Shaw66

I am, reluctantly, in the same place.

Some decisions are bigger than other decisions, and some have more far reaching consequences than others. I think starting Peterman had significant long-term consequences. It was more than let's play the guy for a game and see what happens. It was more because it's the most important position. It sent a message to Taylor. It sent messages to all the other guys on the team. What does he do now? Stand in front of the team and say "I made a bad decision. It's clear now, and should have been clear then, that Peterman isn't ready"? Can't really say that without dissing Peterman in front of the team, which is a coaching no-no. "I made a mistake, and I'm telling you now Tyrod is my guy"? Can't say that because you've said it before, and you obviously didn't mean it before. Start the wrong guy at safety, fine, you just move on. Start the wrong guy at QB, it has consequences.

I'm often wrong, so this won't be the first time. And frankly, I've been thinking as I write that I maybe making too big a deal about it. But I don't think so. Two things I could be wrong about. One is that maybe he hasn't burned the bridge to Tyrod staying in Buffalo beyond his contract. Maybe Tyrod will be a really big man and say it's okay, let's see how it goes. I doubt it. He's been dumped on repeatedly since McDermott took over, and he doesn't have much reason to believe it will change. The other is that maybe McDermott and Beane have decided to move on from Tyrod, they knew that benching him would mark the beginning of the end of Tyrod in Buffalo, and they're okay with that. If they thought that, then I disagree with the decision but at least they understood the consequences. I disagree because I think you don't get rid of your best quarterback until you have a better one on board, and the Bills are very far from having a better QB on board. Tyrod is the best QB the Bills have had since Bledsoe, maybe since Kelly. I think this decision forces the Bills to bet the ranch on a franchise QB rookie in the upcoming draft. Last time the Bills were forced to take a QB because they had no one they got Manuel. It's much better to be shopping for something when you don't absolutely need the thing.

Yeah that's a fair characterization of what I do, except when I disagree with my client I say so. What you say about Peterman is a fair plan not in consistent with what I said. Go with Taylor and look for your replacement. I thought they were riding in a motor boat looking for a speed boat. Peterman might have been the speed boat or some player to be named later. What McDermot just did is Jump Out of the motor boat with no other boat in sight. I can't defend that.

You're right. And I've been waiting for someone to say this for the past several weeks: Anyone know who's leading the league in tackles? Right. Zach Brown. Brown. Dareus. Darby. Gilmore. No one shoukdntell usnthat it isn't McD's fault he has no talent. I'm agreeing with you. It's brutal to look at those numbers. Its what made me post that the Bills could be the worst tsam in the league.

God, that's a brutal recitation. The Bills may be the worst team in the league, and may not even be close.

I don't see.that there's much different between that and what he's said. He's said "that's not the way we want to play." You said "We played bad." What's the diff? He hasn't pretended everything is okay. He's said they have a lot to fix.

I think you and others misunderstand me. Yes, it's true I tend to put a lot of confidence in coaching and management, because I've learned over the years that people with experience generally are better in their field than people without experience. Like Clinton, Obama and Trump, all amateurs who stumbled along in the White House, trying to figure it out. So what I generally try to do is try to figure out why a rational person with a lot of experience as a head football coach would decide to do what he did. In most cases I come up with a theory that I'm comfortable explains why he did it. That doesn't mean what the coach did was right; it just means I have some insight into why he did it. As we've talked about the Peterman start, the awful three-game performance and the Dareus and Benjamin trades, I've concluded there simply isn't a rational explanation for all of that other than horribly bad judgment. I'll repeat what I've been saying: It looked to me that what Beane and McDermott were doing was following a plan that went like this: Teach guys the system this year, while they're weeding out some guys who don't fit. In the process of weeding, pick up some draft picks. Next May, use the picks to fill several holes. Along the way, pick up a QB prospect, but plan to play Taylor in 2018 and, if all goes well, in 2019 and 2020. When they conclude Taylor has hit his ceiling, decide whether to move on or not. Their hope and expectation was to build from 7-9 or so into a playoff team. If they got there this year, great, but if it took another year, that's fine. I know there are plenty of people who didn't like that plan, because they want Taylor gone. But that was the only rational plan I could see short of blowing things up, and it seemed to be McD and Bean were on that path. What they've done, I think, is burn the live-with-Tyrod bridge, which means they need a QB now, which means they don't get to fill the holes because they have to seriously consider moving up in the draft next May. If they do that, they don't have the capital to fill the holes. That seems to me to be a much worse plan. In short, until they benched Tyrod, they had left themselves the option of moving forward with Taylor. It's always better to have options.

