Shaw66

I thought I'd look at a few stats. First, in Norman's last season in Carolina, the Panthers were #1 in the league in defensive passer rating. The first season he was gone, they were 21st. In his 4 seasons in Carolina he had 36 passes defended. In his four seasons in Washington, he had 43 Passes defended (he played a half season more in Washington). He had 7 interceptions in Washington and 7 interceptions in Carolina. How much speed he's lost and how much agility he's lost is measurable, and no doubt the Bills have measured it. So although we don't have it, McBeane have it. And the most important metrics, the soft metrics that McBeane value - teamwork, leadership, competitiveness, work ethic, McBeane already know. I look at all that and think that the negative reaction about Norman really amount to two things: (1) he got a big contract and then couldn't play up to the level of the contract. That may cause some people to think that he is a bad player. (2) he shot his mouth off a lot and couldn't live up to it. This is exactly the kind of free agent signing we keep getting from Beane. He's plugging holes, not looking for star. He wants guys who can play and do their job. Every hole he plugs leaves him free to go BPA in the draft, which is his objective. Assuming they re-sign Johnson, there's a good chance they now have CB covered for 2020.

I think people are missing the point about Norman. Here's what's important: McDermott had him for four years in Carolina, and McDermott knows, for an absolute certainty, that Norman processes McDermott's defense at a high level. That is, what's going on in Norman's brain is what McDermott wants in a corner back. So the only questions are whether at this point in his career he still has the heart and sufficient physical skills to execute what he's thinking. (For most other free agent CBs, McBeane don't know if the guy can process, mentally, what McD wants.) As for the heart and the physical ability. They have watched film of Norman over the past couple of years, and they can tell from the film whether his problems were that he has lost a step. They've probably talked to him a few times in the past couple of months, and they probably think from those talks that he has the heart. So from all aspects that they can evaluate off the field, they must be pretty highly confident that he can contribute at the level McD needs. If they discover at camp that he doesn't have it, they cut him. But my guess is that they're viewing this as a relatively low-risk signing that makes their defensive backfield better than it was in 2019. I agree with BillsfanAZ

This. McD knows exactly what he can get from Norman, so signing him means the Bills are adding an important piece.

I think what Beane and McDermott do, which is different from what most of us do, is they look at the roster as fluid, multi-year proposition. We tend to look at it as a static, 2020 thing. So for example, we look the roster as current people, how they fit, and current holes. We see Oliver, Star and Harrison Phillips and we think "the Bills need a 3-technique guy." We think "the Bills have Star, they don't need another 1-tech starter." I don't think McBeane think about it that way. They are looking at getting the best players they can get and thinking about how they might fit over the next 3-4 years. So, without knowing at all what McBeane are actually thinking, and how they might value Reader, on the assumption that Reader is the kind of talent they'd like to have on the team, how he fits on the 2020 roster isn't a huge consideration. Beane isn't going to say no to Reader simply because the Bills would have too much invested in the 1-tech position in 2020. The Bills have the cap room, and question Beane is asking himself is "how does my roster look for the next 3-5 years if I sign Reader." The answer to that question probably is "I like it." Reader's fairly young and apparently a talent. Yes, "but," people say. But they already have Star, but what do they do with Harry, because he isn't a 3-tech, but it's too much money, but, but, but. I can't answer those questions, but my guess is that those questions are less troubling to McBeane than to you and me. They have a good idea of how Harry is recovering, and they have a good idea of how well he might play the the 3-tech. They understand the cap and how they want to manage it much better than we do. They clearly seem to have a good handle on what they think Star's future is and when he's going to have outlived his usefulness. So I don't think the things people are talking about here are going to stop Beane from going after Reader if they think he's the 31 1-tech guy, either this season or over the next couple of seasons as Star approaches the end of his contract, and probably his career. One other thing, which I think some people touched on: The NFL is always changing, and the coaches' jobs are too change with it. People say it's a copy cat league, but the good coaches aren't just copying what works, they're creating new things that work. We've clearly seen a resurgence of the run game in the NFL - running the ball isn't enough to win, but the pass-happy that seemed to be evolving in the NFL has created opportunities for coaches to take advantage of the run game. McBeane's response to the passing game (like a lot of coaches) has been to get more speed and quickness in the back seven. Edmunds and Milano are the primary examples, and as well as the defensive backfield depth they're always looking for. The problem with that approach is that you give up some ability to stop the run. When you don't have three old-school linebackers on the field, you're at risk of getting gashed by the run games that teams are developing. So McDermott knows he has to respond. He has to stop the pass and still not be vulnerable to the run. He needs pass rush to help him stop the pass, but d linemen who can pressure the passer also typically have give up something in the run game. The need for gap control in the run game tends to limit the pass rushing abilities of your edge rushers and your 3-tech guy. Look at Jerry Hughes - good all-round player, probably more valuable to the Bills today than he was when they acquired him. He's had to dial back his pass rush to maintain gap control. Gone are the days where he's finding any way to beat the tackle and get to the quarterback, but also gone are the days when we'd see him crashing inside while the ball carrier was sprinting untouched around the offensive left tackle. Enter the 1-tech guy. Seems to me that now that the run game has re-emerged, the 1-tech may be one of the most important positions on the field. The key to playing the defense McDermott and Frazier want may be knowing that on every play your 1-tech is going to demand a double team, and on any play when he doesn't get double teamed, the offensive isn't running up the middle. I think that's why last year we heard McBeane defending Star from time to time. The fans didn't like Star because the fans rarely saw him do anything, but that doesn't mean he wasn't doing his job and wasn't important. If I'm right about that, Reader may be more valuable to the Bills than we think. That is, if the McBeane are going to be worried about managing the lack of depth in the interior of the d-line, they may prefer to manage lack of depth at the 3-tech than the 1-tech. They can coach around the 3-tech problem more easily, cover more easily the gaps in the defense created by having Oliver and Harry be the 3-tech than cover the gaps created by having two decent but not great 1-techs in Star and Harry. Remember, McDermott very much wants his team to be strong from the inside out, and I think Bean is completely on board with that. Poyer, Hyde, Edmunds, Star, Oliver, Morse, Allen, Singletary, Gore. Their focus clearly has been up the middle. Reader wouldn't surprise, even at a price that some might think is eye-popping.

