Shaw66

I think he probably already has lost the team, but you're right. He'd be facing a player revolt if he started Peterman.

I don't agree. Last week was the fork in the road, and he took it. Whether McD knew it or not, benching Taylor last week meant that it's a virtual certainty that Taylor will not be a Bill in 2019, and maybe not even 2018. If the Bills don't cut him, he's going to get out as soon as his contract permits, which is the end of 2018. What can McDermott possibly say to Taylor or do that will make Taylor believe anything other than that he's the QB only until the next warm body comes along? In Taylor's eyes, McDermott is so desperate to replace him that McDermott actually started a guy who was totally unprepared for live NFL action, so why would Taylor believe that McDermott won't do it again? So from that point of view, I suppose the only choice at QB is Peterman. Why,? Because it's now a certainty that Taylor isn't the QB of the future, so you may as well play the next guy in line, even if he looks like an incredible longshot. The problem with that is McDermott risks losing the rest of the team, because as the HC you're asking 44 other guys to go out there, play hard and risk injury when you've left your best chance to win at your most important position on the bench. Do I want to play for that guy? If I'm Kyle do I want to come back for another year? If I'm Incognito? If I'm Matthews? Who wants to play for a coach who doesn't play the best players. Starting Peterman was a colossally stupid decision. It made sense only if McD was sure that Peterman is an NFL starter, and if McD was sure Peterman is an NFL starter, then there are serious questions, huge questions, about his ability to evaluate talent.

I never really thought much about it, but I think you're absolutely correct about this. Fans complained that Jauron's philosophy was "playing not to lose," and McDermott is very much in the same mold. Bend don't dreak defense, conservative offense to run the clock, keep the game close so that you have a shot to win in the end. In retrospect, the Jaguars game told us all we needed to know. McDermott didn't open up the offense until literally the last drive or two. It was completely clear that he was content to be behind so long as he trailed by less than two scores. Then, late in the game, he opened up the offense and the Bills actually threatened to tie it. In the following weeks, we saw the same things. That's a good philosophy to follow when your team isn't competitive in the talent category. Play conservatively and hope for something good to happen. Maybe that's all that happened in the first seven games: maybe the Bills were just lucky, catching the Falcons when they were stumbling around, catching Denver when THEIR wheels were falling off. Maybe it was just luck. And maybe Beane and McD knew it. And maybe they traded Dareus intending to tank. And maybe they started Peterman because they knew the season already was in the crapper. I'd be okay with that, but then why in the world would you trade a second for Benjamin? If you believe you're in total rebuild mode, you don't make that move. You know what's really maddening about this, from the offensive side? Rex comes in and says it's going to be ground and pound. He brings in a run-oriented offensive coordinator. One game into his second season, he fires the offensive coordinator, the Bills open up the offense, at least relatively speaking, and the offense flourishes, at least relatively speaking. McD comes in and brings in a run-oriented offensive coordinator who takes away much of what Taylor does best and asks him to succeed doing the things he isn't so so good at. And what is that ? It's staying in the pocket. And you know what's amazing about that? Look around the league - offensive lines all over the league are struggling to protect their QBs in the pocket, and everyone is saying you need a mobile QB to win. New England is the only exception. Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Mariota, Tannehill, Wilson, Watson, Smith - those are the kind of QBs everyone wants. Eli, Palmer, Flacco - those are the guys you don't want. So McD brings him an OC and gives him a QB who fits the current model, and the OC installs an offense designed to restrict the QB's mobility. Jauron at least had an excuse. He didn't have a QB.

