Shaw66

I really think people need to look at what Beane and McD are doing. They unloaded some of the best talent, by far, on the team - Gilmore, Watkins, Darby, Dareus, Woods. They aren't afraid to let players walk. It seems clear that they are operating very much in the Belichick model - get a lot of low priced players and teach them. When they write a big check, it's for a Hogan or Gillislee, a check that isn't too hard to swallow if the guy doesn't work out. The only place where they spend consistently is on shut down corners. I have no illusions about Glenn being protected. McDermott will coach the players he has, and he's happy to do that.

We'll see, but I think this regime is very much in the Belichick model. I think their view is that four players for $4 million each are always better than one player for $12 million. I think if the Bills want Cousins and can save $10 million in cap space moving Glenn, it's happening.

Hi Thurm. Good to hear from you. First, I love Patsian and Packian. Great words!!! Second, you've gotten quite animated about Taylor, when he is at best remotely related to this thread. But since you're on the subject, I've gotta say that if your cap numbers are correct, and I have no reason to think they aren't, then I agree completely that they need to cut him. It seems completely clear that he isn't McDermott's guy for the future. If it' costs $18 million in cap space to keep him and $8 to cut him, cut him or trade him and use the cap room to acquire the QB you want long term, if there is one. But if all you're acquiring is a guy who's one or two year bridge, and if you have to pay that guy $10 million per, you haven't saved anything. Taylor can be your bridge at $10 million a year just as easily as some other guy. But as I said, that's beside the point. The Patsian/Packsian point is the point. Dollar cost is clearly a part of the decision tree, but I talked about it more in terms of whether he's worth it rather than the question of institutional stinginess. We haven't seen this new regime to know whether they'd be willing to open their wallets for a big-time contract, so we don't know. However, the Patsian/Packian reference doesn't establish anything. The Packers did write a big check to keep Rodgers - he has the fifth highest average salary among QBs. Brady is lower, but even he is at $20 million. We don't know how much the Pats would have paid Brady if he'd insisted on what he's worth. He willingly gave up dollars to help the Pats acquire other talent. Not saying the Bills would break the bank for anyone. Just saying I don't think we know what their attitude is about such things.

I wrote about this in another thread. I think Wood retiring increases the likelihood that the Bills sign a free agent QB. The retirement creates one more hole to fill. The cheapest talent is in the draft and undrafted free agents, and when you need a lot of talent, you look for cheap talent. If you mean does it affect what Cousins is thinking, I think it does but not enough to change his mind. Cousins is looking for the right situation long-term, not immediately. He won't want to change teams again. So it's much more important to him to land with the right coach and GM; if they're right, personnel issues will be dealt with soon enough.

I don't think you get who Cousins is. He will go to the place he thinks is the best fit for him. Money won't be the deciding factor, as long as it's enough money to satisfy him. He will think about this like Brady does. He wants to win, and that trumps the money.

Yours is a point of view, but I don't think it's Beane's point of view. I think he's all about rookies and low-priced free agents. So I don't think he thinks that paying the premium for Cousins is "too much." Of course, I don't know, but that's what I think is going on. Plus, if they think he's the guy, he's the guy for the next 6-8 years, and the cap hell that might result from signing him lasts only one year. My understanding is that in 2019 there's plenty of cap room. I don't think Beane will be afraid of the price tag. I think the whole question is whether the Bills think he's the guy.

Absolutely. My point is that people who think that the Bills can't compete for him are incorrect. He may go to any of several teams for any of several reasons, but the Bills have as good a shot as any.

Of course, no one knows for sure, but I think this is correct.

Thanks. I hadn't seen that. I read a different, longer article about him that convinced me of the same things. People really should read this article, or find other like it, and you'll see what we're talking about. This guy's view about the game is EXACTLY like McD's. The guy has an office, a little cubby hole, at the Redskins training facility where he can keep his notebooks and computer and study during his free time.

Someone here a few days ago said he went to some website where you can do your own modeling, using all the actual contract data and showed there's room to do it. I really don't think money would keep the deal from getting done. The Bills can find the way to pay what it takes to get him if they want him.

The difference between Kirk Cousins and Mario Williams is night and day. Williiams was all about the money. Cousins is all about the process, winning and being the best he can be. I really think Cousins may prefer Buffalo to EVERY other team because McDermott is his football soulmate. It's all about process, study, improvement. Heard that before? In his mind, the only better place than Buffalo would be playing for Belichick. Cousins was born and raised and went to college in the midwest. Buffalo would be like coming home, not going to Siberia. Cousins is going to go to the place that feels right to him, so long as the money is in the ball park. Buffalo can compete under those rules.

