Zerovoltz

Couple of thoughts. I believe Denvers pick at 5 is going to be in play no matter what Cousins does. Denver is set up to win NOW. They have a coach basically coaching for his future this year, they have the team getting old and the window closing shortly, and John Elway, on top of needing to find players to win now, already swung and apparently missed ,or is still evaluating Paxton Lynch. If Cousins ins't in Denver, I'd bet that Sam Bradford is. Denver can stomach the injury history in exchange for a chance to keep the window open. Throw in that the longer this goes, the less enticing this class is...and that Denver may see 3 QB go off the board ahead of them....pick 5 is in play. And if the report is true that Cousins isn't considering the Bills or vice versa or both...then it will be imperative to get your QB....how will the fans possibly accept passing on Watson and Mahomes for draft capital that you don't end up spending now to address QB? One last thing.....for the Defense Wins Championships crowd....have you ever considered the possibility that a defense can perform much better when the QB on their team converts 3rd downs, scores points, doesn't make bad turnovers in his own end of the field? If you ask a defense to be great and win you a title that is a tall enough task as it is...but to overcome having to defend short fields, be on the field more often and the pressure to know your QB probalby isn't leading you to a comeback are major factors....it's part of why the teams with the franchise QB's keep showing up in the playoffs all the time....you can retool a defense and help it along with strong QB play...much harder the other way around.

I'm on record in other threads here saying the same thing, but this is the guy that is going to have draft day stock go up. ....he's prototypical size...lots of reps...good arm...well spoken and articulate speaker....looks and sounds the part....Not comparing from a physical talent perspective, but that guy sounds JUST LIKE TRENT GREEN. This guy has more physical gifts than Green had....Green had to max out his brain to get the most out of his limited tools...and he did it....The guy sounds like he could confidently command a huddle. ....This is the guy I am predicting will be the ultimate winner out of this draft class. Allen will bust. ....I am on the fence about Jackson but heard his interviews today, and all I could think of listening to him speak was Geno Smith. .....anyhow.....Here is your target Bufallo. You missed Mahomes, but you can totally redeem the day, and WIN the KC trade by getting the franchise QB in this draft (because it will have paid off for you to get the high end CB AND the draft capital) *Prediction* Rudolph goes in top 10. Buffalo will need to get up there.....and they have the ammo.

This is the most disappointing part of all this....Reid is supposed to be able to handle this kind of player and get the value out of him. The Chiefs are NOT in rebuild mode. They are in fix the defense mode. Offense is locked and loaded. The players that have been let go, aside from Peters, were old very costly vets that played very little as it was, and didn't contribute to a bad defense. Eric Berry back from injury, Amerson and Fuller added to bad secondary.....and Ragland expected to step up and be leader in the middle. ....I would not have thought they would make this trade. From a purely football perspective, Peters will cost you from time to time with dumb fouls...but he is a turnover machine..teams don't throw his way much at all. A true shutdown corner. And on his cheap rookie deal. 3 million this year, 9 million next year....could franchise tag a third year at about 15 or so probalby...still a bargain for a CB of his caliber. Given the LOW interest generated for him, he must be an awful nightmare in the locker room...he has NOT been a problem in the community at all. The Chiefs must be thinking this is "addition by subtraction" ....again from a football perspective, it makes no sense....gotta be a purely locker room/coaching issue driven move. Compensation still not announced, but we are expecting to be underwhelmed and hugely dissappointed in the return. In my opinion, you keep Peters and deal with him...he is worth more ON the team with his cheap contract, then not on with with the team getting a middling pick or 2. (BARF!) The last bit about moving on from Houston seems interesting...no talk of it...but given that they have traded Peters...anything is possible I guess. I'd venture to guess he stays as his contract is a nightmare to trade away and his dead money is too painful for the team to cut him.

Your assessment has caused me to reconsider my evaluation on Jackson....I'm going to go watch more film.

