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Everything posted by Shaw66
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Buffalo Fanatics has a point - Burrow is elite but JA is superior
Shaw66 replied to BillsFan619's topic in The Stadium Wall
That's interesting. And I'd add to that leadership. No necessarily rah-rah-type leadership, but the kind of leadership that brings out the best in his teammates. The leadership that causes everyone to execute in the biggest moments. It says "We're going to win this. WE." It seems odd to hear myself saying it, but Allen has to become more than he is. The guys who's asked to do everything has to do more. He has to be part of the team, not THE team, and he has to lead the others to be better. I've often said that Allen reminds me of Elway - big arm, fierce competitor, great natural athlete. Elway had the same problem. He had to get beyond being THE team, like he had to turn down his pure athletic superiority before he could win. It took him ten years. Maybe what Allen needs is to dial it all back a bit, at least until the final drive. I heard a story about Sandy Koufax stuck in the minors because he had a killer fastball and an unhittable curveball but somewhat out of control. Some coach finally said to him, "Stop throwing it so hard all the time. Just dial it back and throw it." When Koufax learned to do that, he became an immortal. -
Buffalo Fanatics has a point - Burrow is elite but JA is superior
Shaw66 replied to BillsFan619's topic in The Stadium Wall
Great comment. I think you're correct. Charles Barkley said something the other night that I thought was interesting. He was talking about being the star on a basketball team, but the same thing applies in football and particularly to Allen. He said if you're a real star, like Embiid, you're better than just about all the players, and everybody knows that. That causes your teammates to have a tendency to change how they play, to rely on you often. The star and the coach have to get everyone to play THEIR game and to stop feeling like they're just the supporting cast to the star. The star essentially has to be saying to his teammates, "look, you have to do the things we need to win so that I don't have to do it for the whole game. My job is to win the game in the fourth quarter, if we haven't already won it." None of the successful QBs is carrying their offense like Allen. Not Burrow, not Rodgers, I'd say not even Mahomes. Mahomes is great, and he's making star-quality plays (like Allen) throughout the game, but it never feels like the Chiefs really NEED him to do it. And that's not just on the coach. It's on Allen, too. There are great NBA players, incredible dominant talents, like Lebron, who just somehow demand the attention, rather than just being the guy who plays with the team until the fourth quarter and then takes over. Lebron's been very difficult that way, and Curry has been able to lead but not dominate. Mahomes is Curry, and Allen needs to become more like Curry and less like Lebron. -
Buffalo Fanatics has a point - Burrow is elite but JA is superior
Shaw66 replied to BillsFan619's topic in The Stadium Wall
You know, I agree with parts of a lot of what you say, and a bit I disagree with pretty strongly. Please don't take this personally - I'm not criticizing what you say as bad; I'm just saying there's an interesting discussion to be had about what you're saying. I disagree with this take you have that part of the problem is that McDermott doesn't say much of anything in his press conferences. That's true; he doesn't. And I'd say "get over it." Some coaches say more than others. McDermott obviously doesn't think it's very important to say much to the press, so he doesn't. Belichick didn't, either. As fans, we might not like it, but it has nothing to do with whether he's running the team the right way. I think you're right that Allen feels the need to do it all in part because the guys around him aren't doing enough. And there's some truth in that, and it would be understandable if Allen actually felt that way. The Bills have been tooling and retooling the offense from year to year, looking for the right players. There has been a parade of receivers - every season the receiving corps looks different, because they're trying to improve it. Same with the running backs. Same with the offensive linemen, actually. (Defensive backfield is the exception.) At some point, they should be a team where the same guys are back for two or three years and just get better. I'm sure all teams have this problem to some extent, but the point is to get the right guys and hold on to them. To be honest, I don't know if that's a good way to run the team or not. Time will tell, and some fans will have more patience with it than others. On the other hand, when you say Allen would be different (and would be winning Super Bowls) if he were on the Chiefs, the Bengals, or Eagles. I'll grant you Reid. Fine. He's got it going, from a coaching and team perspective in a way that is sustainable, and Reid would do it with Allen as well or maybe even better than Mahomes. But I'm not willing to crown the Bengals or Eagles yet. Before last season the Rams would have been high on your list, too. I'm not sure McVay is the genius everyone thought he was. The fact is that it's simply very hard to have a team that goes for ten years during which they win one or two Super Bowls and makes the playoffs every year. That's what Reid is trying to do, and that's what McVay is trying to do. What about boy-wonder Shanahan? Somehow, he isn't able to replicate that kind of success. He's still trying. Point is, McDermott and Beane are still trying, too. They're among 32 GMs and HCs trying, it's just very hard to do it. What's McBeane's system? It's versatility. It's finding the right guys so the Bills can play well as many different styles as they can. And because trends in the league keep changing from year to year, the players you need to play the way you want keep changing. Maybe they're a rabbit chasing its tail. In any case, I don't see much reason to criticize them for not having won yet or not getting more out of Allen or whatever. Not that there can't be discussions about whether other ways may be better, but the reality is that the Pegulas are believers in what McBeane are doing and they give McBeane more or less free rein to build as they want. So, that's the team Bills fans have. I have some confidence in them; I think they are building to success and they will get there. Others aren't so optimistic. -
