Zerovoltz

No....This was a measured move by the Colts to get a bunch of extra selections AND stay in the top 6. They will get a blue chip NON QB at 6. There is someone up there that they like and wanted to stick around for....that is the ONLY REASON to make this deal today....they simply were not going to consider anyone outside the top 10 as a trading partner....again that is the ONLY reason to go ahead do this now, not 40 days from now.

....called it.

Not sure how anyone wants to define "bridge" but I posted about this here a few days ago. Using as a basis all QB's who have started in a superbowl in the last 20 years....these would generally be considered good, great, successful QB's by just about any metric.....when you split those guys up into two groups....those who started from day1 and those who sat for a while (half a season or longer) ....you find that the QB rating in each of those groups first 16 NFL starts is THE SAME. .....IF there were some advantage to be gained by sitting and learning it should show up for the QB's who sat and learned by getting on the field and being more ready, and therefore having better stats.....but it simply DOES NOT play out that way at all. TALENT is the determining factor on the QB being worth a damn or not...and getting those first 16 games under your belt should happen sooner, not later....as there is ZERO data suggesting sitting is a benefit. Lot's of people like to make genreal statements....sit and learn...watch how things are done, study film. and so he won't get "thrwon to the wolves and have his confidence ruined. THE DATA SUGGESTS that is all bull mess. Get on the field...in game action. That is where the learning happens.

They just signed Carlos Hyde.....did you read that? Please explain why the Browns would sign a starting RB in free agency then spend the first overall pick at RB?

Favre is on record saying he didn't like Aaron Rodgers and didn't teach him anything. And again....WHAT is it they are learning? If they are learning something, it isn't showing up when they get on the field...you'd expect to see a difference in the QB ratings for the guys who sat to be measurably higher in their first 16 games wouldn't you?

This kind of thing is very difficult to extrapolate data out of. Just using Mahomes as an example....he was 20 years old last year....maybe sitting helped him mature? Maybe working on his footwork or taking snaps in practive helped? Hard to say. You would be inclined to believe it was beneficial to sit. But, if you think sitting helps, someone like Rodgers or that grouping of SB starters who sat at first...that includes Brady fwiw.....you'd expect that their numbers over the first 16 games of their careers would be better than a rookie who was thrown right in...that first 16 games....the numbers say it simply isn't the case.

His QB rating during his first 16 games starting in the NFL suggest all that sitting didn't matter. Among SB QBs the past 20 years, his first 16 games were the same as the ones who started right away. If Mahomes plays well, what data can you point to, that shows it was BECAUSE he sat and not because he is talented?

If Mccarron is playing, your rookie isn't benefitting. Data suggests he needs to get his first 16 games under his belt...data says sitting doesn't accelerate development. Not many rookies will see the field if the "best man" is on the field. Rookie needs to develope to become the best man....data suggests they dont' develope on the bench.

A while back this was a major topic of discussion about Mahomes and when he would be "ready". I decided to try and see if there was any data to support sitting or starting etc. Here is what I found. I used QB's who started in a super bowl in the last 20 years as a basis to check this. The idea was to check a large sample of "successful NFL QBs". Here was what I found. Of the QBs to have started in at least one SB the past 20 years, the QB rating was practically the same over their first 16 games starting. So the group who sat, rated THE SAME as the group that started from day 1 as rookies over their first 16 games. In the case of TALENTED NFL QB's who played in a superbowl, the TALENT is what mattered, not sitting and learning. IF sitting was a factor, there should be a measurable advantage to those QB's in their first 16 games who sat, from having more film study, mentoring, etc. THERE IS NOT. Playing QB in the NFL is something you must actually get on a field and do in order to learn. The "Bridge QB" as a concept is dumb. Having a veteran backup in case your rookie is INJURED so the rest of the team can develope and compete is great...having some guy be a "placeholder" who delays your rookie from taking the field is less than optimal. You are wasting the most critical portion, the most painful portion of that developement and therefore also wasting: 1. The time you have your QB on his cheap rookie deal. 2. The useful year(s) of the other players on your roster. Draft your man, get him on the field. See if he improves over the course of 16 games. That's it.