I don't know who John McClain is if he isn't slaying bad guys at Nakatomi plaza.....but Peter King? Come on...that guy is living off of reputation at this point. I will concede the version of events you describe is quite convievable....I don't think the Texans liked Trubisky. I don't think the Chiefs liked Trubisky. We know the Browns didn't like Trubisky or Watson. .....Watson looked good in the games he played....sad to see he suffered that injury..I'd like to see more....will be interesting to watch how that goes over the next couple of seasons for sure.

.....It probalby will be a kind of weak point due to his performance thus far in a somewhat small sample size, but an example of a team trading up to go get someone, anyone, becuase, hey we have to our QB situation sucks...would be the Texans last year. Some speculative reports suggested that they were more or less directed by the owner to go up and get Watson once Trubisky and Mahomes were off the board....reason being that owner wasn't going into yet another year with no QB he could sell to the fan base....Watson was a name, and in the time he was on the field, did put up some decent numbers and exciting play...before getting hurt...so jury still kind of out considering the whole picture including the injury. ....

As a Chiefs fan, the most exciting draft event I have ever seen was last years trade up to 10 so we could draft Mahomes. ....Even before we knew it was Mahomes, it was pretty well understood that as soon as that trade was made they'd gone up there for Watson or Mahomes. It was incredible knowing that they had A) Identified "the man" and B) they actually went and did what it took to go get him. I hope that you all have a similar draft day experience this year...especially since it has been at least somewhat alluded to that by punting on QB last year, the Bills had turned their eyes to this QB draft class and had aquired ammo for it.

I think sometimes people get caught up in stats a little too much...and I love stats and trying to find ways to quantify things. ....As someone who has carefully observed Alex Smith for 5 seasons, if all we went off of were Alex Smiths stats, then you would think KC had a top 5 QB...and even this year, using only stats, you could make a top 3 argument. Football is still a game that the metrics have trouble capturing the whole package. Smith is a perfect example of this. His completion pct is incredibly high. He also rarely turns the ball over. He had some great "deep ball" stats this year as well. Going off of all this, one would wonder why in the world KC would ever want to move on from him? The answer is, you have to actually watch the games to see the story the stats aren't telling you. In the case of Smith, his completion pct is high because he A)opts to throw a lot of short, open, easy passes. B) He doesn't throw the 50/50 ball. EVER. if he does go downfield, it's because he does see the wide open target and gets it there. C) he will not risk a turnover to make a play. KC has been an AWFUL DREADFUL 3rd down team for years. Smith will run, or check down and throw short on 3rd and 8. No INT. No sack. No turnover. Stat sheet shows complete pass. Stat sheet doesn't account for the fact you needed Smith to make something happen to extend a drive etc. There is also no stat for pocket presence. Smith doesn't have good pocket presence. To the untrained eye, he appears to be "extending the play" but 7 out of 10 times, he has abandoned a perfectly good NFL pocket to go running, often at the expense of a more positive outcome if he stood in and found the open man. ....Going back to Smiths deep ball stats this year....if you look at the plays, he literally felt Tyreek Hill was open enough and that he could throw it out there (Smith has tendancy to overthrow when he goes deep to avoid the pick) so far and Hill could still get it...that Smith had some success on these this year. ....again, because they were wide open. (you could say he at least hit the guy who was open) ....but you would pull your hair out watching games and realize for every one of these he hit...he NEVER SAW the other 3 wide open shots becaue of the poor pocket presece. My whole point here is that Smiths stat sheet doesn't paint the whole picture and neither does Cousins. Someone here said they went back and watched Cousins actually play football games....I highly recommend that before making a call on what you think of Cousins (or Smith, or Rosen, Darnold, etc) is that you go watch games...pay attention to the situation, do they stand in a pocket and read the field? Do they take a chance and make a play when you need a play or do they play it safe? Can they "feel" the pocket? Do they check down at the correct time? How open are their targets? Does the play inflate the QB's stats (60 yard screen pass) vs ball in the air yards?

We (KC) signed him to a one year "prove it" contract. Given how awful the CB's opposite Peters have been....probably worth a shot since he didn't cost much.