I agree the Bills were in the market for a QB next year in any case. I think the Peterman move last Sunday closed the door on Taylor being the QB beyond 2018 (maybe even beyond 2017), so it makes the QB search much more urgent. Now the Bills have to use the 2018 draft to get their starting QB for 2019, and that becomes the number 1 priority in the draft. If they'd just kept Taylor as a starter, they could have been much more flexible in their approach, taking a QB as he presented himself, maybe late first round, maybe second round, maybe not until 2019 or even 2020. A month ago, before the Benjamin trade, I thought the future looked pretty clear: renegotiate Taylor's deal and keep him for several more years, knowing he's not great but, as I said, serviceable, and used those six picks in the first three rounds to rebuild the lines, and maybe also looking for McCoy's replacement. Hope to get a bunch of those 2018 draft picks into the lineup in 2018, and by 2019 you have a lot of seasoned young players. Also probably pick up a free agent or two. In the meantime, you're hoping that Taylor continues to develop in the areas where he's currently deficient. And, as I said, be on the lookout for a good QB prospect somewhere in the draft without trading up. Now they've given up one draft pick for a player who's going to be a free agent after 2018 and who will be looking at a Bills team that in all likelihood won't have a QB. So the Bills went from a team a QB and six high draft picks to a team without a QB and five high draft picks. Gotta say, I'm really enjoying talking about this with you. And, to backtrack a little, I agree with you that the problem with the defense certainly could be BOTH talent and gap integrity. And the problem with Williams most likely is quickness, not strength. I hadn't thought that carefully about it write it clearly - I was just thinking that Williams isn't as "strong" a player as he used to be, not so much in the physical sense as in the effectiveness sense.

I have doubts about PFF but let's assume this is a reasonable assessment (I think it is). That's what I think is such a disaster to have made the Peterman move. The Bills have a serviceable qb that they've now relatedness the trash heap, forcing them to be in the market next year for a qb. That wasn't necessary.

I think the D line is shot. A few years ago you had Mario Williams, Dareus, and Kyle near his prime. Hughes got to be a finesse player. No one pushed them around. Now there's a weaker Kyle, a no-name substitute for Marcell and no Mario. It looks to me like the defensive line is being pushed off the ball on every play, because they simply don't have the strength to hold their ground. That leaves one offensive lineman and a blocking back free to attack the middle linebacker and someone else, and that's why the defense is getting gashed by running backs. That's not "gap integrity" and I don't see that coaching is going to help. Add to that a middle linebacker who's too slow for the position that McD wants him to play, an outside linebacker who's a pass rusher and mediocre in other areas, and an old journeyman linebacker. McD can coach all he wants, I think that line is in trouble. Dareus, when he was on the field, was the one guy who could stabilize things. If McDermott understood what was going on with his defense, he NEVER would have allowed the Dareus trade. He allowed it because, just like in the case of Peterman, he thought he had a replacement who could play. In both cases he was horribly wrong. I really am worried now that McD is just a kid playing at being a head coach. Now he's not naming a starter for Sunday. Does he think he's going to get some spectacular advantage out of not announcing a starter? I could be the Chiefs' defensive coordinator. I'd get up in front of my team and say the following: "Boys, Taylor will be the starter. Even McDermott isn't stupid enough to put that kid out there again. So our defense will be just like in practice against Alex Smith, except Smith is about four times better. Taylor will run like Alex. Keep him in the pocket, and he'll eat the ball. "AND, if McDermott is even stupider than I think he is and puts in Peterman, pound the hell out of him every time he goes back to pass. "We'll be fine. Take the rest of the day off."

Huckleberry and Hapless are REALLY depressing me. It's hard to argue with their take on recent history. I believed p, I was sure, that McDermott was the answer. Maybe he is. But right now I think he's looking at a total rebuild, and there's no evidence that he has what it takes. Will the Pegulas give him and Beane another four years to prove themselves? There's a good chance it will take that long. I say all the time that you can't tell who the good and bad teams are until late October and into November. It looks like we're finding out. Oh, and good luck signing free agents next Spring. Unless the Bills miraculously win 3 or 4 games, it's hard to imagine a free agent getting excited about signing with the Bills.

Dilly Dilly!

