Zerovoltz

No...I'm Zerovoltz from KC. I'm not Jeffismagic. I don't actually post here that much. I do my actual TROLLING over at Orangemane.com. I enjoy giving Broncos fans crap....I LIKE you folks here. Over there I troll away..they let me join their fantasy leauges.....I drafted Mahomes..won their money...have made and won some other bets with them...and generally just give them crap. https://www.orangemane.com/forum/orange-mane-discussion/orange-mane-central-discussion/20009- My name is Gary. I am originally from KC, but live in the DFW area of texas now. My wife is pretty easy on the eyes. Here is a picture of me and Poncho Billa at the 2018 Draft down here (Jerry Dome) and here is my facebook page.... https://www.facebook.com/gary.hamilton.714

Again....Arizona should keep him.....since they aren't though....and since he is available....in my opinion....he would make the ideal insuarnce policy (INSUARANCE POLICY!) to have in case Allen doesn't become what you hope for. It is rare that such a prospect would be available to have as a hedge in such a case. Jimmy Johnson...who knew what he was doing clearly.....had this same strategy form the beginning of his run with the Cowboys. He gave himself the best odds to have that franchise guy. I can't stress enough...I am not arguing you drafted the wrong Josh....or that Rosen is better. I am NOT making that case here. I am pointing out that this is a very unusual chance to increase your odds to find "the man". Once Allen becomes the man...oyu trade Rosen....or if Allen doesn't, you have Rosen on hand to try. You already know Barclay is NOT the man....Anderson is NOT the man....

I said earlier on in this post somewhere that the Cardinals SHOULD keep him and draft Murray for this very reason. If I was on a Cardinals board, I'd be advocating they hold on to him. ....that would be very similar to the Cowboys taking Aikman then Walsh and keeping both until 1 emerged.

You'd probalby be right....it's only been done 3 times ever....wouldn't be likely he'll top 50 TD again. Brady and Manning only had one 50 TD season in their careers....would be unrealistic to expect Mahomes to do it again...ever.

No. There isn't. (many KC fans are extreme homers...and aren't capable of inteligent or civil discourse.) Yes. I came here after the trade....gloat? eh...probably some....troll....sure...but I've really enjoyed this place...lots of knowledgable passionate fans...I participate in some of the non QB threads here. I am ROOTING for Allen. I want the Bills to have overcome the metrics nerds and for Allen to succeed. I like him....he's fun to watch. He seems like a great kid. It's been interesting to observe and discuss with many of you.... The Cardinals will get a 2nd for him....lots of teams still think he does.

...it doesn't matter that he is CHEAPER...that's just a fact that goes with it....at this point...he still is considered by many to have high end POTENTIAL. That is the point.

If I were the Cards...I'd draft Murray AND KEEP Rosen. They are going to trade him and move on....they view Murray as a generational talent who is better than Rosen.....if you can get a guy who you think can be a generational talent...you get that guy. I really appreciate your viewpoint on this.

If you think Rosen = Barkley or Anderson, then NO...it wouldn't be worth the investment. I would do it for a 2nd because in the case of KC...Rosen > Henne...and cheaper. If god forbid, Mahomes had a career ending injury or somehow busted out...then Rosen would at least be a better chance to become "the man" Henne isn't going to ever be that...Henne, Barkley...those guys are out there every year. Rosen isn't. Rosen may well suck, but as of now, he's still looked at by many (including me) as someone with potential.

You should know by the end of 2019 what you have in Allen. You'd then either move on from Allen or move on from Rosen. He is a cheap insurance policy, that you get cash back on when you don't need him anymore if you don't use him.

I'd be ALL for it! Mahomes could bust an ankle or shoulder in a car wreck...Rosen is cheap and can be had for a 2nd. I'd be ALL GOOD with KC doing this.

I am NOT saying or implying that Rosen is better or that is who you should have drafted. That isn't it. The whole idea is to have someone who isn't a washed up journeyman, on the roster, as insuarance against Allen not developing. Walsh was drafted by Jimmy IN CASE Aikman couldn't cut it. It was an unusual situation that allowed Jimmy Johnson to draft/aquire TWO first round rated QB and have them on his roster at the same time....in case one busted, he had another real chance at having a guy who could get it done. the Bills have that same rare chance if there were to aquire Rosen. This is NOT about who is better! It's about maximizing your odds.

Rosen is available. Mahomes is not available.

