Shaw66

I think your assessment is wrong for a couple of reasons. First, though, I agree Edmunds COULD have a rough rookie season. I was talking more long term. As I said, I think he'll have trouble against the run. But I think he's already going to be a positive in the passing game. The reasons I think you're wrong are (1) the draft and the salary cap and injuries level out the talent across the league pretty effectively and (2) other than a couple of positions, talent just doesn't matter that much. Look at receivers. First, the very best receivers in the league rarely are on championship teams. Why? Because they aren't all that important over the long term. Pats have Gronk, but they won with Brady and Belichick without Gronk. Julio Jones. Larry Fitzgerald. Megatron. Having a great receiver just doesn't make your team that much better. Bills have Benjamin. He's a top 15 receiver - maybe not in the mold you'd like, but he's a top 15 receiver. Health is an issue. Clay is a top 15 tight end. Jones has promise. The Bills are nowhere near the bottom of the league at receiver. They're average. A couple years ago, Colin Cowherd asked a Las Vegas bookmaker how important JJ Watt is to the point spread. The guy said less than a point. Watt was by far the most dominant defensive player in the league, and he wasn't even a one-point difference in the game. QBs have, I'd guess, a three to six point impact, if you lose a good one. So if JJ Watt doesn't have a significant impact on the outcome of the game, how much impact do you think a starting guard has? Practically none. In other words, you can take one guard out of the game and put in another, and the outcome of the game probably doesn't change. Yes, I'd rather have two guards in the top 30 in the league, but few teams, if any, have that. And the difference between the 60th best guard and the 90th best guard is tiny. I've said this before: unless you have the first, second or third best, maybe fourth or fifth best guy in the league, the talent differential in the NFL just isn't very big. The best offensive tackle in the league is NOT on someone's bench. The 10th best offensive tackle in the league is NOT on someone's bench. Probably the 50 best offense tackles in the league are starters. The 90th best offensive tackle in pro football isn't much different from the 50th best. And NO team has five guys starting on the oline all of whom are in the 30 at his position (15 for centers). The talent is spread around. In that kind of environment, coaching and quarterbacking make a huge difference. Belichick wins all the time because he's the greatest coach in the history of the game, and his coaching excellence in a league where there's talent parity gives him an edge that no teams have been able to overcome with talent. Why? Because it's no longer possible to acquire and hold on to a Kelly, Thomas, Reed, Smith, Biscuit, Talley, Tasker and all those other guys. You have to win with no names. Yes, the Bills have a lot of no names. But as we saw last season, coaching can make a guy like Milano useful. Coaching, coaching, coaching. And quarterbacking. Coaching can overcome talent deficiencies. Talent can't overcome coaching deficiencies; if it could, Larry Fitzgerald would have won Super Bowls.

Huh? In 2016 the Bills were 16th in yards per game and 10th in points per game. Defensively they were 19th and 16th. As was always the case with teams Rex coached, they couldn't make key plays when the game was on the line. Coaching clearly was the difference. So are you saying you'd rather have stats and not go to the playoffs, or have a team that has lousy stats but that scratches and claws, gives the opponent nothing in the second half, and goes to the playoffs? 2017 was a masterful coaching job. The team was in transition, the receiving corps was decimated, both the offense and defense were learning new schemes, the team suffered a brutal mid-season letdown, and the team still recovered to go to the playoffs.

John - I like this. We always knew there were two approaches to the draft - trade up for a QB, or use all those picks to build the O line and D line. Bills went for the QB. Now, if Peterman turns out to be a star, the Bills made the wrong choice. With all those picks and a star QB, the Bills would have been contending this year and a potential powerhouse in the next two or three. However, I don't think Peterman has the arm to be a star. Without a strong arm, teams struggle against good defenses, because the defenses can cheat in and gamble more, because they know the QB can't beat them. So we're left with hoping Allen was a good choice. I'm a little worried that he didn't win the starting competition against weak competition, but McDermott said in the Spring that overcoming the experience gap in just training camp and preseason would be very difficult. My view is that the game is all about coaching and the QB. Like you, I think there's reason to believe the coaching is really good. We saw it last season. If the coaching is good, the Bills will be competitive this season, even with the holes we all can see. If the coaching is good and either Peterman and Allen becomes a quality starter this season, Bills will go to the playoffs again. And, I think people have gone to sleep on Edmunds. He's not much of a hitter yet, and that and his gap discipline have caused him to be not very effective in the run game, but I think he's already paying dividends in the passing game. I think teams are learning already that he can take away the short and medium middle of the field. He can run with anyone, so he isn't a gimme matchup, and in middle and deep middle zones he's a real headache. If somehow the Bills have good coaching, a star middle linebacker and a star QB, it's going to be a lot of fun around here. You put Dareus, Glenn, Taylor and Ragland on McBeane. McBeane weren't responsible for those contracts. Those are guys that McBeane didn't want or, in Glenn's case, couldn't use. Guys on your team you don't want are just as much "dead" space as guys you cut. Either way, the team is taking the cap hit, and wither way the guys aren't helping you. Either way, you're looking for other players, in the draft or in free agency. And of course you'd rather not sign guys and then cut them, but every team has some of these.

