Shaw66

I disagree that anyone can know that McDermott is doing a bad job. EVERYONE agrees that the Bills have limited talent. They did last season, too. McDermott went 9-7 with that talent last season. He didn't become an idiot in the past eight months. People have been complaining about how bad the talent is for months around here. Then this supposedly undertalented team gets blown out and suddenly it's the coach's fault. This team fell apart mid=season last year, and McDermott pulled them together. It was a magnificent job. The Bills lose one this season and you guys think he's a failure. It's a long season. The fact that people are disappointed with the team doesn't mean we should throw all rationality out the window.

Oh, my. It's begun.

OP is a nice assessment of what they did. It probably was necessary, as it was unlikely they could win with Taylor, Dareus and Watkins as their core. They will be judged on how they used their draft picks - betting the ranch on a QB and MLB, instead of building a line and taking the QB who fell to them. I like it. Allen and Edmunds haven't disappointed - they look like they can grow into real winners, and if they do, Beane will have filled the two most important decisions in one season. Next season he drafts and signs linemen and receivers, and the Bills may be in business. And 2018 isn't over yet.

I like that developmental issue theme. Nice. I don't buy the defensive candy take, but I have a different view that gets to the same end. I think McDermott may regularly over value his offensive line solutions. Many people have speculated that he appointed his friend as offensive line coach, and that his friendship may get in the way of his evaluation of what he has. I wonder whether Castillo is telling McDermott that the line will be fien with Miller, Ducasse and Groy when a more objective evaluation would say they need a lot of help. One way or another I think for two years McDermott has been operating under the notion that the offensive line personnel they have will be "good enough," and that evaluation has, for two seasons, looked to be wrong.

Good comments, especially about the downhill thumper.

I'm believing in the process and sticking with 7-9. Get Allen in there and the Bills will have an above average offense by the end of the season. What? Did I just say that? Yes. I looked at the video of all of Allen's throws. He was better than I remembered. Kerley, Jones, Holmes and Benjamin are more than good enough to craft an effective passing attack with Allen throwing. As that happens, Shady will be himself. This offense will be good. Not great, but good.

Thanks. That's well put. I was beginning to wonder if I was seeing things, with all the comments I got about my comments about him. He isn't a hitter. With time he should get better, but because he isn't a hitter he doesn't look like he'll ever be a great run stopper. I'm not worried about it, because I agree with the comments that he will improve. He'll put on some weight and he'll learn to read the plays better.

Fair enough. Maybe my expectations are too high.

Yeah, maybe. I was surprised to see his stats. I'm not a professional, so I don't see as much on the field as some might. I do know, however, that when I watched him or saw him, he wasn't doing well in the running game. What is impressive about him is his speed. A few times he closed beautifully. I'm fairly confident the problem is age and experience. He has to have the experience to let himself go, to attack instantly as he sees the play develop. It will come. But yesterday it seemed to me that he wasn't contributing what he should. He was in good company. I agree. My point is that you saw NO teams that were close to mid-season form. They just aren't. And that's what makes the early season games so challenging. It's like being a pitcher and having to find a way to get guys out when your best stuff isn't working. So, yeah, teams LOOKED ready, because the stuff they brought to the game worked. And I'm not saying it was luck, but in some sense it was. If those teams had had different matchups, they might not have looked so good.

