BigDingus

If you look at the game to game stats, the defense has been really good. The games we lose happen to be games the offense turns the ball over a ton, putting the defense in a bad situation & hoping they bail us out.

Well naturally, the next step is to just drive over & show up on her doorstep right? Just keep ringing the doorbell in case she's asleep. I promise you she'll appreciate it!

No, this is a "Bills turn the ball over way too much," and "It's not playcalling/coaches/defense choking" thread. Allen's not the only guy on this team turning the ball over. He's one of the few QBs that can't seem to go 2 games in a row without throwing an INT, but that's not the point. Look at the stats, and you quickly see why we lose/struggle against "Bad" teams. Nearly lost to the abysmal Giants (with Tyrod Taylor) Nearly lost to the abysmal Chargers (without Herbert or Keenan Allen, the week after the awful Raiders hung 60 points on them) Lost to the Jets & Zach Wilson) Lost to the abysmal Patriots & Mac Jones Lost to the mediocre Broncos at home All because we keep spotting these teams a ton of extra opportunities. When we protect the football, suddenly we average 14 more points per game & blow people out! Crazy, I know. I don't care if Josh wins MVP, I prefer to watch the Bills succeed in the playoffs. Purdy or CMC are winning anyway, so I just want to see this team not fail in January again.

We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most. I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results: Won Turnover Battle: *WIN vs Raiders (38-10): Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6): Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT) *LOSS vs Eagles (34-37): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Chiefs (20-17): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT) 1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential 2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts 3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg) Lost/Tied Turnover Battle: *LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2 *WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0 *LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0 *LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1 *WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) 1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential 2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory 3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG) 4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception) Final Thoughts: 1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS. 2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball... 4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway 5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION 6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears. 7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined.

Let's not downplay 3 turnovers vs the Chargers 0 turnovers... It's hard enough to win on the road, and even harder with such a huge turnover differential. When you keep giving opponents extra drives & losing your own, it's more on the players than coaching.

Is it that hard for an NFL QB to string together 2 games without an INT? I just can't accept that this is ok...

This team can't handle success. It's embarassing.

100% agree! But when they're double digit favorites by Vegas, they usually don't dominate like we all think they should.

True, but there's so much unpredictability regarding the Chargers. Cross-country Road Game New interim HC GM fired Embarassing blowout last week, allowing 60 points to a division rival New QB starting for the 2nd time in his career Chargers could respond in 2 very different ways. Give up under the complete chaos, or try & rebound by clawing back some dignity.

And that's just this year... Experienced Bills fans should know not to look ahead by now. We can only hope the players are thinking the same thing.

Good interview! It sucks knowing Josh hears all that "turnover machine" noise, but we already knew that he's aware of the media/fan discussions. I posted these stats in a comment under this interview, but here they are again: Allen: 37 TDs / 17 turnovers Hurts: 33 TDs / 17 turnovers Mahomes: 25 TDs / 15 turnovers Tua: 25 TDs / 15 turnovers Lawrence: 22 TDs / 16 turnovers Lamar: 22 TDs / 13 turnovers Any coach in the league would take 2 more turnovers in exchange for 12 more TDs, so people need to have some perspective. Purdy & Dak are the only 2 that really stand out though. Purdy: 31 TDs / 9 turnovers Dak: 30 TDs / 8 turnovers If the Bills didn't choke to the Pats, have 12 men on the field vs the Broncos, & didn't allow 24 points in the 4th/OT vs the Eagles, the Bills being at 11-3 or even 10-4 would likely have Josh as an MVP frontrunner right now 🥺

Bumping this, just to see how my worst case scenario (but still making the playoffs) plays out. My initial idea was to see how the Bills could make the playoffs, even if they lost to the Cowboys AND lost to the Dolphins in week 18, all while not predicting any stupid upsets. Everything I played out exactly as needed, but since the Bills won, we're already ahead of schedule! Here's what I had for this week: Week 16: -Bills def. Chargers -Bengals def. Steelers (again, the Steelers could win & this still works) -Browns def. Texans -Colts def. Falcons -Dolphins def. Cowboys -Broncos def. Patriots Note: Made sure to give the Dolphins the win to ensure they win the East either way. Texans could definitely beat the Browns, but it's a toss up. ************* Even though I had written the Steelers or Bengals could win this week, it's definitely better to see the Bengals lose just for the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Cowboys win, this whole thing becomes WAY better though 😁

Hopefully, but how long will he be able to continue running the ball like he does now? He can probably get 200-300 per year even as he gets older, but definitely not being as physical as he is now. Most QBs don't play until they're 45 like Brady, and even less manage to still be starters at that point. People are talking about how crazy it is Flacco is back as a starter, but he's "only" 38. Rodgers is now 40, but no other starter is even close. I think Stafford is the oldest at 35, so Josh probably has a few more years of running like a mad man before having to transition into more of a pocket QB to prolong his career.