Who thinks it's a Super Bowl roster?

This is a really good point. McD is intensely analytical, and he has very well defined ideas about that he needs and where. It wouldn't surprise to learn that McD is saying to Beane exactly what you said. McD wants flexibility, and I would think he would really like to have a collection of interior D lineman who can do different things. I can see Beane spending to do it.

Right about Milano, but you got the point. And if Vosean Joseph recovers, he will be like an extra late-round pick. Absolutely about 2nd and third round. But as I was discussing with Hapless, Beane has to weigh that against the possibility of getting a great talent at a position of need, like wideout. If the wideout he wants is at 15, Beane is thinking about going up and ditching your strategy. It's question like this that Beane puts himself to in his draft preparation. He says he tries to imagine all kinds of circumstances where a guy he like he could get by moving up. And he contemplates other scenarios where no one he really likes is at 22, and he tries to think through what he'd do. I thought it was cool that in NONE of the scenarios he'd run where he did deals and got Allen did he then imagine that Edmunds would be available.

I agree with Albany. The draft isn't a crapshoot. It isn't a science, that's for sure, but a crapshoot implies that all you can do is throw darts while blindfolded. It's the same as buy stocks in the stock market. That' not a science, either, but it isn't a crapshoot. In both cases, no one gets it right all the time, but some people clearly have better yields than others. Everyone misses some opportunities, and everyone picks a bust here or there, but the best have a higher percentage of guys who work out and a lower percentage of busts. In the first round and second round, it isn't so important that you get the guy left on the board who turns out to be the very best pro. That's nice if you do it, but what's more important is to get a good pro. If you get a good pro, you've helped your team. So, in the first couple of rounds the objective really is to avoid the bust. You really hurt your team by missing in those rounds. I think good GMs are good at identifying which players are going to make it - they have a high yield in those rounds. Beane's drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver and Ford, so he looks pretty good in that category. In later rounds, the task is to identify players who, despite their flaws, have a good shot at making it. Finding the Milanos. I don't know how you do that, but some organizations are better at it than others. The McDermott's system helps out Beane in that category, because McDermott puts a very high premium on competitiveness, brains and being a team player. Those are characteristics that a GM can identify - he can know whether a guy is team player, and he can know how hard a guy works. If a player has those characteristics, he has a good shot at making a McDermott team. No one's perfect - it's a difficult process, an imperfect science, but Beane seems to be a position to be a relatively high-yield guy.