I can understand why you would say this....but, you'll get it about 3 or 4 weeks into the season. I have watched a parade of mediocre QB's come through here since I was old enough to pay attention back in 86. Mahomes is NOT like any of them...he is different. he is better, and when you watch it, it is obvious. Clearly, I am biased, and you shouldn't take my word for it...but google things like Baldy Breakdowns Pat Mahomes, or just read all the comments from folks who would know.....or connect the dots....Cheifs have Alex Smith, he is good, his stat sheet is stellar. They traded up to draft Mahomes. They work with Mahomes all year. They trade Alex Smith and will start Mahomes. They didn't have to trade Smith..he was under contract another season....They know what they have. Alex Smith would not get much out of Watkins. Smith doesn't like throwing deep unless the guy has completely beaten coverage by a mile. Watkins, or any WR is wasted with Smith (SEE Jeremy Maclin) for evidence. And if you aren't convinced....watch the Redskins this year. Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson are going to be fantasy superstars...Josh Doctsons career trajectory will now go the wrong way...and they just signed Paul Richardson today....he will be a disappointment....more becasue of the QB (Smith) than Richardsons talents. As far as KC spending big on Watkins.....in my opinion, KC's offense was already good to go...need to spend on D...I guess we are tyring to be greatest show on natural grass. I am skeptical of a guy who has injury history, etc like alot of folks here.

Watkins is three years. Hitchens three years. Mahomes is under contract three more years. Plus looking like labor dispute coming in2020.

I am as surprised as anyone else how we (KC) are throwing around money. Brett Beach said a month ago we would be adding another fast deep threat at WR. The money is steep, but I can’t emphasize enough what they believe ( and I believe) they have in Mahomes. Bombs will be dropping all over the field. Watkins is only 24. They are betting he is about to reach that potential. I hope he does. my main point is though, if you get a QB in the draft who in fact is a franchise guy, this is the kind of spending you can do (I’m not arguing it’s wise spending, we’ll see) lots of room to build out the roster when QB isn’t consuming 10-30% of your cap space

.....going to strain my forearm patting myself on the back.

This takes the Broncos out of this QB market. Here is why. Keenum is being brought in to keep the window they think they have open. (I'm not sure they really have any open window left, but whatever) Keenum is going to cost WAY TOO MUCH to be a bridge...this is to be the starter for the next 2-3 years while they still have a good WR pairing, still have Von Miller, still have Harris...they aren't completely bereft of talent. Paxton Lynch is now officially a bust, but he's still on his rookie deal, still a guy they drafted in round 1 and paid dearly for to move up...and Trevor Simien....Simien isn't very good, but he's experienced and also cheap. They aren't going QB this year....they will stay put at 5 and get one of the top 3 Non QB players in this draft....again in line with trying to win while the window is open. AND....the coaching staff are all basically working THIS SEASON to prove themselves....this is not a situation where they have a staff in place, ready to start the franchise rebuild with a new QB....this staff won't be coaching any QB they take in the draft now...they are all in with Keenum and winning to save their jobs. Elway isn't going to ask for their input on wich QB fits their system etc.

Clearly I am a Chiefs fan....but even I can't wait for the draft to see how this all plays out. I've always looked at the trade last year as a great thing for KC to get Mahomes, and I am glad you got White last year...and I hope that the extra ammo you got from the KC deal last year helps you all get "the man" this year. Buffalo has been a GREAT recent trade partner for my team. I am rooting for this to go well for you all. .....also the NFL=crack. This offseason has been entertaining as hell.

Your analogy assumes a pro bowl linebacker is equal to a pro bowl QB. that simply isn’t the case.

I should just stay away from my computer for a few days. THREE. Need a franchise Qb. Not 4 . Sorry. Man I am off kilter.

Ugh. You are right. I botched this. the advantage of the round 2 picks and later is they are not subject to the stipulation when signing an extension, that are not equal to or better than the average of the 3rd-25th salary of players at the same position, but I would contend that Giants and Colts MIGHT both be inlcined to move back just a few picks, still get a nice haul and still get a blue chip prospect.....purely speculation on my part of course. I can't dispute any of this....I would simply contend that the situation at the top involves 4 teams drafting in the first 6 picks that all have a need for a "franchise" QB. and two teams who can add some serious draft capital having only to move a few slots and still likely get the NON Qb they were going to get anyhow. ....the last 6 QB drafted in round 1 were all trade ups. And to Hapless Bills Fan....when I was talking about Blue chips in this draft, I was using an arbitrary number. i don't propose to know how many of those type prospects teams think there are. simply pointing out if you think the group of guys between pick 20-40 for example are of the same quality, trading into round 2. Again, dependant on a teams board and philosphy etc.