Wtf... Mahomes is already #39 all time passing TDs?! I get that it's more of a passing league now, but with all the countless QBs to play over the many, many decades, I guess I'm surprised anyone would crack the top 40 in 6 seasons as a starter. Josh at #2 in QB rushing TDs is awesome though! It's crazy that he actually hasn't had that many rushing yards this season, but already has his most rushing TDs (11) with 3 games to go. Just needs to average 9 TDs for 3 more years & he'll beat Cam's record!

So 4 out of the last 5 seasons, the Bills had a top 5 defense in either YPG or PPG (or both). 2023: #4 PPG / #11 YPG 2022: #2 PPG / #6 YPG 2021: #1 PPG / #1 YPG 2020: #16 PPG / #14 YPG 2019: #2 PPG / #3 YPG Games against top offenses each season: 2023: * Win vs Dolphins (#1 PPG / #1 YPG) - allowed 20 points & 393 yards (4 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Loss vs Eagles (#7 PPG / #9 YPG) - allowed 37 points & 378 yards (2 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Win vs Chiefs (#10 PPG / #8 YPG) - allowed 17 points & 346 yards (1 sack, 2 turnovers) *Win vs Cowboys (#2 PPG / #6 YPG) - allowed 10 points & 195 yards (3 sacks, 1 turnover) Average: 21 PPG / 328 YPG / 2.5 sacks / 1.8 turnovers (PPG good enough for 14th overall, YPG good for 16th) 2022: * Loss vs Dolphins (#11 PPG / #6 YPG) - allowed 21 points & 212 yards (2 sacks, 0 turnovers) * Win vs Dolphins - allowed 29 points & 405 yards (2 sacks, 0 turnovers) * Win vs Dolphins - allowed 31 points & 231 yards (4 sacks, 2 turnovers) *Tua Out* * Win vs Chiefs (#1 PPG/ #1 YPG) - allowed 20 points & 387 yards (3 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Loss vs Vikings (#8 PPG / #7 YPG) - allowed 33 points & 481 yards (4 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Win vs Detroit (#5 PPG / #4 PPG) - allowed 25 points & 326 yards (2 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Loss vs Bengals (#7 PPG / #8 YPG) - allowed 27 points & 412 yards (1 sack, 0 turnovers) Average: 26.6 PPG / 351 YPG / 2.5 sacks / 1.1 turnover (PPG would've been good enough for 31st overall, YPG good for 22nd) 2021: * Win vs Chiefs (#4 PPG / #3 YPG) - allowed 20 points & 392 yards (2 sacks, 4 turnovers) * Loss vs Colts (#9 PPG / #16 PPG) - allowed 41 points & 370 yards (0 sacks, 0 turnovers) * Loss vs Bucs (#2 PPG / #2 YPG) - allowed 33 points & 488 yards (2 sacks, 0 turnovers) Average: 31.3 PPG / 416 YPG / 1.3 sacks / 1.3 turnovers (PPG would've been good enough for LAST overall, YPG also LAST) 2019: * Loss vs Pats (#7 PPG / #15 YPG) - allowed 16 points & 224 yards (0 sacks, 1 turnover) * Loss vs Pats - allowed 24 points & 414 yards (0 sacks, 1 turnover) * Win vs Cowboys (#6 PPG / #1 YPG) - allowed 15 points & 426 yards (4 sacks, 2 turnovers) * Loss vs Ravens (#1 PPG / #2 YPG) - allowed 24 points & 257 yards (1 sack, 1 turnover) Average: 19.8 PPG / 330 YPG / 1.3 sacks / 1.3 turnovers (PPG would've been good enough for 10th overall, YPG also 10th) Overall, it looks like the 2023 Bills play pretty well against good offenses. Seeing your defense allow more points & yards against better offenses is to be expected, but 2023 is the lowest amount we've allowed since 2019. Granted, offenses all around are averaging less production this year, so we're not ranked quite as well as 2019. McDermott isn't completely locking down the best offenses, but he's doing better than Frazier for the most part. Defense is also getting more turnovers & sacks in those games, so that's a plus too!