I'm on board. I think many people are missing what a good fit Cousins is for McDermott's philosophy. I think the OP hits the nail on the head - if the Bills are drafting a QB, they're looking for a guy like Cousins. Why would Cousins sign with Buffalo? Because HE sees what a good fit he is for the McD's philosophy. They mesh perfectly. You don't think the Bills would spend the money? Why not? Because they haven't in the past? Well, too things about that: 1. By the past, you mean under Mr. Wilson. The Pegulas have had NO PROBLEM spending money, on the stadium, on head coaches, on whatever they think is necessary. And 2. they spent the money to get Mario Williams. Didn't work out so well, but the organization, under Mr. Wilson spent the money when they thought it was the right thing to do. If McDermott is sold on the guy, money is not going to be a problem.

Must be a guy McD had his eye on but couldn't get last season. Has to be an upgrade in McD's mind.

I just got done watching this video and reading the article, and then I saw your post. http://winning.jwmi.com/bill-belichick-leadership-rules-football/ It's 15 or 20 minutes of Belichick being interviewed about coaching. It's fascinating. I'm totally on board with you. For the past year it's become clearer and clearer that it's about the coach much, much more than about the players. It's clear when you listen to Belichick. It's clear when you notice that, except for quarterbacks, the best players aren't winning more than the average players. I do think quarterback is different. Yes, he matters less than the coach, but he's the one player who really matters. I know, duh. But that's why I wrote what I did. I think there's a lot of work that goes into getting the right guy. If you find the guy who you think is the right guy, you pay whatever it takes to get him. Not true for any other position, but it's true at QB. If you think he's the guy, you pay him and don't worry about it. I think it's Cousins. And I think it's foolish to say he isn't worth what he will get. It isn't about Cousins alone. It's about whether he's the kind of QB that will succeed in a well-run football organization. I think that because I think Belichick is McDermott's role model, and one of the things Belichick says in the video is that the thing that he values most is dependability. He wants guys who are dependable, guys who come to work every day, study, work hard and then do what they've practiced. It's a very military approach. Belichick says his first season at the Patriots a first round pick showed up late for one of the first meetings, and Belichick was incredulous. He looked at the guy and asked "what are you doing?" What he meant was "we have jobs to do, every day, and you're not doing your job." Dependable. That's Cousins. Belichick says Brady isn't the most talented athlete to play QB, but he's smart, works really hard. He dependable. And he keeps improving. That's Cousins. Belichick talks about his players' personal lives, how important it is for them to know each other and care about each other. They have team nights out, trivia contests, all of that, because Belichick wants them to know each other, to know about their families. They don't have to like each other, but they have see each other as human beings. To Belichick, their personal lives are important. McDermott too. Cousins gets all of that and can be the leader of a team that has core values like that. This is a total guess, but I'd guess that McDermott thinks Cousins is exactly what McDermott wants, because for McDermott it's about working hard, learning and dependability. That's Cousins.

Sorry, it was 5 of 6 in the NFC.

Interesting. I hadn't thought about it, but I think you're right, that they won't give up picks. They have a system and a plan, and they have the discipline to stick to it. And I think they're confident the Pegulas will give them the time to do what they think is necessary. Having a winning season and making the playoffs secured that confidence. My sense of them, however, is that they would be willing to write a big check if there was a free agent QB they wanted. They'll be patient building at all the other positions, trusting their system. Can't be patient at QB, because the right QB, say a top 10 QB doesn't come along very often. So, yeah, we won't see any picks get traded to move up for any other position, and probably no big picks for a QB, either. That says to me they will be aggressive buyers in the free agent market. Just a guess.

Fair enough. It's what I was thinking about, and to clarify my thoughts I wrote. Once I wrote it, I figured I'd post. My guess was that most people would react like you, but it seems like some people liked it. I'm okay either way.

I've gotten to the point where I don't think this is a consideration. Five out of six AFC teams in the playoffs this season weren't in the playoffs last season. Teams turn over 25-35% of their rosters every year. The Rams went from nowhere to the playoffs in a year. Other than the Patriots, there are no dynasties. So if you're a QB under 30, you don't care all that much about how "close" the team is. I think the agents are telling them to look for a team with the right environment, the desire to improve, quality management, etc. And if you're a GM, you're expecting to be only a year away. (Unless you work for the Browns.)

