Shaw66

Was that the maximum speed that he was capable of or was that the speed at which he throws 20 yard passes? If that's his maximum speed, then I'll agree that arm speed isn't a problem for Peterman. But I'd guess that Brees dials himself back on 20 yard passes, so he isn't using his full motion. Peterman has to use his full motion to get to 52. Who knows? All we can do is watch the guy play and see how he does. He's not going to fail because of arm strength. But he may be limited by it.

I agree. I'll take Pennington any day, at least until a Hall of Fame guy comes along. In this new era, short passing, pick plays, all that, Pennington would be a star. He was a Brady. It is interesting, isn't it, how guys who show all the little skills the NFL craves, the thinking skills, get overlooked because of physical stuff. In retrospect, Russell Wilson never should have fallen.

As someone suggested several posts ago, Peterman was probably in the back of Beane's mind when he made the Benjamin deal. Benjamin and Matthews are great receivers for a guy with Peterman's skill set. Zero velocity. I like it!

Exactly. There aren't many pro football players I feel sorry, but he was one. He was amazing. What was really amazing was once defenses tightened up because he wasn't a threat to go deep, he STILL completed a ton of passes, because he read defenses so well and he was so accurate. As you say, all this before his shoulder. After his shoulder, he still had all that amazing skill, but then he was really limited.

I think the only way to talk about it is all the other variables are equal. Two quarterbacks with different arm speeds throwing to the same guys in the same cleats on the same field against the same defensive alignment, the guy with the lower speed pass MUST decide earlier in order to begin his throw earlier in order to get the ball to the same place at the same time. Five to 10 percent faster.

This is very good. Exactly right. That's why a few posts ago I said that his arm may be a limiting factor. The fact that he doesn't have a strong arm doesn't mean that he can't play in the NFL, it just means that a weak arm may keep him from being a HoF player. Cutler's a great example. Amazing arm, horribly inconsistent decision maker. And let's be clear;. Peterman's arm isnt' going to keep him from being an effective starter. But it may keep him from being the kind of QB Bills fans want.

I don't know about late death, but I do notice that he has a pretty big motion throwing this ball. He wanted it there in a hurry, and he drives hard off his back foot and makes a good sized hip and shoulder turn. The guys with big arms tend to snap off a throw like that.

You may be right about short balls over the middle, but I don't think you're right about 10 yard out patterns. They throw those with as much velocity as possible. As for the arc of the ball, you're actually wrong about that. Wind resistance slows down all ball proportionately, so, the ball that is 10% faster coming out is slower, but still 10% faster than the ball that was slow coming out. In fact, it's worse that. The guy with the best velocity can throw with the lowest arc, so the ball is in the air for a shorter period of time, which means it's LESS affected by wind resistance than the ball that has a lot of arc.

You came up with the same numbers I did. Difference between 45 mph and 55 is about .17 seconds . Now recall that on average, QBs deliver the ball about 2.5 seconds after snap. So that means if you're at 55 and I'm at 45, you're deciding to throw the ball about 2.5 seconds after the snap, but for me to get the ball there at the same time I have to decide about 2.3 seconds after the snap. In other words, I have to decide nearly 10% faster than you did to get the ball to the same place at the same time. It's the exact same thing as bat speed in baseball. If my bat speed is 10% faster than yours, it means I can wait a little longer than you can before I decide to swing. That gives me a little more time to judge spin, speed and location. Again, I'm not saying Peterman is doomed because of his arm speed. I am saying it's likely to be a factor that limits his success, and it's something I'm sure he'll work on.

The test may be sloppy, but the concept isn't. We all understand it. The guy who can throw with great velocity has an advantage on many throws. The scouts said his arm is a concern. The combine tests seem to verify it, sloppy or not. Recall that all my OP said is that I think arm strength may be a problem with him. I think it's a fair comment, and I think the combine numbers, even if not perfect, suggest that he is coming into the league with less ability to deliver the ball with zip than most young QBs.