I think you and I agree in general terms - the top talent is generally at the top of the draft. That's when you average all the talent year over year. But as you point out, in any given year, what positions you find in that top level vary. I don't study the draft much at all, so I have no reason to doubt that you are correct about your assessment of wide receiver talent. Assuming that's true, then we're talking about the one situation where Beane says he will trade up - when the guy on the top of his board is standing out - that is, when Beane would take him if he had that pick and might even have taken him earlier, AND when the guy plays a position of need, then he'll consider trading up. So I agree, this could be a trade-up situation for Beane. Remember, however, that Beane also has said he uses free agency to plug holes, and his objective is to go into the draft with no positions of need, so he can just take BPA every round. So, something we already knew, Beane will be looking at free agent receivers first. If he gets one, then the trade up for a receiver goes away. And the thing that frustrates me sometimes is that if he plugs a hole with a journeyman, he won't trade up even if the guy he could get by trading up looks to be better than the free agent he signed. Once the hole is plugged, even with a good but lesser player, Beane isn't so interested in going up. The other thing that is obviously true and sometimes frustrating watching Beane is that he's patient. He and McD really buy into the notion that this is a long-term building project, and Beane seems willing to stick by his principles and keep collecting talent, the thinking being that the opportunities for an elite player will come along over time and he doesn't have to reach for them. So trading down and building talent on the roster this year is, I think, an attractive alternative for him instead of a reach for an elite talent. It has to be the right opportunity. You've described the kind of situation that is the right opportunity - a draft where a couple of top ten talents at the right position might fall to the second ten. In Beane's view, that's not a reach - that's just taking advantage of an opportunity that happened to present itself. That's exactly how he talks about the deal for Edmunds - special talent, position of need, falling to a range where Beane could afford give up draft capital to get him. It will be interesting to see. Free agency first.

Maybe 6'9".

The only place you find with any certainty elite players who can contribute right away is at the top of the first round. By the bottom of the first round you're getting guys who should be starter sooner rather later but whose value is going to be realized in their second and third years. Look at Ed Oliver. Top 10 pick and he didn't contribute right away - he played, but not in any way that made a great difference. Although the Bills actually do need more depth, what they really need is better starters at multiple positions. And they need several, not just one or two. Trading down creates an opportunity to get one more guy who has a good shot being a serious contributor over the next several seasons.

They have done it by drafting "character." They take good athletes, good football players, who want to work really hard every day and who believe in team. When your team is lousy, that works. But as you fill up your roster with those guys, at some point you need something more, you need special players. Beane's good at finding good players in the mid-rounds, but now he has to start finding better players somewhere.

I don't anything at all about the players, but I like the concept. And I think you're right about what Beane has said about where the value seems to be in the draft. There's no question the talent is better in the first round than the second - that's just a statistical reality. The difference in the talent is what matters. The special talent is generally in the top four or five, maybe up to the top 10, but after that, you aren't talking about guys who are likely All-Pro and HOF talents. You're just talking about guys who project to be very good NFL players. Those probably very good NFL players run through the bottom half of the first and through the second, and some fall to the third. So trading back from late in the first has exactly the potential you say - it increase by one the number of guys who have a good shot to make the team. If you can pick five in the top three rounds, chances are good that four make the team. Add two or three free agents, throw in a late round draftee or a free agent rookie who surprises, and you have seven to as many as ten new players on the roster. That's a big talent upgrade on a team that's pretty good already. My only argument against the trade down is this: the Bills will lose two or three important starters (Alexander, Shaq and Philips) and also really could use a starting receiver. The first round pick, even though it's relatively late in the round, offers at least a decent shot and getting a quality guy to fill one of those slots. It's tough to give that up. Maybe the better point is that this is at least the year that a trade down makes more sense than a trade up.

Well, I think Ford actually is sort of untouchable. Not untouchable in the sense that he was just so awesome last season that there's no way the Bills should consider trading him. Almost anyone can be traded. He's untouchable in that the Bills invested a lot of time studying the guy and were so convinced about him that they traded up for him. He had his struggles in 2019, but offensive linemen coming out of college are notoriously underprepared for the NFL and almost all of them need time to learn how to play the oline in the NFL. So unless the Bills saw something that made them think they made a three-base error drafting him, they are not going to trade him after his rookie season. Their entire philosophy is premised on identifying talent and character and then growing guys into the players they want. They won't quit on their own guys quickly. As is often the case, I'm not saying that that is the smartest philosophy. I'm saying it's McBeane's philosophy. I think it's best to unload young talent a year too late instead of a year too early. Talent is hard to come by. A guy like Ford obviously has superior physical tools, tools that aren't easy to find. You hold on to guys like that and give them every chance to learn and develop, because the next guy you get probably won't have those tools. The Colts gave up on Jerry Hughes, a first round pick, after three years, and THAT was too early. Unless Ford is a cancer in the locker room, he shouldn't be traded. UNLESS something happens like the Eagles calling and asking if you're interested in LeSean McCoy. When you get that call, pretty much your whole roster is under consideration. So, for example, if the Panthers actually are trying to deal McCaffrey and the guy they really want is Ford, well, then he's touchable.

