BigDingus

This team can't handle success. It's embarassing.

100% agree! But when they're double digit favorites by Vegas, they usually don't dominate like we all think they should.

True, but there's so much unpredictability regarding the Chargers. Cross-country Road Game New interim HC GM fired Embarassing blowout last week, allowing 60 points to a division rival New QB starting for the 2nd time in his career Chargers could respond in 2 very different ways. Give up under the complete chaos, or try & rebound by clawing back some dignity.

And that's just this year... Experienced Bills fans should know not to look ahead by now. We can only hope the players are thinking the same thing.

Good interview! It sucks knowing Josh hears all that "turnover machine" noise, but we already knew that he's aware of the media/fan discussions. I posted these stats in a comment under this interview, but here they are again: Allen: 37 TDs / 17 turnovers Hurts: 33 TDs / 17 turnovers Mahomes: 25 TDs / 15 turnovers Tua: 25 TDs / 15 turnovers Lawrence: 22 TDs / 16 turnovers Lamar: 22 TDs / 13 turnovers Any coach in the league would take 2 more turnovers in exchange for 12 more TDs, so people need to have some perspective. Purdy & Dak are the only 2 that really stand out though. Purdy: 31 TDs / 9 turnovers Dak: 30 TDs / 8 turnovers If the Bills didn't choke to the Pats, have 12 men on the field vs the Broncos, & didn't allow 24 points in the 4th/OT vs the Eagles, the Bills being at 11-3 or even 10-4 would likely have Josh as an MVP frontrunner right now 🥺

Bumping this, just to see how my worst case scenario (but still making the playoffs) plays out. My initial idea was to see how the Bills could make the playoffs, even if they lost to the Cowboys AND lost to the Dolphins in week 18, all while not predicting any stupid upsets. Everything I played out exactly as needed, but since the Bills won, we're already ahead of schedule! Here's what I had for this week: Week 16: -Bills def. Chargers -Bengals def. Steelers (again, the Steelers could win & this still works) -Browns def. Texans -Colts def. Falcons -Dolphins def. Cowboys -Broncos def. Patriots Note: Made sure to give the Dolphins the win to ensure they win the East either way. Texans could definitely beat the Browns, but it's a toss up. ************* Even though I had written the Steelers or Bengals could win this week, it's definitely better to see the Bengals lose just for the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Cowboys win, this whole thing becomes WAY better though 😁

Hopefully, but how long will he be able to continue running the ball like he does now? He can probably get 200-300 per year even as he gets older, but definitely not being as physical as he is now. Most QBs don't play until they're 45 like Brady, and even less manage to still be starters at that point. People are talking about how crazy it is Flacco is back as a starter, but he's "only" 38. Rodgers is now 40, but no other starter is even close. I think Stafford is the oldest at 35, so Josh probably has a few more years of running like a mad man before having to transition into more of a pocket QB to prolong his career.

Wtf... Mahomes is already #39 all time passing TDs?! I get that it's more of a passing league now, but with all the countless QBs to play over the many, many decades, I guess I'm surprised anyone would crack the top 40 in 6 seasons as a starter. Josh at #2 in QB rushing TDs is awesome though! It's crazy that he actually hasn't had that many rushing yards this season, but already has his most rushing TDs (11) with 3 games to go. Just needs to average 9 TDs for 3 more years & he'll beat Cam's record!

