Shaw66

Beane could do anything but he's shown he's prone to trading up, not down. The Bills aren't going to keep 11 rookies, for sure, so unloading some picks is essential. Trading back compounds the problem. I expect another trade up, like last season, to get a solid starter they really like. Not ahuge move - they don't have the capital for that - but two three or four spots.

And the TDs are of little concern to me, at least not yet. TDs don't happen all that often, relative to receptions, so a statistical variation in TDs per reception is not uncommon. Davis caught four TDs in one game. That didn't mean Davis was great; it just meant in that game, against that defensive scheme, Allen was finding Davis. Plus, as I said earlier, I think red zone scoring has a lot to do with how well the QB and receiver communicate. Diggs has had a lot of red zone success, and Beasley did, too, and both were based on their communication with Allen. The spaces are tight, the timing is critical, and the receiver's understanding of how the defense works also is critical. I think we'll see Kincaid improve in that area. Kelce went 5-5-4 TDs in his first three years playing. When he got older, and when Mahomes arrived, is when his TD production went up.

Thanks for this. I don't know anything about strength building and conditioning, so I certainly won't argue with anything you say here. My comments were based only on my impressions looking at the guy. He seems a little undersized for a tight end. Now, of course, his current size allows him to be more mobile than the average tight end, so I don't know if added weight would make him less effective. Knox isn't your quintessential blocking tight end, but he has a body that seems to be more of the prototype for modern tight ends, and I think it might help Kincaid to build himself up to be at least a bit more like Knox. I also think a lot of guys come out of college not having built their strength particularly well. Linemen, particularly, often get to the NFL needing a year or two of learning technique and body building. I don't know for a fact, but I think there's a big difference between the programs that Alabama, Ohio State and a few other schools run and the programs run by a lot of the other schools. Kincaid walked on at San Diego State after being primarily a basketball player, and transferred to Utah, which is a nice program but not elite. So, I wouldn't be surprised if pro weight trainers in Orchard Park looked at him concluded that they could put him on a program that might add weight, or at least redistribute it, and build strength. They didn't have time to do that in his rookie year; this off-season was the first window they had. As for Kelce, well, every player is different. However, according to listed weights, Kelce carries the ten pounds that I think Kincaid might add. Bottom line for me is that I don't worry about it. The Bills and Kincaid will figure out what they think is best for him, and he'll work himself into the condition, including weight and strength, that they think is best.

I used to believe that take, too. I think it was true, but I think as the team has grown, things have changed. One thing McDermott and Beane said when they got here, something that I didn't understand, and I still don't understand, is that as players learn the system and come back for year two, they play at higher level and learn more. Collectively, the team's intelligence and understanding of the system grows from year to year. There is a team learning curve, and somehow the veterans pull the newcomers up the curve, so that things it took Poyer and Hyde years to learn, for example, are learned by Hamlin and the like in a year or two. I don't understand how that works, but it apparently does. The result is that when the team was playing at a lower level, it was harder for rookies to get into the lineup, because the veterans were still working their own way up the learning curve. Now that the team has matured, it gets easier. to pull guys along. So, Kincaid and Torrence both walked into camp and pretty quickly were able to play with the vets. It's what we saw with the Patriots. Year after year, some guy would get injured for the Patriots and some rookie you've never heard of would move into the lineup and play just fine. Why? Because Belichick's system somehow worked to have the vets pull the rookies up to their level. It's a beautiful thing.

I have a lot of confidence in Beane and McDermott in player selection. They have a very good understanding of the kind of players they need at each position, and they do a good job at figuring out which available players fit. (That's what's so shocking about Elam.) I think they knew exactly what they were getting in Kincaid and how they were going to use him. I think people who thought he would be below 500 yards misperceived how good McDermott and Beane are at this. Receivers don't have huge trouble transitioning from college to the pros, so it was more or less a no-brainer that Kincaid would play a lot and catch a lot of balls. That's what they got him for, and they knew he could do it. As I said in the other thread, I think he needs to bulk up a bit. Mostly what I think he needs to improve is his route running, particularly as plays break down. I mean, he runs all those short routes pretty nicely, but he still has work to do connecting with Allen. The guys who play close to the QB - the tight ends and slot guys - can become really valuable when they develop a high level of communication with the QB, like we see with Kelce and Mahomes, and like we saw with Allen and Beasley. I think Kincaid has more to learn and will benefit from another year with Allen. I also think he'll benefit if Brady is as creative as we hope.

