Shaw66

What don't we know? You think he doesn't care if he's the starter this season? Or do you think whether he's the starter this season DOESN'T depend on how he plays tomorrow night? I think both points are beyond doubt.

As I said, it means A LOT to him. His chance to start this season depends on his play tomorrow night.

Really? Are you kidding? Allen is BY FAR the most talented QB on the team since Kelly. Bledsoe was the only thrower who's even in the conversation, and Bledsoe was a statue compared to Allen. McDermott is the only coach to take the Bills to the playoffs in that period - well, wait, who was the coach for the Music City Miracle? Whoever that coach was had Flutie and Johnson as QBs, and they don't compare to Allen. Beane is on top of his game. If nothing else, he is BY FAR more in sync with his HC than any previous GM. He also has shown himself to be masterful at his maneuvers. Whether you like his deals or not, he always gets good value. Not every deal works out, but that's true for any GM. If you don't agree, name one coach/GM/QB combo that was better. Manuel and who? Fitzpatrick and Nix? Donahoe, Gregg Williams and Bledsoe are the only ones who are close, and Donahoe dumped Bledsoe for Losman.

Allen's on the hot seat against the Browns. We find out something about how he handles pressure. What pressure? Well, like everyone, he wants to be a starter. He's on a track that would permit him to be a starter. He probably can't win the starting job against the Browns, but he definitely can lose it. Going into the first preseason game, he knew where he stood. Beane said it - if he plays well enough, he'll get first and second team reps. If he shows he's not ready, he'll stay with the third string. The pressure was on, and he responded nicely. He followed up with a good but not great showing in training camp, running with the 2s and occasionally with the 1s. Now it seems likely he'll play with the 2s against the Browns, and maybe first come into the game when some of the 1s are still on the field. It will all be on the line. If he plays well, it's quite possible he'll force McDermott to give him a shot by giving a lot of first team reps in practice next week. Ideally, of course, you give your presumptive starter the first-team reps, because the third preseason game is typically the dress-rehearsal game - starters go the first half, maybe into the third quarter. But if Allen is good enough against the Browns, McDermott either has to declare him the starter and give him ALL the first-team reps, or decide that he has a real competition going on with Allen and one of the other two. Then he has to split the first-team reps in practice, split the time in the third preseason game and postpone the decision about the starter and the dress rehearsal to the fourth game. Allen isn't stupid. He knows his shot at starting is on the line. It will be interesting to see if he's up to the challenge.

I said they're the best combination at those three positions SINCE Kelly, Polian and Levy. I didn't say they were the next anything.

That's never stopped me before.

the current staff isn't as bad as the previous staff.

That makes me laugh!! When it comes to the Bills, I live my life seeing the positive possibilities. I'd be thoroughly depressed if I couldn't see a route to success, no matter how unlikely that route might be. I have to say that I've been waiting anxiously all week for the next game. I REALLY want Allen to light it up. He's the most talented QB on the team, and if he's also just better than the other two, I'm gonna be really excited for the season to start. (My wife is planning on having the grandkids over to the house for grandparents' day, which also happens to be the season opener. I have no idea what she was thinking.) Exactly. It's about the ride, and as miserable as those three weeks were on the sinking ship, it was all part of the experience.

I always knew I liked you, but never knew why. It's because your true feelings, as expressed above, come through all of that other entertaining stuff you post. I look at it this way: My off-season feelings don't control my in-season feelings. If I think positive thoughts about the team in the off-season, it makes the off-season more pleasant than if I'm pessimistic about the coming season. Then, when the season comes, regardless of what I thought in off-season, I'm going to be happy if they win and unhappy if they lose.

