Shaw66

Yeah, you're just trolling, and I'm a hopeless homer. It think some of this really, really wrong. Here's why, point by point. 1. Oline. Very few teams have good olines. Bills certainly should be at least average. Why? Richie was the only big loss, in my opinion. Wood was just average, always was. He simply was not a star center. Bills have Groy and Bodine to fill in, so there should be very little fall off there. Even at guard, the Bills have two guys with substantial starting experience who are essentially average starters at the position. As much as people like to dump on one or another, the fact is that those guys are average guards. They aren't stars, but they're average. Even right tackle, the Bills have average talent. Add to that that they're in the second year under this OLine coach, and there should be some improvement. Line wasn't horrible last year and shouldn't be horrible this year. 2. Completely wrong about receivers. Benjamin is a top 15 receiver. Maybe he has an injury problem; we'll see. But when healthy he's a top-15 receiver. He isn't a great speedster like some of the best receivers, but he's an exceptional short and mid-range receiver. He's probably more like Gronk than any other receiver in the league. So simply having Benjamin means the Bills are okay at receiver. Jones has potential; we have to see what this season looks like. Kerley has been an excellent #2 and #3 option, and Coleman has serious potential. I think people tend to compare their team with a mythical all-star team; the simple truth is that practically NO teams have a #2 who is good enough to be a true #1 on another team - very few teams have that kind of talent. You don't see #2s and #3s beating their defenders and getting open with their elusiveness. They're getting open because they run their routes properly, and well-designed routes exploit weaknesses in the defense. The Bills' receivers will be as good as their QB. 3. The first question is whether the Bills QB will be as good, all-around, as Taylor. If Allen doesn't win the job, it's quite possible that the Bills downgraded at QB. However, it's quite possible that they'll be about the same. It's not difficult to see McCarron gaining the 500 yards in the air that Tyrod gave the Bills on the ground. But it's also possible he'll be no better throwing than Taylor, and then the Bills will have lost 500 net yards. We have to wait and see. If, and I agree with you it's a big IF, Allen is good enough to start, the Bills will be AT LEAST as good at QB as they were last year, and possible much better. 4. Old is not a reason to say they're bad. There is no reason to believe that McCoy WILL be worse than last season. He's shown no signs of slowing down, and plenty of running backs, the backs with special talent, have played well into their 30s. Beyond him, you're just talking backups. Backups come and go all the time, and the fact that the Bills have an older back up doesn't really matter if he still can play. By virtue of being a backup most of his career, Ivory probably has more miles left than a regular starter. And Ivory is a very talented back, talented enough to have been a solid starter for two years. One year he got 14 starts and gained 1000 yards rushing, and one year he had 10 starts and gained 800 yards. He's a quality. running back. Depth behind that is what it is. NO team has a quality #3 running back. 5. They're not shallow in the defensive backfield. Especially in the defensive backfield, the game for the Bills is about the system, not the talent. McD runs his defense like Belichick runs his. Every season he takes the guys he has, teaches them the system, and they perform. The Bills have two good safeties, a star corner and maybe a star in Davis. Beyond that, they have athletes who will do their jobs. 6. Bills haven't upgraded at linebacker, you're right. I think Edmunds will be an upgrade over Brown in the passing game, a downgrade in the running game. But he'll learn. I'd be surprised if by the end of the season he hasn't progressed to being an all-round better talent than Brown. Alexander and MIlano are back, so that's not an upgrade, but Milano seems to be losing his job back to Humber. So I view the linebackers compared to 2017 as a push. 7. You could be right, but as I said, there's a good chance that McCarron will, all things considered, be about the equal of Taylor. Neither he nor Peterman has appeared to be a liability through training camp and the first preseason game. I'm hoping, and it seems quite possible, that a new offensive coordinator and new system has made the offense better, so even though McCarron himself may not be as good as Taylor, McCarron under Daboll may actually be better than Taylor under Dennison. Oh, and by the way, McDermott has been VERY clear that he is not expecting to miss the playoffs this year. Now, of course he's going to say that, because it's his job to make the playoffs and no coach expects that he isn't going to do his job. But McDermott's leadership, determination and organization got the 2017 Bills into the playoffs with essentially the same talent, or less, that Rex was unable to take to the playoffs for two consecutive seasons. McDermott's team will be determined to win games, because that's what McDermott demands of his players. Every guy will be focused, will do his job as well as he possibly can do it. In short, the Bills have average talent, just like most teams, and McDermott already has shown that he gets the most possible out of his talent. I'm expecting 7 wins, minimum. If Allen is good enough to be the starter, if he's good enough to handle the job, the Bills will have a very effective offense to match with what should be a top-10 defense. And, although I don't think about the future much, the Bills have a ton of cap room in 2019. If Allen starts this year and establishes himself as a real player, then McBeane will have put themselves where every GM and coach want to be - an entrenched starter at QB on a rookie contract. But that's getting way ahead of ourselves. Well, COULD be able to do as well as TT, not necessarily SHOULD. But your point is correct. Tyrod's past performance was nice, but necessarily a very high bar to equal or pass. I just don't get the doom and gloom about 2018. COULD it be bad? Sure, for any number of reasons. But there's no more reason to believe the Bills will win 4 games as there are reasons for about 20 other teams to believe the same thing. The Bills are in the great middle in the NFL - there are 4-5 really good teams and 4-5 really bad teams and 20 or so that will be within 2 games of .500. They COULD fall to the bottom 4-5 and they COULD climb to the top 4-5, but the chances are very good that they're just going to be in the middle 20.