I think the Bills are hopeless, but think about it for a minute. He's a coach. He's supposed to be leading 53 men and getting them to perform their best. He MUST tell his team they're in the hunt. He can't stand in front of them and say "We suck. We're just trying to figure out how not to embarrass ourselves again." Can't say that. So if he can't say it to his team, he can't say it in public. Until they're mathematically eliminated, he has to say this stuff. I'm really scared. There's a good chance that KC will roll over the Bills on Sunday. They're home, they're desperate, they have better talent and they're better coached. It's a real good bet that the Pats will roll over the Bills, too. It's quite possible that the Bills put together the ugliest five-game stretch in the history of the league. It's possible they'll give up 200 points in five games. Let's see what McDermott has to say when THAT happens.

Wouldn't you prefer if the Bills were 7-3 and we all were happy? Next week I drive 6 and half hours to see the Patriots. What a joy.

I like it! We can start it right here. From now it's the Pit of Misery for me!

Look at the post I was responding to. His post was about next year's draft.

They need 3/4 of a defensive line, three linebackers and three or four offensive linemen. Plus a quarterback. There aren't enough draft picks to fill all those holes. And I don't what free agents will be interested in a team that collapsed under its rookie head coach. I think the future for the next couple of years is bleak. Happy to be convinced otherwise, but the only convincing I'm buying is on the field. First test is whether McDermott can turn this season around. KC is reeling, and they'll probably beat the Bills. How early inthe first half do you think the Pats game will be over? Is there any question that it's over by halftime?

My thinking was similar, except that the scenario a few weeks ago left room for the continuing improvement of Taylor, so that there'd be a QB controversy in 2019 or 2020 - Taylor or the new guy (like Alex Smith and Mahomes). That's a much better place to be than betting the ranch on the new guy. Plus, now they have to go up to get a new guy who looks like a starter now, instead of taking a guy later in the first or second and developing him.

You may be right, but I don't think he's coaching for his job. I wrote this somewhere: I think the Pegulas knew when they hired a young coach and Gm that there were going to be mistakes and they'd have to be patient. All head coaches say they learned a lot in their first season. I think you have to give these guys three years, minimum, unless the Bills defense is getting blown off the field most every game between now and midseason 2018.

I agree. I didn't go there because I'm shooting my mouth off too much any way, and there's a contrary argument that Matthews and Benjamin might be better for Taylor, given that they're two really good receivers to throw to when they're covered. Still, I agree with you. Remember, McCoy called Watkins the "Ferrari" for a reason, and every time the Ferrari was on the field, Taylor showed he knew what to do with him. It'll take a miracle for Taylor to stay. Now, some people will say "fine, he should have been gone by now anyway and Prescott or Watson should have been the starter." I get that. But given where the Bills were two weeks ago, the best future for the Bills over the next three years was to build a team around Taylor. That option is now gone.

I agree with this. He must have looked good in practice, because otherwise the decision makes absolutely no sense at all. I think he looked good in practice and then he did some good things against the Saints. But an NFL head coach is supposed to know the difference between taking reps in practice and playing under live fire when the game is on the line during the regular season. All kinds of guys look good in practice. I've always said I give McDermott credit for having no fear. However, he should have been able to see that his entire team had played poorly for two games, the entire team, and he should have been able to see at a minimum that whatever it was that Peterman was doing in practice wasn't so outstanding as to be likely to make a difference against the Chargers. And as I've thought about it talked about it with others, I think having made the decision he made, he now has closed the door on Taylor being his quarterback beyond 2018. Closing the door on any starter is a bad thing, and closing it on your quarterback when you have no one waiting in the wings is really bad. Maybe Peterman has a future, but we've seen Dak as a rookie step in for a starter and we've seen Watson as a rookie step in for a starter and we've seen Wentz as a rookie step in for a starter, and Peterman didn't look anything like those guys.

