Shaw66

The thing is that people have feelings about people like the Pegulas, and they need to do something. It's not about giving something to the Pegs or violating their privacy; it's about satisfying the needs of others to do something to help themselves feel better.

I have nothing to say.

I agree. Plus Hines. No weak sisters there. But we've heard nothing. Did Murray come and go?

Cook, Hines, Murray, Harris. I'm good with that. Better power backs than the Bills have had in several years. Better speed backs, too. McDermott apparently realized that he can't get the job done with a tweener like Motor.

After the real draft happens, will prizes be awarded here to the team that got the most picks correct? This thing is great! Congratulations to Virgil and all.

That's always the way it's seemed to me. I paid a lot more attention to the draft when the Bills were picking in the top 10, and I always thought that at 10 the Bills were just outside of the premier-player range. I haven't paid attention this season, but it's noticeable that no one is talking guys as absolute locks.

How many can't miss guys do you usually see in the draft? Five or six?

It's just in the nature of the draft. The measure of how difficult it is to project college players into the pros is how many times the professionals - the GMs and coaches - get it wrong. Their jobs are riding on the quality of their picks, they have every incentive to get it right, and they miss a lot.

Yeah. Amazing steal where they got him.

Well, I think it's predictable. I mean, there are only so many places you can run from where the TE lines up. The problem is that most of the defensive players must be deployed elsewhere in order to defend other threats. Wideouts can't go left or right, because the sideline is there. But they have speed, so they threaten you deep, and your safeties have to cheat to help. Still, the wideout routes are somewhat limited. If you have a tight end who can run, his routes too are predictable, but there are a lot more of them. Kelce killed Edmunds a couple of years ago. It was simple - run into Kelce's area, move Mahomes in the pocket to force Edmunds to slide one way or another, cut Kelce in the opposite direction, BINGO! It was simple, and it's predictable if you're prepared for it. Some other defender has to be available to shade to Kelce as he makes his break. When that happens that defender will get a pick or a near pick, and the Chiefs will have second thoughts about doing that. That tactic creates a weakness someplace else, but Mahomes has to recognize it, and he has to recognize the NEXT defender who is rotating to cover THAT weakness. So, I think it's predictable but it isn't easy to defend. I'm sure McDermott will tell you that you have to mix it up. Yes, use White on him sometimes. Double him once in a while. Disguise defenses. Throw an occasional defensive wrinkle in there, something you haven't done before. And, if you're good at changing it up like that, you slow down Mahomes a bit, so it's important to have pass rushers getting home, because Mahomes slowing down doesn't help if he isn't getting tackled or at least hit in the backfield.

I don't even know half of these players, but the Chiefs crushed the 49ers in 2022, and Kelce had 6 receptions for 98 yards. That extrapolates to a 1600-yard season. Jimmie Ward had two tackles and zero passes defensed. I really doubt all of these guys stop Kelce.

Some good points here. Yes, we've seen White on Gronk, because the Pats didn't have great threats on the outside. Haven't seen White on Kelce because White didn't play against Kelce in 2022, and in 2021 the Bills couldn't afford to bring White inside because the Chiefs featured Hill on the outside. As I said, I think team defense slows Kelce, and part of the mix and match that the Bills defense might do in 2023 is to put White on Kelce occasionally. Study the Chiefs' tendencies, and on an occasional third down, flip White and Johnson. Maybe even go some sort of box and one, with White one-on-one and the remaining back six in some sort of zone or match-up zone, to borrow the basketball concepts. Not a steady diet, but change up from time to time to give Mahomes a look he hasn't seen or planned for. You're right that no one else has a real chance one on one. Edmunds was the ideal linebacker, or Milano, to try it, and they couldn't do it. Kelce's good enough to demand corner cover skills. Corners are too small for him, but as you say, elite corners can make up for the lack of size with cover skills and ball skills.