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 Nightmare The Bills opened the 2018 NFL season losing 47-3 to the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills were horrible. In all three phases, pretty much the entire game. In the NFL, no teams are ready for opening day. They haven’t installed enough, they haven’t practiced enough. Still, the games count, and the mantra in the NFL at this time of year is “find a way to win.” You won’t have your best game; some things will work for you, some won’t. Some things will work for your opponent, some won’t. At least, that’s the way it’s supposed to be. Not for the Bills on Sunday. Nothing worked. If I’m not at the game, and if it isn’t on local TV, I watch the Bills at my local sports bar. I buy my wife lunch, we watch the Bills and other games. My wife likes football but isn’t a Bills fan, except through me. Nevertheless, I get a running commentary during the games. Before the end of the first quarter against the Ravens, over a vegetable quesadilla, my wife was calling for a change at quarterback. She knows good quarterbacking when she sees it, and she wasn’t seeing it. It looked the same to me, over nachos. Quarterback? One thing we learned in this debacle is that Josh Allen needs to start for the Bills. Not because he was lights out against the Ravens; he wasn’t. But if you’re going to have a QB on the field with limited experience, and the Bills are, a QB who just doesn’t get everything that’s going on on the field yet, and neither Peterman nor Allen does, then you may as well play the guy who can make plays. Allen throws better, Allen has better pocket presence, Allen runs better. The Bills have two incomplete quarterbacks; they need to play the guy who can win games despite his inexperience. The Bills game was on a screen beside the Patriots game. My wife complained. “It isn’t fair to put them side by side. The Patriots do everything right; the Bills do nothing right.” By the time she made the comment I was well into my second beer, but I was still smart enough not to argue with her. One thing I noticed on side-by-side screens: Kelvin Benjamin is not Gronk. As a rookie, Benjamin had good hands. He seemed to catch everything around him. Either my memory is faulty or Benjamin forgot something. He’s gotta catch balls with his hands, and he doesn’t, not enough. At least not against the Ravens. Oh, and Robert Foster was as billed – stone hands. Brian Daboll’s debut as offensive coordinator was, well, maybe it’s best not to search for an adjective. Daboll’s job is to send his team onto the field with something that will work. Nothing worked. Running backs had no holes. Quarterbacks had time to throw, sometime, but rarely could find open receivers. Yellow flags flew. If you don’t have overwhelming talent, and the Bills certainly don’t, then you have to win with scheme. There was no scheme visible. The offense was unprepared. Nothing worked. Nothing worked for the defense, either. The Ravens don’t have the best receiver corps in the league, not by a long shot. But those guys were open, wide open, all afternoon. The Bills looked confused, all afternoon. Joe Flacco had no trouble. Tremaine Edmunds? Long way to go against the run. He should get some kind of award for standing beside the pile, after the tackle, more than any player in the league. For heaven’s sake, can’t the guy HIT someone? He can run with receivers, but he can’t be a middle linebacker in the NFL if he isn’t going to stick someone once in a while. He needs to watch Milano fly to the ball and stick his shoulder into guys. Milano was one of the few bright spots for the Bills. “It looks like the Bills aren’t trying,” my wife said. “It looks like they aren’t running fast,” That hurt. McDermott’s team is supposed to heart, and it there wasn’t much heart on display against the Ravens. Get mad, please, and hit someone! What now? My wife has a theory: McDermott started Peterman so that when he switches to Allen, whatever Allen does, no one will want Peterman back. All part of the process? It starts with Allen on the field. We’ve seen this before. Last season we saw a team that was just as bad, for three weeks. That team figured it out and played some good football down the stretch. They need to figure it out again this year. Everything needs to be fixed. Does McDermott have a process for that? GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

That's what I thought at first, too, but that wasn't it. They just stopped making noise. Not saying the fans don't care about the team. Everyone knows they're passionate. But I thought they let their team down when it came to noise. And to think they were booed off the field at half-time. I didn't know that, but that's terrible.

Philadelphia has this reputation about their fans. Maybe they're passionate, but they don't support the team. It seemed to me that the Eagles fans were awfully quiet last night. I didn't see the first half, but in the second half, a really tight game, the season opener on national tv after their team won the Super Bowl, and there wasn't much noise. New Era would have been rockin. Where it was really apparent was on the Falcons' last drive, Eagles up 6 and needing a stop to win the game. As Bryant came to the line of scrimmage, the noise began to build for several seconds, then the ball was snapped and the noise stopped. Atlanta would go back to the huddle, everything was quiet, and as they broke the huddle, the noise began to grow again. If that drive had been in Buffalo, Bills up 6 with a minute to go, the noise wouldn't have stopped. It would drop as the play was run, and then it would begin to build again immediately after the play, with a lot of noise all the time the opponent was in the huddle and getting even louder as they set up to run the play. Did anyone else notice this? I'm really looking forward to hearing that noise again.

Nobody wants to go to Foxboro.

I agree. I think that's what McD saw last season and why he gave Peterman the start. Ugly as that start was, I don't think it changed McDs mind. He had no choice but to go back to Tyrod then, but it's a new season and he's seeing the same things in Peterman that he liked last season. I seriously doubt it's ego.

You call his generous. Yours is miserly. I agree about QB but do you have to inflate the numbers? 5 ints, not 6. At QB the Bills have better upside than with Taylor, but downside too. Benjamin is most definitely a true number 1. Maybe not the number 1 you want, but 1000 yards and 8 TDs a season, 14 yards per reception are fine numbers. If he's healthy he's a very big upgrade over last season. Jones will be better. Most importantly, if the QB is better, the receivers will be better. Edmund's better than Brown? Probably He went be as good against the run, but he will be an asset rather than a liability in pass coverage. Throwing against Brown was close to an automatic completion. He just couldn't get to the spot. Still, I don't disagree that there's plenty to be concerned about.