I would rank the four pairs differently. I've been waiting and hoping for MIihaels to retire for years. Nantz, Tirico and Buck are seriously good play by play men. All four commentators are good. Tirico left ESPN because he understood Michaels was going to retire and he'd get the Sunday night gig. Somehow Michaels didn't retire.

Well, I don't know anything at all about Dillard except what's posted here. If there's any truth to the rumor - Dillard and Jeffries on the block as a package - it's a very unusual situation. And it's a situation that the Bills are in position to take advantage of. I'm not a Jeffries fan, but he probably could play a role in the receiving corps. A first-round left tackle talent is always on the shopping list. There would have to be some questions answered first, because you don't see first round picks getting traded like this. Bills have the cap room to eat Jeffries contract and still get some benefit from him. Still, I'd say it's pretty unlikely.

This statement misses the point of what Beane has said. Beane has been very clear about how he handles the draft. First, at the top of the draft, the first couple of rounds, he is strictly best player available. Period. Need doesn't enter into it, except with one exception: when he has a position of great need AND the best player available meets the need, he might trade up for the guy. When he talks about the depth of a class, he's talking about the fact that after the first and second rounds, he may be inclined to consider need. When he's considering players in that range, if the draft is deep at his position of need, he may wait a round to get someone. His reasoning is that except in unusual circumstances, the guy he takes in round three should help over time but isn't going to be a star. In the draft is deep in the position, the guy he takes in the fourth round, albeit not as good as the guy he could have gotten in the third, is still going to be good enough to help but also won't be a star. Since neither guy is likely to be a star, he won't feel quite so much pressure to take the one who looks better. On the other hand, if the draft is shallow at a position of need, he's going to me more inclined in the mid to late rounds to take the guy who's available now at that position, because he is unlikely to last to the next round, and there's no one else comparable who's likely to be there. So, as for receivers, the only way Beane is trading up into round one to get one is if he sees a guy who is the best player left on the board and who will not last to the second round. Then, maybe, Beane's going up. But the guy's got to be special. Beane's not trading up just because receiver is a position of need.

Way down the road, I agree. What comes through in the interview is that Beane is one tough, hungry dude. When he wants something, he goes after it. I remember an article about him when he first arrived in Buffalo. He mentioned in the interview that when he was senior in high school, he had a torn ACL and couldn't play basketball. The school let him coach the 8th grade team. In the article, it said that in his first game as coach, he got two technical fouls in the first 20 SECONDS and got tossed from the game! Intense.

Yeah, I listened. I liked it. Beane sounded to me like a guy who's always going to look for another mountain to climb. I can imagine 6-7 years from now, Bills have won a Super Bowl or two, he's already made more money than he ever imagined,, and some historic franchise comes calling, like Packers, Giants, Cowboys, Steelers, and offers him the opportunity to rebuild the franchise to its former glory. Beane could be perfectly happy in Buffalo, but I can imagine him being tempted by the challenge. McDermott, if the team is successful, will have a long career in Buffalo. For Beane to stay, I think two things have to happen - continuing success and attachment to the Pegulas. The Bills family ties will have to be strong to hold him.

The question is whether they'll stick together if they have success. Beane might want another challenge. The size of the checks the Pegulas are willing to write to each may have something to do with it.

I learned a lot about Beane in it, and about their view of the 2018 contract situation. Also Wood talking about how players react when jerks get extended.