So 4 out of the last 5 seasons, the Bills had a top 5 defense in either YPG or PPG (or both). 2023: #4 PPG / #11 YPG 2022: #2 PPG / #6 YPG 2021: #1 PPG / #1 YPG 2020: #16 PPG / #14 YPG 2019: #2 PPG / #3 YPG Games against top offenses each season: 2023: * Win vs Dolphins (#1 PPG / #1 YPG) - allowed 20 points & 393 yards (4 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Loss vs Eagles (#7 PPG / #9 YPG) - allowed 37 points & 378 yards (2 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Win vs Chiefs (#10 PPG / #8 YPG) - allowed 17 points & 346 yards (1 sack, 2 turnovers) *Win vs Cowboys (#2 PPG / #6 YPG) - allowed 10 points & 195 yards (3 sacks, 1 turnover) Average: 21 PPG / 328 YPG / 2.5 sacks / 1.8 turnovers (PPG good enough for 14th overall, YPG good for 16th) 2022: * Loss vs Dolphins (#11 PPG / #6 YPG) - allowed 21 points & 212 yards (2 sacks, 0 turnovers) * Win vs Dolphins - allowed 29 points & 405 yards (2 sacks, 0 turnovers) * Win vs Dolphins - allowed 31 points & 231 yards (4 sacks, 2 turnovers) *Tua Out* * Win vs Chiefs (#1 PPG/ #1 YPG) - allowed 20 points & 387 yards (3 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Loss vs Vikings (#8 PPG / #7 YPG) - allowed 33 points & 481 yards (4 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Win vs Detroit (#5 PPG / #4 PPG) - allowed 25 points & 326 yards (2 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Loss vs Bengals (#7 PPG / #8 YPG) - allowed 27 points & 412 yards (1 sack, 0 turnovers) Average: 26.6 PPG / 351 YPG / 2.5 sacks / 1.1 turnover (PPG would've been good enough for 31st overall, YPG good for 22nd) 2021: * Win vs Chiefs (#4 PPG / #3 YPG) - allowed 20 points & 392 yards (2 sacks, 4 turnovers) * Loss vs Colts (#9 PPG / #16 PPG) - allowed 41 points & 370 yards (0 sacks, 0 turnovers) * Loss vs Bucs (#2 PPG / #2 YPG) - allowed 33 points & 488 yards (2 sacks, 0 turnovers) Average: 31.3 PPG / 416 YPG / 1.3 sacks / 1.3 turnovers (PPG would've been good enough for LAST overall, YPG also LAST) 2019: * Loss vs Pats (#7 PPG / #15 YPG) - allowed 16 points & 224 yards (0 sacks, 1 turnover) * Loss vs Pats - allowed 24 points & 414 yards (0 sacks, 1 turnover) * Win vs Cowboys (#6 PPG / #1 YPG) - allowed 15 points & 426 yards (4 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Loss vs Ravens (#1 PPG / #2 YPG) - allowed 24 points & 257 yards (1 sack, 1 turnover) Average: 19.8 PPG / 330 YPG / 1.3 sacks / 1.3 turnovers (PPG would've been good enough for 10th overall, YPG also 10th) Overall, it looks like the 2023 Bills play pretty well against good offenses. Seeing your defense allow more points & yards against better offenses is to be expected, but 2023 is the lowest amount we've allowed since 2019. Granted, offenses all around are averaging less production this year, so we're not ranked quite as well as 2019. McDermott isn't completely locking down the best offenses, but he's doing better than Frazier for the most part. Defense is also getting more turnovers & sacks in those games, so that's a plus too!

Seems like your typical "trap game," though I know some people don't believe in that concept. Bills also haven't defeated the Chargers on the road since the 80's, or at least I heard that somewhere & am too lazy to confirm 😅 If the offense is well-balanced & commits to the run, it could mitigate a lot of the risk. If we try & air it out, there's more chances for Josh turnovers or WR drops stalling drives. And as is typical with those types of games, undisciplined play & penalties tend to start piling up to compound the situation. But hopefully, all the above is just PTSD from an overly experienced Bills fan! 🤞 Result: Bills 27 - 16

I'd vote CMC or possibly Tyreek. CMC needs no explaination, but Tyreek was so good, it made people suddenly start talking about TUA as an MVP candidate last year... He's been on of the most impactful trade acquisitions in ages. A few years ago, I thought Cooper Kupp could've been MVP over Rodgers, but Tyreek makes a good case for a WR MVP too. That being said, I'd hate to see a Dolphins player win MVP, so screw him...

Ok, that looks miserable, yet the shameless, low-standard demon inside of me still wants to dig in... I swear, almost any form of chicken, no matter how terribly prepared or beaten up, looks somewhat appetizing to me if it's got traditional Buffalo sauce on it.

I've been corrupted... used to be all about naked wings only, but recently I've found myself enjoying breaded every now & then. Even worse, it was crappy Hooters wings that started this recent change to the dark side... A friend had a bunch of wings from Hooters at his place, and I was hungry enough to grab some. Despite being delivered, they still tasted crispy & hot, and I'm a sucker for that traditional Buffalo sauce smell. Ever since then, I've found myself flip flopping between naked & breaded. I may need to hang up my Buffalo card... If I ever start dipping in ranch, I'll be forced to become a Phins fan as punishment 🤢🤮