I really think this is the wrong question. Kelce is not some kind of super talent who beats people one on one all day long. Kelce is entirely the product of scheme and play calling. What he is good at is recognition and thinking along with his quarterback. He's successful like Gronk, but for a completely different reason. Gronk was a matchup nightmare because of his size and his relatively good speed and movement. Kelce is a matchup nightmare because their offense gives him route options that allow him to run to open space, and he's very good at recognizing those options and knowing that his QB will see it too. He has good mobility and a good brain. In fact, a good comparison is Beasley from a couple of years ago. Beasley was unguardable on his routes for a reason similar to why Kelce is so tough: He started in the middle of the field, so his options were both left and right and middle, and he was good at reading those options. Allen was good at finding him. That's what Kelce does, not as quick as Beas, but what he lacks in quickness he makes up with size. Running routes from the middle of the field is a big advantage to a receiver in the sense that he has the whole field to work with. Teams don't like putting their wideouts in there because it's too dangerous, too likely to have your little guy get banged up by someone he doesn't see coming. Beas and other guys like him are really tough. Kelce has the size to play from the middle, and the route running ability of a decent #2 receiver, and he takes advantage of being able to play from there. Yes, someone can stop him, but you have to over-commit to stop him. You need a guy with cornerback skills and linebacker size, and those guys generally don't exist. Some teams used to double-team Gronk sometimes, and you can double Kelce and take him away, too. Problem with doubling him is that it leaves your defense too exposed, because you're taking two guys out of your defensive center. Doubling a wideout doesn't expose you in the same way. So teams didn't double Gronk a lot, and they don't double Kelce. Beas generally didn't get doubled for the same reason, and because he didn't hurt you deep like Gronk and Kelce do. I think you have to try to limit Kelce with scheme. You need to bring different people at him at different times, you need to disguise defenses, you need to give Mahomes looks that make him fail to see a defender that can make a play. That is, it's team defense that can slow Kelce, not a player.

I think this is the important point. I'm not anything like an NFL-caliber strategic analyst, and I have to admit that I've never quite understood how McDermott sees defensive strategy, but it's obvious that he doesn't think it's necessary to have a downhill thumping middle linebacker. What he seems to think is the perfect middle linebacker is a Tremaine Edmunds who is somewhat better attacking the run and blitzing than Edmunds is. If he wanted a true run-stopping MLB, they wouldn't have drafted Edmunds or stuck with him as long as they did. Instead, what McDermott seems to want is two Milano's playing linebacker. Two guys who, as you say, play sideline to sideline, who attack the run, who can blitz. And that's what you and I see in Sanders. He isn't perfect, by any means, and he'd be another project like Edmunds, which begs the question whether you can continue to waste years trying to build the perfect linebacker. He looks to me like he can play the position the way McDermott wants. Whether he can do it at the level McDermott and Beane want is something that Beane and his team will figure out. If he's the guy, then Beane's job is to go get him.

I don't see it. As others have said, Beane really doesn't like trading picks from future years, so there's that. Beyond that, I'm thinking that Beane and McDermott are more comfortable with their existing personnel than most of us fans are. I'm not saying they're right, because I certainly think they need more offensive line help. I'm saying that whether they're right or wrong, that's what they think. There's a current thread with a link to video of some ESPN guy saying the Bills are obviously still the team to beat, or one of the teams to beat. It's important to remember that. The Bills do not have a personnel crisis - they are a very good team trying to get better, and they have somewhat limited resources. I don't know anything about the pool of guys coming out of college, but all I see is that it's a relatively weak class. If that's true, Beane knows it, and I think knowing it's a weak class will make Beane MORE reluctant to trade up. If it's a weak class, he's probably less likely to make a bold move. But what do I know? As in previous years, I'm going to sit and watch, and then I'll try to understand what Beane was thinking.

I guess I already did. Sorry.

But I LIKE lurid effects.

$13 on Amazon. I just ordered my copy! Buy it and support a great Bills fan. Amazon says this: "This book contains adult scenes and situations that may not be suitable for all audiences." That probably means he included the Music City Miracle.

Bumbles! Bumbles told me once he had a draft of a book, but if I recall correctly, he had stopped working on it. I'm so glad he finished it, or wrote another, or whatever. I have plenty of Bumbles stories, but I'll keep them to myself. I'll just say he's a great guy and leave it at that. Congratulations, pal! I'm happy for you.

On brand is right. One minor point on the Edmunds history: Beane said that in preparing for that draft, he considered all kinds of trade up scenarios, both for the QB and for other positions, but he had not considered a scenario where he traded up to get Allen and still had a shot at Edmunds. That is, he assumed Edmunds would not be available to him with the resources he had left after trading up for Allen. He did exactly what you said, except that he was surprised to find he had enough resources to get Edmunds. I think we have to remember that the Bills put a lot of stock, more than most teams, in what they learn about these guys in interviews. They certainly will have the mlb prospects ranked by their strict physical abilities, but Sanders and Campbell (and probably Simpson) likely meet all the minimum physical requirements they're looking for. If Beane moves on one of these guys, it will be because they are convinced his head is on straight in the ways that McDermott wants - team player, growth mindset, intense competitive desire, etc. For better or worse, it's the bias they've built into their evaluation of players.

