Shaw66

Not so clever if Mahomes is a franchise QB.

Cousins is unexciting, but I think he's the kind of guy that McDermott would like. He seems smart, coachable, good size. He'll make plays for you every game. On his best days, he doesn't look like Peyton or Brees at his best, but he doesn't have many truly bad days. He's reliable and probably good enough to win with. I'd bet that he reads the field and makes decisions in the passing game better than Taylor. He'll cost a lot, but I'd spend it.

I don't agree. When you don't have a QB, you have to be taking a shot at a new one every year. That's how we got stuck with Manuel - the Bills had no choice but to take the best QB available. During those two decades, if I have it right, the Bills drafted TWO QBs in the first round - Losman and Manuel. Think about that - they didn't have a QB and only twice in 20 years did they take one in the first round. In those two decades, in the second and third rounds they've taken one more - Trent Edwards in the third. So, at the most important position on the team, a position of immense need, in twenty years the Bills have drafted exactly three guys (other than hopeless longshots in the later rounds). They didn't go after any of the - admittedly few - free agents, like Brees. Beyond that, needing a QB, they've passed on Wilson, Prescott, Watson, Mahomes, Bridgewater, Tannehill (assuming they could have traded up two spots). There probably are a few I'm missing. Waiting and waiting for the right QB to come along is NOT the answer. When it's your turn to pick, find a guy who has whatever you think are the most important attributes - size, arm strength, brains, intangibles, whatever - and take him. If he busts, take another one next year. You're never going to have a QB if you don't draft one.

Most reasonable people agree that it would be nice to stay with Taylor until a better option appears, and that's what people are generally saying. There are a few who say get rid of Taylor so he isn't occupying space; the longer you keep him, the longer you're delaying getting the right guy. I don't agree with that philosophy, but I understand it. The real question is how aggressive should they be going after the next guy? Peterman is a possibility, but they need another, and probably a better, option. Meanie and I agree there. I don't see the college QB who looks like he's worth trading up for, but I don't know the talent or, really, what to look for. I think they should take the first QB they see who appears to offer value at the place where the Bills are picking, and in fact be aggressive about it. That is, if you see a guy like Garoppolo, a second round pick with promise, you might go after him late in the first (if he measures up). The point is that they have to be committed enough to overdraft a guy. They can't afford to do what they did last season - wait and wait and then because he looks like a bargain, take Peterman. In other words, and I know people will gag on this, they have to be willing to do what Donahoe did - reach for Losman. Now, Donahoe's problem was that he traded up and reached, which I think is a mistake. If you're going to reach, which means you're going to take a gamble, you don't put extra chips on the table. You simply reach at the place where you're picking. They have five picks in the first three rounds. I think they should draft five guys, and one of those should be a QB.

Those numbers are indicative of the impact of coaching and philosophy, not QB play.

My recollection of a post here earlier in the year was that the Bills ran more outside zone in 2016, Inside,noutside,nis there any doubt that Lynn was a more creative OC than Dennison?

I think it's quite simple. The Bills offense isn't very good for a lot of reasons. It could be made better with a variety of changes that include aspects of coaching and personnel. However, if you're going to change one thing to get the biggest impact, it would be changing the QB. A better QB would make the offense a lot better. A worse QB would make it a lot worse.

Thanks but you'd be disappointed.

I always think we get in trouble looking at data like this. If third down conversions were the best indicator of qb performance it would be used instead of the passer rating or the qbr. Then when you slice it more and start talking about passing with a lead or while trailing, you get into hot water. If Taylor didn't pass much with a lead it meant he was passing when he was trailing. Since he didn't pass much at all and since he didn't pass with a lead, it means a lot of his passes were trailing in the 4th quarter. (Bills usually passed only when they needed to.) In the 4th quarter he saw prevent defense, which is a defense that gives up first downs in exchange for running the clock. So it makes sense that a qb whose passes come disproportionately late in games he's losing is going to convert third downs. Two years ago, people complained that despite a great rating, Tyrod was bad because he didn't throw over the middle. It was statistical cherry picking. Since 2015 he's been much better throwing over the middle but his numbers are down. Passer rating is the best measure. The best qbs are in the top 10 in passer rating. Taylor was there in 2015, but he's been mired close to 20th since then. Look at 3rd down all you want. Taylor hasn't been good enough.