I think you can make the case that the Bills could play the season (barring injury) with guys currently on the roster, but I don't think the 22 starters actually are on the roster. In the first place, it's quite likely that their first and second round picks will start, if not in September, at least by November. Just off the top of my head, I'd say this: Maybe the DT starters, technically, are on the roster (Jones and Oliver), but the rotation guys are like starters, and I'd guess there's another DT coming, and an edge. I think a starting safety is coming, somehow (unless my theory about Taron Johnson moving turns out to be correct, in which case the safeties are on the roster, but one of the three starting corners is not). I don't think the starting wideout is on the roster. I just don't see the Bills going with Diggs-Samuels-Shakir. Maybe Shorter comes out of nowhere, but I doubt it. There might be a guard who shows up. Whether all those guess are right, I don't know. Only one of them has to be right to prove that all the starters are not yet on the roster.

Alabama is where you go to find late-round picks and undrafted free agents. They recruit more of the best athletes in the country than almost anyone.

I say you've taken an overly pessimistic view, in several respects. He had 670 yards in receptions, which was right around where I expected him to be. That's a nice total for a rookie, especially for a tight end. A rookie wideout who starts has an opportunity for some chunk plays that a tight end doesn't get. So, I'd say his production was pretty good, and I expect it will improve. Next, I'd say that "he rarely broke tackles" is unfair. A large number of his catches were essentially dumpoffs over the middle where he was surrounded by defenders. He's not a big guy who's going to drag those tacklers. Still, he always goes down going forward, and he gets just about all the yards he can. He had several plays where he made a move to avoid a tackler and get extra yards, and in particularly he made several to get the first down. He's not a great open field runner, but he gets ahead in space before he goes down. Drops. I agree about that. He's excellent when he's open, but he isn't so good on contested catches. In a crowd, he doesn't seem to come down with it as often as he should. One thing that was apparent was how often Allen's throws were off target. Some of his drops really were throws where Allen missed the market, and some of his best catches also were on inaccurate throws. I agree about bulking up. He looks like he could carry another ten pounds, and then would make him tougher to bring down. I wouldn't call him a disappointment at all. However, if he's never better than he was as a rookie, I will be disappointed. My hope for 2024 is that Brady will have a creative passing attack with Diggs, Samuel, and Shakir attacking all over the field, short and long, and with Kincaid finding plenty of holes as the defenders chase the speed guys.

Happy Birthday, Coach!

Exactly the kind of characteristics McD likes. 3rd round pick. Still, only a one-year deal, so he will be competing for a job.

Cover One says Bills liked him at Senior Bowl. The Bills usually sign guys they've followed for a while. They generally know what they're getting. They must like him as a sleeper starter.

Two Super Bowl rings.

Well, if those are the rules, okay, but I think Fred is actually the answer. I think Fred was the emotional heart and sole of the team until Kyle took over, overlap or not. And because I haven't always been so deeply attached to the team, and because I'm old enough not to be able remember, I have trouble naming guys from earlier eras. Talley, for sure. But between him and Fred, I'm sure there were leaders, but I'm not sure any were in the category of Fred and Kyle.

Fred Jackson.

Great read. Thanks.

I don't think so. The Bills are never going to carry all the guys they could draft, so they'll push them to practice squad where they'll get pick off by weaker teams. Beane loves to move up to get guys the Bills thought would be gone much earlier. I expect that twice in the draft he'll package one or two picks to move up to get a guy they really like. He'll come out of the draft with seven guys, eight maximum.

The problem with the compromise is it upsets the safety chemistry. I think if he moves he will be more or less full time. He would need all the safety reps in practice, too.

I don't agree that there's a talent imbalance. Torrence, Cook, Kincaid in the past three years. But I definitely agree about the long hard look. I just quoted a bit, but the whole post was excellent. Thanks.