The last three games have been such devastating losses that i couldn't think clearly about the team last night when I was writing the OP. Really. I didn't have the energy or mental focus or heart to spend time thinking or writing about what's actually wrong. And, of course, all kinds of things are wrong. Thanks to everyone who's posted here with actual substantive comments about the team. Here are some thoughts now that my head has cleared a bit: I think that the team is badly short of talent, and its best talent is old - McCoy, Incognito, Kyle. I think McDermott brought new energy and a great message that the team bought into, and the energized mentality that McDermott created masked the team's weaknesses during the early part of the season. They won with energy, emotion and execution. Then as teams got a chance to see film of the regular season Bills, they figured out the weaknesses and began exploiting them. Energy and emotion only go so far; if you're short of talent, when the opposition knows what you're going to do, you're in trouble. That's what happened to the Bills. Then, to compound the problem, the one dominant athlete the Bills had on the defensive front seven, Dareus, got traded. Williams is past his prime and never demands double teams. Hughes is a good complementary player - that is, when the rest of the Dline is good, he is able to make plays, but he isn't a significant disruptor on his own. Yes, Dareus wasn't playing every down, but he WAS playing enough to be a presence, and he WAS demanding double teams. Then, as others have said, the Bills have weak linebackers. Brown is too slow to play the middle the way McDermott's defense demands. Homber and Alexander simply aren't very good in pass coverage. Combined, they leave lots of open space in the underneath zones. It took teams a few weeks to figure it out, but for the past few weeks the Bills have given up easy completions repeatedly in that area. They struggle in run defense, in part because the offensive linemen aren't double teaming any defensive linemen, so blockers can get to the second level and handle the linebackers. So the linebackers know they have to get up to stop the run, and that makes them vulnerable to play action, exacerbating their problems in pass defense. The Bills are equally challenged on the offensive line. Wood is average, RIchie does a good job, Glenn is the best of a weak group, but he isn't on the field enough. The right side is still a problem. Collectively, they aren't getting the job done in the run or in pass protection. The coaching also hasn't helped. Ayjent describes it well. Dennison has taken a reasonably effective 2016 offense and restructured it. The blocking schemes aren't as effective as last season. The pass protection is worse. And Taylor has been asked to play a game that deemphasizes his strengths and exposes his weaknesses. The guy has a really good arm, he's pretty accurate. He can run, he can scramble, and he can throw on the run. Add it all up, and you've got a mess. It means the Bills need some defensive linemen, some linebackers, some offensive linemen and a new quarterback who can play the system Dennison (and McDermott) want to play. That's a lot of new talent they have to add. They could get a new offensive coordinator, and maybe they should, but to what end? To resurrect Taylor? Sure, you redesign your offense when you have a Peyton Manning but although Taylor can be a serviceable QB, he's no Manning. Plus, McDermott now has told Taylor he isn't the QB McD wants, and that probably makes a long-term McD-Taylor relationship untenable. That's what I see, and I don't like how it looks.

I have to agree with this, particularly the bold. I've been saying for weeks that Taylor should take deep drops and stay behind the entire rush, not step into the pocket. When the entire rush is in front of him he can escape backward and then use his speed to get outside the ends. Wilson and Brees escape backward a lot.

Great story. Thanks. You're more of am optimist than I if you think Dennison and Taylor will open up. Taylor maybe, but he'll be wearing a different uniform.

You just have to hope Beane and McD know what they're doing. Problem is that the Peterman fiasco sure makes it look like they don't. Since 1960.

Three. I thought they needed help on the two lines. They could live with Taylor and Benji and Matthews if they kept him. Now I think it's a total rebuild. The team that goes to the playoffs will have essentially no one left from the Whaley years.