Perfect question. Both teams have bright young stars. Both teams are going nowhere. Darnold will have experience. I think the Bills need Allen on the field.

Jason Peters didn't turn out too bad.

Hey, Doc - I just added some text to your memo. It works great. The Hammer should go into it and make some revisions, if he wants. By the way, I understood what you wrote about "tight." But he's right about the mud lot - it's amazing when it's wet. But there's plenty of other parking on 20A that hold up better in the rain.

Nice job. City of Buffalo's website could use it. I live out of town but visit often enough to test your comments. I will addnsomenthings, if i can. I'm a life-time Scwabl's fan. Is there still feedback about the owners comments. I thought he apologized, a lot. And he was really unhappy. It was a stupid accident and he was out of business for close ton a year. Sandwiches are still great.

USA Today says he was. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2018/04/18/fred-jackson-cherishes-chance-to-retire-with-buffalo-bills/33965791/

Jason Peters, too. That's an All Pro and a franchise running back. If I get someone like that every 10-15 years it's worth having a practice squad. Plus occasional serviceable guys, like a George Wilson.

Fred Jackson comes to mind.

I think it's Allen. I look at it this way: Peterman might actually be the better QB right now. If he is, it's because he has a modest, and I do mean modest advantage, in terms of experience. He looks like he sees the field better and makes decisions a little quicker. The Allen-Peterman competition is close because, although Peterman has the experiential edge, an edge that is visible on the field, Allen has the physical edge - he throws MUCH better, he runs better. My personal estimate, based on nothing but how they look, is, which means for the Bills' that if Allen starts four games, he'll make up the experiential difference. That is, after he's started four games, he'll be where Peterman is now in terms of on-field understanding. I think if Allen starts the first four games, he'll be better than Peterman, which means that the Bills will have their best QB playing the final 12 games of the season. Allen already is pretty good on the field, and he will get better quickly. He will close that gap during this season, and there will be no difference between the two in terms of experience. Peterman will never close the gap on physical skills. Risk of injury? It doesn't matter. Injury is always a risk - play the game and take your chances.

I tend to agree, but pass protection remains a concern.

It's interesting that everyone seems to have the same reaction. It's been clear for nearly a month that there was probably only one way the Bills were going to have really good quarterbacking in 2018, and that would be if Allen emerged. That's still possible, whether McCarron is there or not. McCarron promised nothing more than marginally adequate quarterbacking, and once it become clear that Peterman can do that, there was not reason to keep AJ.

Man. C7t to make room for the Bills' third string QB. Talk about adding insult to injury.

Like I said, he's marginal. That means he's useful to some teams, not others. Bills believe either that the two they have are good enough to be starter and backup, or they believe they're just building for next season. In either scenario, AJ was expendable. Gruden has a different view of what he's doing and where his team is, and AJ offered him what he needed in a backup. Not much riskier than going with McCarron. Neither has much experience, and neither has produced.

I have a lot of confidence in McDermott. I think he knows what he's doing. I think the Bills will surprise their critics. Put another way - this teams short-term future did not depend on having McCarron, and the short-term future hasn't changed now that he's gone.

That's REALLY unfair. There's a very clear trajectory for guys like McCarron, the McCown trajectory. He's a good guy, hard working, he keeps learning. Because he's only marginal, he doesn't stick with teams. Teams have to perceive a need for a guy like this. The need grows as they get older, because they're important in the QB room. They become solid backups. But early in their careers, they move a lot, because they are only marginal - they are on the margins of being useful. Your backup QB is almost NEVER starter material. Good QBs don't stay on the bench long. But that doesn't mean he isn't or can't be a good backup.