Nicely done. It's true. I'm in.

You can talk about luck, and the Bills certainly had some this year. But in other years people talked about the Bills were bad because they didn't know how to finish games. Well, they finished them this season. It wasn't always pretty, but they got the job done. I don't think that happened by accident. I think this team has better intangibles than many of the teams in the past, and you have to credit McD for that.

Yup. Didn't know he is a Bills fan.

Playifds, Bengals. Dalton. Tune in of you want to see it

It's fun to have really big games, week after week. How great would it be to win another? Playoffs in Foxboro! And I agree about getting the players to believe. McD told them to keep going, to work on what they're given, prepare, then play their hearts out, and they got rewarded.

I don't disagree that the Bills might miss the playoffs next year. This team isn't, in my opinion, very good. But I've become a big believer in McDermott. I've said it several times - I think he's like Belichick. He has a standard defense that he plays, and plays and plays, and he teaches his players to play it. The defense adjusts and gets more nuanced as the season goes by (just like Belichick's defense). He always has another player ready to step in, a player who knows his role, plays within himself, and isn't a liability (Milano, for example). Belichick's teams are like this. His mesage is about continuously improving. When this post season ends for him, he will be at work the next morning, reviewing the season, learning what he did wrong and what he could do better, and getting his coaches to do the same. So, for example, if the Bills draft four position players (other than QB) in the first two rounds, I expect they ALL will be playing significant minutes by the end of their rookie seasons, because McDermott teaches his guys what they need to know to play effectively. So I expect that four holes get filled in the first two rounds, and two or three more get filled in the later rounds. Add a free agent or two, and I expect this team will be a LOT more solid across the lineup. I'm pretty excited about the prospect for the future. McDermott isn't going to do the same things next season that he did this season. He'll change, his coaches will change, and his team will be even better fundamentally.

I think they're definitely in the market for a QB. I just don't think they should go to extraordinary measures to take one in this draft. That is I'm not trading up.

As I said, I think this is a misread of McDermott. He believes he, his coaches and his players all will improve next season. He will study the offense, work with Dennison to change things he didn't like, and work with Taylor unless Taylor's replacement comes along.

I really think people have to tune in to the McDermott way. He might replace Dennison, but I seriously doubt. He wanted Dennison, he brought him to Buffalo, and McDermott isn't going to be disloyal to him by cutting loose after a year. Loyalty is part of the McDermott way. But McDermott isn't going to accept less than excellence. He will spend a lot of time in the off-season, working with Dennison to improve the offense. That work will start right away if they think Taylor is the QB; it'll be delayed a bit if they think they're making a QB change. But whenever and however they do it, we're going to see a revised offense next season. The principles won't change, but the run-pass mix almost certainly will change. They'll be scheming for Benjamin, scheming for Thompson. It'll still be conservative, because McDermott has shown us that's who he is. It's foolish to think that what we saw this season is what we'll see next season. McDermott is about improvement, not status quo.

He wasn't questioning why Gase did it. The point is the Bills benefited from that playcalling. The game could have been closer.

To you and Badlands - I agree you have to take a QB. I think they should take a QB; I don't think they should trade picks to more up high into the first round. I've become a McDermott believer. I think he's like Belichick - not necessarily as good, but like him in that he installs solid offense and defense and teaches players to play it. We saw the result - a lot of solid execution on offense and defense. The draft is an opportunity to add a lot of talent to that system, to build on it. He's the kind of teacher who's going to work rookies into the lineup and get them to perform. Five picks in the first three rounds is a great opportunity. So I don't think the Bills should trade up. Now, I suppose if Beane is really sold on some guy and can make a deal, he should do it. But you've got to be really sold, because the Bills can be really good next season with upgrades at 4 or 5 positions (probably a free agent or two) and solid qb play from Taylor (or maybe Peterman). So I take a QB, but I take one who's available when I'm picking and looks like a good pick. That is, I'll use one of my top 4 or 5 picks on a QB. I should be able to get a better prospect than Peterman, by a good measure, and if that guy can take Taylor's job next year, fine. If he can't, he's my starter in 2019, or if Taylor takes a step up, I re-sign Taylor.