"not a crazy buyer." In this realm, crazy is in the eye of the beholder. If they make a big free agent move, there definitely will be some folks complaining that they paid too much. Maybe me. If they trade up, there will be people complaining they gave up too much, or took the wrong guy. Hard to know what's crazy. If they trade two first round picks for Luck, crazy will be determined by how Luck plays over the next five years. Peyton's the only one.

Tolstoy, indeed! Gotta have some fun with this stuff. Interesting comments. I think you're right about the springtime. Just watching what Minnesota does will be fascinating. Once they act, the wheels will be turning in a dozen NFL team offices. And the draft seems to have several promising QB prospects, but a GM who bets the ranch on any one of them is also betting his job. Every one of the QBs in the draft could crash and burn. I don't agree that QBs will be looking long and hard at olines. I think the free agent QBs know the score: very few teams have good olines, and the quality of the line on most teams changes dramatically from year to year. Cousins will be looking for a six-year deal, and he'll be much more interesting in who the coach and GM is, because that's who's going to solve the oline problem, if there is one. Bradford and Bridgewater would be looking for big deals, too. Maybe even Keenum. Foles right now probably wishes he'd taken a one-year deal in Philadelphia. I really think the big question is what is happening to the league? I just wonder if a Peyton Manning makes his team a contender by his presence alone on a 2020 team like the real Peyton did in 2010. The game is changing, and as it changes, the difference in value between a Manning and a Matt Ryan may be shrinking. I think you're right. Not just scouting, but a commitment to actually taking one. Not every year, but no less than every three years. The Packers did it for years, the Pats have done it for over a decade. Take one, groom him, let him go or trade him. Just keep doing it. Heck, the Pats spent a pick on Brady when they had Bledsoe, who was going to play at a high level for five or seven more years.

I think I write this stuff just for your entertainment!

I liked it, but I wasn't sure what it meant. I think what he meant is that he couldn't see anything in what I wrote, like it was totally dark out there. I got confused, however, because solar eclipses ARE enlightening, because there isn't total darkness during a total eclipse. There's light, and in fact the light allows you to see things around you in ways that you don't see in normal sunlight. So if that's what he meant, I'm really flattered. I don't think that's what he meant. But I do admit, I liked it.

Right. It's hopelessly complicated to sort through the plans. They aren't even plans in a lot of cases. The possible scenarios are endless. Running the draft is a simple parallel example. You can make plans for what you're going to do at 21 or 22, or in the second round, but until you see the draft unfold, you don't really know what you'll be looking at. So I'd think they've talked about possibilities for weeks, and when the time comes, they look at where they are, they recall the various things they've talked about, and they make a decision. Huge decisions and so many uncertainties.

Always flattering to be compared to Tolstoy.

