Shaw66

I think you are incorrect in your assumptions on a couple of points. First, there's a huge difference between a plan and a time table. McD has a plan; he doesn't have a time table. Allen will advance as fast as he can and McD will start him when he's ready. That might three weeks, it might be three months. McD won't start him if he isn't ready, and he won't keep him on the bench if he IS ready but it's earlier than some time table suggested. Second, I don't think there's any reason to conclude that Allen won't be the precision pass Brady and Brees are. It's WAY too early to jump to a conclusion like that. In their early years, Brady and Brees weren't nearly as good as they have been later in their careers. No way the Chargers would have let Brees go if he'd played as consistently well in his first three years as he did later. I'm not saying Allen IS a Brady or Brees; I'm just saying that what he will become is anyone's guess. The one thing the pre-draft analysts agree on was that Allen's ceiling is almost unlimited, and he didn't do anything Thursday night to suggest that there are limits.

Lots of times we're talking about the eyeball test. My eyeballs tell me that's an NFL quarterback. And the excitement you talk about isn't shiny-new-toy excitement, like when you get a special kick returner and wideout. This guy plays the position where he touches the ball every play, and that means every play there's a chance that some really good things are going to happen. I mean, I was generally a Tyrod fan. I kept looking for him to improve in certain areas, to make some major league throws. His critics always said he never would, and over time I agreed. And before that we had EJ and Fitzy and you know the list. In one half of preseason football, Allen showed that he is unlike ANY guy who has started for the Bills since Kelly.

I agree. My only problem was that a few times I thought he looked like Cutler in terms of arm talent, and the thought that he could be another Cutler is not comforting. It's too soon to tell, but he didn't look like he was the pure gunslinger that Cutler always was. He seems to play with discipline. Pure arm strength, after one preseason game, I have to say that I don't think there is anyone in the recent pro game who compares with him. Maybe Elway. He's one of those guys the receivers have to get used to because the ball arrives so quickly and with such velocity. And there's a benefit to that velocity, because although his receivers get used to it, the defenders usually don't. So defenders often assume that he can't and won't make a throw that he does. And the defenders often miss interceptions because of the velocity. I'm excited now. Maybe he doesn't start right away, but he will start eventually. I think he's a candidate for the job right now. I'd compare him to a talent like Odell Beckham, Jr. (I'm not suggesting he's a headcase like OBJ, just talking about his talent.) A guy like OBJ shows up, you have to put him on the field, even if he has some rookie flaws and/or immaturity. He's just that good. Allen looked to me like that kind of talent. Inexperienced, not seeing everything yet, not by a long shot, but he's simply going to make plays for you that the other QBs never will. That kind of talent will put relentless pressure on McDermott to start him. McD probably is telling Daboll to double down on teaching Allen what he needs to know.

I think this was the thing that impressed me the most. (Well, can't not be impressed with the arm strength.) Allen seems to understand what he's supposed to do on each play and does it. No hesitation. See it, do it. I commented yesterday about the throw over the middle to the receiver crossing from right to left. The underneath defender was directly in the line of sight between Allen and the receiver. Allen let it fly, knowing that the receiver would be open when the ball arrived. Allen knew the route, he understood the defense and he threw when he was supposed to. It was, in some ways, an ordinary NFL throw, but not one Taylor regularly made. What impressed me about it was that Allen seemed completely comfortable doing it. No double clutch, nothing. See it, throw it.

I didn't see the game and just saw the video of all his throws and some of his runs. I agree with you. Allen is major league talent and he is not far away. First, to state the obvious, he has elite arm talent. He can make every throw, he can throw under pressure, he can throw off balance, etc. Second, he has anticipation and guts. Completed one over the middle where he threw to the receiver before he uncovered. It was exactly the thro that Taylor rarely made. Third, he has pocket presence and eacapability. Fourth, he can run. I think he's closer to starting than most people think. Yes, he looked like a rookie some of the time, but those other two guys are not going to make the throws the guy is making already. I was impressed. If he isn't starting soon, it means one of the other two is playing really well.

I really like the guy. It's a shame he's so messed up.

Right. No o line discussion. Nothing earth shattering here, but a nice summary. The guy is fun to listen to, because he is enjoying himself.

He doesn't have to be perfect. He has to be as good or better than the others in the time he's on the field. If he is, he'll get more time. If he isn't, he has to wait. Same as any other player at any other position.

Doesn't want to go to training camp. That's great. Teams are just dying to get players who don't want to practice.

You know, it's just so hard to tell what goes into stats. I agree about the target to reception ratio, but I don't think you can dismiss the parade of QBs throwing to him. Someone posted a stat (I couldn't find it) that said that Coleman was third highest in the league in uncatchable balls when he was targeted. That's completely believable with the QBs he had throwing, and that would affect his ratio significantly. On the other hand, how many times did Coleman run a bad route, causing the uncatchable ball? That's the kind of thing only the coaches in Cleveland know.

This is a good point. Always happens with strong throwers.