This is the point. The Bill's were a .500 team last year. They had the talent to be .500. The same talent is back, with so.e upgrades and some downgrades. Qb is the only position where one player can have a big impact, anod the Bill's probably made a sidewise move or possibly improved. So it's all about coaching. And Allen. If Allen emerges, then things could be really different.

This is right. You could watch him and say "wow, he has a strong arm," or "wow, he's a big guy and tough to bring down." There were things about him that looked good. But he never made plays that were great plays. Allen was doing it regularly the other night.

Actually he looks like he runs better than Elway. Pure physical skills, he really stands out. Actually not. Most years there's no one in the draft who looks like a generational QB. For any given generation there are only about 10 guys who have a shot. That means his chances are 1 in 10. Not bad.

So true. My recollection is that I never got excited about Manuel; hopeful, yes, but he always did enough ugly things to leave me concerned. Allen hasn't been ugly, not yet.

Thanks for going back and finding it. I noticed this too. His arm strength gives him the ability to make a throw like that without it being a hopeless floater. He's a creative thrower. Yeah, it's why I want to see the guy play. It isn't about mechanics in a vacuum. It's about making plays. If he can make plays wearing a blindfold, then let's get him fitted.

And Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre? Throw it from every angle imagineable. Different guys do different things. Rivers' motion is ridiculous, but he's been effective for a long time.

Roy, not picking on you in particular, but I have a general comment about this whole discussion. My point of view is that when it's determined that something is a problem, that's when it's time to fix it. Whether he's over-the-top or 3/4s, whether he's dropping the ball lower than some guys do, I don't care, at least not yet. Is there anything that gets in the way of his becoming a star QB? All of the arm-chair experts around here can theorize about it, but until there's an identifiable problem in his play, variations in his motion from the norm don't bother me. My eyes tell me he's a spectacular thrower with a quick release. I haven't seen anything that suggests he can't be effective. So I'm not worried. When he shows that he's inaccurate to a point where it impairs his effectiveness, when he loses more fumbles than the average QB because of his motion, I'll worry. Not yet.

I'm excited about the possibilities, but I'm prepared for less. As I said, there are plenty of things that could go wrong, and some of them will. If Daboll simply is not good, the Bills will be mired in mediocrity or worse.

