written about how the Colts had screwed up the pick...all based on a few preseason games. Be Wary.

If I were the Bills, I would offer my 1 and other stuff to try and get Mack. He is not averse to cold weather, he likes Buffalo, and he is a proven great player, AND you have the cap room for it. IF you can get him, you do it. That said, the Packers are in win now mode, and they are the only team as of right now with 2 1st round picks in the 2019 draft. They may be inclined to offer up both of those for Mack...(I'd do it)

I have Arizona in a surprise. The Rams are obviously loaded with talent..but they are about to have a locker room full of guys that didn't get paid after having been there a while and guys who just walked through the door and got paid. I have them finishing second due to internal turmoil. Arizona still has enough talent to compete and EITHER with a healthy Bradford or Rosen, has a QB to compete. The other part of this equation is that I think the other 2 teams in the diviosn, Seattle and San Fran, are not good. I do not think Jimmy G is a franchise type QB....reminds me quite a bit of Matt Cassel. Seattle has a lame duck coach with a further declining D, and a horrible O-line.

Let me preface this by saying...it is CAMP....we don't know what they are working on, what drill they are doing, what skill they might be working on....we don't know if the coach said the ball MUST go here on this drill or if the D knows the play or not....CONTEXT is very important on these things....and even then...we are talking about CAMP. Preaseaon games when the bullets are not scripted by coaches on your own team and you are matching up and doing some things....is a little better indicator...anyhow....from Chiefs camp today... One of the picks came after Mahomes drew a defender offsides and had a free play. The defender had a free shot at him, so Mahomes (knowing he had a free play) forced the throw rather than taking a sack, knowing it was win/win. That's not a bad play by the QB at all.Another pick came on the goal line with Mahomes rolling right. He had a very, very easy path to the goal line (I mean he literally could have walked in) but, as he explained after, since the QB can't be tackled he figured he would just try to throw it in regardless. He stated after practice that he would run that in during a game. So this isn't a play that would literally ever happen in a real game.The third pick was a mistaken communication that Mahomes said was his fault for calling the wrong play. That's on him. Yes...Gunner Bill...I agree with that...especially about Fuller....I just can't get my head around Watson yet....he played really great in the New England and Seattle games..but had alot of good garbage stats as well.......I guess I just can't make up my mind on him yet. I would like to have seen a full season of him since he seemed to be super good at times then not so much at others...(maybe I am just over complicating that he was a rookie and inconsistancy is to be expected?) .....I tend to think that most of the time, after that much of a sample, I can make a decent evaluation .....Watson vexes me.....can't wait for the season to start....So many teams with new generation of QB's ....

yep .....I am really looking forward to seeing Allen in the preseason....just so difficult to get any kind of good read on a guy in camp/practice etc....

He had 3 fumbles...but yeah...on pace for 43 TD.....really interesting to see how that plays out......he had 5 TD throwing VS KC last year....but basically 1 (or maybe 2) of those happend when it was still a game....3 for sure were just garbage time stat padding type of scores...in their game against the Titans..already leading 30-14 in the 4th Q...he threw 3 more TD....They all count..but I'm not sure the stat sheet tells the whole story. (as it often doesn't for many players, situations and games.)

You may be entirely right or wrong about Mahomes, Garrapolo...etc....I do kind of smirk at the love DeSahun Watson gets.....he put up some big TD numbers....and good for him...but he was also on pace for 30 Turnovers....given that a good portion of his his long TD plays were of the catch and run variety and not so much the long awesome throw type...he might not seem so awesome.....agian....we'll have to wait and see...but it's as if people discount the fact he had so many turnovers...

I'm here. My thoughts on Mahomes haven't changed because of this. We expect Mahomes to throw some INTS...he'll take chances that Alex Smith simply will not. He'll rely on his arm and make throws at times that he shouldn't make. That's fine...that's part of the deal. He is never ever going to have a 5 INT season like Alex Smith....very few QB's do. I've said it plenty of times before when discussing Mahomes and Smith...Smith was a good QB who was especially careful. He made it a point to take care of the football. That isn't a bad tihng in and of itself...but Smith's QB rating drops from the first quarter to the last, and his red zone efficiency is HORRIBLE. This isn't because Smith is an awful QB, it's because he is a very safe one. At some point, Smith figured out that you can do well by not turning over the football. .....what Smith does that you can't see on a stat sheet very easily is taking a 3rd and 8 and rushing for 3 yards instead of making a play to move the sticks, keep the ball, and the clock and score more points. I will trade the 5 INTS for 15 Mahomes INTS if Mahomes makes 30 plays to score points or extend drives that Smith did not make If you read that article and consider that panic worthy, then you are reading into that what you want it to tell you and not what it's actually saying. How many is an acceptable number in a practice? How many do we know the defense did or didn't know the play call? How many were the QB actually making a mistake? Looking forward to preseason game action...

...um...North Dakota State plays in an indoor stadium. The argument about Allen is this: Given his physical tools and mental makeup, either A) he really does suck because we have a BIG SAMPLE size that says he does. or B) He has sucked so far because in his youth and college years, he never was around good coaching or other players that would push his development along and he won't suck anymore after he gets good coaching and has teammates and opponents who are better quality. That's it. I love metrics...I think metrics are really useful.....but it doesn't take advanced metrics to tell any reasonable person that Josh Allen's actual performance in football has been poor. That includes the Bills staff. The Bills staff believes the answer is B....because you don't take him if you think it's A....and you also don't take him even if you believe it's B, but you aren't sure you can fix him. They think he's undercoaced and underdeveloped. I don't think they can do it. I would only say, in this case, where you may actually have a guy with a ton of talent, who just hasn't been developed properly for years...that could be something the analytics would miss because the analytics are analyzing high level football players, and makes no assumptions where they came from or how much football they played where, or against who. This is where you'd not rely on a number spit out by a formula...but a human judgement. Again..I don't think it will end well, but I can see a case here about why the analytic numbers may not apply.

I also thought the Giants made a mistake passing on QB this year...and that Manning is toast...they made some investments in their line and Barkely betting he has something left...we'll see. Denver is an interesting situation....I think they'll be caught in between thinking he is the man to not really being good enough, but too good to move on from....even though they probably should. JAX......They did sign him to that extension...but they can easily get out of it....they basically bought themselves another season or 2 of figuring out if he can or can't. He's probably going to last as long as that D is good and they can run the ball I'd think. Washington...will need a guy in a year or two to start preparing to take over..but I don't think they will need that after this year. Miami....Tannehill quietly signed an extension....he's an interesting case..was having something of a breakout year when he got hurt...really had that completion pct up there at 67%...now has injury history....you are probably right...he has to show big this year..and probalby wont. Pats, Saints...need to find someone to groom. Tampa may be the one team that ends up truly needing to find a new no.1 to start over with. Titans....I think Mariotta isn't very good..but in his defense, their weapons have been lower end....and I don't think internally they consider him a bust. Cincy....this is one where I would have been in that derby in this past draft...Dalton isn't that good...at least not consistantly enough.