That's really good. Thanks for retelling it.

I liked rooting for McCarron, but the NFL has seen a lot like him - great college players, dedicated to the game but simply not good enough. I wish him well, although not with Gruden. Bills will be fine.

Yeah, I knew he had a few extra minutes here and there, but it's a better story if we focus just on his record-setting performance. I'm okay with the trade, too. McCarron wasn't going to win games for the Bills, so I'm just as glad to have him gone and let the young guys see what they can do. For people who are distressed because the Bills are leaving themselves in the hands of a virtual rookie, one way or the other, stop and think how Eagles felt when they traded a better vet (Bradford), leaving the job to a rookie. That didn't work out too badly. It's a different league, and season after season we surprises because we weren't focused on the right things. In that regard, I think the 4th quarter comeback could have been an important sign. Last season the Bills were really good in the second half of games, and they did it again Thursday. That's a sign that McDermott is doing things right. When the coach is doing the right things, the quality of the team often improves quickly. Weird as all this is, I'm still not convinced the Bills are worse than 7-9.

Gene Hackman comes to mind in Enemy of the State, when he says to WIll Smith (just imagine he's saying it to McBeane): Either you're really smart or you're really stupid. Going naked with two really young QBs is the best evidence that (1) McBeane know something we don't know, (2) McBeane don't know what they're doing or (3) despite what they say, it's all about 2019.

So I was explaining to my wife, who is not NEARLY as into the Bills as I am, that the Bills traded AJ. Although I've explained to her before who the three QBs were, she's always half paid attention then forgotten about it altogether. So I'm telling her about the trade, and for her to understand the significance, I had to retell the story of who the three QBs are. The story came out, honest to God, something like this: They traded AJ McCarron, so now the Bills have only two QBs. I chuckled. So the EXPERIENCED QB is this guy - and I began to laugh. My wife looked at me. The EXPERIENCED QB has played exactly one half of one game in the NFL, and in that - now I'm really laughing a lot - and in that one half in the NFL he threw FIVE interceptions. Now my wife is laughing, too. Their INEXPERIENCED QB is a rookie who played in the college minor leagues for a few years, the real minors, so he hasn't experienced anything even like big-time college football. If you think about it, it's pretty funny.

It's really great. I drive over 6 hours to get to the games for exactly what you describe. Just great.

Yeah. Its just hard to know what's causing everything. Apparently Allen was holding the ball because he wasn't getting out of the huddle fasten enough to give him time to look over the defense. If that's an Allen problem, and Peterman does it better, that's a big difference. The point is that rookies have a lot to learn to do just the basics, and if Allen isn't over that threshold, he just won't be able to produce very well. Rookie qbs lead the league in sacks every year. They just can't handle all that's on their plate. Allen looks close - I like his poise especially, but as long as he's killing drives like he did Sunday, he isn't likely to win games. Yes, the o line was bad, but it's been bad for Peterman too. Peterman is getting the ball out. As I said, let's see how Allen does Thursday. I think it's Peterman because he clearly has been the best on the field. He has been very effective. Why play AJ when he hasn't shown anything? I think it's between Allen and Peterman. I'm happy either way. I'd start Peterman until Allen shows me he has learned more about handling the whole job.

I agree with this analysis. I think it's an accurate assessment of where Allen is. I disagree with conclusion. The assessment establishes that Allen WILL be the best qb of the three, but it ignores the fact that Peterman has been consistently more effective. Peterman gives the Bills a better chance to win the next game, preseason or not. Until Allen can be consistently more effective, Peterman should play. Will I be upset if McD goes with Allen? Not at all. He is close enough, and as the article suggests, he will learn a lot if he is playing. I'd guess that if Allen starts, it will take him only half the season to catch up pass Peterman. But if you want to beat Baltimore, I'd start Peterman. Good stuff. You make the opposite argument and it make sense. I think Allen has been slow to get the ball out and Peterman hasn't. Allen will learn, probably, but until he does, being slow to get ball out means he will be sacked a lot. Sacks kill drives, and dead drives mean no points. That's why I like Peterman for now. Maybe we will see something different on Thursday.