I'm not buying that Dorsey was the main reason either, though I do agree he didn't help. Pre-firing, everyone was pointing out the long history of McDermott coaching blunders, saying he was running out of bodies to throw under the bus for his mistakes. Never had it been more clear than after the Broncos game, where 12 men on the field allowed the another FG attempt to steal the win. Dorsey's offense looked inept, but it was another game blown by the defensive side of the ball. Even after the OC change, the Eagles game showed us that same issue again. Though we're riding high now, this team had similar issues even with Daboll as OC. Josh being 0-7 in OT isn't normal, or the equally bad record in 1 score games. And remember the posts in the gameday thread as the game started? People couldn't believe how easy the defense was getting carved up. The offense falling apart in the snow was nothing new, but it seeing a top ranked defense choke so bad was embarrassing. Now I do feel the inability to run hurt, but the Bengals had no issue passing all over the place. They looked great in the snow & on the road, Allen looked lost & we couldn't run to help. But that was a huge issue due to inferior OL imo. We have a lot of the same guys, but this is the first year they've all stayed on the field together nearly all year! The additions, their overall health, and the improved play (Spencer Brown especially), give us a much better chance. Let's be real though, Allen wasn't very good either. He wasn't good in the Miami WC, and he was struggling for weeks before that. The Bengals game was a total failure from all levels. The HC, the OC, the OL, the defense, the injuries and yes, even the QB. Hopefully this year will be different, but we still have to sustain this level of play & get into the playoffs in the first place. Take it one game at a time, and don't overlook ANY opponent.

I mean, he definitely flops, but you gotta take what you can get! Considering how many hits he takes & how many calls don't go our way, if someone gives you a little shove, may as well fall to the ground & see what happens! 😆 The only thing that looks kinda bad is the motioning for a flag before he even falls (or yesterday pointing to his helmet when his head didn't even get touched). Outside of that, keep it up!

There were surprisingly a lot of ways the Bills could've made the playoffs at 10-7 & not winning the division, but adding any more conference losses in the next 2 weeks would really hurt.

So the Week 15 playoff scenario I predicted that would still allow the Bills to make the 7th seed played out nearly perfect. I was trying to predict worst case scenarios that still allow us a path without winning the division, but we're already ahead of schedule with a win today! Week 15: -Cowboys def. Bills ❌ -Bengals def. vs Vikings ✅ -Colts def. vs Steelers ✅ -Lions def. Broncos ✅ -Texans def. Titans ✅ -Browns def. Bears ✅ -Dolphins def. Jets ✅ Now the Bills just need to take care of business against the teams they're expected to beat, and things are looking very good.

WHO WAS THIS TEAM?! I don't think I've been more impressed with a win in the entire Josh Allen era! Sure, Josh has had some amazing games, but to see this pass-happy team buckle down & establish they're going to run all over the NFC #1 seed (before this game)? That was absolutely INSANE. I don't think anyone expected to win like THAT 😂

If the idea is to control the clock & run it down their throats, Gabe is our best asset at WR to accomplish that. I'm cool with the 0 receptions at this point, as he's fulfilling his role elsewhere.

Even if we lose tomorrow & the Dolphins still take the division, we will have a really good shot of making it at 10-7 with 3 x additional conference wins. That's awesome! I just don't have much faith the Bills will finish the season with 5 straight wins (in a stretch against the Chiefs, Cowboys & Dolphins), but there are still plenty of ways if we slip up.

Just Just wanted to say, my very reasonable playoff scenario is off to a good start 😉

But I'm saying in the scenario I referenced, i handicapped the Bills a lot. The point was that within that setup, many things are way more likely to go BETTER than that. That's a bad outcome, where very few things go right for us. If any of those teams lose more than once, it's even easier than my scenario. Some of those games don't even require a specific winner and get easier week to week. I was planning for bad outcomes that still allow us to sneak in, not perfect scenarios where everything falls into place.