Not many people realized it at the time, but when the NFL went to a slotted payscale for draft choices, and that system allowed for a 5th year team option on all rookie contracts for players drafted after round 1, the value of draft choices weren't the same anymore. Teams have slowly but surely began to realize this and it's reflected in how more and more teams are doing business on draft day. Let me break down what changed, and then how that applies to the Bills situation this year. The slotting system has made it MUCH MORE APPEALING to take a chance on a QB. The mistake used to cost your franchise millions and millions of dollars, setting everything back years, costing coaches and GMs their jobs, scaring off fans from buying tickets...it was an incredibly risky proposition all the way around. Now, if you swing and miss, you have a player who isn't killing your cap or your willingness to turn around and try again to find his replacement. Given that more and more teams have come around to the reality that if you don't have a QB, you are facing a steep uphill battle to compete, and given that there are plenty of teams who need to find that guy, the market for QB's in the draft is as strong or stronger now, than it has ever been. At the same time you have these forces at work, the picks in round 1, that teams are sitting with, once the "sure things" have been drafted, are not worth nearly what they once were. Here is why. Lets say you have pick 18. Your scouts/gm etc have decided that the draft has 10-12 really good, blue chip, can't miss, start day one, plug and play guys in it. After pick 12, those guys are off the board and you pick at 18. You are drafting a guy who may have a 1st round grade, but he might be every bit as good or the same as the guy who will go at 33. (first pick of round 2) The big difference being, the guy picked at 33 will have a contract that includes the magical "5th year option". An extra year of club control, that is almost certainly going to be at a bargain rate if the player is any good. The market is now set up in such a way that the 33rd pick is considered at least equal to pick 18, 14, 22...whatever the case may be...and in many teams thinking, pick 33 is the better pick to have. Again...I can take a guy who grades well, who may or may not pan out at 18, or I can take a guy with the same grade, same expectation of success, but get him a little cheaper to start with, and again, the magical extra year of club control. Now lets apply these dynamics to this years upcoming draft. At the top, you have the Browns, who should be taking a QB at 1. (I just don't see how they don't at this point) At 2, the Giants are in great shape here to basically trade down a few spots. If Allen is on the board especially, the Broncos will move up to 2. The Giants will move back to 5. they will get a 1st in 2019, and you can be sure they will get the Broncos 2nd rounder this year. 40th Overall (8th pick in round 2) that carries that contract value I just mentioned. ....I'll get back to the Giants in a moment. With two QB off the board, the Jets will be hot on the phone to move up to 3. This could very well be Baker Mayfield. The Jets will of course be trading a 2109 1st, but also that valuable early 2nd rounder. 37th Overall. The Browns now sitting at 4 take Saqon Barkley. Everyone in Cleveland is happy for a day. Then the Giants pick at 5. Having gotten a nice haul out of Denver to move down three spots, they still get a choice of Chubb, Minkah, or that Ellis guard from ND. They still get the blue chipper. The colts, Also, are still in line for Chubb, or Minkah etc....one of the blue chips. Lets examine these circumstances cloesly.....If the Bills want to move up to 2 or 3, is their ammo of 21 and 22, and a 2019 1 (and more) really more attractive than say the Giants taking 3 steps back, a 2019 first, and an early 2nd.....with the guarantee you end up with one of the few can't miss prospects in this draft? Same with the Colts..step back a few spots, get a 2019 1st, and an early 2nd this year....and still get one of the few cant miss guys now....is that better or worse than 21, 22, and 2019 1st? That is the reality the Bills are facing. Ok...now continuing.... Pick 7, Tampa. This may well be the last spot to grab a "Can't miss" blue chip guy...either Ellis, or if the Giants took him already, then whoever the last man standing is..Chubb, Minkah. There are still 2 teams.....and certainly 1 for sure, in the QB market. ARIZONA, sitting at 15. for the sake of argument, the Bucs take the last big time blue chip, and now we are on to 8. Chicago. This will be the first spot where the can't miss guys are gone, and you also have a team that either likes Calvin Ridley here or they think they can get him or some other WR a little later. They have holes to fill and need more picks. Right here the question becomes, WHO are the QB still on the board? Is he "the man" according to your board? and Is Arizona going up to get him? Sitting at 21 and 22.....isn't quite the AMMO that it would have been 10 years ago when you look at it like this. You are also looking at a near impossible climb to 2 or 3 and after that, you are realistically looking at takign the FOURTH QB OFF THE BOARD even if you can get up to 7, or 8. That is the reality of the situation. And as if this wasn't enough to consider....Arizona can stand pat, or move up and get that 4th QB if the Bills do stay put.....and lurking in front of the Bills are......... 12. Cincinnati Bengals They can walk away from Dalton after this year when his contract no longer is a cap killer. MaCaron is gone. I don't think they will go QB, but....15. Arizona Cardinals They stay in place and grab one or trade up and grab one..but here they are in dire need of a QB.16. Baltimore Ravens They can walk on Flacco after this year and that awful contract. Ozzie Newsome is retiring after this season, so I would suspect he won't go QB, and leave that problem up to the next guy....but can't rule it out. Newsome might see it as a chance to extend his legacy by drafting the next guy.17. Los Angeles Chargers Phillip Rivers isn't getting younger...and they could draft a guy to sit and learn, so a project isn't a concern here....Could totally see Mason Rudolph. Given all of this, as a big picture, it seems UNLIKELY the Bills will emerge from this draft with their present/future QB when it's said and done.