Makes sense. I sat behind the Bills bench for the Jets game, and I don't recall any animated discussions. McDermott and Frazier had a long talk, and it looked like McDermott did most of the talking, but it didn't look anything like a chewing out. They could have talking retirement planning. Most of the coach/player discussions, so far as I recall, seemed very much to be governed by the "process" - it looked like quiet, rational talk about nuances of the game. Like, "when the blocker knocks you down and steps on your chest as he's running downfield, get up run down the field after him so that you'll be ready to huddle up for the next play."

Well I'm desperate for a silver lining right about now, and I think you're right. However, the cloud's a whole lot darker than that, my friend.

One more thing about Taylor. Look at Carolina. Two years ago they lost in the Super Bowl. Last season, the coaches told Cam that they didn't want him running, they wanted him throwing from the pocket, etc. Their season went in the shitter, for a variety of reasons. In the off-season Cam told the coaches "you have let me play my game." They agreed. He's leading all QBs in rushing by a lot. And they're 7-3. Now, Taylor is third in the league among Qbs, which isn't shabby, with two fewer carries per game than Newton. What do you think would happen if Taylor went to his coaches and said "you have to let me play my game"? And, by the way, look at the list of QBs who have rushed for the most yards: Newton, Wilson, Taylor, Watson, Prescott, Wentz are the first six. Notice anything? They are among the most successful young QBs in the league. They are part of the new wave of mobile QBs. And, by the way, Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers regularly appeared near the top of the list in prior seasons. Now, maybe McDermott is going to look at the season Cam is having and open his eyes. Maybe he's going to fire Dennison and get some offensive genius out of some college to be the OC . Then maybe he's going to go to Taylor and say "I'm sorry. I've seen the light. We're opening it up and turning you loose. Please, please play 2018 with an open mind, and if you like what you see, tell me you'll be willing to stick around." If I'm Taylor, I say, "sure, I'll play with an open mind." In my head I'm thinking "the only way I'm staying past 2018 is if they write me a really big check, and they haven't been willing to do that yet." And if I'm Taylor I'm looking very carefully at the Bills' 2018 draft. They burn a high pick on a QB instead of an offensive tackle, I don't care what McDermott says, I'm moving on.

I know he's under contract. I said he's leaving as soon as he becomes a free agent. Since that is, I think, obvious, the Bills will start looking for his replacement in the upcoming draft, and drafting his replacement will seal the deal - Tyrod will leave after next season. And I think he'll ask for a trade or a release from his contract in the off-season. If he's going to be a free agent, he'd rather play next season where a team wants him and will build around him. Nineteen QBs have higher average salaries than Taylor, which means 12 starting QBs are making less than Taylor, a lot less. Some of the guys on that list, like Bradford and Glennon, are probably about to make a lot less money. Some of them, like Roethlisberger and Palmer and Manning, will retire soon. Plenty of teams will be looking for starting QBs, and they aren't all going to find them in the draft - there are probably 10 teams looking for a started and there may 2 or 3 starters in the draft. The Pats will be looking for Brady's replacement. Someone will sign Taylor. He's better off taking $10 million for 2018 someplace where he has a future than taking $15 in Buffalo where there's no future, and he probably can get better than $10 million. I'm not sure how you can tell on film the difference between a team quitting and team just not being good enough. Whether you've quit or aren't good enough, you're getting blocked just the same. The way you can tell is to compare some of the early wins to the last three games. My guess is that the Bills played over their heads early in the season, in part because their schemes were unknown to the opponents until they five or six weeks of film to look at and in part because McDermott had built the right attitude in their heads. However, it's hard to maintain that gung-ho attitude when you stop getting the outcomes you want, and I think that's what's happened. They've come back to earth, the good opposing coaches are outscheming them, and the Bills haven't been able to respond with schemes or talent.