I've been at 7-9 for months now, and I'm sticking with it. Feeling a little shaky, but sticking with it. Personally, I'd feel better with Allen on the field, but I'm trusting the process.

I'm sure THAT gave Redskins fans a lot of comfort!

I'm bored so I thought I'd read this thread. Great response, John. Sometimes I wonder what people are thinking.

Mario was a good move at the time, because he was symbol. The Bills had done more or less nothing for years. They didn't have good players, they lost some of their best players to free agency, and football fans didn't think it was POSSIBLE for the Bills to compete for good players. When the Bills signed Mario, everything changed. It appeared that the Bills were working at being relevant, at being good. And that effort continued from the signing of Mario through the Nix-Whaley era. They didn't succeed, but they were doing things that hadn't happend since Donahoe. It was exciting. Big-time free agents are rarely worth on the field what they get paid. Mario was worth it because he marked a turning point for the franchise.

Okay. Let's play the games and see what happens.

Thanks for reading it. Now, Castillo IS the possible weak link. Or Daboll. When the Bills get a new guy, player or coach, posters go nuts, either raving about the guy or saying he's horrible. I try not to get too excited about any of them, because I haven't seen any of them before. (I only pay attention to the Bills. Once in a while I may know someone by reputation, but generally I'm a blank slate.) When Castillo arrived, everyone went nuts about how horrible he was. The noise was so loud and so continuous, I thought maybe he was a problem. Still, I thought it's better to wait and see. What I saw last season didn't impress me. My theory is that if you take okay NFL talent. which is what I think the Bills have, you can get good play out of them with coaching. I didn't see what I'd call good play from the O line. In fact, it regressed from the preceding season. So I do worry about Castillo. I also worry when people say he's a long-time buddy of McDermott, and that maybe McDermott's judgment is clouded about him. McD was quick to fire Dennison, but he kept Castillo. Here's what I'm hoping: I think the O line coach's job is to teach technique. Study film and work with the guys to get their footwork right, their center of gravity right, their hand work right. If they're doing that stuff right, the O line can still look lousy if the offensive scheme is bad, the play calling is bad, etc. In other words, what can make the oline look bad is the offensive coordinator. It's the OC who creates the scheme, not the O line coach. The O line coach just teaches the scheme. So I'm hoping that we'll see these guys perform satisfactorily because Daboll knows what he's doing. That's my hope. Now, no one knows if Daboll can do the job. And even if he can, I have to admit that the guards seemed to be getting pushed around a lot in pre-season. AND I'm not saying the oline is good. All I've been saying is that there isn't a lot of difference in talent among most lines. The difference is coaching. We'll see.

I was joking about this the other day. The Billls have a "veteran" starter with about one game worth of experience in the NFL, during which he threw five interceptions, with a rookie backup who has played two years of minor league college football. If it isn't a record, it's darn close. Did the Redskins have a third QB when RGIII and Cousins were rookies? What happened to you in the early 90s? Were you in a coma or something?

I'm always excited when the season starts. Having said that, I'm not expecting a lot. I'm completely in wait and see mode. I don't expect a win Sunday. I'd be excited if Allen were starting, because I'd feel like I was watching the Bills' future, and the future could be soon. With Peterman, I fell like I'm watching an organization that is still just stumbling along.