Buffalo Fanatics has a point - Burrow is elite but JA is superior
Shaw66 replied to BillsFan619's topic in The Stadium Wall
I didn't bother to stop and figure out why I reacted negatively to what Allen said, and you hit it on the head. But I don't think it means he wasn't focused earlier. I think it just means that he isn't a truly mature and precise speaker. He understands that there's been a lot of talk about how the season ended and the fact that Bills seemed to have lost their focus by the time they hit the playoffs (I don't think they "seemed" to; I think they did), and he wanted to respond to what seems like a criticism out there. I think he's a little thin-skinned. He hasn't grown up enough yet to do what Brady and Rodgers did/do in their 30s, which is to say, "Look, we're fine. There always are rough patches along the way, and we stay focused on the goal and get back to it." In other words, R-E-L-A-X. I don't think Allen has the maturity yet to say those kinds of things to the press, so instead we get I've "never been more focused on Football." -
Buffalo Fanatics has a point - Burrow is elite but JA is superior
Shaw66 replied to BillsFan619's topic in The Stadium Wall
Who knows? Camp fodder? Yeah, maybe, but what camp fodder really means is let's bring in some guys who are still trying to develop their games so that they can catch on with a team. So, the Bills are the next team to help him develop, and if they succeed, they may end up with a marginal rotational player. Someone to fill a gap while we wait for Miller to return? Well, he could end up filling that gap, but it's more likely that will be filled by guys who were on the team last week. I do find it interesting that the Bills seem to have a range of these guys who aren't true edge players, and aren't true DTs, either. Shaq is an edge, but he can flip inside. They play Basham that way, too. It's that position versatility that McDermott likes. Cline seems like another one. The problem with guys like that (similar to the problem of offensive linemen who are multiple) is that they are versatile because they aren't really good at either of the two positions they play, so they aren't the guy you want starting. You want Miller, not Shaq. You want Torrence, not Bates. I get why McDermott likes these guys, because as the season wears on, you need help because of injuries, and McDermott would rather have guys who have been playing in his systems than guys who are added off the street. That's great, but sometimes you just need talent. In Cline's case, I know it doesn't matter all that much, because he isn't likely to make the 53, but he's another example of a player philosophy that McBeane believe in that continues to give me some doubts. -
I agree with you. All these years I've wanted Edmunds to be a bigger hitter, tougher against the run. Now I think the Bills didn't like him because he wasn't quick enough, he didn't close well enough with solid tackles, either in the flats or on the blitzes. They loved how big he was, but they wanted him to be quicker, like a safety, not like a traditional linebacker.
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You probably are correct. I heard it differently. On Rome it was like you just said.
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I've often said you either have a top 10 QB or you're trying to figure out how to get one. If you have a QB in the second 10, you're trying to figure out how to get him into the top 10, or at least how to use him to win games while you're finding his replacement. Bottom ten is "well, SOMEONE has to play QB, and he's the guy we have." QB is such a difficult position, the league is never deep at it.
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This is a good point. They didn't have much to spend on a TE, and I was pretty sure Howard was a bust, but the idea was that if they could resurrect Howard and make something like the receiving tight end people thought he would become, then the Bills would have the two TE set that they wanted. This time they went after a certifiable talent, higher ceiling than Howard.
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I agree. It sounded like a subtle change in the message. I think all that happened was that after the draft, Beane was choosing his words carefully, because he knew the press was going to jump on the Edmunds-replacement angle. So, he was trying to shut down that talk, but the words he chose were more conservative than he actually meant. People should listen to him on Rome. Maybe I'm imagining it, but after the draft I understood Beane to say Williams will be an OLB and the Bills eventually will give him a chance to play the middle. On Rome, it sounded like they want Williams to be the mlb, but they're going to work up to it at a pace that works for Williams. It made me feel better, too, although not perfect. No one knows if Williams actually can do it, but it's comforting at least to hear what sound like "we think Williams can do, and we'll take our time figuring it out."