You aren't getting my point. I am NOT arguing that Rosen is better than Allen. I am suggesting that he is a high potential guy to have on the roster in case Allen busts....or if Allen wins out and is great, then Rosen, still having not gotten much game action, will be considered to have potential and becomes a nice trade piece. He is the rarest of QB insuarance policies...that is what I am tyring to say.

For the millionth time....if EVERY QB in the NFL had 2 less drops a game, their pct would also be higher. ....By this theory Josh Allen has had the unusual bad luck to have been around nothing but a bunch of butterfingers catching his passes since he was 12 apparently.

I don't know or think that you "got the wrong Josh" they are both unproven high potential prospects at this point. I am advocating to get TWO of those guys on your roster instead of 1.

I think it would be the right thing to do given the circumstances. I lurk around here and post often....I see how much most of you LOVE Josh Allen....and rightfully so...he's an exciting prospect, and your team just make several moves to upgrade the roster around him....and we haven't even gotten to the draft yet....Allen could be everything you all are still hoping for....but IF he doesn't turn out to be that guy....how often does a team ever have a chance to literally stock a BLUE CHIP prospect on the bench as an insurance plan? That is what Rosen could be for you. Allen is NOT a sure thing at all at this point. No matter how you break it down, he's gotta make a staggering improvement on that completion pct. His past suggests that isn't a given.

.....In 1989, Jimmy Johnson, having just drafted Troy Aikman, 1/1, used what ended up being his 1990 first round draft pick in the 1989 Supplemental draft on QB Steve Walsh from the U. Some of you may remember Walsh was a big time college QB at the time. Johnson, when asked why he had done this said that QB was too important to get wrong. He needed to make sure he had one. No one really remembers much about it because Aikman won that competition, went on to win 3 Super Bowls...and Walsh was traded to the Saints for draft picks. ....keep that in mind.... As much as many of you have cherry picked the stats to pieces and conjured up every possible scenario to hide the blight of Josh Allens horrendous 52% completion PCT....the fact is, as exciting and athlietic as he is...Josh Allen is still a major question mark to everyone outside western New York (yes Bills fans...where you see a an ascending future MVP QB, the rest of the country sees a gifted athlete who isn't a good thrower) Rosen is cheap. He can be had for a 2nd round draft pick. While the Bills certainly still have plenty of spots to fill and could use that 2nd to do that....what if you had Rosen on hand in case Josh Allen can't get that Comp % up above 55? What if you had the next blue chip prospect already on your roster and under contract if it turns out you've rebuilt the roster, have all this young talent ready to go, and your QB turns out to be a bust? You wouldn't need to rebuild again...you'd have Rosen ready to go. You might argure making such a move would damage Allens confidence. Maybe it would...but Aikman handled Johnson drafting Walsh, manned up and won that battle. If Allen has the fortitude he's said to posses around here...he'd compete. If Allen did turn out to be what you all are hoping for, Rosen would remain something of an unknown blue chip prospect that had value and could be traded for something useful next year. If the object of having a pro football team is to WIN...then getting QB right is worth making this kind of move. That's why Jimmy did it. Just something to think about....these kind of situations don't come around often.

Jesus Christ. I jumped on this and kept saying Haskins was going 1 overall! Meant Murray, but main point was they were moving on from Rosen. Must have been drunk when I posted. I have “Murray” in all the other spots where I said they’d go QB 1/1.

This would benefit my team (the Cheifs) SUBSTANTIALLY....and I still think it's a horrible idea. If your team has proven itself over the course of 59 minutes or so in an NFL game, it SHOULD BE VERY HARD for the other team to win. Onside kick recoveries are VERY HARD. so be it. What isn't very hard for a team like the Chiefs...is to ask Pat Mahomes to complete a 15 yard pass? With Andy Ried? They'd have 3 or 4 of these drawn up and practiced just for this occasion...and they'd convert this MOST OF THE TIME. If your team has done enough to hold a team like the Chiefs and Mahomes down for 59 minutes and you are on the cusp of victory...do you really want to give the Chiefs an option to score 14 points in 1 minute to wipe out everything you did? Football is fun enough, enteraining enough, high scoring enough and fair enough as it is. we don't need this.

