Shaw66

Thanks for the data. It's pretty persuasive. Amazing that Brady was 13% on lonSo I'd say you're right, Brady wouldn't have made the throw that was necessary. You say you're misunderstanding me, and maybe you and others are. Here's how I feel about it. The only stat that matters is wins. The QB is the most important player on the field, and his job, like it or not, is to deliver wins. Fourth quarter drives, big plays when his team needs them. Nothing matters except wins. It doesn't matter if you've completed 25 in a row; if you need number 26 to win the game and you don't get it, the QB hasn't done all that he needs to do. Allen, from the reports I've seen and the portion of the game I saw, had a game that once again showed that he's a special talent. On his final play, he showed that he's a special talent. But Allen had one more thing he had to do in the game, and that was stop and set his feet before he threw. He didn't do that, and as a result underthrew the ball. I'd guess if you asked him he'd tell you he underthrew it by five yards - that is, he intended to lead Clay to a spot directly on line with the throw he made, but farther toward the sideline and 4-5 yards deeper in the end zone. He didn't make the throw he needed or wanted, and he missed by a lot. . It was a catchable ball, for sure. Any ball that hits the receiver in the hands in the NFL is a catchable ball. So Allen gave his teammate a chance to make a play, which means that Allen did the minimum on the the play. However, his job is to win the game, not to do the minimum. Compare this throw to the throw up the left sideline to Jones that was called incomplete after review. Now, that was a much tougher catch than Clay's, but an NFL receiver is supposed to make that catch. He ran his route, he made his cut, the ball was delivered in a good spot for him to make the catch. THAT was the kind of throw that wins football games, but Jones couldn't come up with it. Think about Clay. He is not one of the great tight ends. He's had more than his share of drops. He's an all-purpose tight end, not primarily a receiving tight end. He'd just run around for about 8 seconds at the end of a long, hard game. He made a lousy break on the ball, made an awkward attempt to get his hands on the ball, and as a result needed to make a pure hands catch on the way to ground. This wasn't Stevie Johnson in stride dropping a perfect throw in the end zone to win the game. Clay isn't any place close to being a number 1 receiver, he hasn't ever been known for consistently plucking balls out of the air or off the ground, this wasn't a play where Clay was the primary receiver and came open in stride as the play was designed. That was a low-probability catch for him. I'm not defending Clay, and I'm not saying he couldn't and shouldn't have caught it. What I am saying is that looking back on Josh Allen's career, if he is going to be a great QB, he's going to win those games, not have spectacular highlights from games he lost. He did a lot of great things in that game, but unless that final pass is completed, Josh Allen didn't have a great game. That throw five yards deeper for a TD is part of Allen's all-time highlight reel; the only highlight reel the actual play makes is the highlight of greatest Bills' disappointments, along with Stevie's drop and Terence McGee's kickoff return against the Saints. Allen will do better next time. That is, he'll be great, and the Bills will win.

Really? I guess I never thought about it, but I'd guess that Brees for sure and Brady probably can. And 55 was all that was necessary. But maybe you're right. Here;s Brees throwing 55. Brady throwing 62.

Thanks for the info. As for your view on Allen, I agree completely. I'm really excited.

Hapless is honest and straight forward. What he did was explain to me why everyone was so excited. And, as usual, he was right.

Thanks. I did say that. Could have been said better. But I was also completely clear that Clay should have caught it. I think Clay is unimportant. You and I agree that Allen should have better, needs to be better on plays like that. The whole game is on the QB, every game, every day. The QBs know that. It's the job they want. You can bet that Allen has replayed it 100 times in his head, thinking about what he should have done. And you can bet he's spending no time thinking about Clay. Yes, Allen made a play that was good enough to win the game and his tight end didn't. But Allen didn't make play he should have.

Absolutely. He has shown great pocket awareness, and I think he certainly can know whether people are around him. Did anyone listen to McDermott's press conference yesterday? For a loss, he was amazingly positive about Allen. He kept saying that Allen has grown, and he can do this and do that. I think we're looking at a star. I don't think there's anything holding him back.