Yeah, you're just trolling, and I'm a hopeless homer. It think some of this really, really wrong. Here's why, point by point. 1. Oline. Very few teams have good olines. Bills certainly should be at least average. Why? Richie was the only big loss, in my opinion. Wood was just average, always was. He simply was not a star center. Bills have Groy and Bodine to fill in, so there should be very little fall off there. Even at guard, the Bills have two guys with substantial starting experience who are essentially average starters at the position. As much as people like to dump on one or another, the fact is that those guys are average guards. They aren't stars, but they're average. Even right tackle, the Bills have average talent. Add to that that they're in the second year under this OLine coach, and there should be some improvement. Line wasn't horrible last year and shouldn't be horrible this year. 2. Completely wrong about receivers. Benjamin is a top 15 receiver. Maybe he has an injury problem; we'll see. But when healthy he's a top-15 receiver. He isn't a great speedster like some of the best receivers, but he's an exceptional short and mid-range receiver. He's probably more like Gronk than any other receiver in the league. So simply having Benjamin means the Bills are okay at receiver. Jones has potential; we have to see what this season looks like. Kerley has been an excellent #2 and #3 option, and Coleman has serious potential. I think people tend to compare their team with a mythical all-star team; the simple truth is that practically NO teams have a #2 who is good enough to be a true #1 on another team - very few teams have that kind of talent. You don't see #2s and #3s beating their defenders and getting open with their elusiveness. They're getting open because they run their routes properly, and well-designed routes exploit weaknesses in the defense. The Bills' receivers will be as good as their QB. 3. The first question is whether the Bills QB will be as good, all-around, as Taylor. If Allen doesn't win the job, it's quite possible that the Bills downgraded at QB. However, it's quite possible that they'll be about the same. It's not difficult to see McCarron gaining the 500 yards in the air that Tyrod gave the Bills on the ground. But it's also possible he'll be no better throwing than Taylor, and then the Bills will have lost 500 net yards. We have to wait and see. If, and I agree with you it's a big IF, Allen is good enough to start, the Bills will be AT LEAST as good at QB as they were last year, and possible much better. 4. Old is not a reason to say they're bad. There is no reason to believe that McCoy WILL be worse than last season. He's shown no signs of slowing down, and plenty of running backs, the backs with special talent, have played well into their 30s. Beyond him, you're just talking backups. Backups come and go all the time, and the fact that the Bills have an older back up doesn't really matter if he still can play. By virtue of being a backup most of his career, Ivory probably has more miles left than a regular starter. And Ivory is a very talented back, talented enough to have been a solid starter for two years. One year he got 14 starts and gained 1000 yards rushing, and one year he had 10 starts and gained 800 yards. He's a quality. running back. Depth behind that is what it is. NO team has a quality #3 running back. 5. They're not shallow in the defensive backfield. Especially in the defensive backfield, the game for the Bills is about the system, not the talent. McD runs his defense like Belichick runs his. Every season he takes the guys he has, teaches them the system, and they perform. The Bills have two good safeties, a star corner and maybe a star in Davis. Beyond that, they have athletes who will do their jobs. 6. Bills haven't upgraded at linebacker, you're right. I think Edmunds will be an upgrade over Brown in the passing game, a downgrade in the running game. But he'll learn. I'd be surprised if by the end of the season he hasn't progressed to being an all-round better talent than Brown. Alexander and MIlano are back, so that's not an upgrade, but Milano seems to be losing his job back to Humber. So I view the linebackers compared to 2017 as a push. 7. You could be right, but as I said, there's a good chance that McCarron will, all things considered, be about the equal of Taylor. Neither he nor Peterman has appeared to be a liability through training camp and the first preseason game. I'm hoping, and it seems quite possible, that a new offensive coordinator and new system has made the offense better, so even though McCarron himself may not be as good as Taylor, McCarron under Daboll may actually be better than Taylor under Dennison. Oh, and by the way, McDermott has been VERY clear that he is not expecting to miss the playoffs this year. Now, of course he's going to say that, because it's his job to make the playoffs and no coach expects that he isn't going to do his job. But McDermott's leadership, determination and organization got the 2017 Bills into the playoffs with essentially the same talent, or less, that Rex was unable to take to the playoffs for two consecutive seasons. McDermott's team will be determined to win games, because that's what McDermott demands of his players. Every guy will be focused, will do his job as well as he possibly can do it. In short, the Bills have average talent, just like most teams, and McDermott already has shown that he gets the most possible out of his talent. I'm expecting 7 wins, minimum. If Allen is good enough to be the starter, if he's good enough to handle the job, the Bills will have a very effective offense to match with what should be a top-10 defense. And, although I don't think about the future much, the Bills have a ton of cap room in 2019. If Allen starts this year and establishes himself as a real player, then McBeane will have put themselves where every GM and coach want to be - an entrenched starter at QB on a rookie contract. But that's getting way ahead of ourselves. Well, COULD be able to do as well as TT, not necessarily SHOULD. But your point is correct. Tyrod's past performance was nice, but necessarily a very high bar to equal or pass. I just don't get the doom and gloom about 2018. COULD it be bad? Sure, for any number of reasons. But there's no more reason to believe the Bills will win 4 games as there are reasons for about 20 other teams to believe the same thing. The Bills are in the great middle in the NFL - there are 4-5 really good teams and 4-5 really bad teams and 20 or so that will be within 2 games of .500. They COULD fall to the bottom 4-5 and they COULD climb to the top 4-5, but the chances are very good that they're just going to be in the middle 20.