And the film is where the arm strength issue was identified. Here's what the NFL.com scouting report said. Notice that all of the negatives are about his ability to deliver the ball with pace. Notice also all the positives. I'm anxious to see him play: STRENGTHS Smooth, quick set-up in pocket. Grips the ball with big, 10-inch hands. Poised in pocket and takes the hit to deliver a completion. Will set-up, slide and then re-set before making his throw. Can cut it loose from off-balance angles from bootleg or play-action if he sees a winning option break open early. Full field reader. Works all the way through his progressions. Shoots glances at safeties to keep them in check. Strong natural accuracy. Able to throw receivers open and lead them away from danger. Can pinpoint passes to moving targets in his intermediate work. Has enough arm to work field side, intermediate throws. Great vision. Sees passing windows before they develop. Throws with outstanding timing and anticipation. Can put the ball on receivers' hands as soon as they come out of a break if coverage dictates it. Utilizes accuracy and anticipation to challenge windows on all three levels. Won at Clemson hanging five touchdown passes on their talented stop unit. Good escapability and can extend drives with his legs. Excellent deep ball accuracy completing 46.2 percent of his deep throws. WEAKNESSES Inconsistent delivery base causes some throws to sail. Has instances where he short strides and is forced to muscle it to his target. Will float some throws on seams and dig routes. Will have to be mindful to drive the ball on pro level to avoid the ballhawks who are lurking at safety. Has to prove he has enough arm to challenge the same tight windows he did in college. Ball handling a little sluggish in wide receiver screens, hitches and most RPOs (run, pass option). Wants to play hero-ball at times. Needs to learn when to air-mail throw and move to next play rather than trying to get too cute with sideline throws. Can improve overall touch. DRAFT PROJECTION Round 3-4 SOURCES TELL US "I like him. He made me a believer when I watched him against Clemson. I do want to see him throw live and get a feel for how the ball comes out. I never saw him in person and you can't get a feel for that stuff on tape." - NFC Director of Personnel NFL COMPARISON Kirk Cousins BOTTOM LINE Peterman's experience in a pro-style passing attack gives him a head start headed into the league. His physical attributes are just average, but his accuracy, composure and anticipation are what sets him apart from some of the more physically gifted quarterbacks in this year's draft. Peterman's tape is sure to catch the eye of at least a few teams in need of a quarterback and he should come off the board by day two with a chance to become a solid starting quarterback in the future.

I think you underestimate arm strength as part of what makes QBs effective, but I generally agree with your conclusion. I left the game after Pererman's first possession, so I didn't see his touchdown drive. I've watched the video, and that's what makes me agree with you. His pocket presence, his scanning of the field and his decisiveness all LOOKED like an NFL QB. Taylor never looked like that.

It's very simple. 60 miles per hour is 88 feet per second. 50 miles per hour is about 73 feet per second. So think about what that means. It means that for a guy who can throw 60 mph, when' he's throwing the ball 30 yards, the ball takes one second from his hand to the receiver's hands. For a guy who throws the ball 50 miles per hour, it takes the ball 1.2 seconds to get there. That means that the guy who's throwing 50 has to release the ball two tenths of a second earlier than the the guy with the better arm. That means the guy with the weaker arm has to DECIDE TO THROW two tenths of second earlier. That means the guy with the weaker arm has two tenths of second less to see whether a linebacker is dropping into coverage, a safety is closing, whatever. That's a huge difference. Well that remains to be seem. There's no question in my mind that we're going to see some rookie mistakes. But you see those from any QB. There's simply no way to know today whether Peterman will panic or be calm under pressure when he has 25 NFL games under his belt. Exactly. And some throws over the middle with quick closing windows.

Good point about what they tested at the combine. You may be right. It depends how they tested it. But to suggest it isn't important just isn't true. You know who has good awareness and throw anticipation? Ryan Fitzpatrick. His problem - he couldn't deliver the ball fast enough. He had to wind up to throw it on a line, and the NFL doesn't give you time to wind up. You're right, he does throw a nice ball. And that may be enough in the short term, especially because none of his primary receivers are deep threats. We'll see.

Interesting comments. Thanks. Particularly interesting that Peterman's number was corrected to 53. No one gave a link, but I'll take it. To say arm strength doesn't matter is just nonsense. It absolutely matters. It matters on deep balls, because the guys with weaker arms have to use their bodies more to get the ball there on time, and more body motion generally affects accuracy negatively. It also matters on the shorter line drive throws for the same reason. Pennington would have been an NFL star if he had arm strength. He was dealy accurate, and he was smart, but defenses knew he wasn't going to hurt them deep, and limited his effectiveness. Interesting comments from several of you about guys improving their arm strengthj with, I suppose, coaching, training and practice. Finally, ball velocity IS what it's all about. The higher the initial velocity, the faster the ball gets there and the longer it will go. It's basic physics. If I throw it 10% faster than you, the ball is going to go 10% farther; if we're throwing the same distance, mine will get there 10% faster.