....All this speculation is further ammo for the idea that the Bills should be all in on Kirk Cousins. Sitting there at 21&22, having to speculate on A) that you can find a trading partner and B) that the guy you have identified will be there to trade up for, is a whole lot of uncertainty to be betting on come draft day. All Cousins costs is money, and his contract will seem steep at first, but it will fall right in line with the leauge in short order. He has proven to be able to produce with a sub par roster and broken O-line. If I were the Bills, he would be option one, then use the draft capital to start building with others and their cheap contracts. For what it's worth, I do think Cleveland is going to win the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. Again, all he costs is money.

Off Season - Cousins ends up with the Browns. They ultimately throw even more money at him than anyone though possible signing 5 years at 32 millions per. Dorsey sees this QB class and knowing he has so much cap room, opts to go Shaquon Barkley 1/1, trading his 4th overall to the Cardinals. The Bills don't find a trading partner to move up, and end up drafting Mason Rudolph in round 1. LeVeon Bell re signs with the Steelers. Nick Foles remains on the Eagles roster. The Indianapolis Colts sign Sam Bradford as either the fill in while Luck comes back...or just flat out as Lucks replacement if he can't come back. They draft Nick Chubb, thus denying the Bills a potential trading partner. The Denver Broncos, stunned hat having missed out on Cousins, show interest in.........Tyrod Taylor. Elway, having swung and missed on Lynch, can't go back and draft another big tall QB again....he has a coach on the hot seat...he has a 1st round QB on the roster that he selected....he gets the veteran Taylor to compete for the job with lynch and they stumble into the 2018 season having not had the off season they were hoping to have. Minnesota resigns Case Keenum AND Teddy Bridgwater. Kansas City signs EJ Gaines. 2018 Season the Patriots and Tom Brady get very old in a big hurry. Don't win the division, miss playoffs. Miami with a healthy Tannehill, wins division with 9-7 record. Jets with New QB Baker Mayfield, go 8-8 and have a bright future to look forward to. Bills struggle to go 5-11...everyone is disappointed, but talk about the great non QB draft picks the team has, and looking forward to drafting more very good NON Qb's in the 2019 draft. The Eagles remain a force to be reckoned with. The Redskins quickly learn that Alex Smith can't elevate garbage talent around him like Kirk Cousins could...they go 6-10 and regret mishandling the cousins situation even more. Eli Manning throws a bunch of picks and is replaced at some point by Rosen. He looks good, the future is bright in NYC. Dallas makes the wild card as strong contender with their RB being back on the squad all season. The Cowboys resign demarcus lawrence. Dez Bryant takes a pay cut and stays. Cleveland, with new QB Kirk Cousins, go 8-8....Cleveland misses the playoffs but fans in Cleveland are stoked. Pittsburg grinds out another division title at 10-6...ben starting to feel his age, Bell still strong....Cincinnatti goes 4-12. Baltimore goes 5-11. joe Flacco finishes his last season for the ravens. Green Bay, with a healthy Rodgers, wins the division going 11-5. Chicago surprises some folks going 9-7 with an improving Mitch Trubisky. Detroit remains lost with Matt Patricia going 5-11 and the Vikings suffer a regression with Keenum reverting to the mean and the team suffering a playoff hangover in general. Indianapolis ends up losing Luck for the year and another surgery...probably ending his career. He and Bert Jones share beers and cry about what could have been. The colts go 3-13. Jacksonville wins the division with a surprisingly improved Bortles leading the way. Houston, with a healthy Watson, disappoints as the defense now suddenly sucks..they go 8-8. The Titans, who do nothing in the offseason besides change uniforms, suck badly. the team internally believe Mariotta isn't the man for the QB job. The Seahawks flame out entirely as Carroll retires at seasons end. They go to rebuild mode. The Rams win the division with a progressing Goff and more pieces added to the offense. Arizona struggles with whoever their new QB is. The Niners make the wild card with Jimmy G. Kansas City goes 13-3, clinches homefield advantage in the AFC, win their two home playoff games and prepare to face the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Denver implodes with Tyrod Taylor starting most of the games as Paxton Lynch can't wrestle the job away from him. Elway resigns, they go into rebuild mode. Chucky comes back and turns David Carr into a respectable QB, but the team has issues and can only muster an 8-8 record. The Chargers get one last good push from Philip Rivers and make the playoffs. New Orleans re signs Brees...they win the division. Atlanta suffers playoff hangover, Julio Jones slows down, the whole team slows down...they miss playoffs. Carolina has an off year....miss playoffs. Tampa has another bad season....internally they decide Jameis Winston isn't the man. Chiefs win super bowl....beginning the next NFL dynasty, this being the 1st of 4 in the next 8-10 years.