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Beane doesn't do GM speak. Listen to Rome at the end of the interview. He's practically gushing with the fact that Beane was giving him straight answers to everything. Beane didn't say much of anything about Bernard or any of the others mlb candidates; he was just talking about Williams. Why are they teaching Williams OLB first? Two reasons: (1) He's the best backup for Milano. He has the most comparable skill set already. McDermott position versatility. (2) He has to understand the olb position, because olb and mlb play off each other a lot. As mlb, Williams needs to know what Milano is doing. By starting his education with olb, the Bills are teaching him something that makes him useful, as a backup, right away AND something that is fundamental to his mlb education. And a third reason: the jump from college to the pros is big, and it's all a lot of rookies to handle. So, teams generally start the rookies out slowly, and let the rookies progress at their own speed. If he's ready to play mlb by early August, the coaches will know that give him the opportunity. For now, however, they're planning to go slowly and see how it goes. Nothing wrong with that.
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Thanks for this. It's sort of what I was describing, but I don't know the Xs and Os. There's essentially a rotation of Klein, Bernard and Williams, depending on down, distance, and opposing personnel. And Rapp will factor into the equation, too, when they go dime and even in some cases when they want a DB with better run-stopping ability. And I'm still not sure what the long-term futures are for Taron Johnson and Benford. There's a lot potential interchangabllity that can come into play.
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I listened to Beane on Jim Rome. There's a thread about it, with the link. I think Beane said something about Williams that is a little different from what I've understood up to now. It seemed to me that Beane said to Rome that they drafted Williams to play mlb. The olb talk is just that they don't want to overload him with too much too soon. So, they plan to teach him olb first and then move him as he develops and learns the whole defense, so that he can be a true mike. Beane said something like he isn't ruling out Williams winning the mlb job earlier; it's just that they don't want to overload him. There are limits to the time coaches can spend with players. I wouldn't be surprised if the team talked to Milano and Klein and Bernard and asked them to run a little informal linebackers camp to start Williams up the learning curve.
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UPDATED - v3.0 (FINAL) on p.13 - Gunner's 2023 Mock Draft
Shaw66 replied to GunnerBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Ah. Nice. -
I hear you, but when you're trying to assemble a puzzle, you try pieces in different places. There just isn't an obvious piece at mlb, and when a team has a hole without an obvious piece to fit in it, the coaches get creative. I'm not ready to believe that any solution is completely off the table.
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UPDATED - v3.0 (FINAL) on p.13 - Gunner's 2023 Mock Draft
Shaw66 replied to GunnerBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Congratulations. I'm not surprised, because you seem to think pretty carefully about this stuff. I think guys like Kiper and McShay, although they have access to a lot of information, don't get quality inside takes on things. They really are in the content business, not the football business. You try to be on the other side of that line, and it shows. The next step is for you to get access to a few insiders who will trust you enough to share a little info. It's like the questions of whether the teams valued the receivers as high as the fans. Who knows? unless you can talk to a scout or two. Nice job. We appreciated reading your stuff through the draft. -
Well, this is an interesting discussion. As I think about, I keep coming back to the same conclusion, which is that McDermott believes he can do something unconventional. I think we'll see a hybrid approach. First, I wouldn't make too much of what Beane said about Williams playing strictly on the outside for this season. I think he said Williams can play the middle, but they want to go slowly with him, not give him too much. They stuck Edmunds in the middle from day one (for a lot of different reasons), and I don't think they'll be afraid to put Williams there early if he shows in camp that he can handle it. I would think that learning his role in the pass defense is what will hold him back - the Bills' mlb's run stop duties seem to be fairly traditional, so I assume that part of the job will be easier for Williams to step into. Milano seems like a natural to go to the middle, but as others have said, he may get chewed up there, and anything that threatens to take Milano out of the lineup would be a bad thing. But just like McDermott plays with interchangeable safeties, he may want to play with interchangeable linebackers, too. Frankly, sometimes last season I wondered which of the two was which. The fact that they brought Klein back, and given that he looked reasonably effective on the field last season, suggests to me that he's going to be worked into the defense in some ways. I think when the Bills want a run-heavy defense, we may see KIein in the middle, and when they want to be really run heavy, they might go 4-3 with Klein and Williams. I think there may other times when they want a pass-heavy defense and might go 4-1 with Rapp coming into be the sixth defensive back. And as I've said before, I'm not writing off Bernard. By the end of last season, he was a total after-thought. It was unusual for a third-round pick to see as little of the field as he did. Still, they drafted him for a reason, and Beane isn't one to miss badly on picks, so I won't be surprised to see if has a role. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if, going into OTAs, McDermott has Bernard penciled into the middle. And there's Spector. I keep coming back to whether they might be intending to do more situational substituting in the linebacker corps, so that snaps end up being shared among two or three guys from among Williams, Bernard, Klein, Spector, Rapp. As I've said before, McDermott has a plan in mind; he just isn't sharing it with us.