This is the point. The Bill's were a .500 team last year. They had the talent to be .500. The same talent is back, with so.e upgrades and some downgrades. Qb is the only position where one player can have a big impact, anod the Bill's probably made a sidewise move or possibly improved. So it's all about coaching. And Allen. If Allen emerges, then things could be really different.

This is right. You could watch him and say "wow, he has a strong arm," or "wow, he's a big guy and tough to bring down." There were things about him that looked good. But he never made plays that were great plays. Allen was doing it regularly the other night.

Actually he looks like he runs better than Elway. Pure physical skills, he really stands out. Actually not. Most years there's no one in the draft who looks like a generational QB. For any given generation there are only about 10 guys who have a shot. That means his chances are 1 in 10. Not bad.

So true. My recollection is that I never got excited about Manuel; hopeful, yes, but he always did enough ugly things to leave me concerned. Allen hasn't been ugly, not yet.

Thanks for going back and finding it. I noticed this too. His arm strength gives him the ability to make a throw like that without it being a hopeless floater. He's a creative thrower. Yeah, it's why I want to see the guy play. It isn't about mechanics in a vacuum. It's about making plays. If he can make plays wearing a blindfold, then let's get him fitted.

And Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre? Throw it from every angle imagineable. Different guys do different things. Rivers' motion is ridiculous, but he's been effective for a long time.

Roy, not picking on you in particular, but I have a general comment about this whole discussion. My point of view is that when it's determined that something is a problem, that's when it's time to fix it. Whether he's over-the-top or 3/4s, whether he's dropping the ball lower than some guys do, I don't care, at least not yet. Is there anything that gets in the way of his becoming a star QB? All of the arm-chair experts around here can theorize about it, but until there's an identifiable problem in his play, variations in his motion from the norm don't bother me. My eyes tell me he's a spectacular thrower with a quick release. I haven't seen anything that suggests he can't be effective. So I'm not worried. When he shows that he's inaccurate to a point where it impairs his effectiveness, when he loses more fumbles than the average QB because of his motion, I'll worry. Not yet.

I'm excited about the possibilities, but I'm prepared for less. As I said, there are plenty of things that could go wrong, and some of them will. If Daboll simply is not good, the Bills will be mired in mediocrity or worse.