Frankly, Cousins should be OPTION 1 for any team needing a QB this off season, including the Bills. He costs anyone that signs him only money, not draft picks. He is a known quantity. He has shown he can produce with less than optimal talent around him. That's worth the contract. If you try your best and miss on Cousins, then you look at your other options, including the draft. The best thing the Bills could do this off season, is sign Cousins. You can't possibly say right now that Cousins in your hand, is worse than the unkown of going to draft day wondering who will be picked where, if your guy will be gone, if you can work a deal with a willing partner if he is there, and then if you get your guy, if he will actually turn out good. In this unusual year when a Cousins is actaully on the market..you get Cousins if at all possible.

I don't have a dog in this fight but, IF I was in charge and was sitting with pick 21 and 22, Tyrod Taylor under contract, and Kirk Cousins available for only money, you almost have to do what it takes to sign Cousins don't you? You can't possible know in mid March, how the draft will unfold, and you don't know what QB will be available, or if you'd even be able to find a willing trade partner. Cousins is a known quantity. He will cost you 28-30 million, but it's not absurd when viewed from the perspective that QB raises have stayed within the rising cap pretty much....his contract will be high the day he signs it and mid level the day he finishes it. You'd have to ask yourself if you believe what you MIGHT get on draft day, will be better than Cousins is now and in the future.....how can anyone say right now, that is the case? You can't. ....that's why you make the effort for Cousins and only resort to the draft and all that manuevering, scouting, and hoping events fall your way ONLY if you made your best effort to get Cousins and he goes elsewhere.

Ummm....sure HOF players come from all rounds or undrafted...but just like QB's....your percentages of hitting a hall of famer or franchise QB go way up the higher the draft selection. http://www.profootballhof.com/heroes-of-the-game/hall-of-famers-by-draft-round/

I am going purely off that picture. Does that look like a group of folks that are excited about trading up to get Watson? I am sure the sources close to the team all say it was Watson from the beginning....what else would they say after drafting him? Watson has looked really good so far. I am sure they are delighted to have him, as are the Saints to have Lattimore and the Bills to have White. The big loser in all this appears to be the Cleveland Browns....shocking. Second...I really am a guy from Kansas City (who now lives in Ft. Worth, TX) and joined the board to observe over time, how the Bills fanbase sees the trade. I do think it is a bonus that you think I am another guy who apparently isn't here anymore, that had been a big Mahomes supporter. Third. In the short time I have been on this board, I have mentioned this in another thread somewhere, but I really enjoy just the general football talk here, or even just reading about what you all have to say about your team. I joined a Browns board for the same reason, and I often go read Broncos boards and now with smith traded to Washington, I cruise some redskins sites. This place has the best and most inteligent conversations....that includes the Chiefs groups I am a part of. (Kansas City fans are very homerish and don't take well to constructive criticism of the home town team and players) Glad to be here...hope to be here for a good long while if you all can put up with me interjecting here and there.

...yes, I am trolling... This is part of why we thank you so much for the trade. most of us KC fans think we are about to get high end QB play for 2-3% of our cap space for the next 3 seasons. Patrick Mahomes Current Contract Year Age Base Salary (Guaranteed) Bonuses Cap Number Cap % Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension Prorated Roster Workout Other Total $2,400,000 $10,086,152 $3,939,810 $0 $0 $16,425,962 2017 22 $465,000 $465,000 $2,521,538 $0 $0 $0 $2,986,538 1.8% 2018 23 $555,000 $1,211,635 $2,521,538 $656,635 $0 $0 $3,733,173 2.1% $13,439,424 ($9,706,251) 2019 24 $645,000 $1,958,270 $2,521,538 $1,313,270 $0 $0 $4,479,808 2.4% $9,706,251 ($5,226,443) 2020 25 $735,000 $2,704,905 $2,521,538 $1,969,905 $0 $0 $5,226,443 2.6% $5,226,443 $0 Embed This Contract <iframe src="https://overthecap.com/contract-embed/5594/" width="600" height="343" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>