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 Ramblings of a Madman A clever writer could produce a great faux Edgar Allan Poe short story about a man who gradually loses his mind watching the Buffalo Bills for too long. What’s “too long”? Well, lately, “too long” might be five minutes. For the deep-seated, complex psychosis of a Poe protagonist, it takes 30 years or more. I won’t write the story, at least not today. However, if what follows seems incoherent, inconsistent, out of touch with reality, okay, flat out insane, well, it’s because I suffer the kind of madness that can come from over-exposure to the Buffalo Bills. I drank the Sean McDermott Kool-Aid. Looking back a few months, I see now that I was so desperate for the Bills finally to get it right, I was ready to believe in anyone. I was ready to believe Al Franken would take us to the Super Bowl. So I drank the Kool Aid, and it hasn’t flushed through my system. I still believe. Why do I still believe? I don’t know. I can’t explain it. Having watched most of the first half of the latest Bills disaster, a 54-24 drubbing at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers (I missed Nathan Peterman’s first two interceptions), any rational person would not, could not believe that Sean McDermott could lead anyone to the Super Bowl, even if he were an Uber driver using Google maps. The man actually said that he believed that Nathan Peterman gave the Bills the best chance to win. How could a man who has spent every day of his adult life studying football and every day for the last six months watching Nathan Peterman not see that, at least right now, Nathan Peterman couldn’t possibly be the best option? And yet, I still believe. Call me crazy. I can tell you what makes me believe, but I can’t expect you to think I’m sane. I believe there is a process, and the process will work. McDermott is a student, and he’s been studying how to do this for a long time. He’s smart, he’s determined, and he isn’t a quitter. He will push the process. Beane is cut from the same cloth. They will add talent and mold the talent to fit their systems. I believe that McDedrmott can lead, that men will follow him. Maybe not these men. There has to be more than one man on that team today who is wondering what he got himself into as he watches the total implosion of the team and the bewilderingly bad decision to start Peterman. It may be that McDermott needs new men, different men, men who haven’t lived through the past three weeks. Those different men are coming. In July it didn’t look like this team was being rebuilt, but it’s inevitable now. The list of players who have left is long, and retiring and departing free agents will make it longer. Now, with the Peterman fiasco, McDermott has orchestrated the inevitable departure of Tyrod Taylor. Brandon Beane had a feasible route going forward: build a team around Taylor, replacing him when the opportunity arose. Maybe get an offensive coordinator willing to play to Taylor’s strengths (now that everything is lost, Dennison finally started calling Taylor’s number in the second half, letting him move behind the line of scrimmage and run the ball). Use all of those draft picks to build an offensive line and a defensive line. Take some time to find the next quarterback. That’s all out the window now. Taylor will leave as soon as possible. Why would he stay? McDermott and Dennison have so little faith in Taylor’s talents that they actually believed Peterman was better. Can you imagine McDermott going to Taylor, hat in hand, saying “I made a mistake. You’re my man from now on.”? Taylor’s response? “See ya!” So it’s a total rebuild. Unless Peterman has a miraculous turnaround, the Bills need a quarterback right now. There no longer is any reason to pay McCoy, and there’s no reason McCoy would want to stay. There’s no reason for Incognito to want to stay. Matthews has been a forgotten man since he got to Buffalo. Kyle will retire. I give McDermott credit. He has guts. He had the guts to make the Peterman move, and he had the guts to bench him after a disastrous half. I can believe in a guy with courage like that. McDermott has made a mess for himself to clean up. Fun fact: Nick O’Leary is Fuzzy Zoeller’s bocce partner. The game was lost by halftime. And the outcome wouldn’t have been different if Taylor had started, because for the third straight week the Bills defense failed to show up. (It’s becoming clear that the Bills just don’t have a defense.) But Taylor showed what he is: a professional quarterback. He played under control, he threw well, he ran well, he threw no interceptions. Once he stayed in the pocket too long and fumbled when hit; otherwise, he scrambled well and got some things done. When the Bills got down to the goal line, when Taylor couldn’t run it in and when McCoy couldn’t, when Clay took a penalty and then dropped a touchdown pass, Taylor still hung in and threw it to McCoy for the score. Two professionals, doing their jobs. Call me crazy, but I like McDermott. He and Beane got rid of Watkins, got rid of Darby, let Woods go and Gilmore go, got rid of Dareus. And now they have, seemingly nothing. By all rights, Terry Pegula should hold a press conference on Wednesday and announce that he’s decided that Al Franken gives the Bills the best chance to win and ship McDermott out. But I believe the Pegulas believe in McDermott, too. They believe they have to give McDermott and Beane the time to implement their process. They believe, I suppose, starting Peterman was just a mistake that the coaches and the team will move on from. I’m not ready to chain someone to the wall in the basement and brick up the doorway, but, man, watching this stuff can drive a man crazy. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

If the leak nhave ended why were there WEEKS of rumors about Dareus being traded?

It is a good article. As someone said, a bit harsh. Maybe better, it's prematurely harsh. Let's see what the next few weeks bring. After all, even his article speculates about Bills going 8-8, so how can he say the Bills are bad? 8-8 isn't bad. When he scrambles Taylor l o KS down field every bit as much as Wilson and Brees and Rodgers. So he's wrong about that. But it may be that's he's right about Taylor screwing up the offensive scheme. I don't know how he knowsnthat, but it sounds credible. We will see. Actually it's really quite good. Similar to the things I said in that much of what the author says about the team really I don't supported by the evidence. As I said, I like the conclusions about Taylor being done and not the right guy and Peterman probably not the right guy either, but I think a lot of statements about the Bills don't reflect what the Bills actually have been.

I agree that decision making is the most critical factor. And speed of release is probably second. But when those are equal in 2 qbs, arm strength limits the guy with the weaker arm. And speed of release is affected by arm strength. The guy with the weak arm needs more of a wind up to zip the ball, and the wind up takes time. From what we've seen it looks like Peterman is excellent on the decision making end and that's what's encouraging. Don't you see that if the defense knows you can't and won't make certain throws the defense has an advantage that they don't have against better qbs?

