Zerovoltz

Couple of thoughts here.....first of all....watching this board IN GENERAL go from being excited about the FA and Draft eligible QB's, and then trading up to 12 to get more ammo for an attempt at a further move up the board....to watching as this board IN GENERAL, fell real concern about the Jets trading up to 3 (legit concern) ......to analyzing the press conference where the GM is clearly trying to temper expectations....to now, where many (not all) of you are now trying to talk yourself into thinking AJ is about to be the next great QB who just needed a shot, ala Brady. I guess you can always hope. I very much sympathize with your plight....went through 3 decades of similar bull mess in KC.....by choice. ....always signing some other teams castoff because he had "developed" already with them...he was ready to go now...we had not wasted our time and draft picks developing them, we let the 49ers do that for us (Montana, Bono, Grbac, Smith) ....anyhow, I used to participate in these very same types of conversations. I used to be the guy who thought you could win with just some guy at QB, and build a strong roster around him....hell KC has been the 1 seed in the AFC doing just this very thing. I used to make a passionate argument that Tyler Thigpen would lead the Chiefs to glory! I lost a 50 dollar bet back in 2012 or so when I was sure Thigpen would be the starting QB the next time the Chiefs won a playoff game. After I lost that bet (what a stupid bet!) I began to re evaluate my thoughts about all this. Keep in mind too, that KC has a LONG history of having some of the NFL's best RB over this same period of time. Okoye, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Jamal Charles and now Kareem Hunt.....and here is a list of the QB who beat us every playoffs. Marino twice, JIM KELLY twice, Manning twice, Luck, Brady, Elway, Harbaugh, Mariotta, Flacco, and Stan Humphries. That list has 6 hall of famers in it, for a total of 9 playoff wins against us. Flacco isn't going to the hall of fame, but he beat us on his way to a super bowl win. .....I watched every one of those games....and in ALL OF THEM, the Chiefs had the better, deeper roster than every damn team we lost to. We were lacking at ONE SPOT. I watched Matt Cassel be propped up by the fans, the media, the staff and front office. Todd Haley basically was fired by Scott Pioli because Haley had seen enough of Matt Cassel and Pioli was never going to admit Cassel was someone we needed to move on from. Anyhow....I know what this is like...to be a fan of a team that for whatever reason is stuck at QB....This is what it looks like...the fans don't want to admit the obvious, they don't want to start a season with no hope...after all what is a new season, with training camp and a 0-0 record if not Hope? As Red told Andy...hope is a dangerous thing.....when you don't have a QB. That's exactly the quote too..it's just hard to hear that last part in the movie.

The Browns aren't drafting Barkley...not at 1 AND not at 4 if he is there....they signed Carlos Hyde to big deal to start. They have a good change of pace back on the roster. The GM is on record putting RB at the bottom of the list of things you need to win...and he has been in charge of, or been a part of drafts for decades where the philosphy was to wait on RB. If the Browns stay at 4 (and I think they will) it is because they will pick a PREMIUM position player. Chubb, or Fitzpatrick...not RB in a RB rich class that they own a ton of picks in. Same reason why they aren't trading out of 4...they have draft capital and they now intend to cash in. The GIANTS drafting Barkley makes more sense. They don't have a bonofide starter on the roster, and their FO isn't opposed to RB high.....and given that it makes some sense and they have a need I still think they are also going QB. Eli is amost toast, they are in position to get his replacement. 2019 is a bad QB draft class and they have no clue where they would even be selecting. This again, is a deep RB draft..they can wait. QB is scarce and it will be even more scarce after this draft. QB 1-2-3. The Bills must hope that the 4th QB in this draft is someone they like.

Would you trade the 12th Pick, Tredaveon White and a 3rd for Mahomes or Watson? .....Of course you would.

I got some Matt Cassel "Highlights" you can look at too.....he looks GREAT in his "highlights" ....and he's on the open market! If you just look at his "highlights" you'll wonder how this guy was ever allowed to escape New England! A.J. = every midling NFL QB that ever graced the roster of an NFL team that missed or didn't try to draft a franchise QB.

If you are drafting a QB that takes TWO OR THREE years, then you shouldn't be drafting that QB. .....and uh Denver has one of those 2 to 3 years to develop guys on the roster already....do a google search for Paxton Lynch scouting reports and read all about 2-3 years....

One other item to consider. Any stupid notion the Brown would take Barkley at 1 should be dead now....The Jets didn't go to 3 to take a NON QB. Cleveland would be making a mistake trying to figure out what will happen at 2 and 3 before taking a QB at 4. They simply have no reason at all to pass the QB they want at 1. They are still going to get a very valuable piece at 4. QB 1. Another way to look at it. in picks 2 and 3, you KNOW at least one of those is a QB. (Jets) the 2nd MIGHT be also. If you want Barkley (I do not think they will take Barkley at 4) at 4, he has a 50/50 chance of being there. There is NOT a 50/50 chance at the QB first on your board being there at 4. Browns QB at 1. Bet the house on it.