I don't disagree that the Bills need to better play out of the bottom of the roster. No question at all. They need better play out of several starting positions. Where I think you're wrong, and where McDermott clearly thinks you're wrong, is that the player you see by the end of his rookie or even second year is the player you'll see after four years. Yes, some things, like size and speed, can't change, but most players in the NFL need to learn a lot before they're effective. Look at Ed Oliver. Supremely talented. He didn't become effective until late in his rookie season, and he's a top 10 pick. There's a lot to learn in the NFL. Plenty of guys who start in the NFL didn't even make a roster coming out of college - they spend a year or two on practice squads, learning and developing. A lot of things go into that learning and development, and one of the things that causes that development is competition. So, I think it's foolish to assume that Foster/McKenzie/Williams have no future. I agreed completely that the 2019 versions of those guys are not good enough to fill out a really competitive roster, but if they are like a lot of players, they are still learning and developing as NFL players. The question isn't whether the 2019 version is going to make the roster; the question is whether the 2020 version will make it. There are guys around the league who are contributing wideouts who didn't do much their first couple of years. Curtis Samuel at Carolina. Russell Gage in Atlanta. Alex Erickson, Cincinnati. They aren't guys going to the Pro BOwl, but back up receivers never do. But those guys each were in the league for a few years before they caught 50 passes last season. We all tend to think that what we saw in a player last season is what we're going to get next season. It isn't true in all cases. You can respond that in your opinion, these guys aren't going to get any better, and you're entitled to your opinion. But at least in the case of Williams and Foster, these guys have some NFL-caliber skills, and I think it's foolish to assume that they can't contribute more in 2020 than in 2019. That doesn't mean that my plan is to go into training camp with those guys as the favorites for the 3-4-5 receiver spot on the roster - I want someone who projects to be better, and McBeane do too. What it means is that I'm prepared to be pleasantly surprised if one of those three emerge as a better contributor in 2020 than 2019.

I'm sorry. I must have missed it. Who said that they were counting on going into next season counting on Foster/McKenzie/Duke to be real contributors? They aren't "sounting on anything." McDermott's system is to go to camp and let them compete. The guys who emerge as the best players make the team. What I said is that the year-to-year improvement in players makes guys who weren't very useful last season useful in the next. Foster has speed, McKenzie has quickness and Foster has competitiveness, each a characteristic that, with improvement in other areas, might make them useful. Young players improve, and they improve with competition. Those realities are at the core of what McDermott does. What's foolish is to ignore that reality.

I expect there will be a lot of replacements, and they all will be improvements. But I also thing you're too quick to judge and dismiss existing players. Players improve, especially in their first three or four years. Maybe not running backs that much, because it's more of an instinctive position than most others, but just about all the other position players can improve over their college and rookie seasons. McDermott's system is based on driving improvement and, as he's said, having players become the best version of themselves. You talk about players not becoming more talented, as though all that matters is their combine numbers. Offensive linemen, particularly, are undercoached in college - it takes them years in some cases to master the schemes they need in the pros. That has nothing to do with their quickness or agility; it has to do with what they understand about the game and whether they can learn the mental processing that's necessary to be effective. Defensive backs improve over seasons, as they study and learn more. Competition helps drive that learning and development. So, for example, I wouldn't be so quick to give up on the receiving corps behind the two starters. I wouldn't give up yet on Duke or McKenzie or Foster. They each bring some natural talents to the table that can be useful, if other aspects of their games improve. Duke was, in some ways, a rookie last season, so he could show some real improvement in year two. Tyler Lockett went four seasons in the league at 50 catches a year, then had 82 catches and 1000 yards last season. Do I expect them to emerge? No, probably not, because next to running back, receiver may be the most instinctive position, but I wouldn't count them out. None of us knows what Foster or Duke has been doing for the past several months to improve on particular aspects of their games. None of us knows how one or two years experience in the McDermott system will help them to make a jump in year three. And, for that matter, none of us knows how they will react when real competition appears on the scene. After all, and odd as it sounds, a guy like McKenzie was more or less a lock to make the team last season, because there was no credible back-up punt returner and no one who had shown the ability to run the jet sweep as he did. How will he respond this summer when there's a guy in camp threatening to take his roster spot from him? Maybe he folds and goes away, but maybe he rises. The whole point of having position competition is to bring out the best in players, and maybe competition actually will make McKenzie or Foster better. However it plays out, there will be better players on the roster come September, because several guys coming out of out the draft and free agency will outfight returning players for jobs. I expect five or six or seven new starters. I expect one or two new starters on the offensive line, and someone new at the third wideout position (and I'd count Duke as someone new, since he didn't play much at all last season). I expect a couple new faces on the defensive line rotation, certainly one new linebacker, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a new face or two in the defensive backfield rotation. There might be a safety pushing Poyer or Hyde for playing time, and there'll be a lot of competition for the number 2 corner and the nickel back. It's going to be intense, and the Bills will get better as a result.

If they lose the wildcard in 2020, it won't be "year after year," it will be two years. (2017 was an accident.) I wasn't blaming the Pegulas for Marrone. I was pointing out their lives as NFL owners prior to the arrival of McBeane were tumultuous. They inherited a coach who didn't want to be there, then they hired the wrong guy. My point was after you'd lived through that, as an owner you value the peace and quiet and even relative success you're having. Having said that, I think your timing on an extension is correct.