This is the Houston war room when they picked Watson.....lots of reports Mahomes was their guy and that they HAD no choice but to go up and get Watson (reported the owner told them to make it happen) Does anyone besides GM Rick Smith look happy about getting Watson there? That's a war room that is disappointed that Mahomes got sniped in front of them. (On a side note, professional golfer Justin Speith, was a guest in the New Orleans war room, and he flat out said Mahomes was the Saints pick at 11 if he was there)

Considering his injury history and his price tag, I doubt anyone would trade for him, and considering all the dead money involved with cutting him, I don't see us (KC) cutting him. What most folks don't realize about Houston in the 2017 season, was that due to injuries to Eric Berry, lack of LB depth and speed, and really poor CB play opposite Marcus Peters, we literally had Houston drop into coverage almost every play. Houston is a very good all around player, but he isn't being paid all that money to be a coverage LB....Many fans were very unhappy about how he was utilized this season. I would expect he will remain a Chief and will be once again utilized as what he does best, wich is rush the passer. IF he doesn't do well in 2018, they will look to part ways, and next year, they can absorb that cap hit easier if need be.

Now seems like a great time to mention Patrick Mahomes will cost an average of 4 million per season through 2020 and has the fifth year option available to the team in 2021.

I have not. I am a member of a couple of facebook groups for my Chiefs posting activities....I should probalby get on a board so that I can point back at some of what I post more easily. Should I be on that board?

That trade is viewed as "good" so far. Ragland of course was still coming of the injury when he got here (to KC) but got better as season progressed. Had some moments where he flashed, and we could see the potential. We anticipate that he will take a step forward in 2018. It would be a dissapointment if the Ragland we saw this year, is the same one all of next year. We can see why he was a high draft pick as he is noticably faster then what we (KC) had on the field with him....2018 makes or breaks the trade. Liked what we saw..need to see more.

One stop shop for everyone's one the record QB projections. (Yes, I am a CHIEFS fan, but we got our QB last year, and no one in KC wants to speculate on this fun stuff) Josh Allen - BUST. This to me, is the guy who fits all the prototypes and tools and measurables everyone thinks is important, except the part that matters, wich is he isn't accurate. He didn't demostrate in college that he is progressively getting more accurate. Some old school GM's are going to say "wow, look at this big tall kid with the big arm" and think that equates to being a franchise QB. It's not 1977 anymore. You can't win in the NFL with a sub 60% completion percentage and throw 22 picks with 19 INTS. That's what Allen will be. Darnold - HIT. Doesn't have the arm that Mahomes has, but I've seen enough film of him to see he does have an understanding of using his eyes and head to move safeties and identify the target downfiled and "throw him open". I do think he will need some seasoning and will look like garbage his first 16 or so games starting in the NFL. Rosen - MISS. I think the guy has talent, but I put alot into the talk he's not in it for the love of the game, and he is injury prone. Not loving the game and being injury prone means you aren't going all out all the time. He is Jay Cutler. He will alienate too many people but will make some really good plays when he is healthy and trying....I don't see him as a winner. He will frustrate the coaches and fans wherever he ends up...too talented to give up on...too aloof and injured to ever really get you where you need to go. Mayfield - HIT. Johnny Football with all the swagger and none of the drugs. His leadership and high energy are contagious...he'll get his teamates to enthusiastically join in trying to win. The fans will love him and he'll help sell tickets and jerseys. Also, tottally underated quality about him..he is SEASONED. He's started a ton of games in college...that does matter. Reps help. He has progressed every season...completed 71% of passes two years in a row...low INTs. makes plays. So what he is 6'1. In this class, he is my no.1 guy. Lamar Jackson - BUST. While he did progress each year, he's still not a very accurate thrower. He doesn't "win" in the pocket. He's a special COLLEGE player...what a gifted athlete!......but that's it...to me...great athlete..I do not see great NFL QB. This is going to be the guy that starts tumbling down the draft board. My thoughts on some other notables: Mason Rudolph. - Will be better than Josh Allen. I think you put him behind a good line and give him some deep targets....like old school raiders bombs away attack and you have something. Luke Falk. Career backup. Accurate thrower. Not a strong NFL arm. benefited from system he played in. Best to play on team that emphasizes short passing game. I have not seen enough film on any others to make any kind of evaluation...I've heard some like the kid from Virginia...I haven't seen him...can't say. ***Just my worthless KC two cents here*** If I were the Bills, If I could go up for Mayfield or Darnold, I would totally go all in. If I sat at 21 and Rosen fell to me (he won't) I'd do it. Lamar Jackson might fall that far...I'd pass or trade out. If I have missed out on Mayfiled or Darnold, I make sure I don't miss Rudolph, even if I have to use 22 to do it. .....Also.....If I can make the numbers work, and I am sure I can't get Darnold or Mayfield on drat day, I DO, make the push for Cousins. He's proven he can put up numbers with less than optimal talent around him. that matters and it's worth paying for.