I didn't put it all on Allen. This is about the third or fourth time I've said that. A quality NFL receiver catches that ball. I don't care about Clay. As I said, all that matter is the QB, and Allen has to learn to do exactly what you described He has to learn that when he has time, he has to relax and use the time to put himself in position to throw. He was tired and put everything he had into it, which probably explains why the throw was so ugly. For me, right now it's all about the future. I want Allen to be a HOF QB and he looks like one. Except a HOF QB wins that game with a good throw. Yes, Clay should have caught it. Everything about how he reacted to the ball was wrong, and even so a guy with reliable hands would have caught it. He didn't catch it. Yes, if you care about the outcome of the game, maybe he was the goat. I don't care about Clay. He isn't going to improve, and he isn't going to be on the team in a few months or a year or two. Clay's not going to win any Super Bowls for the Bills. He could be on a Super Bowl winning team, but he isn't going to win it. Allen is, if he can learn things about how to settle down and make a good throw when he has time.

After I wrote this I saw his postgame interview, and he did in fact say he was tired. I'm sure that's part of the reason, maybe even the sole reason, his throw was so ugly. It was uglier by a factor of 3 than any other throw we've seen him make. Still, if he was tired, he has to make a better throw. He wasn't running for his life. He had been running for his life, but he had escaped. He had plenty of room. He threw it across his body because he didn't use the time he had to get his body set, and he threw it 50 yards, not 60 yards. You ask a good question about Clay. What WAS he doing back there. And again, he should have caught it anyway. But Allen should have thrown it better. I don't care about Clay - he won't be here in three years. But Allen will be, and I want him winning ball games for the Bills.

Disagree. Clay had plenty of room to the sideline - Allen could have led Clay there - he was already running in that direction, and still not have forced Clay to make a fancy two-toes-inside-the-line. Hell, he could have just put more air under the throw he DID make, so Clay would have had more time to get there. There was plenty of room. And Allen agrees. He said the ball didn't come out of his hand correctly, something went wrong. The clear implication was that he had a much better place to put the ball than he did. Brady never would have gotten there. Brees maybe. But I was talking just about the throw, not the scramble. Any of those guys who got there and had the time to set his feet would definitely have made the throw. It was 50 yards in the air, and they all can throw it at least that far. All that was needed was a fly ball for the receiver to settle under.

Look, I don't disagree about Clay having to catch the ball. He should have caught it, and BillsRDue said something I hadn't thought of, which was how slow Clay reacted to the ball. If he'd broken on it better, it would have been an easier catch for him. But Clay isn't the most athletic guy. He isn't a Kelce or a Graham or even a Gates. He's a good solid tight end, less than we hoped he'd be when acquired. Allen is going to be throwing his entire career to guys who aren't ideal athletes at their position. Not every wideout, tight end, running back and blocking back is going to be the best guy in the league. It's completely clear listening to Allen that he didn't put that ball where he wanted it. I'm not trying to place blame for the loss. I'm looking at the QB who can take us to the promised land, and he has to be better than than he was on the last play. I think he will be. He just needed to calm down.