....How much improvement are you expecting? These are all 1st season numbers. Darnold 57.5% L. Jackson 58.2% M Trubisky 59.4% D Watson 61.8% Mayfield 63.8% Allen 52.8% Certainly Trubisky and Watson improved. Trubisky 66.6% That is a nice jump of 7% Watson 68.3% That is also a nice 7% Jump. Trubisky was a 67.5% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up. Watson was a 67.8% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up. 7% is an impressive leap forward...and is really at the high end of what could ever be expected. If Allen were to jump 7%....he'd still be a 59% completion rate NFL QB. That would be a bottom 3 NFL QB. Josh Allen was a 56% thrower over his college career. You are expecting A LOT to happen here. 1. Allen getting a 7% increase as a best case scenario, still leaves him at the bottom of the pack of NFL starters. And......a 7% increase would bring him to a pct that FAR EXCEEDS his college number....also not likely You can tell me 100 different factors that go into Completion %, but ultimately, it's a reasonably good number to look and use to make a judgement.

I've seen this exact argument a 100 times here. I can't put it any better than having you look at Alex Smiths 2017 season. (wich was good) ....With Hill, Kelce and an NFL leading rusher in Kareem Hunt, Smith threw for a career high 26 TD, had a 67 PCT comp % and threw for over 4000 yards. With the SAME supporting cast. Pat Mahomes put up 50 TD, 63 pct Comp % and threw for over 5000 yards. The Chiefs ran exactly NINE more total plays in 2018 than they did in 2017. The offense was the same. The coach was the same....Mahomes executed the whole thing THAT MUCH BETTER. I can get you some GLARING 3rd down conversion stats and some GLARING red zone stats that were also WAY WAY better with Mahomes. And to top it off....if you take Kelces stats away. OR Hills....Mahomes STILL would have led the NFL in TD passes by 5 and still been in the top 10 in yardage. Keep in mind they cut Hunt mid year... He threw at least 1 TD to 12 different targets in 2018. Sure Mahomes has a very good supporting cast.....but I would contend that he elevates WHOEVER he's with out there.

I'm being silly? basically this thread has devolved into A. Any data and theories that support Josh Allen, the data is valid B. Any data and theories that suggest Josh Allen has problems passin a football are not valid.... And since we can't know what Allen is seeing or thinking...we can't know how accurate he is?

? well then why cut Peterman? Only he really knew what the target was! Without that knowledge we can’t really say for sure how accurate any of his throws were!

A fair point. I’m not sure the data backs this up. When you look at QBs who had long careers and played for different teams etc, you can see from year to year they are who they are and that it is in fact NOT about the supporting cast. Look at Randall Cunningham. He had a great year on that 98 Vikings team. Completed 60.9 pct of his passes. He had an incredible supporting cast. Cunningham completed about 60 pct of his passes several seasons in his career, for different teams and coaches. Joe Montana passed for 60.5 in his final two years playing for KC. With crap at WR and TE. He hit 61, 62, 60 in 84, 85 etc with great coaching and an incredible cast around him. I know everyone is highly anticipating a big jump forward from Allen due to the roster upgrades....but data suggests that a QB is a lot more about who he is than who is around him.

Forgive me if I missed it...but if you are going to go to all the trouble to account for every factor that determines "Accuracy" like you are trying to do....have you put any work into watching each play, and looking at the patterns ran, and wich one Allen SHOULD have chosen or what the design was? You've put a great deal of effort into emphasizing that Allen tends to throw further downfield than most (true) and that longer throws are naturally more difficult (also true) and therefore, based on Allen throwing further downfield, we should EXPECT a lower completion pct. This reminds of a the Alex Smith debates we used to have in KC in reverse. Smith had HIGH completion pcts because his depth of target was very shallow and therefore easier, so we would EXPECT a high completion pct. IN BOTH INSTANCES, I submit to you that Smith AND Allen are not being EFFICIENT! It isn't accuracy (or it isn't ONLY) accuracy that is the problem here...I've seen people smarter than me post some breakdowns of plays the Bills ran last year and they point out the design, and where the ball should be going and why...and Allen doesn't make the right choice far too often....he tends to opt to hold it longer and want to throw deeper even when the better play is something less than the deepest route ran. Smith was the opposite...he would opt out of a well schemed route/design with a good target intermediate or deeper, and opt for the lesser play short. Allen is still young and they've improved the roster around him....and some of his can still be coached out of him.....what still bothers me is that when Allen does opt for something shorter....he isn't especially consistent or good at shorter range targets....and that is something I am not sure coaching can fix. Allens running ability can overcome some of this....that helps....but I still claim, as I have from the beginning, that Allen's "accuracy" or efficiency...or both....aren't going to ever be quite good enough to get the Bills where they want to go.