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Stadium Construction Discussion (No PSL/Seat selection posts)
Shaw66 replied to JÂy RÛßeÒ's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yes. Someone printed the link below. They sent an email to season ticket holders about their parking rights, which aren't changing. They included a link to the rules. RV lot closed until the new stadium opens. -
Stadium Construction Discussion (No PSL/Seat selection posts)
Shaw66 replied to JÂy RÛßeÒ's topic in The Stadium Wall
RV lot closed until 2026. -
Stadium Construction Discussion (No PSL/Seat selection posts)
Shaw66 replied to JÂy RÛßeÒ's topic in The Stadium Wall
Hear you. I was 13, 8, but same story. I'm happy for the fans of the future. I hope I get to see one game there. -
12 of 32 2020 5th yr options picked up. Bills 100% since 2017
Shaw66 replied to CorkScrewHill's topic in The Stadium Wall
I was an Edmunds supporter, even though he never was physical enough for my taste. If Williams gets the job, he will hit people. Beane and McD know better than we do, and they concluded Edmunds isn't a White or Allen. Time will tell. -
12 of 32 2020 5th yr options picked up. Bills 100% since 2017
Shaw66 replied to CorkScrewHill's topic in The Stadium Wall
He's the best answer for a year with limited draft capital and limited cap. Just like Edmunds was. Bust is gone after four, star extended after four, the guy in between is often worth it for a year. It wouldn't make sense to lose Edmunds and Oliver in the same year. -
12 of 32 2020 5th yr options picked up. Bills 100% since 2017
Shaw66 replied to CorkScrewHill's topic in The Stadium Wall
I agree about Bernard. Didn't mean to suggest he was a first rounder. I meant the opposite - that he over-achieved into day two. -
12 of 32 2020 5th yr options picked up. Bills 100% since 2017
Shaw66 replied to CorkScrewHill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Interesting observation about Day 2. The data set is too small to draw conclusions, but it sure looks like you're correct about this. I have a theory: McBeane have been very clear that they want to draft only guys who are personality and character fits - growth mindset, fiercely competitive, team oriented, etc. I've always thought the draft breaks down nicely along the same lines as the days of the draft - first round you have guys who are high probability starters, second and third round you have guys who should be starters but are lower probability, and fourth round and beyond you have guys who are good enough to have a shot but it's a crap shoot as far as who will make it and who won't. I think that the McBeane approach works best in the first round and on day three. It works in the first round because the only way guys become sure fire starters (first-round) talent is by having the McBeane character. You don't find guys in the first round who blow off practice or go partying or whatever. Just about all of those guys have been weeded out. So, Beane is picking from the full range of guys who are available because they all pass the character test. On day three it works because by then the truly elite talent is gone and what's left are a lot of guys, all of whom have more or less similar physical gifts. Among guys like that, McBeane's character-first approach gives them a higher yield, because those guys will do EVERYTHING they have to do to make it. On day two, it's different. Day two guys are guys that the coaches really like, if only they could get them to do something more or something different. Maybe it's just get them to work harder. Maybe it's learn to play in space. Maybe it's to get more focused on football. So, for some of these players, it's really learn to be dedicated like McBeane players are dedicated. But Beane won't take those, because their whole system is that they only want guys who already are dedicated like that. That would limit Beane's yield in two ways. First, it means Beane is passing on some high-end talent that just needs to grow up a bit. Some of those guys grow up, but not with the Bills. Second, it means the guys Beane takes in the second are guys who already are doing everything they can think of to get better. So, compared to the guys Beane doesn't take, they have lower ceilings. What we all fear is that Bernard is a good example of that - a guy who was doing everything right already just isn't going to be able to step up another level. If he could, he would have gone in round 1. It's a bias that favors the Little Engine that Could. In round six, the Little Engine that Could is a good strategy. In round three, not so much. -
Bills sign Latavius Murray to a one-year deal
Shaw66 replied to Roundybout's topic in The Stadium Wall
Well, I don't follow much of anything about the other teams, but I'll take what you say about the Bengals as correct. Chiefs always seem to have room to sign another guy. I also don't do a lot of cap analysis, although I try to keep up with where the Bills are. But my reaction is the same as yours - Less than $10 million, but Beane keeps signing the guys he wants. I think Beane is great at his job. He and his capologists have a multi-year plan, and he sticks to it. It's the same with the draft picks. I still don't know how he ended up with picks after he traded up for Kincaid, including picks for next year. He also seems to have had his eye fixed on the comp pick for next year, too. Happy Days had the best comment. He said Beane was "surgical" this year. It seems like he addressed everything he wanted to address and didn't overspend. Fans may have wanted an offensive tackle, but he and McDermott apparently saw no urgency there. Great stuff going on in Orchard Park.