Whew, there's so many. But here's one pretty simple one: Week 15: -Cowboys def. Bills -Bengals def. vs Vikings -Colts def. vs Steelers (though Steelers could win & we still get 7th seed in this scenario) -Lions def. Broncos -Texans def. Titans -Browns def. Bears -Dolphins def. Jets Note: This is about as bad for us as possible, with the exception of Lions defeating the Broncos (but that's a very realistic possibility) Week 16: -Bills def. Chargers -Bengals def. Steelers (again, the Steelers could win & this still works) -Browns def. Texans -Colts def. Falcons -Dolphins def. Cowboys -Broncos def. Patriots Note: Made sure to give the Dolphins the win to ensure they win the East either way. Texans could definitely beat the Browns, but it's a toss up Week 17: -Bills def. Patriots -Browns def. Jets -Colts def. Raiders (though Raiders could win & it still works) -Seahawks def. Steelers -Texans def. Titans -Chiefs def. Bengals -Broncos def. Chargers Note: All of these seem pretty likely, barring an upset Week 18: -Bills def. Dolphins (we still lose division) -Ravens def. Steelers -Browns def. Bengals -Colts def. Texans -Broncos def. Raiders Final Note: If Texans win at this point, they get in over us. Same if the Bengals beat the Browns. However, if either team lost a previous game I predicted them to win, we'd still be in. Relevant Records/Playoff Seeds: 1. Ravens (13-4) 2. Chiefs (12-5) 3. Jaguars (11-6) 4. Dolphins (11-6) 5. Browns (12-5) <<<< See Note 6. Denver (10-7) 7. Bills (10-7) ***************** 8. Colts (10-7) 9. Bengals (9-8) 10. Texans (9-8) 11. Steelers (8-9) Note: Browns at 12-5 isn't what's relevant. The only thing that kicks the Bills out in this scenario is if 3 x AFC North teams finish at 10-7 or better. Hell, they can all have winning records, but as long as there's only 2 with 10-7+ records, Bills still make it here. Here's a link (sorry it's huge): https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547600~2~401547604~1~401547607~2~401547606~1~401547594~1~401547595~2~401547598~2~401547599~2~401547605~1~401547603~2~401547608~2~401547596~2~401547597~1~401547602~2~401547601~2~401547611~2~401547626~1~401547639~1~401547647~2~401547610~2~401547609~1~401547612~2~401547613~2~401547614~2~401547616~2~401547617~2~401547622~1~401547241~1~401547351~1~401547621~1~401547620~1~401547619~1~401547618~2~401547615~2~401547623~1~401547624~1~401547625~1~401547627~2~401547628~1~401547629~1~401547631~1~401547630~1~401547637~1~401547235~1~401547636~1~401547632~2~401547633~1~401547634~1~401547635~2~401547638~2~401547646~2~401547641~2~401547648~2~401547640~2~401547642~1~401547650~2~401547651~1~401547643~1~401547644~1~401547652~2~401547645~2~401547653~2

I totally agree. However, I didn't do anything silly like having the Bears beat the Browns or Bengals losing to the Vikings, unless out of curiosity (like my scenario 2 with the Browns going 0-4). The scenarios I mentioned weren't relying on that stuff, hence why I said I was trying to check worst case scenarios. Wouldn't be very useful if I was relying on almost impossible upsets. Scenario 3 is very realistic though. Again, I tried to give each team as many wins as possible, then only messed with the weekly matchups of those teams against relevant opponents. Giving the Bengals, Texans, Colts, Broncos etc. 3 x more wins AND giving the Dolphins the division isn't me relying on upsets. It's handicapping us.

I've just been focusing on less perfect scenarios, looking at ways beyond going on a 5 win streak to close the season. Some other scenarios include: Scenario 1 - Bills lose to the Cowboys and Dolphins. There's still a lot of ways the Bills could make the playoffs, mainly because a lot of the 7-6 teams play each other. Scenario 2 - Bills beat the Cowboys, but inexplicably lose a game to the Chargers OR Patriots, as well as the Dolphins. Pretty similar to Scenario 1, though a Browns collapse gave me way more results with the Bills making it in. Scenario 3 (BEST) - Bills lose to the Cowboys, but go on to win their next 3 games. Aside from winning out, this is the option that offers the most flexibility (shocker, 3 wins is better than 2 wins). After messing with the playoff simulator for what feels like millions of hours, you get a ton of ways the Bills make it in. You could have all 4 NFC North teams finish above .500, Dolphins still take the AFC East, plus both the Jags & Texans getting in, and the Bills at 10-7 would still make it in under most scenarios. As long as the Broncos *OR* Texans lose 2 x games, 10 wins is VERY LIKELY to get the Bills in. If not, teams like the Colts, Texans, Broncos and the Browns *OR* Bengals *OR* Steelers all finish 10-7, the Bills get in. We just couldn't have 3 x teams in the AFC North at 10-7 or better (in this scenario). Thankfully, a lot of these 7-6 teams play each other to close the year. Week 15: Steelers at Colts Week 16: Bengals at Steelers / Browns at Texans Week 17: Bengals at Chiefs (even if the Bills finish 9-8, a Chiefs win here with the rest of the matchups could still get us in with the first 2 scenarios) Week 18: Browns at Bengals / Texans at Colts Note: One game to really watch is week 18 Steelers at Ravens. If the Ravens & Chiefs both keep winning, Baltimore may be resting starters here, which could really hurt us.