Nothing new to add, and it's been said before....but I laugh when people say...I wouldn't take QB X at 5 but if he fell to 24 I would....or better example...he's not worth taking at 7 but I'd do it at pick 15. ??? If you have identified a franchise QB, then the pick at which you take him means NOTHING....the point is that you take him, or get him. there is no such thing as a franchise QB who isn't worthy of any pick in a draft.

Some other things to discern from this. Certainly if the Jets dealt with the Colts, they would have called the Giants. Suggests the Giants have identified their choice at 2...whoever that is. ....and they must not think that player will be around at 6. This suggests QB more than anything. Doesn't rule out Barkley. Just says they like someone at 2. colts GM on record saying they took other calls...didn't want to exit top 10. That doesn't mean they spoke to bills, but it could mean they spoke to Bills, and/or Arizona, and/or Miami maybe...and others not suspected of wanting to go up. Further suggests that the Jets have either A). at least 3 QBs they rank the same or B) the one they rank higher is the one they must think will be there. That continues to lead me to think Mayfield is their guy as I do not beleive Cleveland or the Giants are in on him. in the case of the Jets....they must be good with Darnold and rosen being gone before 3.

Lots and lots of folks here with some kneejerk reactions to todays trade are getting some things severely wrong as they try and make sense of what is going on. 1. Cleveland. They are taking a QB. I don't claim to know which one, but it will be a QB. The barkley talk at 1 AND/OR 4 is rediculous. They signed Carlos Hyde to a big deal this past week to be the feature back. They have Duke Johnson, one of the few consistant performers on their roster as the 3rd down guy. Doresy has a LONG LONG history of being with front offices that don't take RB high, or when has made the choices himself, has NOT taken RB high. He drafted Kareem Hunt in round 3 last year....his entire careers work and experience indicate that he is clearly in the "you can find a RB later" school of thought. It's a deep RB draft. They aren't taking Barkley at 1, AND they aren't taking him at 4. 2. NY Giants. Everything has a price...and the Giants can demand a ransom here, you would think...but can they really? Barkley is a more obvious fit here, they have a GM who last year spent a 1st round pick on Christian McCaffery. They have a need at RB...but they have plenty of holes to fill, deep RB draft. Consider the 2019 QB class SUCKS. (at least it seems that way now...granted we are a year out, but it's not good) They were all geared up to move on from Eli at the end of last season. They still understand that Eli is just about done as it is even if they aren't moving on just yet. They are in a great position to take his successor. Again, looking forward a year....when the QB crop is lacking and you don't know where you are drafting, they may recognize the position they are in as the best chance to get their next QB. They may well be prepared to have a 2019 in which there is no Eli, no Beckham, and they are starting over....could get a jump on that with the QB now. Let's examine the trade market for this pick. 1QB off the board at 1. Let's assume that is either Darnold or Allen. The Jet's are at 3, willing to move up to 2 if they must to get Mayfield (speculation on my part, but I believe that is their man.) Cleveland with 4, not moving up. Denver at 5. They aren't moving up. They are staying put. So, no trade partner there. 6. Colts. no reason to move up to six after moving out of 3....they are also staying in place at 6 for a top NON QB. Tampa at 7. Not moving on from Winston (nor should they, he's shown enough to continue as the unquestioned starter) 8. Chicago. They have Trubisky. They aren't in the trade up market, and if they were to move up it isn't for QB. No reason to go to 2. 9. 49ers. Garroppolo. 10. Raiders. Carr. 11. Miami. They are sticking with Tannehill...see below. 12. Buffalo. NEED QB. 13. Redskins. Alex Smith. 14. Packers. Rodgers. 15 Arizona. Signed Bradford..but could use drafted QB. 16. Baltimore. Not trading up for QB this year..have Flacco. The trade market is stay in place or move to 12 and picks with Buffalo. Arizona has no ammo. 3. Jets. They will take a QB here....I am almost sure it's Mayfield. They are in great shape if this is their man...the Giants would be the desination for Rosen if they take one. If the Giants can figure out the Jets target, and it isn't the QB they are after, they could fleece the jets to flop spots. 4. Cleveland....could trade out, but if you read the market for the 2nd pick....it's the same market. Cleveland will spend this pick on a top NON QB prospect. 5. Denver at 5. They aren't moving up. Let's look at this closely...it's another team alot of folks here haven't paid close attention to. They signed Keenum for starter money. They have a coaching staff who has THIS YEAR. The GM has been plauged by poor QB choices. Paxton Lynch is still on the roster. They have re-upped their WR's for the next two seasons. They are in WIN NOW mode while they percieve their window is open. They need more day 1 starter help, not developmental QB help. They are NOT a threat to move up now, nor are they a threat to take a QB where they sit. They are in on a top Non QB prospect at 5. They are staying put. 6. Colts. Chose to trade with Jets for a reason...wanting a top NON QB prospect and can still get that here. Miami just restructed Tannehill...he's there for 2 more seasons, or they take a giant cap hit to let him go. The Bills are still in line to get a QB...at 12. The Jets move up has settled the situation at the top....the Problem here is the Bills Board. is the QB that will be left, is he "the man?" speculating that the draft goes 1.Darnold. 2. Rosen. 3 Mayfield. That leaves ALLEN, JACKSON....and Rudolph. It is ENTIRELY POSSIBLE that Buffalo passes at 12 now even, and waits for 21 to see how it shakes out. I am sure Jackson and Rudolph will have made it that far..and possibly even Allen. That leaves the following possible scenarios. Best Case: at 2, the Giants keep the pick AND take a NON QB. Jet's go Mayfield...that leave Rosen for the taking, and the Bills with plenty of Ammo and all sorts of trade partners to work with to move up and get him. More Likely Case: Giants don't show their hand, Jets get itchy about their man, fear someone could move up, Giants know Bills have need for Rosen....takes 2 to have a market....they have a market...Bills sell the farm to move up. 12, 21, other picks. Get Rosen. Alternate Likely Case: Giants convince Jets someone is about to move to 2 and get their guy. Jet's swap with Giants. Jets take Mayfield anyhow. Giants and Bills talk. Bills still pay ransom to move up to 3 for Rosen. Better Case: Rosen still on board as draft progresses....closer he gets to 12, less ransom the bills pay to move up....perhaps he lasts to 12. Beane is hero. Not knowing what the Giants think of Rosen and others, and not being sure who the Jets want keeps things cloudy, but the Bills are not in horrible shape, they haven't missed out...and the Jets moving to 3 clarifies the market and allows time to consider options and plan.