Beane explained what they're doing a week or ten days ago. He said Allen would get third team reps until the first preseason game. After that, he would get better reps or not, depending on what he showed in the first preseason game. It isn't about bringing him along slowly. He will get a chance to show what he can do, and he will move up or not.

I think its pretty simple. Best man plays. Best man is determined by all aspects of the game. QB play calling, reads, audibles, execution, leadership. Whose the best? Allen isn't yet. As Beane said, let's see what he does in his first game. If he shines, he moves up. If he doesnt, he scratches and claws for more time. Same as any other position.

Okey doke. You and I agree he's worth a 7th round pick two years out. We will see what he accomplishes.

All I've said is that there isn't much difference in their NFL production. When you adjust for targets and their QBs, there isn't much difference. As someone said, let him run fly patterns all day and he will help the offense. I'm not trying to convince anyone, including myself, that Coleman is Julio Jones. Neither is Sammy.

Nice math. Sammy played 29 games, Corey 19. so you'd expect Sammy would have more catches, more targets and more yards. That's why I did the averages, per game. Sammy was targeted a little more than Corey, but only a little more. So Sammy wasn't used more as a receiver than Corey was. Sammy had more catches per game because, as I said, his completions per target were much better than Corey's. That's the only difference in their stats; everything flows from that. If Corey had caught the same percentage as Sammy, then they'd have very comparable per-game stats. So what's the difference? Some combination of two factors - (1) Sammy has better hands, which almost certainly is true and (2) Sammy had a better QB throwing to him, which probably is true. Someone posted earlier that LAST season, Corey was #3 in uncatchable balls thrown his way, so at least last season, some of Corey's lousy catch percentage was attributable to the QB, not Corey. Don't get me wrong. I was among the biggest Sammy homers, he has special skills. And I don't know anything about Corey Coleman. I'm not saying Corey has the same potential as Sammy. However, over four seasons now, Sammy hasn't reached his potential. Wait and see. The Bills wouldn't have traded for Coleman if they didn't think they could make something of him; McBeane don't usually go looking for projects. Coleman has the fundamental skills, and we'll see what McDermott can do with them. If Coleman reaches his potential, Bills will have made a great deal.

It's just an observation. I looked at the data a little more carefully. The two (Sammy in Buffalo and Corey in Cleveland) were targeted about the same. Corey a little less, but about the same. But Corey caught the ball a lot less often than Sammy. Sammy caught it 55% of his targets, Corey only 43%. That's a big difference. That difference accounts for the differences between them in yards per catch, yards per game, etc. So the question is why did Corey catch the ball so much less than Sammy? One explanation would be Corey's hands, which apparently are suspect. Another explanation would be the quarterbacks. In 2016, Corey had McCown, RGII and Cody Kessler throwing to him; in 2017 it was DsShone Kizer. Sammy had EJ and Orton for one season, and Taylor for two. So it's quite possible that Corey's lower completion percentage was related to the QB play he was getting. Taylor, at least, was much better than the quarterbacks Coleman had. So, based on the stats, it's hard to say that Watkins contributed more to the Bills than Coleman contributed to the Browns. Sammy is one of the most talented receivers around, but he's never made anything of it. If I have to have an underperforming wideout, I'd rather have one that cost me a seventh round pick instead of one that cost me two firsts.

When he was on the field for Cleveland he was about as productive as Sammy was for the Bills.

Important to remember that Beane scouted him and met with him when he was coming out of college. Beane must know that the guy has character he can work with. If he thought Coleman was a problem two years ago, he wouldn't have taken him now.

I'm pretty much in the same place. I want to see the preseason to see what the offense looks like. It could be horruble, but that's unlikely. It should be at least as good as in the Taylor years, and the defense will be the best we've seen in years. If Allen emerges, watch out.

Agree completely about Daboll. There's not a lot of evidence saying he will be good. But if he's good, McCarron and the Bill's offense will be good enough. If he's bad, Tom Brady wouldn't help, let alone Josh Allen.

Other than QB, the roster talent doesn't mean that much. If Daboll is good, McCarron will be fine. A well-executed, good offensive scheme with McCarron at QB throwing to the Bills' receivers can be very effective. Allen could be a Hall of Fame QB, but if Daboll is no better than Dennison, the Bills offense is going nowhere. The Bills traded away their best wide receiver? Yes, I guess they did, but he didn't play all that well with his new team, and now he's on his third team in less than a year. It simply isn't about talent on the field as much as most people think. That's because all the teams have more or less the same level of talent. Other than the QB, it's about the coaches.

Thanks for the rundown of probably starting lineup vs last season, but I'm not too interested. What matters much more is Daboll vs. Dennison. The NFL is about coaching. Whether McCarron or Allen will be better than Taylor depends on Daboll. Dennison clearly didn't have it, and I'm hoping Daboll does. We'll know in a couple of months.

It's a nice report. I like how he gives a feel for the event. And thorough recitation of the 11-on-11s. Too bad he isn't posting here.

Great stuff Thanks.