I didn't read the thread, but I'm completely on board with this. We're talking about the future here, and none of us can predict the future. There are dozens and dozens of things that could go wrong that would derail the Bills on the way to NFL prominence (dare we say dominance?), and only a couple of them would be enough to stop the ascent to greatness. But the ascent to greatness is possible. Here's how (filling in some the blanks you left and repeating points you've made): 1. McDermott looks like he's special. He's a leader. He covers all the details. He's a tireless worker. He admits his mistakes and works to correct them. 2. Beane looks like a rising star in the GM world. Fearless, detail oriented, shrewd. On the same page with his coach. 3. Allen looks like he could be great. Obvious, almost other-worldly physical tools. Smart, dedicated, hard working. Stop there. Those are the three most important positions on the team. The Bills have not combined such bright, talented people at those three positions since Kelly, Polian and Levy. They are the nucleus. 4. Cap space. 5. The offensive line. Once you get past the quarterback, coaching is more important than talent. All teams have more or less the same amount of talent at the other 21 positions, in the aggregate, and it's what the coaches do with the talent that matters. Daboll is a huge question mark, to be sure, but after one game it already seems like the Bills have moved their offense into the 21st century. Most teams struggle to have five very good guys across the front; the teams that succeed are the ones with coaches who figure out how to get good offensive line play out of what they have. I don't think the line, as a whole, will be the liability that a lot of people think. 6. Receivers are fine. People seem to think Benjamin is not a number 1 guy. They seem to base it on his play last year, when he was clearly limited. Benjamin is a serious threat. Jones is the question. If he becomes what he should be, he and Benjamin will be a good tandem. Kerley and Coleman will do damage as the three and four guys. Like most other positions, receiver is a position where coaches use a rotation. We'll see a lot of different looks and combinations, and the Bills have enough talent to make plays. 7. Shady. 8. Defense was good last year and upgraded. Davis may be the biggest question mark. People are expressing doubts about Edmunds, justifiably. He's young. What I think people are missing is that although Davis may have some weaknesses in the running game - making his reads, maintaining gap discipline and hitting (things that should improve over time), simply his physical skills (size and speed) should make him a big upgrade over Brown in the passing game. It was tough to pass against the Bills last season, and with Edmunds patrolling the middle, it's going to be that much tougher. And the pass rush should be better. You can respond with "yes, but" in the case of every one of these points, but that doesn't change the fact that none of this is far-fetched. I think the people who are saying this is a four-win team don't get it. I don't think McDermott is a four-win guy, as we saw last season. I think it's a top-10 defense, which alone is worth more than four wins. If Daboll knows what he's doing, the offense will be good, regardless of who wins the QB job. If Daboll knows what he's doing AND Allen emerges as a viable starter, watch out - the Bills will be the surprise team of the league.

Thanks, Deek. And one other thing about that play. People are saying it was a bad decision because the window was small. Well, as others have said, if he can make the throw consistently, he's supposed to throw it. It's the same as saying Steph Curry makes a bad decision when he shoots from 30 feet. Yes, that's a bad shot for most other guys to take, but it isn't a bad shot for Curry.

I think this absurd. He made the read, determined the man was open and threw the touchdown. He's not supposed to look to the left if he had a man open. Yeah, some will say, but that guy wasn't open. Not open for Peterman, but he was open for Allen. He was supposed to make that throw.

Thanks. Some people do simply amazing stuff. Like those divers. Day after day going in there to find those kids and get them out. Incredible. I'm not one of those people.

You're correct. I was imprecise when I typed that response. I knew that's what we were talking about. I'm sorry you have little regard for me.

Thanks to everyone who contributes to these camp reports. They're great.

That's not what the controversy was over at all. It was simply about John's view that Allen will never be accurate. I don't see anyone saying to play Allen too early. It's completely clear when Allen is going to play, and it has very little to do with his completion percentage. He'll play when he's the QB who gives the Bills the best chance to win. That could be in four weeks against Baltimore, it could be in the middle of the 2018 season, it could be at the beginning of the 2019 season, it could be never. However, to my eyes, he'll be starting sooner rather later. If he's completing 58% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, he'll start over McCarron dinking and dunkin for a 62% completion percentage and 6.8 yards per attempt. A four percentage point difference in completion percentage amounts to 1 and occasionally 2 additional completions a game. IF your QB is throwing it downfield, the extra yardage he gets more than makes up for one more 6 yard dumpoff. Pretty simple, isn't it?

Makes sense to me. Legitimate franchise qb is what he was and still is.