Seems like your typical "trap game," though I know some people don't believe in that concept. Bills also haven't defeated the Chargers on the road since the 80's, or at least I heard that somewhere & am too lazy to confirm 😅 If the offense is well-balanced & commits to the run, it could mitigate a lot of the risk. If we try & air it out, there's more chances for Josh turnovers or WR drops stalling drives. And as is typical with those types of games, undisciplined play & penalties tend to start piling up to compound the situation. But hopefully, all the above is just PTSD from an overly experienced Bills fan! 🤞 Result: Bills 27 - 16

I'd vote CMC or possibly Tyreek. CMC needs no explaination, but Tyreek was so good, it made people suddenly start talking about TUA as an MVP candidate last year... He's been on of the most impactful trade acquisitions in ages. A few years ago, I thought Cooper Kupp could've been MVP over Rodgers, but Tyreek makes a good case for a WR MVP too. That being said, I'd hate to see a Dolphins player win MVP, so screw him...

Ok, that looks miserable, yet the shameless, low-standard demon inside of me still wants to dig in... I swear, almost any form of chicken, no matter how terribly prepared or beaten up, looks somewhat appetizing to me if it's got traditional Buffalo sauce on it.

I've been corrupted... used to be all about naked wings only, but recently I've found myself enjoying breaded every now & then. Even worse, it was crappy Hooters wings that started this recent change to the dark side... A friend had a bunch of wings from Hooters at his place, and I was hungry enough to grab some. Despite being delivered, they still tasted crispy & hot, and I'm a sucker for that traditional Buffalo sauce smell. Ever since then, I've found myself flip flopping between naked & breaded. I may need to hang up my Buffalo card... If I ever start dipping in ranch, I'll be forced to become a Phins fan as punishment 🤢🤮

I'm not buying that Dorsey was the main reason either, though I do agree he didn't help. Pre-firing, everyone was pointing out the long history of McDermott coaching blunders, saying he was running out of bodies to throw under the bus for his mistakes. Never had it been more clear than after the Broncos game, where 12 men on the field allowed the another FG attempt to steal the win. Dorsey's offense looked inept, but it was another game blown by the defensive side of the ball. Even after the OC change, the Eagles game showed us that same issue again. Though we're riding high now, this team had similar issues even with Daboll as OC. Josh being 0-7 in OT isn't normal, or the equally bad record in 1 score games. And remember the posts in the gameday thread as the game started? People couldn't believe how easy the defense was getting carved up. The offense falling apart in the snow was nothing new, but it seeing a top ranked defense choke so bad was embarrassing. Now I do feel the inability to run hurt, but the Bengals had no issue passing all over the place. They looked great in the snow & on the road, Allen looked lost & we couldn't run to help. But that was a huge issue due to inferior OL imo. We have a lot of the same guys, but this is the first year they've all stayed on the field together nearly all year! The additions, their overall health, and the improved play (Spencer Brown especially), give us a much better chance. Let's be real though, Allen wasn't very good either. He wasn't good in the Miami WC, and he was struggling for weeks before that. The Bengals game was a total failure from all levels. The HC, the OC, the OL, the defense, the injuries and yes, even the QB. Hopefully this year will be different, but we still have to sustain this level of play & get into the playoffs in the first place. Take it one game at a time, and don't overlook ANY opponent.

I mean, he definitely flops, but you gotta take what you can get! Considering how many hits he takes & how many calls don't go our way, if someone gives you a little shove, may as well fall to the ground & see what happens! 😆 The only thing that looks kinda bad is the motioning for a flag before he even falls (or yesterday pointing to his helmet when his head didn't even get touched). Outside of that, keep it up!

There were surprisingly a lot of ways the Bills could've made the playoffs at 10-7 & not winning the division, but adding any more conference losses in the next 2 weeks would really hurt.

So the Week 15 playoff scenario I predicted that would still allow the Bills to make the 7th seed played out nearly perfect. I was trying to predict worst case scenarios that still allow us a path without winning the division, but we're already ahead of schedule with a win today! Week 15: -Cowboys def. Bills ❌ -Bengals def. vs Vikings ✅ -Colts def. vs Steelers ✅ -Lions def. Broncos ✅ -Texans def. Titans ✅ -Browns def. Bears ✅ -Dolphins def. Jets ✅ Now the Bills just need to take care of business against the teams they're expected to beat, and things are looking very good.

WHO WAS THIS TEAM?! I don't think I've been more impressed with a win in the entire Josh Allen era! Sure, Josh has had some amazing games, but to see this pass-happy team buckle down & establish they're going to run all over the NFC #1 seed (before this game)? That was absolutely INSANE. I don't think anyone expected to win like THAT 😂

If the idea is to control the clock & run it down their throats, Gabe is our best asset at WR to accomplish that. I'm cool with the 0 receptions at this point, as he's fulfilling his role elsewhere.