....Uh.....IF the idea that Lamar Jacksons running plays were by design......and if he has been running a Bobby Petrino "Complex NFL offense"......then doesn't that just make his crap completion pct even more glaringly bad? And wouldn't also stand to reason that if you have a QB who can run like Lamar can....and who isn't the most adept passer, you'd probably WOULD design run plays for him...lots of them. BUST. Running backs don't play QB.......because they can't complete more than 60% of their passes too. BUST.

Just something to consider......the last 6 QB's drafted in the first round were all selected by teams who traded up to get them. Given the number of teams needing a franchise QB, and given that next years class looks awful.....draft day is going to be a frenzy of trades. Cousins signing with the Vikings will hurt the Bills. Cleveland...(it is Cleveland) should take a QB at 1. Cleveland can deal the Bills another blow if that QB is NOT Allen because Denver will then call the Giants about moving up from 5 to 2 to take him. If the QB Cleveland opted for was Rosen or Darnold, then the Jets will look to move up to 3 for Mayfield. Cleveland will then be delighted at 4 to take Barkly, Fitzpatrick, Chubb...whoever they want...the Giants at 5 could have tons of options..take Chubb, take Fitzpatrick...they could go Ellis...or trade out again...or if the QB still left is the one they covet...Darnold in this case..they might do that. Colts at 6 will still have something nice to take, then you are literally looking at Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson. With Arizona needing someone, and possibly Miami, New Orleans, Baltimore, Cincy....lurking ....none of them are that likely, but I'm thinking the top 4 are gone by pick 7. and all via trade up except Cleveland. .....The Bills are going to have to be very aggressive...there are more teams that want one of these guys than there are guys to take.

I'm going to buy that this is a smokescreen to keep Rudolph clean to pick 21 (or within trade up range) I predicted in this forum a while back that Lamar Jackson would fall out of round 1, and I continue to believe that. I could see a team that already has a running/passing QB and offense taking him in round 2 as a backup and long term developement project. Carolina would be my prediction on his destination. I simply don't think any front office is going to trust the guy and is less than stellar completion pct to be the undisputed QB of the team the moment he is drafted. Recency bias is working against the kid too....Bridgewater and his injury being a light weight narrow guy from the same schoool....I don't like Allen for his crummy accuracy either, but at least some FO is going to point at that guy and say...look at his arm! Look at his size! I think there is going to be a frenzy at the top with trades and the top 4 will be gone by pick 6. Allen, Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold. ...After that, someone that missed out up at the top is going to be lurking on Rudolph. Here is what I think at this time. Cleveland take Barkley at 1. Giants trade down with Denver. Denver takes Allen at 2. Colts trade down to 6. Jets take Mayfield at 3. Cleveland takes Rosen despite his overtures of not wanting to be there at 4. Giants can't believe their luck....Darnold is here still. They take him....they have time to work with him while Eli rides off into the sunset. Colts are happy as they go Chubb at 6. Then it's no mans land all the way to 21. Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson are on the board and Arizona is sitting there at 15. Tampa is on the clock at 7. This is what I believe Buffalo is going to be looking at on Draft Day.....I can totally see a scenario where the Bills have to contemplate moving up to SEVEN, to take the 5th QB off the board if they want Rudolph. Once Rudolph comes off the board, then it's all downhill for Jackson....if the Bills are still sitting there at 21, with no QB, they aren't taking Jackson either because he may well be there in round 2, or you go with the second tier...Lauletta etc. If I was the Bills and this plays out, it would make me sick.

.....I'm trolling, but ....you could have had that combo at 10 last year.....(Pat Mahomes)

Well....if he is Vick...that's worthwhile. If he's Geno Smith...not so much. I don't think he's accurate enough to win consistantly in the NFL....I would not draft him in round 1. (I have the same concern for Allen)

This is a great way to look at it. .....but it depends also on what you think of Jackson...he WOULD be the best in the class...I'm still very unsure about what I think of him....but if your front office grades him as EJ Manual...even if he is the best of the class....that isn't a class you want any part of....if he's Mike Vick, Cam Newton or something good or better than that..you'd be all over it...NOW while you can get him. I can't wait for this draft....NFL=CRACK. ....and still hoping this works out for you guys...Would love to see the trade be a "win-win" for everyone. They are the best kind of deals.