Well, I understand the worry, but I don't worry. I mean, I worry that Beane may be making bad judgments, but I don't have any way know, except three years down the road. I agree, it seems like last year. Beane said something like "Elam was the last guy we had a first-round grade on, so we moved up to get him." I have no idea how they conclude a guy has a first round grade, but I suspect it may be colored by need. So, I will not be surprised, at all, if the Bills move up a few spots from 27 to get a linebacker. Beane will say the same thing - we had a first-round grade on him, and we didn't want to lose him. I actually like Beane's philosophy - he has the courage to go get the guys he wants. My problem with Beane is that his history in the draft hasn't shown me that he's really good at figuring out which guys he should want.

I've never gotten into the RAS world and don't know exactly what to think about it. But I found Sanders' RAS, and it's not materially different. His is 9.28, but when I look at the relevant individual data, I don't see a lot of difference. I mean, Sanders broad jump is less, but do I care? Sanders sprint splits are marginally better, which is more important than broad jump. Sanders agility score is lower, which I care about, but not as much as the foot speed, where Sanders has a real edge. I think what people are saying is true: Campbell has the higher floor, Sanders the higher ceiling. High ceiling is what Beane went after with Allen and with Edmunds. Beane is fearless, so on these numbers I'd guess he'll go after the ceiling again.

Well, I don't know if he merits a first-round grade, but I see in him what you see. Well, I don't see Lawrence Taylor. If he had much of Lawrence Taylor in him everyone would have seen it by now. But "dynamic and can not only play off the ball and he can rush the passer and not just a blitzer but actually has pass rush moves.... And he's got that NASTY, which this team needs more of" is exactly right. He's all of that. Especially the NASTY part - he's hungry to hit people, and that's the thing that no one ever said about Edmunds. Technique isn't always the best, but he hits people.

Yeah. I like this. A year ago at this time, Beane and McD were talking about the things that Edmunds had shown so far and what they hoped he would do in 2022. I'm reminded that in Allen's second year, Beane said he hoped Allen would make him write a big check when the time came; Allen did and Beane did. Beane said the same thing to McD about Edmunds, and Edmunds didn't do what he needed to do to force Beane to write the big check. A year ago, too, Beane and McDermott were thinking about what they'd do if they weren't going to write the check. They began thinking critically about the guys who might become free agents, and they were looking with great care at the guys in the draft. I don't know anything at all about Campbell or Simpson, except that like you, many people seem to think that those are guys who could play the position at least satisfactorily. The fact that Beane didn't seem to chase any free agent linebackers with enthusiasm tells me (1) that McDermott has said he can live with the guys he already has and/or, more importantly, (2) that one or more of those three guys can do it as a rookie. If two or three of these draftees look good to Beane, then maybe he waits to round two, and maybe he trades out of round one into early round two. But that hasn't generally been Beane's style. He will like one of those guys better than the others, and he likely will move UP to get the guy he wants. He might move up a few positions in round one, or he might move up in round two. If Beane moves UP in round one, say from 27 to 20, to take a middle linebacker, then you're looking at the 2023 starter.

That is far from completely true. Most of the players are improving from year to year, not degrading. They are getting the best diets and training in the world. They are working at improving pretty much all year long, practicing new skills and improving old ones. They don't reach their physical prime until 27 or 28. If you're running your team in an intelligent manner, you're expecting most of the players you have to improve. The Bills have reasonable expectations, for example, that Brown, Bates, Dawkins, Davis, Shakir, Cook, Allen, and Hines will improve. They have reasonable expectations that Oliver, Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham, Bernard, Elam, Benford will improve. They expect all of those guys to play better in 2023 than in 22. In addition, you have other guys who are true vets, and although they might continue to improve, they might begin to decline physically. Still, you're happy to have them. Hyde and Poyer and White and Morse are in that category. You don't ignore the fact that you're going to have replace them, and you make plans, but their positions are not positions of need until they show that's true. I'll repeat something I heard J.J. Redick say. When he was a junior in college, he didn't expect to be drafted into the NBA. Then he got drafted and he made the NBA. As a rookie, he asked a vet what he needed to do in the off-season, and the guy said "learn how to do something you can't do now." Redick said that every year for the ten or so years he was in the NBA, every off-season he developed a new part of his game. Shooting, with the off-hand, changes of direction, dribbling skills, whatever. He said that if you don't keep improving your game, you're on your way out of the league. It's true in the NFL. A couple of years ago, Diggs was working on developing his stopping muscles. He said everyone works on speed out of the cut, but his trainers had explained that being able to stop in advance of the cut was equally important, so his off-season training regimen was working on those muscles. I have no doubt that guys like Gabriel Davis and Spencer Brown had very clear off-season programs that were designed to improve particular skills. Neither one of those guys is yet facing is physical decline; on the contrary, both should be physically a little stronger, and also mentally stronger, in 2023.