Shaw66

It's just an observation. I looked at the data a little more carefully. The two (Sammy in Buffalo and Corey in Cleveland) were targeted about the same. Corey a little less, but about the same. But Corey caught the ball a lot less often than Sammy. Sammy caught it 55% of his targets, Corey only 43%. That's a big difference. That difference accounts for the differences between them in yards per catch, yards per game, etc. So the question is why did Corey catch the ball so much less than Sammy? One explanation would be Corey's hands, which apparently are suspect. Another explanation would be the quarterbacks. In 2016, Corey had McCown, RGII and Cody Kessler throwing to him; in 2017 it was DsShone Kizer. Sammy had EJ and Orton for one season, and Taylor for two. So it's quite possible that Corey's lower completion percentage was related to the QB play he was getting. Taylor, at least, was much better than the quarterbacks Coleman had. So, based on the stats, it's hard to say that Watkins contributed more to the Bills than Coleman contributed to the Browns. Sammy is one of the most talented receivers around, but he's never made anything of it. If I have to have an underperforming wideout, I'd rather have one that cost me a seventh round pick instead of one that cost me two firsts.

When he was on the field for Cleveland he was about as productive as Sammy was for the Bills.

Important to remember that Beane scouted him and met with him when he was coming out of college. Beane must know that the guy has character he can work with. If he thought Coleman was a problem two years ago, he wouldn't have taken him now.

I'm pretty much in the same place. I want to see the preseason to see what the offense looks like. It could be horruble, but that's unlikely. It should be at least as good as in the Taylor years, and the defense will be the best we've seen in years. If Allen emerges, watch out.

Agree completely about Daboll. There's not a lot of evidence saying he will be good. But if he's good, McCarron and the Bill's offense will be good enough. If he's bad, Tom Brady wouldn't help, let alone Josh Allen.

Other than QB, the roster talent doesn't mean that much. If Daboll is good, McCarron will be fine. A well-executed, good offensive scheme with McCarron at QB throwing to the Bills' receivers can be very effective. Allen could be a Hall of Fame QB, but if Daboll is no better than Dennison, the Bills offense is going nowhere. The Bills traded away their best wide receiver? Yes, I guess they did, but he didn't play all that well with his new team, and now he's on his third team in less than a year. It simply isn't about talent on the field as much as most people think. That's because all the teams have more or less the same level of talent. Other than the QB, it's about the coaches.

Thanks for the rundown of probably starting lineup vs last season, but I'm not too interested. What matters much more is Daboll vs. Dennison. The NFL is about coaching. Whether McCarron or Allen will be better than Taylor depends on Daboll. Dennison clearly didn't have it, and I'm hoping Daboll does. We'll know in a couple of months.

It's a nice report. I like how he gives a feel for the event. And thorough recitation of the 11-on-11s. Too bad he isn't posting here.

Great stuff Thanks.

If a.medical student can't do a triple bypass in the first semester of school, why should we think k he can do it five years later? People learn. At least some people.

The over under on the Bills is 6.5. So who are these "most people"?

Pretty simple. The coach isn't going to keep the best guy on the bench. Players want the best guy on the field. The players AND the coach will know in a few weeks. That's when we will know too.

If I recall correctly, they told Fitzpatrick that they were going after a new QB and asked him whether he would be prepared to be a backup and to help train the new guy. Fitz said he wouldn't accept that role; he wanted to start. So, I think the Bills tried to do what you would have preferred, but Fitz didn't want it. Same thing Bledsoe said when they asked him to backup and train a rookie. In Taylor's case, yeah, it would have been nice to keep him, just for the year, but McDermott knew Taylor wasn't his future QB, and the team was better off saving the money and getting a pick for Taylor than keeping him around because it would have been nice.

The 2013 strategy was a good strategy. It didn't work, but not because it was a bad approach. It just didn't work. I see nothing wrong with what they'ye done here. They've decided that Taylor wasn't the answer, just like Fitz. They went after a QB in the first round. You may not have liked the pick in 2013 and you may not have liked the pick this year, but that doesn't make the strategy wrong. After the 2013 effort failed, the Bills tried a different route - they signed a free agent backup (Taylor) but didn't draft anyone. How'd that work? Better to sign the free agent backup AND draft someone. The Bills are doing what they should. Whether they made the right choices, well, we just have to wait and see.