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 The GM’s QB Decision Tree The discussion began even before the final whistle blew in the Bills’ playoff loss to Jacksonville: Who should be the Bills’ QB for 2018 and beyond? It’s a question that’s easy to ask but difficult to answer correctly. When Brandon Beane, Sean McDermott and Brian Doball talk about it, what do they talk about? I don’t know; I’d love to be in that room, listening, but I’m not. So I began to wonder how to go about finding the QB a team wants. Here’s how I’d think about it: 1. WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FOR? Even the first step in the process isn’t easy. When will we stop looking for a QB because you have the guy you want? Are you looking for a guy who will finish his career in the Hall of Fame? That would be nice, certainly, but will you stop looking only when you have the HOF guy? Or are you looking for a franchise QB, a guy who you will be happy to have as our starter until the end of his career, even if he doesn’t make the Hall of Fame? Or are you looking for a guy who will be good enough for the next several years, who isn’t a true franchise guy and who you’ll be actively looking to replace? For me, I think of those categories like this: A Hall of Fame guy is someone I expect to be among the top five QBs in the league, year after year. The franchise guy is someone I expect to be among the top 10 QBs, year after year. The good enough guy is someone I expect to be in the top 15 to 20 year after year. When you have a top 5 guy, every June your team is in the discussion about who’s winning the next Super Bowl. When you have a top 10 guy, your team is in the June Super Bowl discussion if it looks like your team has the other pieces in place. When you have a top 15 to 20 guy, your team is in the June Super Bowl discussion only if your team looks to have a top three defense. What you’re looking for depends in part on your vision for the team: what does the team look like that you’re trying to build? And that vision has to be informed by your view of where the NFL is heading. We’re witnessing the end, it seems, of the truly dominant Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Will more QBs emerge to dominate like Brady, Manning, Brees, Ben and Rodgers? Or will the future game be different? So that’s the first question. What are you looking for and how will you know you got him? 2. HOW LONG ARE YOU WILLING TO WAIT TO GET THE GUY YOU WANT? Obviously, you want him here as soon as possible. Realistically, however, the answer to the second question varies depending on your answer to the first question. If there are no top 5 QBs, or guys who are good bets to become top 5, available in free agency or the draft, you aren’t getting one this year. If you’re just going to draft the best QB you can every year until one of them turns out to be top 5, you have to be prepared to wait a while. If you’re looking for a top 10 guy, the chances you’ll find the guy this year in free agency or the draft go up some. Cousins, Keenum, Bridgewater, Bradford, maybe even Bortles could be available, and each of them conceivably could be your guy. The guy may be in the draft too, maybe even two of them. If you’re taking a free agent QB, you have a shot at having your guy playing at the level you want in 2018; if you draft him, he might do it from the first game, but it may take a year or two before he’s playing like a winner. 3. HOW MUCH ARE YOU WILLING TO PAY THE GUY? How long you’re willing to wait for your guy has some impact on how much you’re willing to spend, and vice versa. Everything has a price, so if you want a Hall of Fame QB right now, it’s only a question of how much the Packers want for Rodgers. How much you’re willing to pay isn’t as easy to figure out as you might think. In the case of a free agent QB, will you pay top dollar only if the guy is THE best QB in the league? Or will you pay top dollar if he’s a top 5 QB, even if he isn’t the best? I’m not sure there’s a right answer to the question, but my answer is that if I’m prepared to stop looking when I have a top 10 QB, and I’ll pay whatever the market demands to get him/keep him. That’s what the Raiders did with Carr and that’s what the Lions did with Stafford. In both cases, the team has the guy they think is good enough – if he comes top 5, great, but if he’s just the 8th best QB in the league, they aren’t having second thoughts about how much it cost. Teams only have second thoughts when they pay top dollar and the guy consistently falls out of the top 10. Like Flacco. If you’re drafting your QB of the future, what you’ll pay to get him is a different question. The players’ collective bargaining agreement fixes what the guy’s salary will be. The more important question is what you’re willing to pay to get into a position in the draft to have a good shot at getting the guy you want. Of course, that depends on where you already are in the draft and how far you have to move to get the guy. Will you trade this year’s first and second, this year’s first, second and next year’s first? Will you trade two firsts this year if, like the Bills, you have two firsts? What you’re willing to spend can’t be decided in a vacuum. The more you spend, in dollars or in draft capital, means you have that much less to spend on other players or another QB, if you happen to pick poorly this time around. 4. HOW DO YOU KNOW THE GUY YOU THINK YOU WANT IS ACTUALLY THE GUY? Of course, that’s the big question: How do you evaluate the guy before you pull the trigger? There’s lots of data, especially on free agents. But you know evaluating a guy is far more complicated than tracking completion percentage, touchdowns and yards per attempt. There’s semi-objective data gained through film study, like reading defenses pre- and post-snap, decision making, etc. There’s subjective data, like leadership skills, dedication, emotional stability for a stressful job. 5. WHAT’S YOUR CONTINGENCY PLAN? What are you going to do if, despite our collective brilliance in answering all the other questions, the guy you pick turns out not to be the guy you thought he was? Remarkably, the Redskins answered all the questions in one draft, with RG III and Cousins as the contingency plan. It looked like RG III was the answer, then he wasn’t, and there on the bench was the backup plan. Even so, the Redskins are looking like they’ll be trying to answer all these questions again in 2018. The Vikings miraculously stumbled into QBs, more by necessity than by planning. They had to pay for Bradford when Bridgewater went down, because their answer to the question when do you need him? was “RIGHT NOW!” Then they thought they had Bridgewater/Bradford to carry them in 2017 but brought in Keenum for insurance, because RIGHT NOW! still was the answer. That move alone should put someone in the running for GM of the Year. One fundamental part of the contingency plan is never to stop drafting QBs. Cassel, Hoyer, Mallett, Garropolo. What does all this mean for Beane, McDermott and Doball? Damned if I know. And it’s complicated by the presence of Taylor. The guy’s top 20, so if top 20 is all you want, the QB questions are answered. But if you want top 10, you have your work cut out for you. Still, is Taylor part of your contingency plan? Or is unloading Taylor part of the answer to how you’re going to find the money or picks to get the guy you really want? It will be an interesting Spring. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.