No....This was a measured move by the Colts to get a bunch of extra selections AND stay in the top 6. They will get a blue chip NON QB at 6. There is someone up there that they like and wanted to stick around for....that is the ONLY REASON to make this deal today....they simply were not going to consider anyone outside the top 10 as a trading partner....again that is the ONLY reason to go ahead do this now, not 40 days from now.

....called it.

Not sure how anyone wants to define "bridge" but I posted about this here a few days ago. Using as a basis all QB's who have started in a superbowl in the last 20 years....these would generally be considered good, great, successful QB's by just about any metric.....when you split those guys up into two groups....those who started from day1 and those who sat for a while (half a season or longer) ....you find that the QB rating in each of those groups first 16 NFL starts is THE SAME. .....IF there were some advantage to be gained by sitting and learning it should show up for the QB's who sat and learned by getting on the field and being more ready, and therefore having better stats.....but it simply DOES NOT play out that way at all. TALENT is the determining factor on the QB being worth a damn or not...and getting those first 16 games under your belt should happen sooner, not later....as there is ZERO data suggesting sitting is a benefit. Lot's of people like to make genreal statements....sit and learn...watch how things are done, study film. and so he won't get "thrwon to the wolves and have his confidence ruined. THE DATA SUGGESTS that is all bull mess. Get on the field...in game action. That is where the learning happens.

They just signed Carlos Hyde.....did you read that? Please explain why the Browns would sign a starting RB in free agency then spend the first overall pick at RB?

Favre is on record saying he didn't like Aaron Rodgers and didn't teach him anything. And again....WHAT is it they are learning? If they are learning something, it isn't showing up when they get on the field...you'd expect to see a difference in the QB ratings for the guys who sat to be measurably higher in their first 16 games wouldn't you?

This kind of thing is very difficult to extrapolate data out of. Just using Mahomes as an example....he was 20 years old last year....maybe sitting helped him mature? Maybe working on his footwork or taking snaps in practive helped? Hard to say. You would be inclined to believe it was beneficial to sit. But, if you think sitting helps, someone like Rodgers or that grouping of SB starters who sat at first...that includes Brady fwiw.....you'd expect that their numbers over the first 16 games of their careers would be better than a rookie who was thrown right in...that first 16 games....the numbers say it simply isn't the case.

His QB rating during his first 16 games starting in the NFL suggest all that sitting didn't matter. Among SB QBs the past 20 years, his first 16 games were the same as the ones who started right away. If Mahomes plays well, what data can you point to, that shows it was BECAUSE he sat and not because he is talented?

If Mccarron is playing, your rookie isn't benefitting. Data suggests he needs to get his first 16 games under his belt...data says sitting doesn't accelerate development. Not many rookies will see the field if the "best man" is on the field. Rookie needs to develope to become the best man....data suggests they dont' develope on the bench.