Peterman has a lot going for him. I think his number 1 attribute may be his intelligence and decision making. The Wonderlic test presumably measures quick and accurate thinking. Peterman had a 32 on the Wonderlic, not lights out, but among the best of the QBs coming out of the last draft, and pretty good overall. Taylor had an apparently had a 15, and the biggest complaint about Taylor is decision making and a slow trigger. We'll see about that. The biggest complaint about Peterman, and something certainly worth worrying about, is arm strength. I didn't know it, but at the combine they use a radar gun to determine the release velocity of thrown footballs. Peterman was 49 mph, among the worst at the combine. The best is in the high 50s, and just about all the name guys coming out of the draft are at or above 55. So Peterman is 10-15% below where the best prospects are. Over the years, very few guys are clocked below 50. In fact, the only familiar name at the bottom of the velocity test is - Tyrod Taylor, clocked at 50. Now, Taylor's interesting to me, because arm strength has not been a problem since he came to the Bills. Did he improve his delivery and increase his delivery velocity in his four seasons at Baltimore? I don't know, but if he did, that means that Peterman's major weakness could be addressed. Brady also had a pretty poor deep ball early in his career, and he's improved that a lot. Maybe there's hope. You can see all the numbers here.

I spotted Peterman in his junior year in high school.

The stuff that Cover1 does is consistently good. Take the time to go this article. FIrst, note that it was done BEFORE Peterman was named the starter and it says that Peterman is closer to starting than you might think. Great call. Look at his discussion of the plays. It's excellent. It shows Peterman's decision making and quick trigger. It also discusses what may be Peterman's biggest problem - lack of arm strength. We'll have to live with that, but the Bills's receiving strength is short and middle, not deep, so Peterman may be a match for those receivers. Nicely done.

Not that it matters, but wouldn't they have saved the $5 million in 2018 cap if they'd traded him after the end of the season? I didn't know that you can roll cap savings forward into a future season. Anyway, we agree that the difference in cap money isn't significant - he was moved when he was moved for reasons other than the cap.

I'm sure someone else must have said this, but here goes: The players are the same as last season. The offense was good last season. The only thing that changed was coaches and the system. Explain again why the problem is the players not the coaches and the system. When the system changes the players need to change and that may be what's good about the Peterman move. But the system didn't have to change.

They game plan for guys. That's why you hear players and coaches talk about opponents by number. When a play is called in the huddle, blockers still don't know their assignments, because they don't what defensive alignment they're going to face. So they come to the line, the center calls out the blocking assignments based on the defensive alignment. Each of the blockers knows that his assignment is one thing if 99 is in front of him and it's something else if 99 isn't. There was a good SI article a couple years ago with some star left tackle who described his assignment on a particular play. His assignment depended on the alignment AND on the personnel.

In other words, on 30% of the defensive snaps, Dareus would have attracted an extra blocker. Do you think that wouldn't have made a difference? I agree, and I said that. Bills wouldn't have won with Dareus. I really don't have a problem with the trade. I'm not arguing it shouldn't have happened. All I said in the OP was that he would have attracted double teams which would have helped in the running game, because the blocker not needed on Dareus was usually all over Preston Brown, leaving no one to fill the inside running gaps.

I'm not a cap guru, but I think the cap hit the Bills are taking in 2018 would be exactly the same if they'd kept him through the end of this season. That's why I think he was a daily headache. For example, I don't know but I'd guess that McD doesn't want anyone who doesn't practice hard every day. I don't know but I'd guess that Dareus is not a great practice player.

That doesn't mean Dareus didn't make a difference. Maybe without Dareus Ajayi would have had 300. Bills wouldn't have won Sunday with Dareus in the lineup, but I'm sure he would have made a difference.

Well, I think Scott has a point. The salary dump was more important than the sixth round pick, so why not take advantage of his services for the season. You can always cut him to dump salary in 2018, and the cap hit would be there regardless of when they got rid of him. And it's hard to argue that they miss him in the middle. NO ONE ran like that against the Bills when Dareus was in the lineup. I'm guessing they traded him because McDermott didn't want to have to deal with him any more.