Thanks, Who. Good comments. I agree that if, for example, the O line is really horrible, coaching can't over come it. The fact is, however, that O line almost certainly is NOT really horrible, because NO offensive line in the league is really horrible compared to most offensive lines in the league. Here's why: First, let's start with a quote from a post in this thread: "You aren't winning games with a bunch of guys on your oline , WR, CB2, and LB who wouldn't make the PS on 50% of the teams in the league and wouldn't start on 95%" Recognize that that is literally false. If there's a better offensive lineman on someone's practice squad than a guy the Bills have, he will be on the Bills this afternoon. What talented o lineman is going to stay on Denver's practice squad, for rock bottom minimum salary, sitting behind other linemen who are better than he is, instead of signing for a million bucks and playing in the NFL? It simply isn't true that other teams have better players on their practice squads than the Bills have on their roster. If you just think about that alone, you can see that the talent differential has to be minimal. Second, let's look at the universe of offensive tackles. There are about 100 offensive tackles in the league - about 3 per team. They're aged 23 to 35. There are probably 20 more on practice squads. There are probably about 500 more offensive tackles in that age bracket who played college ball who were close to making it , maybe got signed as undrafted free agents, and got cut, maybe thought about it but were ready to retire after college. That's the universe of offensive tackles. But that isn't the universe of men aged 23 to 35. That is the very cream of the crop of all men in that age group - it's the very few with the size and athletic ability to do a very demanding job. If you know about bell curves, you'll understand that all of these guys, the 500, are way out there on the right end of the bell curve. The very best one or two or three are out farther than anyone else, and the next seven or ten begin to cluster together. By the time you get to the 50th best, he is not marginally better than the 51st or 52nd guy. By the time you get to the 80th best, he's pretty much the same guy as the 70th or the 90th. He's a ton better than the average 25 year-old, 6'4" 300 pound guy, but he's pretty much the same as the 70th or 90th best. All those guys who just missed making the NFL, 120 to 200 or more, are essentially the same guys. They're interchangeable. Because of the draft and free agency, nobody has an offensive line where everyone is top 10, or even close. Dallas got close a few years ago, when they were starting something like three guys taken in the first round and two taken in the second. But injuries, and free agency already have taken their toll, and even when they were together they may have been the best but they didn't make their team a winner. Look at the 100 offensive tackles in the league. Do you know who the 50th best OT is? How do you know he's better than the 45th? You don't. Is the 10th better than 50th? Sure. Does any team have two in the top 10? No. Why not? Because if you have a great OT, you aren't drafting or signing another one. And if you happen to luck into two great OTs, you can't pay them both, so one leaves in free agency. It's pretty obvious that the talent moves around.. The best players look for the best money or the best situations. Its a virtual certainty that if the Bills have the worst offensive line in the league, in terms of talent it isn't much different from the 25th or even the 20th offensive line. I suppose the Bills MIGHT be different this season, because they lost two of their best three offensive men (I don't count Glenn, because they already had his replacement), and they don't seem to have filled with position with a quality guy. But I doubt it. What those losses mean is the Bills went from average to below average in the league. So good offensive line play in the NFL is about scheme and technique, not overwhelming talent. Why? Because only a few teams have guys with overwhelming talent at one position, and probably none have overwhelming talent at two. Mostly they have talent that's marginally better or marginally worse than the guys on the next team. When there are only marginal differences, coaching becomes critical. If by virtue of scheme I can put my player in a better position to block his man, I don't need better talent - I just need a guy who will execute what I ask him to do, and a lot of guys can do that. That is what Belichick does. He's played musical chairs in his defensive backfield and on his offensive line for nearly two decades. He gets decent athletes, not the best in the league, to execute his schemes. Nobody wants to believe this, because (1) it's not what they hear on television and (2) it's much simpler to think about the game if you believe that talent is what drives performance. I loved hearing Al Horford interviewed after he got a big bucket to seal a win for the Celtics in the playoffs. He got the ball one on one against a small guy in the paint, backed in and scored. Now, Horford is a good player, for sure, but he is not in the top 5 centers or power forwards in the league. What he say? He said "Brad Stevens is a genius." He said every day in practice Stevens teaches them new stuff he's dreamed up, and that's what gives the Celtics an edge. Football is more complicated than basketball, so the value of the coaching is increased. Bringing it back to the Bills, it means that having even the 32nd best talent in the league, which I doubt is true for the Bills, they simply aren't that much different, talent-wise, from 25., are even #15. I'll take Belichick and the 32 best talent over any other coach and the 15th best talent. I don't know how good McDermott is. So far, he's been pretty good, and he should be better in his second season than his first. That's why I still think the Bills are pushing .500 again this season.

Got you. Well said. I just don't agree. The Pats, Saints and Chiefs are competitive year in and year out because they have coaches who know how to win. Nobody can collect and hold onto superior talent long enough to be consistent winners like that. I can't name a team that's been a consistent winner recently because of talent ,talent, that is, outside of QB. (The Packers have Rodgers, for example, and a great QB covers a lot of deficiencies, including coaching.) Maybe Atlanta. Look at the Seahawks. There's a team that made it on talent, and we've seen what's happened to them. They made it by being fortunate enough to have several Pro Bowl players, including a QB, on their rookie contracts. So they had a lot of talent cheap, and they won with a coach who was a good fit for them. But within a couple of years the talent got injured or left in free agency, and they're back in the pack again. But that happened only because they got really lucky in the draft for a few years. If that were an effective model, you'd see other teams doing it. That's why McDermott has the philosophy he does. He knows that he can't have defensive ends who will generate, on their own, 10 sacks a season. But he CAN have decent level talent at defensive end who, if they do their jobs all the time, work hard, etc., will get enough sacks and pressures to make the defense effective. That's why, I'd guess, the Bills weren't willing to dump a lot capital on Mack.