I didn't read the thread, but I'm completely on board with this. We're talking about the future here, and none of us can predict the future. There are dozens and dozens of things that could go wrong that would derail the Bills on the way to NFL prominence (dare we say dominance?), and only a couple of them would be enough to stop the ascent to greatness. But the ascent to greatness is possible. Here's how (filling in some the blanks you left and repeating points you've made): 1. McDermott looks like he's special. He's a leader. He covers all the details. He's a tireless worker. He admits his mistakes and works to correct them. 2. Beane looks like a rising star in the GM world. Fearless, detail oriented, shrewd. On the same page with his coach. 3. Allen looks like he could be great. Obvious, almost other-worldly physical tools. Smart, dedicated, hard working. Stop there. Those are the three most important positions on the team. The Bills have not combined such bright, talented people at those three positions since Kelly, Polian and Levy. They are the nucleus. 4. Cap space. 5. The offensive line. Once you get past the quarterback, coaching is more important than talent. All teams have more or less the same amount of talent at the other 21 positions, in the aggregate, and it's what the coaches do with the talent that matters. Daboll is a huge question mark, to be sure, but after one game it already seems like the Bills have moved their offense into the 21st century. Most teams struggle to have five very good guys across the front; the teams that succeed are the ones with coaches who figure out how to get good offensive line play out of what they have. I don't think the line, as a whole, will be the liability that a lot of people think. 6. Receivers are fine. People seem to think Benjamin is not a number 1 guy. They seem to base it on his play last year, when he was clearly limited. Benjamin is a serious threat. Jones is the question. If he becomes what he should be, he and Benjamin will be a good tandem. Kerley and Coleman will do damage as the three and four guys. Like most other positions, receiver is a position where coaches use a rotation. We'll see a lot of different looks and combinations, and the Bills have enough talent to make plays. 7. Shady. 8. Defense was good last year and upgraded. Davis may be the biggest question mark. People are expressing doubts about Edmunds, justifiably. He's young. What I think people are missing is that although Davis may have some weaknesses in the running game - making his reads, maintaining gap discipline and hitting (things that should improve over time), simply his physical skills (size and speed) should make him a big upgrade over Brown in the passing game. It was tough to pass against the Bills last season, and with Edmunds patrolling the middle, it's going to be that much tougher. And the pass rush should be better. You can respond with "yes, but" in the case of every one of these points, but that doesn't change the fact that none of this is far-fetched. I think the people who are saying this is a four-win team don't get it. I don't think McDermott is a four-win guy, as we saw last season. I think it's a top-10 defense, which alone is worth more than four wins. If Daboll knows what he's doing, the offense will be good, regardless of who wins the QB job. If Daboll knows what he's doing AND Allen emerges as a viable starter, watch out - the Bills will be the surprise team of the league.

Thanks, Deek. And one other thing about that play. People are saying it was a bad decision because the window was small. Well, as others have said, if he can make the throw consistently, he's supposed to throw it. It's the same as saying Steph Curry makes a bad decision when he shoots from 30 feet. Yes, that's a bad shot for most other guys to take, but it isn't a bad shot for Curry.

I think this absurd. He made the read, determined the man was open and threw the touchdown. He's not supposed to look to the left if he had a man open. Yeah, some will say, but that guy wasn't open. Not open for Peterman, but he was open for Allen. He was supposed to make that throw.

Thanks. Some people do simply amazing stuff. Like those divers. Day after day going in there to find those kids and get them out. Incredible. I'm not one of those people.

You're correct. I was imprecise when I typed that response. I knew that's what we were talking about. I'm sorry you have little regard for me.

Thanks to everyone who contributes to these camp reports. They're great.

That's not what the controversy was over at all. It was simply about John's view that Allen will never be accurate. I don't see anyone saying to play Allen too early. It's completely clear when Allen is going to play, and it has very little to do with his completion percentage. He'll play when he's the QB who gives the Bills the best chance to win. That could be in four weeks against Baltimore, it could be in the middle of the 2018 season, it could be at the beginning of the 2019 season, it could be never. However, to my eyes, he'll be starting sooner rather later. If he's completing 58% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, he'll start over McCarron dinking and dunkin for a 62% completion percentage and 6.8 yards per attempt. A four percentage point difference in completion percentage amounts to 1 and occasionally 2 additional completions a game. IF your QB is throwing it downfield, the extra yardage he gets more than makes up for one more 6 yard dumpoff. Pretty simple, isn't it?