I've suggested moving Johnson before. People bash me about it. I like it because safety is a more important position. It requires tackling ability, coverage skills and brains. That's Johnson. It's easier to find a slot corner than a safety. It's been a luxury to have him in that position. If he moves, then the Bills need a new slot corner or they go 4-3. I think Johnson would be a great safety.

I think McDermott wants to get Dorian Williams into the lineup with Bernard and Milano and attack from the second tiernof the defense. I still think we'll see Taron Johnson at safety and more 4-3.

I don't think so. One thing I like about Beane is he values first-round talent, and he likes to trade up to get it. Especially because he has a lot of draft capital, I expect he'll go up a few picks to get someone.

And this problem you describe is my biggest criticism about how McBeane choose personnel. They keep getting guys who do everything, like Rousseau and Oliver, but they aren't dominant playmakers. The dominant playmakers are the difference makers in the playoffs. Maybe with Milano and Miller (the pre-injury Miller) the Bills would have had the right guys. A roster dull of guys who just execute the system works in the regular season but has trouble in the playoffs, because the offenses are effective and can exploit otherwise minor weaknesses.

Thanks. I'm not sure we were talking past each other. I've enjoyed it, getting to understand your perspective about this. You haven't convinced me about philosophy, and I haven't convinced you, but that's okay. Your points about the draft make a lot of sense. I don't know the players in the draft, but I get your point. Bills needed a guard last year, but it wasn't a first-round move. Second round was the place to find a guard, and they did. If it's a second-round center this year, that's great. I really wasn't talking about what the Bills should be doing in the draft as talking about what the team needs. I don't think the Bills need a Tee Higgins to round out the receiver room. If they get a first-round receiver, it's a good move because in a year or two he'll replace Diggs, and he'll help this year, but I don't think the team needs a Tee Higgins to get the receiver room to the right level of talent. I think for 2024 a talent like that may be nice, but it's probably overkill. You don't think it's overkill. Got it.

I didn't say anything about the 85 Bears, and that's not what I meant. What it takes to win the Super Bowl is what the Chiefs did to the Bills in Buffalo in January: Make it very difficult for a very good offense to score. Championship games these days are won by scoring in the high 20s and keeping a really good offense in the high teens or low 20s. That's how most games go. To be a champion, you have to hold down a really good offense, and the last two Bills losses to KC in the playoffs, the defense couldn't do it. Offense did its part, but the defense didn't. It's only occasionally that the winner in those games wins by blowing the doors off the other team. The defenses are two good. Once in a while, yes, but as I said, it's not a sustainable model. You win with effective offense that gets you into the high 20s and really tough defense that makes a good opponent struggle. The Bills might actually have had that kind of defense last season, with Milano and Bernard and Miller playing, but they didn't. Now, if they all come back, they still are not yet in a position to have that kind of defense because they need help in the defensive backfield and on the D line. They had the offense last season, or were close, but if Dion getting pushed into Josh, and Samuel replacing Davis will make the offense better. He's a more effective threat. They need a center. Now, I'm not arguing for a first-round safety or center. I don't know who's out there. And Beane is always a surprise, so I have no expectations. All I'm saying is the notion that the way to win is by constantly giving Josh more and more weapons isn't the way. The Chiefs let Tyreek Hill walk and have never replaced him. Josh had as many weapons last season as Mahomes had, at least until whatever it was happened to Diggs. It's not about more weapons. It's about effective weapons and tough-as-nails defense.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. It's funny to me , because I agree with the first three paragraphs, in that I can understand what you're saying. I don't know that it's right, but it makes sense. I get, for example, that a big X might make it an exceptional receiver corps. I don't know if that's true. But I also get that a talented OC can figure out how to make different combinations work, so I don't know that a big X is the only solution. Why it's funny is I pretty much completely disagree with the last three paragraphs. I think a violent, highly talented defense is essential to winning the post-season, and the Bills need real help in that regard. So, I see defense as a greater need. I also don't think that trying to out-offense the whole league is the way to win. Somebody always stops offense. It's not a sustainable philosophy for winning. Defense is. And I seriously don't believe the surround-Allen-with-talent thing. He needs to be surrounded with enough talent; when he has enough talent, more talent doesn't make him better. The question is whether the Bills have the right talent and the right coordinator. The wrong coordinator, and it simply doesn't matter how much talent they put around Allen.