No.....it doesn't. It means the Redskins fanbase is about to be bewildered by having a QB who somehow has a good stat sheet, and you can't quite put your finger on the problem for a while. The more observant fans eventually figure out that Smith's stats are sparkling because he is super SAFE with the football and simply will not throw a 50/50 ball to anyone at anytime. All the 3 yard completions and 3 yard runs on 3rd and 8 look like postive plays in a box score, and in your passer rating, but in reality, these are drive killers, momentum killers. You start to see Smith runs from ghosts and the ghosts get scarier as the game gets into more critical stages. The man refuses to let you down by taking a bad sack or a making an awful turnover in the clutch.....and by deliberatly making this effort, he dooms you to a slow death, unwilling to take the slightest chance to make the play you need when you need it. Best of luck to them. Their fan base will divide into the "Alex Smith is great, look at his STATS" camp, and "Alex has flaws that kill us, and don't show up on a stat sheet" camp. He is a curse. Too good to bench, not good enough to get you over the hump. Paid to elevate the roster around him, but needs others around to elevate him. Washington will be 6-10 to 8-8 or so.

Something to consider going forward - If you are a team that doesn't have the "franchise" QB....and getting one of them costs a very lopsided value against your cap vs. the other 52 on your roster, it will not be long now at all, in this QB market, that some of the shrewder teams in the "have not" QB category, will revert to old school ground and pound. Most teams place a premium on pass rushers and DB who have cover skills. A team with no QB could counter the trend with big road graders on the O-line. Get a couple or RB or even three horses. Get some WR who will block, then run at these defenses with undersized defenders and bunches of DB's. The era of the great middle linebackers is long gone and such a team could potentially roll todays defenses into the ground if they built such a team....you get yourself a cheap QB who can run and throw playaction passes, and you could compete without participating in the absurd QB market. You only pay that QB the lopsided contract if he is in fact Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers and you can throw 52 other guys on the field with him that he elevates to being very good every year no matter who they are. In such a market, you could get the best blocking WR's best blocking TE's, revive the FB position and get the best one of those, and your QB would be so much less money because you wouldn't need him to be the focus. Won't surprise me to see two or three teams who don't have a stud try and take advantage of this skewed market in such a way.

Your point about the QB's and Mahomes is a valid one I hadn't fully considered before. I suppose I should have said that Cleveland doesn't see any of them as day 1 starters, and that Washington didn't see any of them, or at least any they could expect to get at 13 or trade up for, to be the long term answer. With Denver in hot pursuit now of Cousins, they are bowing out at 5....I suppose other than Trubisky, who did start day 1, you could say the same for Mahomes, Watson etc...I'm making more of it I guess than there is. Ried will absolutely get another year...he's under contract for something like 5 more years. There will be a good number of pissed off fans if we miss the playoffs...Alex wasn't universally hated here....very large number who would rather KNOW you can go 10-6 again instead of trying to develope the QB.