I was talking about things like the bolded language, not how the WCO works in the ideal. And it isn't only when you're improvising. There are plenty of plays designed for the qb to throw when he recognizes something. Like an out pattern. Two qbs, different arm strength, the guy with the weaker arm has to release the ball earlier than the other in order to get the ball there on time. That means he has to recognize his key earlier than the other guy, which means he has less time to look at what's happening before deciding. That's a disadvantage, because the longer you have to look at the play develop, the better your decision making will be.

I agree. I hate the national coverage. But it isn't going to change. If you're a small market city, they're only going to talk about you if you win consistently. The Colts got lots of coverage when Peyton had them in the Super Bowl hunt, but not now. The amazing thing is that they don't know anything that's going on with the team BECAUSE THEY DON'T HAVE TO. Most of the fans around the country don't know anything about the team, either, and since they aren't going to talk about the team much, the little bit they say is always the same old stuff that most of the ignorant fans know, so it sounds right. They're not in the busines of having good information. They're in the business of getting ratings. They get ratings by playing to the big cities and the masses. The masses don't care about Buffalo, so the media don't talk about the Bills. The truth hurts.

That's exactly the point. The guys with strong arms (meaning mechanics that allow them to throw with greater velocity) don't wind up. Quick thinking without a strong arm doesn't get you much in most cases. Fitzy was quick thinking, weak arm. Taylor looks like slow thinking, strong arm. Peterman, we hope, is quick thinking with a good enough arm to get the job done. We'll see.

I agree. Some of that is athleticism, but as you say, he has practiced. He's learned to throw the ball from all kinds of positions. Watch the replays when he makes those throws. He always finds a way to get his body, particularly his upper body, into the throw. It's often just a quick twitch, but it gives him to deliver the ball on a line instead of throwing a wounded duck. Everybody says this, but I don't think there are plenty. Or even a few. If I have a strong arm and I think quickly, I'm better than your guy who thinks quickly with a weak arm. Can you say FItzpatrick?

Yeah, I agree that if you can't make that throw, you're not the guy. But arm strength also allows the best QBs to make throws when their bodies aren't in position to have perfect mechanics. It allows them to throw deep more accurately. Those things are also nice to have. But you're right that the throw you're talking about is essential to high end quarterbacking.

I think it often can be increased with coaching and training. My son is a good athlete. In Little League he couldn't throw. I started watching kids throw and studied a little. Then I showed him the proper hip and shoulder turn, he practiced it a while, and he became one of the best throwers in the league. Watch some of the best throwers - shortstops and second basemen, Rodgers, Newton. Those guys throw with velocity even when their hips are out of position to get good hip rotation. They do it with a quick should er turn, which you get from strength through you midsection. They have a powerful quick little upper body rotation and the ball zips out. For a very few athletes, it comes naturally. But for plenty of good athletes, it can be learned. Well, it's a little more than that, but yes.

Yeah, I can't argue with that. From the very little bit I've seen of Nate, I'd say he throws a ball much like Romo. And if that's true, that's good enough. It was a limitation for Romo, but not so limiting that he didn't succeed in the league. I'd take a young healthy Romo any day. We have to wait and see. Or I have to wait and see. Some people already have made up their minds.

I think Fitz and Peterman are similar in the arm strength category. Again, maybe Peterman will improve. But I think FItz's inaccuracy was a function of his arm strength in the same way I commented on the video of Peterman throwing to Benjamin. When you don't have the ability to flick the ball on a line with a quick arm motion, you have to drive with your legs and hip and shoulder turn. The bigger the motion, the more variables you have in the throw, and that's what impacts accuracy. Fitz had a good sense of how quickly he had to get the ball there on some of his throws, and he put his body into the throw. That's when he got inaccurate. People misunderstand me. I haven't seen enough of Peterman (none of us has) to know how well he delivers the ball in live NFL action. I just found some data that is consistent with the scouting reports and I thought it would be interesting to discuss. I was correct. I don't think anyone knows yet whether he has enough arm. And although everyone keeps saying there are great QBs without great arms, Montana is the only one anyone can name. Still, I agree completely with your main point, which is that arm strength is one of many attributes, and all things considered you'd rather have it than not.