I say it all the time: take the points the game gives you. Points add up to points; taking chances often adds up to zilch.

Can we pin this so fans coming here today can see it?

Well, isn't that nice? Now let's beat them.

And you make your own luck. Generally, over a 16-game season, the breaks even out. So it's unlikely that the Bills got here by luck. The fact is that the Bills overcame a lot of adversity this season to put themselves in the positions to have the "luck" (as the OP calls it) to win. The Bills had one of the worst three-game stretches you'll ever see in the NFL and followed that winning four must-win games, losing only to the Pats twice in that stretch. Plenty of teams would have quit some place along the way. Not these Bills.

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 All So Improbable “Can a man change the stars?" "Yes William. If he believes enough, a man can do anything!” The Buffalo Bills just ended one of the most improbable years in the history of the franchise. One year ago, the Bills had benched Tyrod Taylor to preserve their ability to cut him. They had fired Rex Ryan, adding momentum to the head coach carousel at One Bills Drive. The press declared the Bills a “dumpster fire” and decried the Pegulas’ failed management of the team. Now the Bills are in the NFL playoffs for the first time in 18 years. Improbable. The Bills limped past the Miami Dolphins Sunday, 22-16, in a characteristic win for them: Not enough offense to take control of the game, an opportunistic defense that seems to be hanging on for dear life but often gets the job done, some good breaks (refs were throwing flags against the Dolphins like New Year’s confetti), and more nail biting down the stretch than good teams should endure. And then the team and Bills fans everywhere watched the closing minutes of the Bengals at the Ravens. The Ravens had taken control of the game in the second half, outscoring the Bengals 17-7. As the Bengals began their last possession, it seemed the Ravens were on their way to the win that would clinch the last wildcard spot. The Bengals began slowly, almost stumbling their way to a few first downs but showing no signs of having the fire power necessary to get in field goal range to force overtime, let alone score a touchdown to win. The Ravens did their part with some timely penalties, including a defensive holding call that negated an interception what would have ended the game. Then, on 4th and 12 – desperation time, Andy Dalton completed a pass to Tyler Boyd for the first down, no, wait, a touchdown! The Bengals go home with a meaningless but typical AFC North win, and the Bills go to the playoffs. Improbable. Random thoughts: 1. How cool was it that Kyle Williams got his first NFL touchdown and his first ride to the playoffs in what may be his last regular season game? So many interesting things about that: First, what Bills player in recent memory deserved a special moment like that more than Kyle? (Maybe one; more about that later.) Here’s a guy who looked like he should have been a leader on the team five years ago, but he never seemed comfortable in the role. He deferred to others, even to notable non-leaders like Mario Williams, because, I guess, it didn’t feel right to him. Then this season, prodded no doubt by Sean McDermott and because now, finally, it did feel right to him, Kyle has stood before the team time and again, the acknowledged leader of the Buffalo Bills. Second, of all the things that Sean McDermott seems to be doing right as a head coach, isn’t it nice that one of those things is to be comfortable enough in the job to recognize the potential for a special moment and make it happen? He wanted the moment for Kyle and for his team, so he installed the play. Then, in the biggest game of his head coaching career, he called it. McDermott already had an oversized running back on his team who was perfectly capably of taking the one-yard plunge for what turned out to be the game-winning score, but for McDermott it’s about more than the wins. Third, with Kyle in the game and the play called, the offensive knew they had to perform. This was for the score, sure, but it was more. It was for their leader, the guy who repeatedly had told them how much this all meant to him. They weren’t going to let him down. Would they have blocked the play so perfectly for Tolbert? Maybe, but for Kyle they had an extra incentive. McDermott’s willingness to go for the special moment helped raise the level of his team’s play and get the score. 