John We heard you, and we get that you feel that way. And I'm not here to argue with you, because you're entitled to your opinion. Most of the recent comments in response to you have simply been saying that we aren't willing to state with absolute confidence much of anything about how the guy will perform several years from now. We aren't arguing with you, although we do wonder how one can be so certain about that. Tom Brady was a MUCH worse prospect coming out of college than Allen and if asked, MILLIONS of football fans would have said with absolute confidence that he would never become one of the greatest QBs in the history of the game. The absolute confidence of those millions of fans had absolutely nothing to do with what Brady became, and your absolute confidence, right or wrong, has nothing to do with what Allen will become. Odds are one thing; certainty in predicting the future is quite another.

You can't use one half in the guy's first preseason game to determine if he's an accurate thrower. New game, new offense, new line, new stadium, new receivers. It's simply too early.

Hey, we haven't overdone the arguing. Just back and forth a couple times. So long as it's clear, and it is now, that it's Johns opinion, I'm fine. Like you, I think it doesn't make sense to think we can know what kind of QB he will be in five years. If he doesnt think it will happen, fine. He may be right. I just bristle when someone tells me no other outcome is possible. I don't think there's a lot gain doing that. I agree, there's nothing to lose. And all live game time is beneficial. You don't see coaches do it very often any more. I would guess they don't because they see little benefit, and they don't want all the QB controversy distraction. When you insert a guy who looks like legitimate competition to your starter, then everybody, including the team, begins to get distracted. Coaches don't want that. But McD is fearless. He showed it starting Peterman. So maybe he would do what you suggest. As I said, I don't see that it hurts.

I see I've sparked an ongoing discussion about this. I think what you say is simply foolish. It was crazy talk 20 years ago to say that by 2015 more photographs will have been taken on people's telephones than with cameras in the history of the world, but it happened. To say that something is impossible five years from now is simply foolish. Josh Allen is a superior athlete. I don't know you, but I'm a decent athlete and I'm absolutely certain that I can't truly comprehend what it means to be an athlete in his class. He's bigger, faster, stronger than I am, and probably than you too. He throws a football in a way that very, very few people on the planet can throw a football. He's going to have five years of year-round training and coaching with the best trainers and coaches in the country. He's going to practice and play. To think that it's impossible - IMPOSSIBLE - for a man like that with that kind of developmental activity in front of him can't be as accurate a thrower as two guys who clearly are not as good pure athletes is simply foolish. That's like saying that a 21-year old golfer ranked 50th in putting in the PGA today cannot possibly be the best putter on the tour five years from now. All kinds of people in all kinds of disciplines - actors, musicians, doctors, lawyers, athletes - get better at what they do through study, practice and coaching. Lawyers and doctors are MUCH better at what they do five years after they finish school. This idea that some people have that among all the detailed disciplines in the world, passing accuracy is somehow the only thing that a professional cannot improve is simply foolish. Allen's a great athlete with a great arm. To be OF THE OPINION that he never will develop supreme accuracy is fine. That's your opinion. But to suggest that a superior athlete with a great arm ABSOLUTELY CANNOT develop that accuracy with years of coaching, training and practice is simply foolish.

I wasn't talking about sitting. I have mixed views about sitting. I was talking about the value of bringing in your backup guy lat in the game where you've already lost or you need a miracle comeback. I think you learn some things about how to play QB by sitting, watching and studying. You learn some things by playing. What I said was I don't think that playing in mop-up time is very valuable experience. It isn't a substitute for being a starter and preparing and playing every week. Sitting is fine. Playing right away is fine. Different approaches for different guys may make sense. But getting five minutes of playing time late in five lost-cause games doesn't add much to either approach. Adds a little, but it's not a strategy that I think is worth pursuing.

That was a different era. Playing in mop-up time, ahead or behind, doesn't do much for a qb's development. Real growth comes from preparing, playing, film study, preparing, playing.

E L W A Y

I will say with absolute certainty that there is not a timetable. I think if you go back to the press conferences you will find that both McDermott and Beane have said so. And I'd guess there is not one coach on the Bills who would say with absolute certainty that Allen will never be as precise as Brady or Brees. Allen is going to be a much better QB in five years than he is now.