Thanks. It's obvious, but thanks. This states correctly when Allen is. If he DOESN'T pass Peterman on the depth chart as the result of the first preseason game, then he'll be stuck at 3 with some occasional first-team reps. At the point, his only realistic objective would seem to be to pass Peterman for the backup spot. He'll go into the second preseason game playing with the threes, and he'll need the second game to try to climb over Nate. But by then, AJ will be in the number 1 spot, he'll get first team in the third preseason game and the fourth, and there's essentially no opportunity for Allen to pass him. So Allen has a couple of critical weeks ahead of him. These two weeks likely determine whether he has a shot at starting as a rookie. He has to show the progress McDermott is looking for; if it doesn't happen now, Allen has a year of grooming ahead of him. Not the worst thing in the world - if he can't climb the hill fast enough to start this season, then he has a year to climb it. If he can't climb it by then, the Bills may have gotten the wrong guy. Only exception would be if AJ really lights it up, Bills go to the playoffs. Then AJ is the presumptive starter in 2019, and it's tough for Allen to unseat him.

This is unreasonable. 20% of the way to being a factor in the race? Allen is 100% of the way to being a factor. Why: Because he's in the rotation of first-team reps, according to McDermott. He would be getting first-team reps is he weren't someone who's actively in the competition for the starting position. That's true across ALL the positions on the team. Also, because EVERYONE, except maybe you, agrees that Allen is the most imressive of the three physically. Biggest, strongest, fastest, best thrower in purely physical terms. All of those things are factors in becoming the starter, just like accuracy, decision-making, leadership and other things. A guy who leads in several categories, and Allen certainly does, is a factor in the competition. The standard you've set is the standard for who's WINNING the competition, and I'll agree with that there is nothing credible that suggests he's WINNING. But a FACTOR in the competition? You think that McCarron and Peterman would tell you that Allen isn't a credible factor in the competition? Not for a second. They see him throwing the ball, and they both know they don't throw like that. Exactly. If he WEREN'T a factor, that would be news. Of course he's a factor.

Thanks for the look at the third team. I don't know enough to have done this. Interesting stuff. Perhaps the more important point is the opponent's third team defense probably looks as jumbled and of questionable talent. So the play is messier, for sure, but the players, especially the qb, have plenty of opportunity to show what they can do. Can Allen get in and out of the huddle? Can he move in the pocket and find the right target? Can he throw accurately? He is either doing those things or he isnt. Frankly, if think Beane was stating the obvious. If he lights it up in the game, he is getting more reps. If he throws two picks, he gets fewer.

Allen has a shot at starting. If he starts and the Bills go to the playoffs, he has a shot at OROY.

Obviously a long way to go, but when was the last time (probably never) the Bills got into training camp with guys who have the potential to be offensive rookie of the year AND defensive rookie of the year? Legitimate shots at each.

There's just no way anyone can know this to be true. Do you actually believe if he starts for the next five years he won't be more accurate than he is today? The Tom Brady we see now is NOT the Tom Brady who came into the league 18 years ago. It makes no sense to pretend we can tell today what a pro football player will be like in five or seven years.

Thanks for all the posts from TC. Great stuff.

Because an organization is run from the top down. Otherwise it's the inmates running the asylum. The leadership sets the standards, and the employees follow the standards. McBeane want guys who understand that. Okay. It's about bonus language. If the bonus language the Jets are offering is more or less standard for the league, then I have the same problem with Darnold not signing. If the Jets are trying to get him to take language that other guys didn't have to take, then it's on the Jets.

True. It's certainly a good sign that he did well enough in OTAs that he had moved up to first-team reps by the time training camp began. Getting first-team is the first step toward getting first-team reps in preseason games. So he's begun the climb to the starting job. Still, there's no way of knowing IF he can climb to the top or HOW QUICKLY he can climb to the top. That depends in part on him and in part on what the other guys do.

I AM enjoying that it's happening to the Jets. Maybe they got a self-centered, spoiled (pray tell, not from USC!) kid who's play will forever be limited because he doesn't want to get his hair mussed.

This is great. Allen is that kid. He's just trying to figure it all out. He doesn't know all the cliches yet, but he's learning them. He had his episode with the racist tweets from high school, and he knows he doesn't want to go THERE again, so he's falling back on the cliches.