A while back this was a major topic of discussion about Mahomes and when he would be "ready". I decided to try and see if there was any data to support sitting or starting etc. Here is what I found. I used QB's who started in a super bowl in the last 20 years as a basis to check this. The idea was to check a large sample of "successful NFL QBs". Here was what I found. Of the QBs to have started in at least one SB the past 20 years, the QB rating was practically the same over their first 16 games starting. So the group who sat, rated THE SAME as the group that started from day 1 as rookies over their first 16 games. In the case of TALENTED NFL QB's who played in a superbowl, the TALENT is what mattered, not sitting and learning. IF sitting was a factor, there should be a measurable advantage to those QB's in their first 16 games who sat, from having more film study, mentoring, etc. THERE IS NOT. Playing QB in the NFL is something you must actually get on a field and do in order to learn. The "Bridge QB" as a concept is dumb. Having a veteran backup in case your rookie is INJURED so the rest of the team can develope and compete is great...having some guy be a "placeholder" who delays your rookie from taking the field is less than optimal. You are wasting the most critical portion, the most painful portion of that developement and therefore also wasting: 1. The time you have your QB on his cheap rookie deal. 2. The useful year(s) of the other players on your roster. Draft your man, get him on the field. See if he improves over the course of 16 games. That's it.

I can understand why you would say this....but, you'll get it about 3 or 4 weeks into the season. I have watched a parade of mediocre QB's come through here since I was old enough to pay attention back in 86. Mahomes is NOT like any of them...he is different. he is better, and when you watch it, it is obvious. Clearly, I am biased, and you shouldn't take my word for it...but google things like Baldy Breakdowns Pat Mahomes, or just read all the comments from folks who would know.....or connect the dots....Cheifs have Alex Smith, he is good, his stat sheet is stellar. They traded up to draft Mahomes. They work with Mahomes all year. They trade Alex Smith and will start Mahomes. They didn't have to trade Smith..he was under contract another season....They know what they have. Alex Smith would not get much out of Watkins. Smith doesn't like throwing deep unless the guy has completely beaten coverage by a mile. Watkins, or any WR is wasted with Smith (SEE Jeremy Maclin) for evidence. And if you aren't convinced....watch the Redskins this year. Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson are going to be fantasy superstars...Josh Doctsons career trajectory will now go the wrong way...and they just signed Paul Richardson today....he will be a disappointment....more becasue of the QB (Smith) than Richardsons talents. As far as KC spending big on Watkins.....in my opinion, KC's offense was already good to go...need to spend on D...I guess we are tyring to be greatest show on natural grass. I am skeptical of a guy who has injury history, etc like alot of folks here.

Watkins is three years. Hitchens three years. Mahomes is under contract three more years. Plus looking like labor dispute coming in2020.

I am as surprised as anyone else how we (KC) are throwing around money. Brett Beach said a month ago we would be adding another fast deep threat at WR. The money is steep, but I can’t emphasize enough what they believe ( and I believe) they have in Mahomes. Bombs will be dropping all over the field. Watkins is only 24. They are betting he is about to reach that potential. I hope he does. my main point is though, if you get a QB in the draft who in fact is a franchise guy, this is the kind of spending you can do (I’m not arguing it’s wise spending, we’ll see) lots of room to build out the roster when QB isn’t consuming 10-30% of your cap space

.....going to strain my forearm patting myself on the back.

This takes the Broncos out of this QB market. Here is why. Keenum is being brought in to keep the window they think they have open. (I'm not sure they really have any open window left, but whatever) Keenum is going to cost WAY TOO MUCH to be a bridge...this is to be the starter for the next 2-3 years while they still have a good WR pairing, still have Von Miller, still have Harris...they aren't completely bereft of talent. Paxton Lynch is now officially a bust, but he's still on his rookie deal, still a guy they drafted in round 1 and paid dearly for to move up...and Trevor Simien....Simien isn't very good, but he's experienced and also cheap. They aren't going QB this year....they will stay put at 5 and get one of the top 3 Non QB players in this draft....again in line with trying to win while the window is open. AND....the coaching staff are all basically working THIS SEASON to prove themselves....this is not a situation where they have a staff in place, ready to start the franchise rebuild with a new QB....this staff won't be coaching any QB they take in the draft now...they are all in with Keenum and winning to save their jobs. Elway isn't going to ask for their input on wich QB fits their system etc.

Clearly I am a Chiefs fan....but even I can't wait for the draft to see how this all plays out. I've always looked at the trade last year as a great thing for KC to get Mahomes, and I am glad you got White last year...and I hope that the extra ammo you got from the KC deal last year helps you all get "the man" this year. Buffalo has been a GREAT recent trade partner for my team. I am rooting for this to go well for you all. .....also the NFL=crack. This offseason has been entertaining as hell.

Your analogy assumes a pro bowl linebacker is equal to a pro bowl QB. that simply isn’t the case.