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 Bills Still Have A Lot to Work On So some old friends came to town Saturday to see their son play for Arizona against the UConn men. They got me a ticket and I went to the game. At 1:00 p.m. I went to a sports bar after the game and caught the fourth quarter of the Bills’ loss to Dolphins. I haven’t watched any video except a few highlights. I haven’t even studied the stats. In case you’re interested, Arizona won, but the UConn men are back! Dan Hurley’s the new coach, and he’s for real. The roster is the same but their game is TOTALLY different. Don’t sleep on the Huskies. How am I feeling about the Bills? Great! Why? Because it’s all about the QB – everything else is just details, and I’m confident that McDermott and Beane will get the details straightened out over the next year or two. It’s all about the QB, and – MAN – the guy can play! Watching the Bills with Allen on the field is a completely different experience from watching the Bills any other time since Bledsoe left. The whole offense looks better. Six weeks ago my cousin told me Zay Jones would not make the roster of any other NFL team. He isn’t saying that now. Foster looks like a real receiver. The pass protection is better. Allen has made the whole team better. I came away from the game with three important impressions, important at least to me: 1. I’ve said it before, but it’s worth repeating: McDermott is failing at his job in at least one big aspect, and that’s getting the penalties under control. These guys are killing themselves with penalties. 2. I’ve been saying for weeks that Allen isn’t making rookie mistakes. Well, the interception on the throw to Benjamin was a rookie mistake. No way that Allen should have missed that defender. Rookie mistakes are okay if (a) the guy making the mistake is a rookie and (b) he learns from them. I hope Allen learned something. 3. Allen is a spectacular passer, but spectacular isn’t good enough if he isn’t consistent. He can’t overthrow Foster on the deep ball, and he can’t underthrow Clay on the fourth down game winner. He can’t be a star in the league if he doesn’t make those throws. No one connects on every throw, and the overthrow of Foster was awfully close. Brady, Brees and Rodgers might have overthrown him. Still, gotta hit them. Yes, Clay could have caught that ball to win the game, and I’m sure he said he should have caught it. He’s caught balls like that before. But that’s beside the point; that play was all on Allen. Yes, he made an outstanding scramble to give himself time to make the throw – most QBs would have been sacked at some point on that play. But then he turned into a rookie. He had time – he’d run away from everyone, and he had plenty of time to get his body turned and his feet set, particularly important because he had been running left and now was throwing right. And when he found Clay he could see that Clay was all alone with a lot of open space toward the sideline. Allen had plenty of time to turn, set his feet and get the ball to Clay for an uncontested catch. It was a long throw, to be sure – it traveled about 50 yards in the air, and to make it an easy catch for Clay it needed to go 55 maybe 60 yards. Allen, properly set, can make that throw all day. I think Allen let the moment beat him. He knew he had it, but he didn’t have his emotions sufficiently under control to stop and make the play he should have. Brady, Brees and Rodgers would have made it. It was a rookie mistake. It cost the Bills the game, and he knows it. All I know is that watching the Bills is FUN again. I’d forgotten how much fun it can be, after all those years of watching all those other teams with all those other quarterbacks. I’m going to miss most of the Jets game, too, but I’ll be in Buffalo for the Lions. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

I predict people around here will be disappointed by the Bills in free agency. 1. They believe in building through the draft. 2. They don't like big contracts, except for QBs. (I don'tknow this - I'm guessing.) 3. They want guys who are willing to buy into the process; a lot of guys don't. 4. They don't want guys who aren't good candidates for the process, guys like Ramsey and Beckham. I think it all adds up to not many big name guys and more Trent Murphys and the like. That's the kind of guy they want. Guys who understand that's who they are will want to play for McDermott, because that's what he appreciates. Another reason they will sign less well known players is that they are patient. They stick to the discipline, too. They are willing to stay with guys a while because they believe he will grow. Some coaches would have cut Foster, he looked so bad. McD was willing to wait. Bottom line is I think guys who understand what McBeane are doing, guys who want to be part of that, will come even though it's Buffalo. They want to be part of the system McBeane are building. Whether it works, that's a different question. Just because you have a system, it doesn't mean that you have the right system. But they are going to stick with the system, the process, for as long as they're in Buffalo. And I'd guess the Pegulas gave them at least three years.

Didn't go a lot before; even less now.

One thing I keep saying is that McD is a closet Belichick worshiper. McD has his own system, but his objective is to have a team that functions like Belichick's. So let me ask you this: When was the last time you saw one of Belichick's players run his mouth like Ramsey? Right, like, never. Don't expect to see any player who behaves like Ramsey in a Bills uniform.

I've been pondering this comment, and its depth and complexity deserves some kind of prize. You've left me with nothing to say.

The night of the draft, my order of preference was Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen. With Mayfield and Darnold gone, when the Bills traded up, at the last moment I waffled and decided I wanted Allen over Rosen. We don't know what order Beane had them in, but we can now see that Beane knew what he was getting in Allen.

I agree with you. I'm the only one who's truly objective!!!! I don't know 10% of what McD knows about football, but I know this: McD's approach is do your job and eliminate mistakes. Now, I can't tell if a guy is doing his job. I don't know what he isn't doing that McD wants him to do, like making a downfield read presnap, but most of us can see most of the mistakes. QB is the position where some of the mistakes are pretty obvious. I'm not seeing Allen making the obvious mistakes; all I'm seeing is positive. Sure, there are any number of things that could go wrong with Allen over the next three years, which means there are no guarantees about his career, but I can tell you two things for sure: 1. He's a higher probability success right now than he was on draft night. He is out playing Darnold and Rosen, and good as Mayfield has played, plenty of people would take Allen over Mayfield in a draft today. 2. The media may not be talking about Allen, but the guys whose job it is to study film for the Dolphins, Jets and Lions are talking about him. They're seeing a guy who can make all the throws, who has the ability to extend plays and who is finding receivers down field. Those guys watching film aren't saying Allen is "raw" or a "project." They're going to the DC and saying "look at this," and the DC is game planning for Allen.