Yes, but I think Marrone, Rex and McDermott make a good case study. I didn't like Marrone, but if he hadn't quit I would have said the Bills have to stick with him, because he seemed to be some things right. Rex was a seasoned head coach. Two years was more than enough to decide that he just didn't have it. These guys are young. They are relatively inexperienced, and experience is the best teacher. When the Pegulas signed him they were making a decision that they were willing to pay the price that goes along with giving them experiences, and that price is some mistakes. In Rex's case, mistakes are an indication that they made the wrong choice, because he had the experience and he was still making big mistakes. But in the case of McDermott, mistakes aren't necessarily evidence that he won't succeed, because the Pegulas knew, or should have known, that some mistakes were coming. If the Pegulas are going to make a coaching or GM change because these guys have made some mistakes in their first year on the job, then the problem with the Bills is the same place it's always been - with the ownership.

Completely different situation. He knew his coach was on the way out, and he might have guessed that his GM was on the way out, too. And he was benched not because of his play but because the Bills couldn't afford to have him get injured. Now he has a coach who's actively working to replace him. His new coach presumably led the effort to shorten his long-term deal, and his new coach benched him because he didn't like the results he was getting with Tyrod at QB. I've said for along time, and people didn't believe me, that Tyrod agreed to renegotiate his contract not because he was afraid he'd get cut but because he wanted to be a free agent again soon. Today he's glad he did. They can embrace him all they want, but it's too late. You only put up with your girlfriend sleeping with other guys before you go looking for someone else. Unless the Bills go deep into the playoffs with Taylor next season, and I can't see how that can happen, Taylor's leaving. He'll have 3-4 good years left in his career, he'll have either a crappy offensive line or a brand new offensive line, or both, he'll have a coach who wants him to run an offense that isn't suited to him, and he'll have a four-year history with the Bills of the coaches and front office first telling him we love you, then we hate, then we sort of love you, then we hate you, "no wait, we really love you and we mean it this time." Why would he sign up for more of that.

I haven't been saying for it years, but you're absolutely right about this group. The Pegulas did their homework and bet on two young guys. Tthey had to know (I hope someone told them) that if they were going to bet on two young guys, they would have to ride with that bet for several years, because some of the ride in the early years was going to be bumpy. Well, it's gotten bumpy, but you can't get off the bus right now. You bought these guys for their potential, and you have to have the patience to see how they develop. To change the metaphor, you can't plant seeds and then plow up the field because the first thing that came up was a weed.

Put yourself in Taylor's shoes and think about it. You're at your best in the passing offense when you're scrambling and when you're encouraged to run the ball when the opportunity arises. You have a head coach who encourages you to play that way. You played so well your first season that the Bills gave you a long-term contract. After your second season, with a new head coach, the Bills say they're not so sure and renegotiate so they can get out of the long-term deal. Then the new guy and his offensive coordinator tell you they want you to stay in the pocket, not to run. Then your head coach benches you because he believes the guy behind you gives the team a better chance to win when you and all your teammates are thinking "uh, NO!" You're under contract for one more season. You're doing your best to play from the pocket, even though (1) your best offensive lineman can't stay on the field, (2) your second best offensive lineman is likely to retire or move on soon, (3) your third best offensive lineman is just okay and (4) your other two offensive linemen wouldn't be starting on most NFL teams., maybe wouldn't even be on the roster. So your coach doesn't like how you play and won't play to your strengths, the entire offensive line has to be rebuilt in the next two seasons, and you're going to be 30 when you become a free agent. Under those circumstances, what could your head coach possibly do or say to convince you that you want to be in a Bills uniform in 2019? Tyrod is counting the days until he get out of town. His agent probably already has asked the Bills to trade or release him after this season ends.