2. Who knew that Richie Incognito hadn’t been to the playoffs in ten seasons in the league? It’s a nice moment for him, a guy who’s been through a lot and worked to change his life. 3. Such an unhappy moment for LeSean McCoy, who as much as anyone is responsible for the Bills being where they are today. The guy is a great competitor, and he wanted this win badly. He didn’t have his best game, mostly because tacklers were all over him, but Shady’s presence on the field is enough to make the game easier for the rest of the offense. No better way to honor a fallen teammate than for the offensive line, Tolbert and Murphy to get the job done. McDermott’s players seem truly to believe the next-man-up philosophy. 4. Now the Bills need to find another running back as they return to the playoffs. It won’t happen, of course, but the sentimental choice is Fred Jackson. He’s only been out of the league two seasons, so knowing Freddie, he’s probably still in shape. He went to the playoffs with Seattle, but the man deserves a post-season game in a Bills uniform. Kyle is getting his moment, and it sure would be nice if Jackson got his. 5. Tyrod Taylor, the guy who very well could have been released by the Bills nine months ago, had another Tyrod Taylor day – nice production, no turnovers but still somehow not quite enough. An overthrow of O’Leary in the endzone (Taylor had pressure in his face). Saved by a penalty after a disastrous fumble at the end of a nice run. Two underthrows to Thompson that looked worse than they were: no QB puts those throws in exactly the right place every time, and both throws allowed Thompson to make a play (the only bad throw on those plays is an overthrow). The first time Thompson didn’t make the play, but the second time he forced the interference call to set up the last touchdown. Thompson’s been a great find. Where am I on Taylor? I think Taylor will ask for a trade, and maybe the Bills are done with him. It does seem strange, however, to cut loose the QB who took you to the playoffs. If I’m the Bills, I don’t do anything extraordinary in the draft – I take a first-round QB if one falls to me, but I don’t burn picks to move up (except I like the kid at Oklahoma – he has Kelly-like grit). I’m content to ride Taylor for another season and use my picks to build the rest of the roster. Why? Because I think that with a stronger roster, a healthy Benjamin, an improving Zay Jones and Thompson, Dennison (yes, I’m guessing he’ll be back) can build a better offense around Taylor. 6. I’ve been down on Preston Brown all season, but the man seemed to be all over the field against the Dolphins. Maybe he CAN be the guy, especially if he gets some help on the front four. I think he and Milano are examples of one of McDermott’s best (and Belichick-like) traits. They guys seem to have benefitted from McDermott’s patience with them, and with his teaching. McDermott has let them learn and grow into their roles, and we see it in their play. (It’s McDermott’s patience that makes me think Dennison will be back. McDermott will want to work with Dennison to make the offense better.) 7. Jerry Hughes didn’t make big plays, but he was active and a problem for the Dolphins. 8. Landry has given Bills fans plenty of reason to dislike him over the years, but, man, I’d like to see him in a Bills uniform next season. That guy can play. It sure didn’t hurt to have him, and Drake, off the field for the end of the game. Give the Bills credit for staying composed through that melee, earning them the ejections and some penalty field position. That ref has to stop smiling; he looks like he isn’t taking the game seriously. He finally did get the calls on Landry and Drake correct. I suppose the overturn on Brown’s touchdown was correct. The PI on Thompson was the kind of call that good teams get, and deserve. Thompson and Taylor’s throw put the defender in position to interfere. The Bills got one incredibly generous spot for a first down. 9. Lots of empty seats in Miami. We’ve come to expect that, especially in a meaningless game for the Dolphins. Reverse the roles and put that game in Buffalo, and Bills fans would be out in force. I mean, who wouldn’t want to beat the Dolphins and keep them out of the playoffs? I wasn’t surprised to see the Miami fans’ lack of interest, but how about all the empty seats in Baltimore? Come on! Their team is playing a division rival and playing for a wildcard bid, and the fans can’t show up for the game? Or worse, they came and then left before the end? 10. And speaking of the fans, kudos to all of the Bills making noise at Hard Rock. Nothing better than taking over that place. And the same for all the fans who showed up the airport to greet the Bills when they came home. The videos of that give me chills and tears. And now, improbably, we can say it: ON TO THE PLAYOFFS!!! GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.