One other thing I forgot in the OP. Daboll. I don't think the change in the offense was caused all by Allen. Well, maybe it was. The change to the speedier receiver corps accompanied a change in the plays they were running. The jet sweep was real, the quick screens, the deep crossing routes. Maybe it's just that they only run with those pass plays with a strong-armed quarterback. Whatever, it seemed to me that the offense had more of an up-tempo feel, more modern. Another hopeful sign.

My goodness!!! You got a bit worked up about this didn't you? You described a whole side of this - his leadership, that we all hope for and wondered about. But as you say so well, the evidence is already there that he has what it takes. You're right about Allen and Fitzy. Fitzy was a big time competitor and it showed on the field every play. Allen is showing it, too, with a different skill set. But we're Bills fans, and we've learned to expect the worst. This can't be, can it? We're all afraid to say it. Everything feels different when he's in the game.

You can be sure the message is "don't take chances unless it's important." What he needs to do is refine his judgment about what's important - right now he seems to think every play is important. Plus, the play calling has to change. Those two zone reads down on the goal line late in the game need to go. The TD wasn't as important as his health, so they shouldn't be calling his number down there. Some other situation, maybe, but not that one. There's a cumulative effect to taking those hits, and the Bills shouldn't be adding to the number of hits needlessly.

Yeah, it's pretty surprising to see him going as fast as he does. He doesn't have great acceleration in the way that the quick sprinters have, but on the other hand it only takes him a few strides to get up to speed. I think his speed comes his size and athletic ability. Big guys have long legs, long legs result in big strides, and big strides let you cover more ground than smaller strides. But it's harder athletically to get a big body going and doing all the stuff needed to take advantage of the bigger strides. Only really good athletes can do it, and Allen turns out to be one of those. The extreme example is Usain Bolt (no, I'm not saying Allen runs like Bolt). But Bolt combines size with athletic ability, and the smaller athletes simply have no chance to go as fast as he does.

Ducky - In response to you and transplant and others: I'm a big believer that the passer rating tells us a lot about how good a QB is. The best QBs all have good passer ratings, and some not so good QBs may have a good passer rating now and then but don't stay up in the top 10-15. Allen's passer rating is nowhere in the range it needs to be by those standards, so I thought a lot about whether to say the things I did about him before i started writing. I just kept going back to the games, thinking about the plays and asking myself about the bad plays he made (I had trouble finding many), and if he wasn't making bad plays, why was he 8 for 19? Bottom line for me: 1. He's showing some great, great stuff. Throwing ability, poise and awareness, decision making, leadership. 2. He ISN'T showing rookie mistakes. Not taking dumb sacks, snot making dumb throws, not getting confused at the line of scrimmage. 3. His shortcomings are, as I said talking with someone here, that he isn't a veteran yet. The details, the little things, the things that veterans see and do that create three or four completions a game that rookies don't get, or that result in 20 yard gains instead of seven, he isn't seeing and doing that yet. It would be a miracle if he were. But I'm confident that will come, because he's clearly a competitor and a guy who wants to do better. And his Wonderlic score says that he has the kind of brain that will allow him to do it.

I have no problem with Shady. I'm not seeing runs where I think "two years ago, he makes that cut." Shady's running style is based on using his quickness in space. He has to have one man, not two, to beat, and a little space to move in. He's rarely in any space this season. Like everyone else, I'm assuming they'll upgrade the offensive line next season, and then you'll see two things: 1. The old Shady. 2. Allen throwing from the pocket. I don't think he's lost anything. But I think you've touched on the important point, which is that MOST defenses are getting quicker. They're playing safeties at linebacker, linebackers as DEs. And they're scheming more. So Shady's running style may be as effective as it was five years ago.

I don't like his haircut.

I think there were several things going on on that play. One was he didn't want the penalty. But another was that he wanted turn Bortles to the inside in hopes of tackling him in bounds. Bortles mad a nice move on that play.